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Boy, if there was any doubt the current administration wasn't our friend, there shouldn't now. And folks still think the gov't won't exercise the warrants ... create the forbidden windfall for NEW shareholders ... and forever contest court cases? Truly UFB.
Looks like this is not going to be the hoped-for silver bullet for the economy: https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/15/health/new-french-study-hydroxychloroquine/index.html
stay safe, shadow
golf, couldn't make the call, REALLY appreciate the recap, great work
fence, appreciate the link ... and you are correct ... what I find interesting is that I cannot find any articles where doctors/nurses are complaining about their exclusion ... I realize most are forbidden to speak out against their employer ... but they are NOT forbidden to speak out against their governor ... maybe they understand the risks better than the rest of us (aka idiots?) ... or, maybe, the prophylactic benefits are even far less proven than the (hopefully) therapeutic ones? ... cheers, shadow
PS something to be grateful for ... I probably won't be back to the board again until we get the next major court decision ... and who knows when that will be
no disagreement on trying it for severely ill CV patients and/or others after proper medical screening ... and still waiting for your link re Cuomo ... cheers, shadow
fence, i worked in biotech for 30 years ... saw many, many phase II trials with a few hundred patients generate incredibly encouraging results ... only to fail in phase III trial many thousands of patients ... not arguing ... just stating facts ... I totally agree it is ethically sound to let potentially millions of severely sick patients try the treatment ... and those result will let us know if it is safe AND effective for many millions more take it ... btw, if you are seeing a cardiologist, you may want to check with them before trying out the treatment ... just sayin ... cheers, shadow
altruism, great article ... but with important caveat ... first, the p values are incredibly low (= good), so even with just 62 patients, the results are solidly statistically significant ... however ... with just 62 patient, its impossible to predict how well the treatment will work when administered to many more people ... humans are a VERY heterogeneous group biologically ... so, just like the AIDS/STEP trial fiasco, you just don't know when something works well for a small group, then totally fails in a larger group ... personally, still waiting for results from MANY THOUSANDS of patients ... cheers, shadow
fence, the promise of HCQ + Zpack for Covid-19 is still anecdotal, but hopefully the recently started large clinical trial will provide reliable data soon. Meanwhile, everyone needs to understand that something that works for one disease, could be catastrophic for another. Biology is unimaginably complex and the law of unintended consequences is king. For example, an INCREDIBLY promising AIDS vaccine was found to actually make people MORE susceptible to HIV (the virus that causes AIDS), so the trial (called STEP) was quickly stopped:
http://www.natap.org/2008/newsUpdates/020108_02.htm
Merck halted a study, called STEP, in September after an unanticipated finding: people who got the vaccine were more likely to contract HIV than those who didn't.
BTW, I would be interested in seeing your source for your comment below if a link is available. Many thanks, shadow
ano, many thanks for the in-depth reply ... now I need to get to work and digest it!!! thanks again, shadow
I thought the remand came from the en banc ruling, so if gov't doesn't like resulting decision from 5th on remand, can't they appeal to SCOTUS? tia
every time i see folks get excited about exiting cship, i'm reminded of the story of Mother McCray ... two gents are riding down the road and see a huge sign for Mother McCray's whore house ... most beautiful women! ... lovely rooms! ... reasonable prices! ... they finally arrive ... see the stunning women ... pay for the "rooms" ... and are told to go through the door on the other side of the lobby ... they are so excited, they run to the door, fling it open and charge through ... only to find that they are standing outside in front of a big sign that says "Congratulations! You have just been screwed by Mother McCray" ...
ano, always appreciate your posts ... two questions ... are you saying warrants will effectively be voided (or bought back for a nominal sum)? ... and, given how long it take the gov't to do anything, and that the election is Nov 4, how in the world will the gov't get through your to-do in less than a year or longer? ... TIA
Devils advocate ... I'm beginning to think that this admin is worried that Ps have a LOT of leverage which may force a huge settlement - and that will make POTUS look like he is the biggest loser ever, even though NWS, SPSA and warrants preceded him ... and that would look very bad just before election ... so there may be no down side for admin to delay, delay, delay until after election IF THEY CAN ... if POTUS gets re-elected and gov't wins, POTUS is golden (saved tax payers from greedy HF) ... if gov't loses, POTUS can settle with no re-election risk and blame courts and predecessors ... if POTUS loses re-election, well then, he will have much bigger problems
So, regardless of upcoming SCOTUS decisions, can this be delayed after Nov 4?
yanks, were you replying to me? ... in case in wasn't clear, I was agreeing with you ... thanks
yes, perfect quip, sums up pretty much everything that has happened ... kind of like when victims are accused of being the perpetrator ... I guess we had it coming because we were guilty
nice recap, many thanks
chess, i was being totally factitious ... been here since pre-cship and have learned just a thing or two about delays ;) cheers
So Sweeney waited for SCOTUS ... and now SCOTUS is waiting for??? ...
winner LSU/Clemson? ... the Oscars? ... Punxsutawney Phil? ... POTUS to go vegan? ... Bueller? ... Bueller? ...
I thought Joe was wondering about an alternate settlement where the NWS funds are returned to FnF, but then the SPS is converted into common, no? That would dilute common by some significant amount, but in exchange our capital account should go up by the amount of the NWS refund, right? And IF that is correct, then the question would be if the impact of that scenario is better or worse than retiring the SPS and having to dilute common to raise an equivalent amount of capital (assuming we need that much), correct?
Many thanks to all the posters who really strive to make fact-based contributions and eschew the type of hype from the pump-and-dump emoji gang. Special props to Obi and Aon for their willingness to invest countless hours in trying to help us understand this mess. cheers, shadow
On the lighter side ... just saw John Mulaney's "There's a Horse Loose in the Hospital" piece ... it might just sum up what we can (or can't) expect from Trump re FnF ...
Why can't everyone understand that the Rs tried to steal FnF for Wall Street (via deceivership) ... and the Ds tried to steal FnF for OBcare/Congress (via NWS). Is one pathetic thief better than the other?
JC is a pathetic liar who is part of Infowars - believed by many to be one of the most vile and disgusting collections human scum, ever.
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/briannasacks/infowars-news-director-says-sandy-hook-conspiracy-theories
Yes!!! How dare they fabricate a phony take-over via deceivership!!!
Oh, what, the dems didn't orchestrate the dship?
Never mind.
Rosanna Anna Danna
chess, completely agree ... I do feel for those that are mislead (imo) into believing RRR is both "imminent" and a 5-bagger or more ... as you say, both could happen ... but both could also be a long way off ... icing on the cake would be the release of the 11K docs ... would love to see what the thieves, I mean gov't, are hiding ... cheers
the incessant pumpers will be right ... some day ... maybe ... but in the meantime ... the misguided souls who don't know better (you know, the market) are in control ... belittle them if you must ... ignore them if you dare ... the greed, corruption and power fueling this theft are unimaginably deep and wide ... there will be nothing simple, or quick, about the final resolution
Does Sweeney's ruling impact Wash Fed case?
Confused
with you 1000%
So instant recap means no additional SPO dilution, right?, so the net net dilution with SPS conversion + instant recap might be better for common ... but you ran the numbers, yes?
Sent this to the author of the inquirer piece (joed@inquirer.com). He was grateful for the feedback - and didn't feel he was being courageous (I hope he's right).
Barrario, thanks for sharing ... and I just wrote the author a thank you note. cheers
amen ... OTC ... Obviously Totally Corrupt ...
So, just to confirm, the gov't cannot appeal Sweeney's decision to go to trial - only way to avoid a trial is settlement before hand? TIA
I didn't take their comments as predictions, rather, just pointing out an existing, maybe obvious justification for a gov't appeal ... i was the one who infallibly predicted the consequences ; ) ...
Well, based on Obit and ROLG's comments about waiting to see Sweeney opinion re allowing derivative claims that otherwise seem prohibited by 4617, I'm not expecting much tmrw. Yes, Sweeney's comments are very encouraging, but gov't past MO strongly suggests they will appeal ... appeal = delay = more uncertainty = downward pressure on pps ... would love to be wrong (which should be a slam dunk given that I'v held since pre-cship!)
robertus, I don't have twitter account, so many thanks for posting.
Anybody have any ideas while settlement window closes July 15, 2020? TIA
Can't wait to see ...
- how they attract new investors if they screw existing ones and/or can't settle with major plaintiffs
- how they can maximize warrant value if they suppress share price
- how they can support affordable housing if they impose draconian capital requirements
- how the rule of law can survive if SCOTUS lets the nws survive
- how a fair trial can occur without revealing the 11K docs
- how the original cship terms survive if the 11K docs are revealed
and, most importantly, I can't wait to see if this gets resolved before many more of us shareholders pass away ...
in other words, having something in common is usually preferred - amen to that!
Ok, looks like you've got a pretty solid handle on the situation. Many thanks for your perspective.
NORC, thanks ... relevant part: