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the supreme court was established in 1789 ... the life expectancy at that time? ... 35 ; ) ... oh yeah, we are WAY overdue for an update ...
"... the warrants and NWS are voided ..." ... and today's top story, hell froze over ... just kidding ... I think we would all be thrilled ... at least those of us that are still alive by then ... cheers!
depends on what you mean by free and clear ... if neither the nws nor warrants are voided, then they would hardly be back to where they were by cship in 2008
yes, but too many think release will automatically be good for current shareholders ... that might be true for those lucky/smart enough to buy under $5 (or $4? ... or $3?), but for those of us who hold pre-cship shares, that will be the ultimate mockery of the rule of law ... under the professed rule of law king ... since I wrote this off financially long ago (but not emotionally!), I'm holding this hand until the bitter end ... and, as some would say ... this is not investment advice (ha! says the resident fool!)
So our enemy proposes capital requirements that are so excessive that they could thwart the entire RRR effort and/or seriously raise g-fees that would force business to less capitalized competitors and undermine affordable housing ... oh, wait ... MC is our friend?!?!? ...
excellent comment ... thought about doing that many times over the past 12 years ... but NEVER expected to be screwed so royally by courts ... the 50K I bought recently lowered by cost basis from $6/pre-cship to $3.85 now ... and I think the markets will correctly heavily in the next 12 months ... so I'll wait to hopefully see us go above $5 ... sure, that's a double+ from here, but a pathetic outcome if what I'm afraid will happen, happens ... meanwhile, I await to see any ACTIONS that support a more optimistic scenario ...
look, I hold 100K common (50K from 8/08) and really want this to work out ... but what facts are you aware of that suggest the warrants won't be exercised and the gov't isn't out to screw us? ... my pessimistic opinion is based on known facts (suggested capital requirement, continued fighting against our law suits, dismissal of wash fed suit, possible one year delay for SCOTUS Collins decision, failure to release hidden docs, etc.) ... I DO believe FnF are LIKELY to be released, eventually, but I have ALWAYS said that outcome may also lead to massive dilution ... the dilution you mentioned suggests the warrants are not exercised ... but, sadly, the warrants maybe the ONLY thing that tempers ADDITIONAL dilution by the gov't ... though even that's not reassuring as they gov't may not give a hoot about additional dilution if they get to keep the NWS on top of their f'ing 80% windfall ... so, any facts you care to share?
ok, then pps will remain low without definitive, final, favorable ruling that effectively eliminates gov't overhang ... the point is that the government - which right now means the current administration - is our big problem ... and, all of their ACTIONS scream SCREW THE SHAREHOLDERS ... it has been PROVEN that the NWS was a scam, and they still can't even end that battle ... why folks can't see that this admin is a major threat to us is really beyond me
call it what you want, but the MARKET is speculating/expecting/anticipating/worrying that the warrants WILL be exercised, roughly adding 4.8B shares to the existing 1.16B ... and that's dilution before any raise needed to meet potentially absurd capital requirements
Price will remain low until we get a definitive, FINAL court ruling in our favor. Why? Well, we have an administration that MIGHT be moving us toward release, but has given us no reason to think we won't be diluted into oblivion (warrants, absurd capital requirements ... jps conversion??) and has fought us tooth and nail in the courts because, you know, they need cover to do the right thing ... like releasing the thousands of hidden docs wouldn't provide enough cover. Rule of law country my ass ...
amelia43, day trading is ... but day trading and making money seems to be limited to a VERY exclusive group ...
1) 80% of all day traders quit within the first two years. 1
2) Among all day traders, nearly 40% day trade for only one month.
3) Within three years, only 13% continue to day trade. After five years, only 7% remain. 1
4) Traders sell winners at a 50% higher rate than losers. 60% of sales are winners, while 40% of sales are losers.2
4) The average individual investor underperforms a market index by 1.5% per year. Active traders underperform by 6.5% annually. 3
5) Day traders with strong past performance go on to earn strong returns in the future. Though only about 1% of all day traders are able to predictably profit net of fees. 1
6) Traders with up to a 10 years negative track record continue to trade. This suggests that day traders even continue to trade when they receive a negative signal regarding their ability. 1
7) Profitable day traders make up a small proportion of all traders – 1.6% in the average year. However, these day traders are very active – accounting for 12% of all day trading activity. 1
8)Among all traders, profitable traders increase their trading more than unprofitable day traders. 1
9) Poor individuals tend to spend a greater proportion of their income on lottery purchases and their demand for lottery increases with a decline in their income. 4
10) Investors with a large differential between their existing economic conditions and their aspiration levels hold riskier stocks in their portfolios. 4
11) Men trade more than women. And unmarried men trade more than married men. 5
12) Poor, young men, who live in urban areas and belong to specific minority groups invest more in stocks with lottery-type features. 5
13) Within each income group, gamblers underperform non-gamblers. 4
14) Investors tend to sell winning investments while holding on to their losing investments. 6
15) Trading in Taiwan dropped by about 25% when a lottery was introduced in April 2002. 7
16) During periods with unusually large lottery jackpot, individual investor trading declines. 8
17) Investors are more likely to repurchase a stock that they previously sold for a profit than one previously sold for a loss. 9
18) An increase in search frequency [in a specific instrument] predicts higher returns in the following two weeks. 10
19) Individual investors trade more actively when their most recent trades were successful.11
20) Traders don’t learn about trading. “Trading to learn” is no more rational or profitable than playing roulette to learn for the individual investor.1
21) The average day trader loses money by a considerable margin after adjusting for transaction costs.
22) [In Taiwan] the losses of individual investors are about 2% of GDP.
23) Investors overweight stocks in the industry in which they are employed.
24) Traders with a high-IQ tend to hold more mutual funds and larger number of stocks. Therefore, benefit more from diversification effects.
Conclusion: Why Most Traders Lose Money Is Not Surprising Anymore
After going over these 24 statistics it’s very obvious to tell why traders fail. More often than not trading decisions are not based on sound research or tested trading methods, but on emotions, the need for entertainment and the hope to make a million dollars in your underwear. What traders always forget is that trading is a profession and requires skills that need to be developed over years. Therefore, be mindful about your trading decisions and the view you have on trading. Don’t expect to be a millionaire by the end of the year, but keep in mind the possibilities trading online has.
chess, just curious ... what do you think about Biden's reported very close relationship to Gary Hindes (who has been outspoken about the brazen theft of FnF by the gov't)?
well, let's see how the justices rule before we conclude that granting cert was a good thing ... it is possible that we could get prospective relief on the "at will" issue ... and nothing else ... will you thank our savior then (after failing to end this nightmare for over 3.5 years)?
Totally disagree ...
Its actually been maybe THE worst stock to own over the past 12 years!
SCOTUS on reversing unlawful taking of land from Indians in Oklahoma: "Unlawful acts, performed long enough and with sufficient vigor, are never enough to amend the law,” wrote Justice Neil M. Gorsuch ...
We could only be so lucky ...
I know folks can stay sexually active late into life, but isn't 80 a little late for most folks to start having affairs? ... ; )
I think the booms were the sound of people's hopes getting shattered (over and over and over again ...)
Many thanks for the info and keeping it real
And while I'm venting ... isn't it f'ing unbelievable that our gov't (including the Fed) has spent TRILLIONS!!!!!!!!!! to support for-profit companies during a crisis without taking some of their equity, much less 80 f'ing percent. I know some of you like to blame Obama for the NWS, which of course was a total sham, but the REAL theft was the 10% non-repayable advances and, FAR WORSE, the warrants. Some excuse Bush for the theft because the warrants haven't been exercised ... yet ... but don't you understand that we would be well into double digit pps right now if the warrants didn't exist?!?! And what will you say when the warrants do get exercised? ... that the gov't was entitled to 80% of two of the most profitable, stable and essential financial companies in the world?
No, it wouldn't surprise me, but I will be incredibly angry that our country that espouses how great we are because of our adherence to the rule of law - and a supposed beacon for capitalism - completely TRAMPLED on shareholder rights in the face of proven lying ... even without the other 11K docs. I could even accept that the gov't took over FnF to BAILOUT the TBTFB and avoid an even worse crisis ... but then we should have been compensated for the taking. With very few exceptions, we have been let down by judges in an unimaginable way ... beginning with the decision that the conservator did NOT have to preserve and conserve the assets because HERA says they "may" do so, not "must". So with conserving assets deemed optional, and receivership too complicated, they just stole the companies in plain sight. I wonder how many investors have died, or suffered tremendous financial harm, while our own f'ing gov't AND judges denied us justice for 12 f'ing years and counting. Sorry, just needed to vent.
Yeah, maybe ... but if they do ...
Dear prospective recap investors, SCOTUS just codified that your gov't can, under totally false pretenses, take a highly profitable company away from shareholders without any recourse. Now, to place your order for recap shares, please call our toll free number 800-BND-OVER ... but wait! ... don't call yet ... you'll also get a Ginsu knife ...
So, because a court MIGHT force the cancellation of the warrants you say the theft didn't occur? Really? Tell that to the thousands of thieves locked up in jail where the stolen goods were recovered. BTW, I am 100K shs long and hope a miracle happens and the warrants are cancelled - but I and, apparently, the rest of the investing world, don't think that is likely, but good luck with your investment thesis.
maybe, but so far everything I've read/seen over the past 12 f'ing years points to the NWS being more reversible than the warrants ... would LOVE to be wrong with my now 100K common shs! (had 50K and added another 50K when it dropped below $2). cheers
So one day Big Al says "It's your lucky day ... you gonna give me 80% of your business and, since I'm such a nice guy, I'm gonna let you keep 20%, capiche?" A few weeks later, Bugsy shows up and says "Hey, I don't want you to fall into a death spiral, so I'm gonna take the remaining 20%". You finally get a chance to call the cops ... "Hey, I've been robbed!! A guy named Bugsy just stole 20% of my business right when I was about to make lots of money". The cop replies "That's awful ... at least they didn't get the other 80%, right? ... hello? ... hello? ..."
Ok, so stealing the remaining 20% under the NWS is far more egregious than first stealing 80% + 10% NON-REPAYABLE draws under the cship? I guess that makes sense when the first thing you heard is your head hitting the floor ...
Yep, D's stole 20% and claimed "death spiral" - unforgivable!
R's stole 80% and claimed "insolvent" ... then DT's admin used every legal maneuver over past 3+ years to crush plaintiff's claims and just released cap requirements that will cause massive addt'l dilution or, possibly, crater the whole RRR - also unforgivable!
so both looted us blind ... who says bipartisanship is dead?
80% Warrants/Bush
20% NWS/Obama (yes, 100% of profits, but gov't already has 80% claim)
100%
Personally, I think both parties have been a disaster for FnF, but to say the Dems have been worse just doesn't seem to match up with the math
Republicans stole 80% with cship
Democrats stole 20% with NWS
So what again is the elephant in the room? ...
well, I feel sorry for anyone who things DT doesn't have any idea of what's going on ... FnF are only two of the largest financial institutions in the world whose RRR could involve one of the largest settlements EVER , cost the gov't $100B+ and occur on DT's watch ... oh, and did i mention it impacts real estate? ... or does DT not know anything about real estate?
I feel sorry for anyone who thinks MC has been acting contrary to DT's wishes, but now will go pro-FnF just because he can be fired at will.
yeah, kind of makes a taking under the 5th moot
selia = nothing burger ... and pps still in coma as predicted
based on what I (mis?)understand ... yeah, unconstitutional ... change "for cause" to "at will" ... prospective relief only ... up OR down a few pennies ...
Amen!
oh, so the R's stole 80% of FnF (cship), the D's stole the remaining 20% (NWS) ... and then the rule-of-law king, an R, couldn't figure out how to, well, restore the rule of law in almost 4 years? Yeah, go R's in 2020!!! ...
blaming mc is like convicting the hand that held a gun in a stick up ... unless the hand is Thing from the Addams family ...
exposing the docs would show the incredible deceit used to rob FnF blind, in broad daylight, under BOTH the Bush (cship) and Obama (NWS) administrations ... so no wonder they haven't seen the light of day yet ... really our only hope is in the courts ... and it still remains to be seen if they have the courage to do the right thing
thanks ... i would have said that congress would want the $100B from the warrants regardless of who wins in nov, but so many billions and trillions are being thrown around these days, i'm not so sure any more ...
re trump, i just can't figure out what his real end game is ... short-term, its obviously re-election (which avoids embarrassment and, potentially delays/weakens legal action against him personally) ... long-term, my default answer would be for him to line his pockets ($ is the only legacy he cares about) ... but i just can't figure out how he uses FnF to achieve either one of those
Gov't is in so many conflicted positions:
- hurt value of commons = hurt value of warrants
- SCOTUS fire-at-will remedy win for gov't in FnF, but lose ability to shutter CFPB
- release 11K docs to expose NWS theft by D's ... but expose cship theft by R's
- high capital requirements reduce risk of future gov't take over and silence congress ... but increase g-fees, reduce affordable housing, possibly sink re-cap plan ... and possibly increase competition (level playing field?) with bank-like cap requirements
- fair settlement protects rule of law ... but enrages congress (hedge fund windfall, moral hazard and loss of NWS piggy bank!)
Yep, see statement at end of list (below) stating that filing requirements continue for all other securities:
Common Stock, without par value
8.25% Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock, Series T, stated value $25 per share
Fixed-to-Floating Rate Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock, Series S, stated value $25 per share
7.625% Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock, Series R, stated value $25 per share
6.75% Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock, Series Q, stated value $25 per share
Variable Rate Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock, Series P, stated value $25 per share
Variable Rate Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock, Series O, stated value $50 per share
5.375% Non-Cumulative Convertible Series 2004-1 Preferred Stock, stated value $100,000 per share
5.50% Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock, Series N, stated value $50 per share
4.75% Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock, Series M, stated value $50 per share
5.125% Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock, Series L, stated value $50 per share
5.375% Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock, Series I, stated value $50 per share
5.81% Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock, Series H, stated value $50 per share
Variable Rate Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock, Series G, stated value $50 per share
Variable Rate Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock, Series F, stated value $50 per share
5.10% Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock, Series E, stated value $50 per share
5.25% Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock, Series D, stated value $50 per share
(Titles of all other classes of securities for which a duty to file reports under section 13(a) or 15(d) remains)