Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
JosephS, I don't follow your reply at all ...
- I do my own research, have read zillions of pages of court and sec filings, countless articles, posts, etc.
- what stock sale are your referring to (the warrants? ... "IPO" shares?)
- the only repayment I think/hope will happen is the reversal of the NWS and return of the over payment
- I would love the warrants to vanish or be bought back cheap, just don't think that is going to happen
- if you've read any of my post, I've been extremely conservative in my expectations ... and even joked about believing we'll have a large turkey for Thanksgiving (i.e., value of FnF), but have no idea how many folks are coming for dinner (i.e. # shares/dilution)
Look, I try to keep up as best I can, but if you find my posts are not your cup of team, just put me on ignore ... the world has enough bad apples and stress and I certainly don't want to add any more to that ... cheers, shadow
First, I can't find anything in the PSPA the forbids repayment of draws (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1026214/000102621408000030/f67154exv10w1.htm) ... so it still looks like I was mistaken and that the NWS was when the draws became non-repayable (not when PSPA was signed)
Also, if we think an administration cooked the books and twisted the narrative for the NWS, that is certainly no worse than the administration that forced FnF into cship, took our votes away, imposed a 10% loan rate and stole 80% of our company ... I get it that most investors bought in after cship so they are focused on the NWS ... but the real theft, and threat to the rule of law and property rights, was the cship
Robert, I think you are correct ... couldn't find anything in the SPSPA stating draws were not repayable ... thanks for setting me straight ... 12 years of stress and waiting ... guess its caught up with me ... thanks again
thanks for sharing ... just wait ... the failure of additional stimulus, and continued outbreaks, will together push things down further ... but, hey, as long as the fed feeds the addiction to cheap money and props up the market, all must be good ... remember, we just had a 5-sigma event and NO ONE knows how this will unfold ... who knows, maybe the gulf will be hit by back-to-back hurricanes ... naw, could never happen ...
wasn't that essentially the same as the original usurious 10% rate and non-repayable draws
A few thoughs:
- Is it true for the FnF issues before SCOTUS that P's are only requesting reversal of NWS?
- IF yes to above, would SCOTUS void HERA as a remedy not requested by P's (assuming the question is not made moot if ACA voided beforehand)?
- If ACA not voided, and SCOTUS voids NWS (only) as retro scalpel remedy (either because that's all P's sought and/or SCOTUS does so because it violated APA requirements), does the voiding of the NWS set a precedent that new P's can use to challenge the cship itself IF it can be demonstrated FnF never met the cship threshold provisions (i.e. HERA survives, but a 2nd scalpel becomes possible)? ... or do we run into a statute of limitations problem again?
Many thanks for the great posts!
Amen to that!
Top reasons that receivership is inevitable ... and imminent ...
- no one would sue ... absolutely ... no ... one ...
- the gov't made enough $ off of the NWS, so they could care less about the value of their warrants (poof!)
- rship would look great on DT resume!
- the housing and mortgage market wouldn't care!
- affordable housing advocates in Congress will breath a collective sigh of relief!
- liquidating $6T in assets will be a snap!
- we had a Depression and a Great Recession, so it must be time for the Great Depression!
We now return you to your regularly scheduled Saturday morning ;)
Really appreciate all of the articles/comments/letters shared by posters ... did not see the warrants mentioned in any of them ... did I miss it? ... it still seems to me only chance of voiding warrants is SCOTUS ruling that HERA is unconstitutional in toto ... Robert asked me what I thought would happen in that scenario ... well, if EVERYTHING was unwound?? ... how could that not be good? ... though wouldn't their fate then be in the hands of their former regulator? ... truth is I don't think there is any real chance warrants will be voided or sold back for anything reasonable ... really just hoping for $10+ before my time is over ... would like to have something to leave to my kids ... peace
Do you ever wonder how in the world did the authors of HERA leave out a severability clause? ... I mean, how could they be clever enough to write that the conservator "may" conserve assets instead of "must" or "shall" (thank you, Judge Lamberth), but overlook a severability clause?
yeah, you're right! ... he should have used an emjoi of a choo choo train careening off the tracks ...
First was the NWS? Oh contraire ... first was the cship, the 10% NON-repayable draw and the mother of all thefts - the warrants ... too bad we didn't have more, well funded pre-cship plaintiffs ... we're now down to hoping that a miracle occurs by SCOTUS invalidating FHFA in toto ... and, sorry Repubs, we have Bush and H Paulson to thank for that one
OTC manipulation and the govt's secret plan to take care of existing shareholders (psst, not really, but don't tell that to the choo choo crowd who have been spot on for years ...)
Based on what I've read, I think #3 is most likely as well ... it will be retro relief, but limited to APA/NWS only ... however, will the retro relief provide (addt'l?) precedent that could be used by other plaintiffs to challenge the warrants ... or the cship itself? ... in other words, wouldn't it be arbitrary to cut off retro relief at the NWS and exclude prior actions?
wow, that is impressive! ... what is that? ... a 16th of an inch of snow?!?! ... is that the Snowflake Express powering onward? ...
btw, I'm sure some of you stand to make a small fortune if we hit even $10 ... and that' awesome ... but if the NWS over payment isn't returned, the usurious 10% isn't reduced and the warrants aren't cancelled, it will be because the current POTUS allowed the rule of law to be trampled ... and that will set a stunningly dangerous precedent for a country that prides itself on capitalism and property rights ... be careful what you wish for (or support)
yes, they (Howard, Davidson and others) are all extremely logical, knowledgeable and experienced ... so that begs the question - WTF are Calabria and this administration up to?
we go up a dime and its choo choo express ... but down a few pennies and its OTC manipulation ... and folks actually believe that a millennial has an inside scope when some of the very best legal and financial teams have been utterly crushed by the greed/lawlessness of the gov't and cowardice of the courts (with VERY rare exceptions) ... meanwhile, so many seem to believe that RRR will be a windfall for existing shareholders, when every action strongly suggest otherwise ... holding 100K common and hoping for a miracle because I feel like I'm watching a very long episode of bizzaro world ... after 12 f'ing years, I'll breakeven at $5 ... wonder if that will that "warrant" a celebration? ...
ps the warrants were the REAL theft
DNU, should have been more clear ... I was commiserating with your skepticism of the great V recovery ... I still maintain that we just lived through a 5-sigma event (-32.9% Q2 GDP) and NO ONE has a clue what happens next ... what is amazing is that we already have near complete uncertainty of what will happen with covid + flu this fall/winter ... or a vaccine ... but since that is not enough uncertainty, let's add the possibility of toasting the lower 50% of the economy by playing chicken with the stimulus ... reminds me of how many people said climate change predictions were wrong ... and they were right! ... the predictions were wrong ... things are deteriorating faster than expected! ...
OT (sort of) so sad but true, we know the current admin does't care about the 1/3 of the nation being crushed by the pandemic ... especially when markets are nearing/passing highs ... hey, what's the big deal that 10%+ unemployment is same as the peak of the GREAT RECESSION ... look at those giant % increases (pls ignore the small base) ... look at the great stimulus (oops, no one's home right now, but pls leave a msg and we'll get back to you after recess ... and pls leave a forwarding address after you were evicted and closed your small business) ... viva la V recovery!!!! ... maybe "V" will become the new symbol for hyper-income inequality!!! ... but hey, be careful, when you care about people, some will call you nasty names ... remember, we're the greatest country in the whole world ... well ... ok ... maybe 15th ... but what does US NEWS know ... and were only 15th because all of the citizens of those socialist commie countries (that rank above us) are so happy they can't even complete a survey properly! ...
my thoughts exactly ... and TH's as well ... +.04 and many think we found the mother lode ... i'm as tired, angry, frustrated, disillusioned and hopeful as any one ... but I really don't understand the excitement over today's announcement ... thank you for your post ... i was beginning to think i was the only one with doubts
955, I hear ya ... the stratospheric cap requirement is a ploy to neutralize RRR objections by congress AND make FnF more competitive ... and the scorched earth legal strategy will deliver, without considerable uncertainty, a defeat to the gov't that will provide cover to treat shareholders fairly under the constitution because the en banc decision and 11K documents aren't enough ... (friendly sarcasm ;)
- i'm still surprised how many think RRR will automatically be good for existing shareholders
- every ACTION of DT/admin has been EXTREMELY ADVERSE to existing shareholders
- to think all ACTIONS have been part of super clever plan to reward shareholders (and not WS/TBTF buddies) requires some pretty extreme assumptions ... like fighting law suits to the bitter end, proposing ridiculous capital reserves and retaining earning but increase liquidation preference $ for $, etc. are all good signs for existing shareholders
- Occam's razors strongly suggests existing shareholders are about to get royalty screwed unless SCOTUS, not DT, protects the 5th amendment of the constitution
glta
thanks ... and good luck to ALL existing shareholders
So was Bob Corker the ONLY REPUBLICAN trying to shaft FnF and their shareholders? Not sure why some folks insist on making this a partisan issues ... BOTH parties have royalty screwed us ... which isn't much of a surprise if one believes the narrative that WS/TBTF banks really run (own?) key gov't financial positions ...
that is definitely possible ... but i don't think of it as foregone conclusion as some do ... that's why i am willing to gamble ... zero or hero ... or more aptly ... loser or cruiser!
955 ... if you exclude words and non-binding written statements (let's face it, talk means nothing these days), can you point to any ACTIONS from DJT/admin that support the fair treatment of EXISTING shareholders? ... i don't recall anything, but could have easily missed something ... in the absence of anything concrete, DJT is at real risk of becoming an accessory after the fact ... hope i'm wrong ... have 100k common that will benefit nicely if i am ...
... OR ... DJT is hoping that SCOTUS rules in favor of gov't ... which will give him (and SM + others) cover to nail the coffin shut on existing shareholders ... and reward TBTF buddies ... the ACTIONS of DJT/admin support that outcome as a possibility (i.e., ridiculous cap requirements, continued ALL OUT battle against ALL suits, continued NWS via continued increase in SPS liquidation preference, etc.)
again, I really hope the warrants get cancelled/bought back at reasonable cost, required capital significantly reduced, NWS gets stopped and over payment returned, jps get par and we get uplisted and released ... I think there is a reasonable chance for everything but the warrants ... but WTFDIK! ;)
the exercise price is $0.00001 ... no market value needed ... only issue is whether or not warrants are legally enforceable ... I get it that some don't think they are ... I just think they are ... remember, I REALLY hope i'm wrong
guido, i understand that some think the warrants can't, or won't, be exercised ... either way, i believe that the pps acts as if they will ... I do believe the NWS is likely to be reversed, and expect a mid-single digit increase in the ppps ... then, if a miracle occurs (my characterization), the warrants are cancelled or purchased for pennies on the dollar, I think the pps would increase 3x-5x ... so by that W-T-F-do-I-know speculation, I conclude that the warrants were the real theft ... that's my story and I'm stickin' to it! ;)
not looking forward to it ... but my life expectancy is up next ... ;)
dr f, the only question I am addressing is which was the greater taking - the warrants or the NWS ... I think that somebody made the point that the NWS made the warrants moot ... and I think that is correct in the sense that who needs the warrants if everything you make is swept to the gov't ... but I think it is also correct to say that the NWS encompassed the warrants by taking all the residual value not already taken by the warrants ... and the residual value not already taken by the warrants was "only" 20% ... I wish we could conduct the experiment to see if the pps would rise more if the warrants were cancelled or if the NWS was stopped ... I think returning 80% of the value of the company to existing shareholders would blow the pps through the roof ... but that's just my opinion ... btw, this assumes the warrants are legal and will be exercised ... many don't think so, but I do ... I'm holding 100K common and would LOVE to be wrong ... cheers
trunk, i can't find anything in warrants that indicates they were a guarantee of/against anything ... can you share an excerpt that shows that? ... thanks
golf, I can't find anything in the warrants that says they can only be exercised if gov't advances not repaid ... would love to see that if you can share the excerpt ... and no need to make ad hominem attacks ... I'm just a pre-cship holder of commons who can't believe what has happened to FnF ... if it makes you feel better, maybe we can at least agree BOTH parties are guilty
So you are saying that Bush DIDN'T take 80% of all future profits with the warrants? ... well, then, what % of the profits does 80% ownership entitle you to? ... or, said another way ... what % of the net worth does 80% ownership entitle you to?
Bush started it (cship/warrants) - and took 80%
Obama finished it (NWS) - taking the remaining 20%
Trump SAYS release the twins ... but says NOTHING about reversing the theft ... and does EVERYTHING to hurt current shareholders ... hmmmm ... facts matter
the odds are good that we will have one or more vaccines by the end of this year ... but based on the history of vaccine development, the odds are very low that even one will be safe AND highly effective ... low efficacy will be very unfortunate but not a show stopper ... safety issues - which can easily show up when you jump from testing thousands of subjects to tens of millions of recipient, will immediately stop administration ... and then you have other questions such as will two doses be required? ... how long will protection last? ... what interaction will there be with flu vaccines? ... will a vaccine or other factors push the virus to mutate (which happens)? ... etc. ... immunology is one of THE most complicated areas of medicine/science ... hope for the best, plan for the worst ... and good luck to everyone
Fauci did say one billion by the end of 2021 (see below) ... I thought your reference to year end meant 2020 ... my error ...
and, fwiw, I think 2021 is going to be another rough year ... even one billion doses by the END of 2021 is still only ~15% of the world population ... and, unless the US and some other countries get really serious about masks/distancing/testing/tracing/quarantine, the 20M WW cases right now will be just the beginning ... while gov't/business will try to push re-opening, FEAR by average citizens will keep many sectors down ... and the appetite for gov't stimulus is ALREADY waning ... and who knows how much more the fed can support markets by buying financial assets ... at some point that will become like pushing string (negative rates) ... bottom line - we are in TOTALLY uncharted territory ... the drop in US Q2 GDP was a 5 SIGMA event (0.00001 percent chance of happening) ... so we really have NO historical framework for how things go from here ... bullish/optimistic talk by gov't/bus leaders can help mitigate the fundamental and psychological funk caused by business cycles, but I don't think it will do much against mother nature - who ALWAYS get the last word ... humans are amazing adapters/survivors, but more challenges are coming
https://www.businessinsider.com/fauci-drugmakers-will-have-1-billion-covid-vaccines-by-2021-2020-8
I really hope the market is NOT forward looking in the case of FnF ... agreed?
BTW, I spent 25 years in biotech, mostly with vaccine companies ... no one I know can figure out where a billion vaccine doses by year end would come from ... not even world wide ... did you see something you could share? tia, shadow
ho ho ho ... I almost took your 5 "earlier than you think" events seriously until I saw you had Santa leading the way ... good one!