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ok, that's cool ... thanks
ok, very good to know ... much appreciated ... and would a favorable ruling on that be epic for the cause?
while the BIG LIE is still peddled by many, I believe there were a number of "investigations" that showed the gse did NOT cause the crisis, but rather putting them into cship MAY HAVE been the final straw ... in either case, I believe even in Lamberth's original decision he intimated that HERA itself might be unconstitutional (anti-injunction clause) ... but no one took the bait ... so unless scotus shocks almost everyone and voids the cship, the only constitutional issue on the table is termination for cause and retro/prospective remedy ... I suppose the other wild card is allowing direct claims (which would revive and/or allow many other suits, including Wash Fed), but I've never understood which part of Collins put direct claims on the table
if the nws is cancelled and the lp reduced to zero, it would seem reasonable, and maybe even logical, for the warrants to be settled either way at a low cost and/or dilution ... but with one or two rare exceptions, nothing over the past 13 years has been reasonable or logical ... i'm not counting on scotus on helping with the warrants, so unless there is a legal basis for suing upon their exercise, i fully expect it to happen ... holding 100k common ... zero or hero ;) ...
OT: at some point, FOMO will come to an end (I sure hope scotus happens sooner)
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/big-short-michael-burry-warns-stock-market-huge-risk-crashing-2021-2-1030106969
https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe
so we have 3 main levers ... nws, required capital and the warrants ... there are others, but they are less important ...
so even if the nws is cancelled, release will take forever and/or we'll be diluted to oblivion with the cap levels and the warrants ... and the latter is very unlikely to be addressed by collins, unless a bulldozer shows up and/or direct claims are allowed
that's an incredibly huge amount of uncertainty ... and we haven't even factored in congressional complications (change to utility model, issue additional charters, etc.)
i hope/expect collins to cancel the nws ... but not much change in the sp (pop to $4?) until the cap levels and warrants are addressed ... so its not hard to understand why we are sub $2 ... not quite as pessimistic as skeptic ... but clearly not holding my breath either ...
IF IF IF warrants are exercised ...
Gov't keeps 80% of whatever we get back from the cancellation of the NWS
With a cost basis of $.00001/sh., gov't doesn't care about addt'l dilution
With a cost basis of $3.85/sh, I care about addt'l dilution
If we settle and warrants are exercised, EVERYONE loses EXCEPT gov't and a few that bought post-cship
The warrants were the real theft
I know some think they won't be exercised - or will be challenged in court
But IF IF IF they are exercised and stand up in court, well then ...
so, if remanded, isn't there any aspect of going to trial that might persuade the gov't to consider settling? ... none whatsoever? ...
what is so sad is how many men and women have given their lives for this country, only to see 3 separate presidents, their administrations and, with rare exception, the courts allow the clear theft of hundreds of billions of dollars from their OWN citizens ... the rule of law and truth are at risk of becoming principles for suckers only ... witness a member of congress who said 911 didn't happen and the Parkland shooting was staged with dolls!! ... and then gets a standing ovation for apologizing ... if I lied as a kid, I apologized AND got a serious licking with a belt (and, duh, stop lying pretty quickly) ... if our leaders are allowed to blatantly lie and/or steal without consequences, it won't be long until ordinary citizens catch on and do the same ... if that were to happen, imagine what type of country this would become ... this is NOT about Red and Blue ... but RIGHT and WRONG ... I really hope SCOTUS understands what's at stake ... its no joke
I did ... but I didn't have any dry powder until about a year ago (?) when it dipped to $1.7 and I doubled my position from 50K to 100K shares ... still ... as is clear by the facts, this has been a stunningly sad example of a blatant abuse of power ... and complicity by the courts ... with only a skin-of-our-teeth enbanc victory ... thanks
agreed, there are many possible business models ... just raised the utility option as it seems to have more attention than others ... but, yes, any meaningful concerns over future business models could trigger congressional approval ... and/or prevent external fund raising ... finally, while I agree the NWS was an outright fraudulent abuse of cship powers, it "only" took the remaining 20% ... the REAL theft is the warrants which took 80% at no cost ... those holding shares that cost below $2 maybe don't care because they'll make a killing at $10 (full exercise of warrants) ... but not so for those like me who bought at $6 pre-cship AND have waited 12+ years for justice ... more clarity in the next few months ... thanks
donot, thanks ... my understanding is that the whole "administrative" release scenario did NOT require clowngress ... however, that may not be feasible if they need external funds and the utility issue is out there ... still, if the NWS is cancelled, the cap requirement lowered and the warrants retired one way or another for a reasonable amount, then we retain earning to recap and release ... Treasury and FHFA willing ... only ... the utility issue still remains, but it is not an impediment to raising external funds, nor a release ... thanks
if new investors are needed for recap and/or buyers of the warrant shares, would the possibility about converting to a utility model need to be addressed first? ... and, if yes, wouldn't that require clowngressional approval? ... and wouldn't that impact release timing? ...
I really hope scotus does the right thing (NWS cancelled as APA violation and director subject to at-will termination) so that this can maybe get to 10 and I can die in peace ... who would have ever thought that my worst investment by far, for 12+ years, would have been in two of the most important, profitable financial firms BASED IN THE US ...
yeah, that will be awesome! ... can't wait to get fnf back into the hands of the party that put them into cship with 10% non-repayable draws triggered by fraudulent write down of loans ... while they remained cash flow positive ... 79.9% no-cost warrants, crushing capital requirements and 4 years of using every legal avenue to keep the theft going ... yep, c'mon 2024!
well, at least one of those should be true ; ) ...
it seems to me that realist have been bashed/ignored because there are many who were betting on a jump to 5-10 with an end of the sweep and a realistic recap/release plan ... unfortunately, those folks were following what the administration said rather than what they did ... a mistake that millions repeatedly made during the last 4 years ... now some are trying to spin this LOA as something good ... and apparently the market agrees (not) ... if scotus says its ok for a conservator to take 100% of the earnings of two of the most profitable companies in the world, then clearly we're toast ... I don't think they will do that, but I do think the odds are even or worse that we get an empty victory (e.g., prospective NWS relief only, for-cause termination ok and no direct claims) and/or a remand to the 5th circuit as skeptic has repeatedly warned ... and still can't decide if Yellen will continue the WS-Treasury directed control of our nation's finances ...
yes, the rule of law has been under siege for quite some time (and it almost went down last week) ... but the NWS and cship itself prove that both parties are equally guilty ... and that's only based on the crap we know about ... even though the Big Lie about FnF has been thoroughly discredited, the greed that ties Wall Street, Treasury and Congress together is very powerful ... powerful enough that it might even (pardon the reference) trump scotus ... so in 6 months we'll know if our current passports will become outdated ...
well ... its been clear to some folks that the ACTIONS of the current admin were clearly anti-shareholder ... and not just this admin, but 3 separate admins (R,D/D,R) have tried to shut them down, then cripple them when that failed ... here's the math ... Wall Street = Treasury ... Congress = Greed ... Courts = Cowards ... so Treasury + Congress + Courts = no bueno FnF ... worst case is "for cause" termination, NWS and ban on direct claims somehow all survive scotus ... if that happens, then we'll all be citizens of the US Banana Republic ... I've waited since Sep '08 ... can wait 6 more months ...
the exercise of the warrants was noted as a condition of release from cship ... tied up now but will find reference and post if not already done
NWS continues under different ruse ... and gov't was crystal clear about its intentions to exercise the warrants ... and release prohibited until warrants are exercise and 3% cap buffer reached ... all good news from a Treasury that is looking out for our best interest ... sp sure to rise today ...
Saw the "news" ...
If LP commensurately increases with retained earning, NWS effectively continues
Any write down of LP will be viewed as a loss ... this admin is all about winning ... stick the loss on the next admin IF scotus overturns NWS
It would be a miracle if anything positive happens before scotus
very disappointing couple of days ... but not surprising ... I don't think any one offered any reasons why this would turn out differently under SM than under HP and TG ... so I think this is a good time for me to take sabbatical under SCOTUS weighs in ... meanwhile, good luck to everyone ... both preferred and common deserve to do well, cheers
Why does anyone think SM will act any differently towards FnF then Paulson and Geithner? ... especially when he has fought the NWS all the way to SCOTUS and allowed MC to handicap FnF with capital requirements that are multiples of what almost everyone else thinks are needed? ... I get that some may just be hoping for a 2X pop with some good news ... but, again, what good news could be expected from another WS crony? ... what the hell am I missing?
have no idea but not sure it really matters ... unless ... a 4th amendment is still to come and its not the cure all so many thought it would be ... frankly, there are so many that are against FnF, I think our only real hope is in the courts and, maybe some day, a utility model via congress
Access Denied ... ahhhh, the irony of that in light of a 12+ year fight for justice ...
and down further she goes ... because me and all the lemmings don't believe the Gabby/HAL9000 "something wonderful is going to happen" teasers ... I've never seen folks spin such clearly negative facts into so many positives:
- extreme over capitalization is good (we'll be more secure and appease Congress
- failing to stop the NWS and fighting about it all the way to SCOTUS (we need cover to do the right thing ... especially because Trump is afraid of what others will think!)
- no discussions at all about what happens to current shareholders, just continued talk about "protecting taxpayers" with NWS, cap req and warrants (but hey, we're going to be released, right?!?!)
Other than plaintiff's and other current shareholders, NO ONE ELSE is talking about the rule of law and the largest public taking ever ... NO ONE ... but hey, the stars are aligning ... something wonderful is going to happen ... soon ...
trump not involved with two of the largest, most profitable financial companies in the world ... that have a major affect on housing which is 10%-15% of the economy ... and have billions in liquidation preference and billions more in warrants ... and have a SCOTUS decision by June on the NWS ... really? ... btw, the quieter Trump is the more I think he has a direct or indirect stake in the outcome ... yes, I also worry that SM and MC are trouble ... SM represent WS and they want Fnf dead ... and MC might as well represent WS as he also wants FnF dead ... but Trump is THE man ... name me one major policy initiative that did not align with what Trump wanted ... just one ... immigration?, environment?, trade?, taxes?, SCOTUS appts, abortion?, gun rights?, LGBTQ?, energy?, foreign policy (rocket man?, NATO?, Puerto Rico?, Russia?) ... Trump has SM, MC, DOJ and many f'ing courts and elected officials carrying the ball for WS ... its for sure on HIS radar ... he just doesn't want it to be on the public's radar ... Trump's silence is like when the kids are in the house and you don't hear them ... that's never good ... losing the election just accelerated his timing ...
the question is, how is this fate of FnF connected to Trump or his buddies? ... Trump is lashing out in all directions right now ... so unless he directly or indirectly benefits from FnF, I see no reason why he would do something good for them ... none whatsoever ... and he wasn't waiting for a court win to cover ending the NWS ... he ALWAYS does whatever he wants and could care less what others think ... instead, he's been hoping for a court win to affirm the NWS ... then that plus the clearly punitive cap, liquidity requirements and "world class" anti-FnF regulator and, viola, FnF are handicapped as much as humanly possible ... as i've said for 12+ f'ing years, i have 100k shs common and really hope i'm wrong ... but i have a bad feeling about this ...
That's my investment thesis in a nut shell ... 1st big question remaining is how much dilution possible/likely from warrants and required reserves ... 2nd is when ... we may never see patswil's $100+ ... but we could see $15-$25 ... (though $10 lets me retire!)
Wall Street has been the massive common denominator throughout this ordeal:
> Hank Paulson - Goldman Sachs ... c-ship, bogus asset write down, 10% non-repayable draws, warrants
> Time Geitner - Federal Reserve Bank of NY ... death spiral, NWS ... and nannygate
> Steve Mnuchin - Goldman Sachs ... nothing ... nada ... zip ... EXCEPT defend every law suit tooth and nail
Many automatically assume release = good for current shareholders ... I think it will be good for NEW shareholders (warrants/PO) ... nothing is certain, but I would rather take my chances with SCOTUS as WS still has way too much influence, and they own Treasury
btw, even if scotus stop the steal (our steal, not the fake one), and we get back the over payment ... won't 80% of the benefit enure to the gov't through the warrants? ... of course who caress if the warrants are mostly cancelled or bought back at a de minimus amount, but if not?
Dear FnF, I am pleased to inform you that the parole board has approved your early release ... provided you abide by the following conditions ... 1st, you will remain on parole until you have saved 20 times your annual income ... and if your income increases, so does the savings threshold ... 2nd, as compensation for the 12+ years of room and board - and protection from a self harm - that we provided you, we get to keep all of the income we took from your businesses ... 3rd, over the next 8 years we will retain the right to take 79.9% of everything you own/earn - - but don't worry, you will be generously compensated ... and 4th, you will stop pressing for the release of those 11,000 documents that might (ok, would) fully exonerate you (frankly, you probably agree that is a cross you have borne far too long) ... please rest assured that you can totally rely on us to satisfy our end of the deal ... we are sworn to uphold the rule of law ... and, well, we're from the government and we are here to help you ... we genuinely believe your early release is completely warranted, and wish you good luck and godspeed!! Your favorite uncle!
ha, forget stimulus, with brexit done, maybe we're next
and maybe both will be historic "be careful what you wish for" victories
really appreciate your reply ... wish the answer for current shareholders was better ... unbelievable that nearly all of the prior/existing value is likely to be stolen from shareholders ... but, again, always appreciate your posts ... cheers
Always appreciate your (rare) posts ... the questions remain, what will be the 4th amendment ... end NWS? ... and, even if that is yes, do you think the accumulating punitive elements of MC's reform (cap and liquidity requirement, for starters) are good for FnF ... the sudden departure of Freddie's Brickman, and common sense, would suggest otherwise ... thoughts? ... tia
Boomarrario (lol) ... totally agree ... no r-ship! ... just didn't think a check-the-box announcement related to r-ship was boom-worthy ... especially if we get a debilitating consent decree ... cheers
Boom? "These resolution plans would facilitate a rapid and orderly resolution should FHFA have to be appointed their receiver under the Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008."
sky high cap requirements
ludicrous liquidity requirements
still fighting the nws
hit pieces everywhere, including the WSJ
the BIG LIE continues in broad daylight
WS = Treasury (for ALL administrations) ... and WS wanted FnF shut down
shut down failed, so severely crippled is next best thing
if SM/MC consent decree = another WS concrete life preserver, no thanks
i'd prefer to take my chances with SCOTUS, Biden and HIS buddies (John Paulson, Gary Hindes), affordable housing mission, etc.
utility model seems most appropriate
have a safe holiday and, PLEASE, get vaccinated as soon as you can (covid AND flu ... science/biology are real ...)
cheers, shadow
many thanks!