Using ToS and respected financial news outlets to put good infomation out via twitter and forums for investors
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Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Surveys, Please fill them out if you have time, your feedback is extremely appreciated.
The surveys will help to get a better feel for what you guys want as far as the community and what you would like changed. Unfortunately they can't have fill in the blank answers and if the answers are too long (me and a long message? what?!?!) I get an error message. If you have an answer that you can't put on the survey and feel brave, please go ahead and post here on the board or send me an email/private message.
The more I hear from you the better we can work together to produce the desired results each of us are looking for.
It literally takes 30 seconds to fill them out so if you have 30 seconds and are bored or you need a break from one of my messages then please fill them out.
Thanks, Oh P.S.
The chart may seem basic or useless at this point. Once I locate a few stocks and break them down in relation with the chart you will hopefully see where I am going with all of this.
Later guys!
The next step is to find a good solid list of stocks that fit into the chart. Once I have that I will update the chart with the list of stocks including DD i have done on them. I am looking to acquire day trading, buy and hold and short and potential break outs.
For the day trading my primary focus will be volume and large high low spreads.
Buy & Hold will be a consistent history of growth with minimal loss days (these will coincide with day trade)
For shorts I will be checking out high volume losers, specifically ones with a strong 3 week decline. I will also look into biotech companies as a potential short. In my opinion and I could be very wrong, biotech seems the most volatile in comparison to other industries.
I will post all of them here and on the chart as well. I can pretty much get any form of information anyone is looking for via ToS. Just let me know what you are looking for and I will include the measurement in my watchlist screener and export the file.
I will be converting the files from .csv over to excel as I have had many issues with saving .csv from ToS only to come back and every cell is mushed into 1 row... its frustrating to say the least.
If anyone else has any stocks in mind right now, any input, any questions, any feelings, anything at all :) please let me know. Lets make next week a killer week! Lets get another STEM and not sell 15k or so shares when it is 7 cents up instead o$2.08 cents from my purchase....
Anyways hope you all had a good weekend and are ready to land some big ones this week!
Oh Pleeb01. I had a conversation with a guy from twitter who invited me to a group chat at groupme.com. It seems alright basic but all we need is a chatroom that we can all log into and keep open. Anything important one of us can relay back to the board but for quick general conversation I think groupme.com would work. I think it will increase our odds of getting in a good investment as well.
What do you think Dino? Any thoughts on how we can better communicate and work together to increase our capabilities?
Take care guys!
ITS DONE!!! for now... here is the profit/roi calculator. All instructions are in the first column. The bonus compounding table and its ability is explained on the very end. Please tear this apart and let me know whats wrong with it.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1mWMp4mkdj8yNfD7Pqo6DZEgLGjEjapkteGPUVKpE7jc/edit?usp=sharing
I hope it helps! If it sucks and is no good then Pleeb01 made it, if it is good then I made it ;) j/k Pleeb. Have fun guys!
My thoughts exactly. It easier to keep each other updated with finds via live chat.
lol call me boring but i find it fun putting it together :) Its just bout done just need to make some tweaks. Once I post it I encourage you guys to tear it apart and find any flaws you can so I can adjust it. The list of stocks probably won't be coming until tomorrow.
As of right now I am building a profit/roi guide but a lot better than the previous one I made. I will have it done tonight and posted. Hopefully by tonight as well if not tomorrow I will have a variety of stocks that fit the specific guidelines for the chart.
As of right now it is a day trading chart but it can easily be converted into a buy and hold. However once this is done I will be creating a buy & hold as well a shorting chart to complete the package.
The chart is in table form (i like seeign all of the numbers change, gives me a better idea of transition) however it can be cut down to a single row for one at a time reading. Plus it is easier to just copy and paste the formula's and then just change 1 cell when i want to see the whole table change.
Have a great weekend!
I posted this once so i am just copying it from another forum i posted on.
It relates to oil.
CRK has a lot of potential to continue moving. With 33% gains throughout the day continued with an additional 8% gains in after hours. The following links will help to shed light on CRK's recent momentum. I doubt it will be another stem but it looks very promising regardless!
http://www.thecerbatgem.com/2016/08/15/brokers-set-expectations-for-comstock-resources-inc-s-q3-2016-earnings-crk/
https://www.equities.com/news/comstock-resources-inc-crk-jumps-33-26-on-august-16
https://www.thestreet.com/quote/CRK/details/ownership.html
https://www.zacks.com/research/get_news.php?id=27sy7mn3ib
https://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/report/prices.cfm
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/06/08/crude-prices-this-chart-says-oil-could-hit-60--and-fast.html
http://www.nasdaq.com/article/mid-afternoon-market-update-crude-oil-up-2-gk-services-shares-spike-higher-cm666199.
With oil up 2% and with a prediction as high as $60 a barrel coupled with CRK's recent momentum, there is a good possibility it will continue to grow in the near future.CRK is already blowing expectations out of the water with its share prices soaring. It is also financially more stable than it was expected to be at this time.
In whole the energy sector is doing well and CRK seems to be right on top of it. I would keep an eye on this one for the time being it shows potential and has a pretty strong uptrend strength.
Awesome! I picked up some SGBY as well. Going to sell it off some point this week. Hopefully next week is a good week for us all.
How did everyone make out this week? Hopefully well. My personal best investment was EARS which by the blessings of Buddha I got lucky on. I was going to 3000 @ 5.45 but TD doesn't trade until 8 am eastern. 45 mins prior is when it dropped.
My biggest disappointment 23,000 shares of STEM bought @ .67 :(. Oh well we live and we learn. Hopefully we can find some good ones next week. Me and Pleeb01 talk all day long via twitter message board. Wonder if there is some way we can all find a group chat room or something. If we could have better communication we can synchrinize and hopefully have a better chance at all getting in on the good ones at the right times. Speaking of that Dino have you found anything out about luanching the new site?
Man what a long week. Alright so over the weekend I plan to analyze some of the stocks I have seen as the biggest movers recently. I will keep everyone posted on my findings so that everyone can look into them as well.
The first one that comes to mind is LPTN, seems like just yesterday LPTN was in the pennies... wait was it yesterday.. might as well have been considering a news article came out 2 days ago mentioning LPTN's spike to $2.15. That was over a dollar ago. Last week it was just above a dollar. Now LPTN looks all grown up and getting ready to leave home.
ACIA just doesn't seem to die huh? Perhaps the next google or amazon? This stock has gone from $28 dollars from May 18th to $108 recently.
CWEI is another that has enjoyed steady growth over the recent months. I haven't tracked this one as much but it definitely has shown performance.
I will have more as I go along. Also if you like shorting I am going to create a good short list. I am also going to look into biotech shorting as it just hit me. What is the fastest thing to drop after a failed drug test? (you can insert any joke you want here, i bypassed the joke as to not offend anyone:) EVOK, EARS and many others go down and a blaze of glory within seconds on a failed drug test. I am going to research what to look for in biotech that indicates trouble. We all know financials are a joke when it comes to biotech startups. Debt is innevitable when you hae a R&D company for 1-5 years with no product to sell.
However I am certain there are traits, or qualities or something that can help figure out what bios will work and which ones will fail. If a drug passes BOOM spike heaven. IF it fails, straight to hell. So if anyone has any knowledge about this please let me know. Anyways hope everyone made out good this week!
EARS, closed yesterday @ 5.35, 7:15 it dropped to a low of $1.75, now currently at $2.05. Approximately 100,000 shares were sold within 15 minutes @ 2.02. It is currently trading @ 2.07 now with almost 10M in volume so far. If it even reaches the $3 mark by end of tomorrow it is still a 33% increase from current value 31.7% increase.
EARS, closed yesterday @ 5.35, 7:15 it dropped to a low of $1.75, now currently at $2.05. Approximately 100,000 shares were sold within 15 minutes @ 2.02. It is currently trading @ 2.07 now with almost 10M in volume so far. If it even reaches the $3 mark by end of tomorrow it is still a 33% increase from current value 31.7% increase.
SGBY, Yup this is definitely a good one. I am said I sold my position off when it got to .0037. I had 2m shares @ .0027 at the time. SGBY has such high (sorry about the pun) potential. I always posted that intellectual property is more valuable than the products themselves. While pot stock companies within distribution will fight each other for limited customers, the research companies will have distribution fighting each other for the patents
Sometimes a security is flagged for whatever reason and the broker doesn't feel comfortable selling the positions. I have never had an issue with TD Ameritrade though
Bought 3k EARS @ 1.78, was looking good at 1.94 not so good now lol
also picked up 1400 of SCYX @ 2.84.
Those are my choices for the day. Good luck all!
New List, sorry been really busy!
AGLE 13%
JOB 13
HWAY 2.25
TSQ 15
MDWD 22
LTEA 22
CYCCP
CYCC
SCYX 25.73%
EARS 39.32%
SNSS 22.26%
TRIL 13.44%
MIFI 13.03%
ACIA 12.84%
IPCI 10.67%
RTK
NYMX 24.38%
LPTN 19.65%
CPAH 18.27%
BVX 16.34%
GREI 14.75%
HTBX 14.18%
AMS 13.03%
SKYS 12.92%
UNXL 12.27%
THLD 12.15%
BCEI 55.00%
MBII 45.13%
SNSS 34.23%
ERB 22.26%
BPMX 18.14%
CTRV 18.06%
CYCCP 26.38%
LTEA 22.88%
MDWD 22.81%
TSQ 15.44%
AGLE 13.46%
JOB 12.89%
NVIV 12.78%
NVTR 12.50%
AKTX 11.24%
NTP 10.07%
ATV 9.81%
NTN 9.57%
CYCC 9.44%
KMPH 9.03%
HMNY 8.90%
ANW 8.06%
CETX
TEDU 12.81%
AKTX 11.25%
SRAQU 11.18%
TPB 5.90%
NTLA 11.81%
CTRN 11.56%
CUO 11.81%
those were yesterdays gains, all show promise haven't had a chance to dd on all but hway job and agle look promising
also immu chk hit the news early this morning. Watch your EARS though!
SCYX looks promising saw it a bit ago then Pleeb mentioned a few minutes later and it already jumped up a couple more percent, CRK is doing well. Aside from that I haven't seen many big movements
Yeah it did big time, can't remember what i read about it. One article said the CEO, CFO and 3 other board members resigned after the merger announcement. That was just prior to the drop off the cliff.
You know its funny, my wife's maiden name is Dang. You would think that would be a sign or something...
Ouch I hope you aren't hurt too badly. Good time to get in on some action though. As I mentioned CRK looks like it has potential. I also have the entire events list to post if i don't get to caught up with trading. Also Pleeb01 is off for a couple days too so it will be pretty active. My goal for tomorrow is to find 3-5 potential runners as well as 1-2 pennies that might show a one day promise. I will keep everyone posted on what I find.
Definitely bud, glad you got in on it. Hopefully everyone was able to get a little bit of STEM. Whether big or small its better than nothing and that is exactly what I will tell myself when i got to bed tonight when i realize i got 9% of the potential profits lol.. This is what the community is for though Pleeb01 and i talked a lot on twitter about it. He hesitated and didn't get in and i saw an early battle and figured it was going to not progress to far..
However win or lose we are better for it. Night guys!
CRK SYRS, NTLA, SGBY ;)
SGBY was only bought for a quick profit but you never know i might hang onto it later.
Out of those shares I see CRK with the most potential. Although SGBY has been doing quite well lately. Wish I hadn't sold my 2mil shares that i got @ .0027. Oh well
Anyways I will just post about CRK since I have a good feeling about it tomorrow. I doubt it will be a STEM but could have a good run regardless.
http://www.thecerbatgem.com/2016/08/15/brokers-set-expectations-for-comstock-resources-inc-s-q3-2016-earnings-crk/
https://www.equities.com/news/comstock-resources-inc-crk-jumps-33-26-on-august-16
https://www.thestreet.com/quote/CRK/details/ownership.html
https://www.zacks.com/research/get_news.php?id=27sy7mn3ib
https://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/report/prices.cfm
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/06/08/crude-prices-this-chart-says-oil-could-hit-60--and-fast.html
http://www.nasdaq.com/article/mid-afternoon-market-update-crude-oil-up-2-gk-services-shares-spike-higher-cm666199.
With oil up 2% and with a prediction as high as $60 a barrel coupled with CRK's recent momentum, there is a good possibility it will continue to grow in the near future.CRK is already blowing expectations out of the water with its share prices soaring. It is also financially more stable than it was expected to be at this time.
In whole the energy sector is doing well and CRK seems to be right on top of it. I would keep an eye on this one for the time being it shows potential and has a pretty strong uptrend strength.
Your Lucky!
I bought STEM at .67 with 20k, had i held it would have been 90k profit instead of 900 lol oh well. Next time.
Sorry I haven't talked all day or perhaps you guys enjoyed the peace and quiet lol. Been busy. Looking into tomorrow I don't see much potential in earnings as of yet. I will post the list hopefully tomorrow morning before open.
You guys have definitely been lively today. Will have to catch up on the board tomorrow morning. Getting up around 1 AM for pre-market.
you i had 20k in it at .67 sold it at .74
Ah thank you we are a good team here. Small but building :). I totally understand the busy part too. Hopefully we will be able to work together and help lesson the DD burden or any other burden for that matter allowing for the best use of time and resources.
Thanks CJ, Yeah SAEX definitely has potential on both ends. I agree with you on SORL, abnomoly how it went up. Will definitely keep an eye on it as well. It is also the same with STEM, which has gone up about 75%+ since yesterday after close. I am going to be posting a list of all corporate events for the month of August in awhile. Once my funds hit my account I will be pretty focused on trading so I won't be as active here until after close.
If anyone needs anything though just leave a message and I will do my best to get back to it as soon as possible.
Stocks to keep an eye on for pre-market and open tomorrow.
Earnings est / actual
ABEO -.15 / -.02
SORL .18 act .37
DAVE .115 / .17
EVK .21
ASUR -.02 / .15
CIDM -1.25 / -.7
ALRM .095 / .15
FN .06 / .06
VIPS .14 / .129
AST -.19 / -.123
CIFC .08
TEDU .13
ARL .16
GVP .05
CDTI -.431 / .13
INWK .04 / .11
SITO -.035 / .04
CLSN -.21 / -.19
STEM up 47% AHT
DD on a Few promising companies.
Alright first Dino don't yell at me! I know I said I would keep the posts small but hey I figured its quicker to post one big one than 15 small ones right? Anyways here is some promising companies guys, hope it helps!
http://www.duncanindependent.com/small-cap-update-on-northern-dynasty-minerals-ltd-nak/
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/northern-dynasty-reports-2q-loss-193137002.html
http://www.streetupdates.com/2016/08/02/noticeable-price-moves-mcewen-mining-inc-nysemux-northern-dynasty-minerals-ltd-nysemktnak/
www.macroaxis.com has it currently overvalued with a sell rating. If you look at the price history of NAK over the course of just the last 2-3 weeks it has been on a steady rise.
The financials of this company are sound with almost no debt.
macroaxis reports that possibility of financial distress is almost impossible for NAK.
However www.macroaxis.com also gives it a 50% chance to reach $3 within the year.
News has been very supportive of the company and NAK shows promise. www.macroaxis.com is all about the statistics so the forecast is based solely on past performance.
I actually invested in this company like a month or so ago and sold it off. Had I kept it from june til now my $5000 investment would be over $15,000 now. Don't you just love seeing old stocks on the move lol.
Since 07-07-2016 NAK went from 33.4 cents to its current 97 cents.
REN:
Might be a good one to watch for a short possibility. 08-03-2016 Ren was trading at $6.14, 07-07-2016 it was $2.84. Currently at $15.53.
From August 2015 at $1.80 until July of 2016 at $2.80 REN grew about 53% since July it has gone up to its current $15.53, a growth of 554.64% in 2 months.
At $2.80 you could have purchased 3571 shares /w out margin, and 5102 shares with 30% margin. That now would be $55,457 /w out margin, $79,234 /w Margin
https://www.macroaxis.com/invest/market/REN--hype--Resolute-Energy-Corporation
REN has a daily expected return of 10% according to the above link.
CRK:
Oh I remember when CRK went up 240% in a single day along with TOPS and MPET. Literally 5 breakouts in 1 week I watched.
CRK has grown over 500% in the last 3 weeks without a split which is an anomoly.
https://www.macroaxis.com/invest/market/CRK--hype--Comstock-Resources-Inc
CRK is also very sensitive to hype elasticity. The expected price after the next press release is $6.05.
It has an expected daily gain of 14%
https://www.macroaxis.com/invest/market/CRK--Comstock-Resources-Inc.
9 analysts give crk a sell rating. macro gives it overvalued.
To not only view all recent headlines of CRK but also the affect each headline had on the share value visit:
https://www.macroaxis.com/invest/market/CRK--symbolMedia--Comstock-Resources-Inc
TWLO:
114% gain in just the last month.
Couldn’t get any info on macro so you will have to do all DD on this one.
CLBS
Nothing more than a reverse split on July 27th in which it has had no substantial growth since.
GOGL
Has declined approximately 500% Since August 24th of 2015. It hit its all time low last February 24th at $2.55 being up 50% since.
SQNM
Had 174% growth but only due to a merger on July 27th.
Since SQNM has seen little to no growth.
MFRM
http://www.nasdaq.com/article/commit-to-purchase-mattress-firm-holding-corp-at-2250-earn-153-annualized-using-options-cm660468
http://www.com-unik.info/mattress-firm-holding-corp-mfrm-major-shareholder-acquires-1561309-74-in-stock/
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/mattress-firm-talks-steinhoff-international-180858083.html
MFRM bought out on Aug 7th for 3.8B, since no growth.
OCN
Has had nominal growth over the last month at 74%
http://voiceregistrar.com/2016/07/22/ocwen-financial-corp-nyseocn-near-to-lift-curtain-on-june-2016-earnings/
http://www.thecerbatgem.com/2016/07/28/keefe-bruyette-woods-cuts-ocwen-financial-corporation-ocn-price-target-to-3-00/
according to www.macroaxis.com:
Macro gives OCN a naïve prediction of $5.15 over the next 30 days, $9 .97 in 6 months,
https://www.macroaxis.com/invest/technicalAnalysis/OCN--Naive-Prediction?dayRange=1
ABEO
Up 58% in the last few weeks
Macroaxis’s naïve prediction is $5.14 in the next 30 days.
https://www.macroaxis.com/invest/technicalAnalysis/ABEO--Naive-
Prediction?dayRange=1
If anyone uses this measurement and wonder why it changes in different ways over different time spands, it is because it uses the amount of time looking forward to look back to make the prediction so. A 30 day forecast backtests 30 days, 6 months backtests 6 months
Macroaxis also gives it a buy signal but says it is over valued.
HWAY
95% gains in the last 3 weeks
3% expected daily gains
https://www.macroaxis.com/invest/market/HWAY--hype--Healthways-Inc
complete news listings aside from the ones I listed prior to the macro link
https://www.macroaxis.com/invest/market/HWAY--symbolMedia--Healthways-Inc
Macro NAÏVE for 30 days upwards of $32
https://www.macroaxis.com/invest/technicalAnalysis/HWAY--Naive-Prediction?dayRange=1
http://www.streetupdates.com/2016/08/15/notable-analysts-recommendation-to-monitor-amarin-corporation-plc-nasdaqamrn-healthways-inc-nasdaqhway/
http://www.thecerbatgem.com/2016/08/15/healthways-inc-forecasted-to-post-q3-2016-earnings-of-0-52-per-share-hway/
http://www.com-unik.info/healthways-inc-hway-posts-earnings-results-beats-expectations-by-0-53-eps/
http://www.fool.com/investing/2016/07/28/why-healthways-inc-acquired-a-higher-price-today.aspx
ADXS
Up 104% in the last 3 months, about 80% of that is since July 29th going from $8.47 to its current of 14.97
Daily expected gain of 3.48%
Expected $15.19 next headline.
Complete list of headlines
NAÏVE has it at $23 in 30 days
https://www.macroaxis.com/invest/technicalAnalysis/ADXS--Naive-Prediction
EXAS
3 months ago was trading at $5.41, now at $21.92 for a 284% increase
NAÏVE prediction for 30 days $24
https://www.macroaxis.com/invest/technicalAnalysis/EXAS--Naive-Prediction
Analysts recommendation
https://www.macroaxis.com/invest/advice/EXAS
Earnings Estimates
https://www.macroaxis.com/invest/earningsEstimates/EXAS
Exceeded price estimate:
https://www.macroaxis.com/invest/analystRecommendations/EXAS
Exas is almost back to where it was last year of $23.15, currently $21.92
7 months ago it hit a low of $4.72
Exas currently has a buy rating based on 9 analysts reports
https://www.macroaxis.com/invest/market/EXAS--valuation--Exact-Sciences-Corporation
BCRX
Earnings estimates
https://www.macroaxis.com/invest/earningsEstimates/bcrx
94% chance to be below current value in 30 days
https://www.macroaxis.com/invest/priceProbability/BCRX/4.88?a=less
Analysts: 1 sell, 3 buy 4 hold
https://www.macroaxis.com/invest/analystRecommendations/bcrx
currently considered undervalued
https://www.macroaxis.com/invest/market/bcrx--valuation--Exact-Sciences-Corporation
expected daily return of 2.43%
https://www.macroaxis.com/invest/market/BCRX--hype--BioCryst-Pharmaceuticals-Inc
leaders:
https://www.macroaxis.com/invest/market/BCRX--management--BioCryst-Pharmaceuticals-Inc
FELP
98% growth in 1 month
To save some time I am just going to post links lol.
https://www.macroaxis.com/invest/market/felp--symbolMedia--BioCryst-Pharmaceuticals-Inc
https://www.macroaxis.com/invest/market/felp--management--BioCryst-Pharmaceuticals-Inc
https://www.macroaxis.com/invest/market/felp--hype--BioCryst-Pharmaceuticals-Inc
https://www.macroaxis.com/invest/market/felp--Exact-Sciences-Corporation
https://www.macroaxis.com/invest/market/felp--valuation--Exact-Sciences-Corporation
https://www.macroaxis.com/invest/analystRecommendations/felp
https://www.macroaxis.com/invest/earningsEstimates/felp
https://www.macroaxis.com/invest/advice/felp?riskLevel=63&dayRange=1
If anyone is interested in a Fully Detailed 6-10 page report from A-Z let me know and I will download it off macro and upload it to google docs. Hope this helps.
ACIA and TWLO doing well as expected.
http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/content/news/2016/08/15/buzz-stocks-twitter-inc-tesla-motors-inc-and-aurinia-pharmaceuticals-inc
AUPH was up 22% pre-market around 3:45 then after that hit it is current -57%
I also have todays Earnings report,
ASUR est -0.02 actual 0.15 up 17.83%
SORL est 0.18 actual 0.37 up 55%
EBIO is one to watch as well with a 1660% gain in 6 months. Last April it was trading at $0.335 now its almost $6. $10,000 would have been $165,970
so 10k with MPET and 10k w/ EBIO over $400,000 in 6 months off a $20k investment.
If you look at the list I put up and have loaded it into a platform, you will see out of 320 about 60-75 are down, 5 are neutral the rest are up of which probably at least 30-40 are 5% or higher so far
Remember all of my examples on ROI were based on .11% to .74% with the use of margin 1% a day is astronomical. $10,000 at 1% compounded each day with 60% margin and -$100 and in fees interest etc comes out to over 3M in one year. Of course this does not account for any losses but take ACIA right now. If you placed $100,000 or about 1000 shares in it using margin it would cost about $30,000 or so to invest with i think 70% if that grew at 1% a day (10%) so far today, you make an ubelievable amount. 10% on 100k is already a $10,000 single day gain.
Those are the kinds of stuff I am talking about :)
The best way to determine if it will continue is to look at recent news filings corporate actions. Which you have very well done. Does it look good or bad? Positive or negative? Income or Debt? ;) There is a good chance that company may still go much higher you never know. There are other upcoming stocks as well I am sure. We do not need to make a million off one huge stock but it would be nice :) j/k
Once I get this and that and everything in between finished up I will jump more into the DD. I have been trying to bust out this strategy all day and strategy 1 of 4 is done as far as the excel breakdown. I just need to write it up in word.doc
Great Suggestions Dino, thank you. I will definitely cut down my messages.
I was actually thinking about that as well. Different investors have different methods. There is no shortage of variety on how to measure a stock.
in fact let me throw sectors and industry into my ToS real quick.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1KmBW4CgrTJsSePYXSyKWSsOoM9vz0Lh20gR4EasXBf8/edit?usp=sharing
There let me know if any troubles accessing it.
If anyone would like I can just as easily sort the lists out by sectors/price/industry/top gainers/ strongest trends/ pretty much anything you can think of so if anyone wishes to have a list designed with a specific purpose all you need do is ask.
I have been busy all day and literally all day working with Pleeb01 to come up with a strategy that will help get people to their goals.
Once it is done and has been proven I will bring it to the group.
Good night guys!
Alright I will definitely check out in a bit Beau, thank you :)
How to make out on a breakout!
Alright first I have to admit that it must seem like i have absolutely no life at this point being that we are probably the smallest followed board with only 3-5 active members yet we are currently I think one of the most active boards for daily posts. With me being... half... of the ... posts... :(.
Just tell me to shut up whenever. However if anyone else would like to jump in on something and push my name off the board I would be estatic!
Besides i need to reup my subscription as of right now after this post i have 1 post remaining for the day lol.
Anyways.
Another observation I have had is this, the stocks you see up 10-15-20% a day are most likely either getting very close to a breakout of 50% plus or they are about to fizzle out. Now hear me out on this.
If you go over huge watchlists every day you will see that stocks that have held a 10%+ gain (usually more like 15-20) are getting ready to have a bad day coming soon. Vice versa a stock that has been doing horribly soon seems to reverse out of no where and receives a huge gain for one day. NO DO NOT THINK THE CRAPPY STOCK IS YOUR NEXT BREAKOUT!
It is just stabilizing based on the markets feelings of it being either OB or OS (over bought or over sold, half of your indicators are based on this concept)
The real trick to making a killing on a stocks breakout is first, follow it based on my evidence provided in the last post but two watch your smaller gains.
Want to track momentum over time? Positive news and other implications on a stock that is continuing to grow in gains each day or week is a good sign that the enthusiasm is building and more people are getting in and waiting for the perfect moment.
Also realize that prior to a breakout there is a good chance that stock has already gone up 50-100% over the last 2-3 weeks. Kinda.. like... the ones on the list I provided ;).
Now remember my examples of how 1% a day could make a LOT of money in 252 days or 1 year of trading?
Think about a stock going up 3% on average a day for 3 weeks? By way this will be approximately 21% if anyone has a strenght meter on their platform or trading site.
3% compounded over 20 days. One initially thinks 60% gains but it is actually 80% or 1/3rd more. A $1 stock increasing 3% for 20 days is
$1.806
So in reality in 1 month you received 80% on that stock. So a 10k investment would have made 8k that month. This is also without margin by the way.
So you already doubled your money. However as more positive forces such as good media coverage or earnings or what not come out, the $1 stock will increase in momentum as more people learn about it. Eventually the 3% gains turn to 4% and 5% and 8% then at 10% or so thats when people start noticing.
Here is a legit question and is anyone willing to give a legit answer? How many people have gone through a watch list and the first and sometimes only thing they see is the daily gain? How many people say they won't touch anything less than 10%? I am guessing out of us 9 at one point all 9 of us did it. I can verify that I am as guilty as they come in this regard. Its okay so aren't most people. Thats why at this point the stock really begins to take off.7
Now for the next 4 weeks you might see days with 3% 5% 7% 5% 8% then 10-12-15. So in a month your average daily could really be more like 5-6%. Lets be conservative and say week one average is 4.5% week 2 5.5% week 3 & 4 - 6% week (this could be much higher but I am only at 5.5% and the number already seems to big. so i reduced the initial averages down)
At 1 week of 4.5% and 1 week of 5.5% the stock went from $1.80 to $2.94.
By the end of second month the stock is now at $4.96 or almost 5X its value from 2 months ago. Now this isn't a perfect world and say throughout this there was a 50% loss.
That would still put you near $2.50 or 150% gains. Not bad. I also just figured something else out thats cool. Playing with the numbers,
1.05858188 or 5.858188% a day doubles your money in one week with compounding. If anyone has ever heard of the rule of 72 its a good rule to follow. Basically with compounding if divide 72 by say 3 (3%) you get 24. If the compounding affect is in months then it will take 24 months to double your money. I just tested it on the excel to verify and it was 3 cents over so its pretty accurate.
Anyways, its at this point that people pay attention. This is when the momentum has really built up and people are getting in. Now everyone is waiting and anticipating that earnings report or the news article that comes out to show the company is just crushing it. When the expected earnings or media comes out and it is positive boom, you have the day with 30-40-50 or even 100-200-300% gains. If it doesn't then you have a day with -20-30-40 loss.
The example above is actually ACIA to a tee. Go through its 3 months historical data. The loss example is just like what happened to GEVO. Just prior to its earnings it was 3X higher than analysts had predicted 2 or 3 months ago. It had a bunch of good press and was doing quite well. Earnings came out and it was almost twice as bad as expected. AHT right after the report dumped GEVO by 25%
Anyways my point is the best time to get in is before ayone notices it. The stocks on that list are the primary stocks that will be next up for breakouts.
However there is no guarantee on that so please do not take my sole word for it. However together I believe we have good odds of eliminating the ones that won't make it and narrowing down on the ones that will.
Any feedback from anyone is always welcome... please!
Breakout! Who likes em who hates em?
A certain someone asked me a certain question one day so I wrote them back. Now this is not based on science but my own personal experience watching them unfold. There are hundreds of different reasons for a breakout. I just pointed out the biggest ones I have noticed. If anyone finds any flaws or any thign they do not agree with, please post and correct me so that I as well everyone else will have a clearer picture :)
What have I had you looking into over the last few days. What kind of DD? Are you checking ehlers roofing and super smoothing applications with a SMA over 50 with your DMI/ADX measurements to see the reverse momentum of stocks?
No, those are all fine but guess what, everyone else uses them as well which means you are in with the masses. No I have had you checking what?
Remember?
Think hard?
Track your stocks media attention. This is the number one driving force of a stocks push. Why? Because human psychology derived from raw human emotions pushes stocks further and harder than any other measurement out there. A good press release can move a stock by massive gains or a bad one can drop it like a piece of garbage.
Notice how I checked GEVO, what did I check? First thing I did is went to the news source. Found out that it has had good coverage over the last couple weeks. Analyzed the coverage to see how strong it is (valuable).
After that I then look at the historical data to validate the stocks performance. A report of unusual volatility is not necessarily a good press release. It just means there are sudden abrupt changes happening. This should not be considered good press.
The next most powerful aspect is earnings. Remember how I told you about GEVO’s potential. I have been asked multiple times about it actually. If a stock beats expectations there is a good chance for a uptrend for at least the day of the report. If it fails to meet expectations then there is probably a good short opportunity.
Take GEVO for example, EST is (0.15) if it comes in on Tuesday (0.16) or worse most likely GEVO will have a bad day. If it comes in (0.14) or better most likely GEVO will have a good day. You may not think a single penny is a big deal but I have seen strong up and downtrends based on a single penny above or below earnings. Sometimes it doesn’t matter. It all depends on investors sentiment on that stock. However if you want a good chance at GEVO being a TOPS OR SAEX OR MPET, if GEVO comes in 0.01 or better (negative estimate with a positive actual) GEVO has a good chance of going up 100% 200% maybe even 300 or 400 that day. Why? Plain and simple here is a simple break down of what happens at this point.
People who earnings impact the most are the buy and holders. They are typically the first ones to invest or at least the majority of the initial investors. Either buy and holders see a potential in a company that has shown growth in performance and strength. Or current investors who are confident and place more funds within the company. After that you have the day traders who see the buy and holders jumping in so they take advantage of the uptrend. This is usually when other investors who missed it quickly check the news and or earnings or anything else pertinent to the sudden explosion or you have the majority of the investors who see a massive uptrend that is generating triple digit returns in a single day and they jump in blindly thinking they might miss out on that 5 Million Percent that the stock will make today.
They are typically the last in buying at peak. Why is this bad? Because smart money typically has profit margins and they wait with their stop limits and mental stops. They hit their goal and sell out and take profits off the table or. Once the stock gets to their satisfaction they place stop limits and they also have mental stops in their head in case all else fails. So at the first sign of trouble they sell off quick.
As I said human emotions drive stocks more than anything else. Everything else is what sparks human emotions. There are many factors but again this is the basics.
When the earnings report or press release comes out. The initial investors buy in knowing a few things. One the good press means the company is doing well, two the good press is going to drive the masses crazy meaning there is a good chance others will invest based on the news article that just came out.
So they buy in first and wait (this is where the real money is made). After that as the gains start to rise human emotions kick in. Primarily GREED and FEAR. People see that green ticker moving up up up and they think OH NO!!!! I am missing out on this unbelievable opportunity. So they jump in. Depending on timing they could still make out very well but it is much more risky. If you check most stocks that had a HUGE spike that were legit, I am not talking pumps. You will see at the time where the news and earnings came out there is a initial spike. Sometimes small sometimes large but initially there is a spike followed by some increases and some dips but as more and more people catch wind of the stocks performance you will see the spikes getting larger throughout the day. By days end the spikes are enormous and the dips are horrid. The volatility grew not because of the news. The news and the earnings were a spark that lit the fire. It got people moving it’s the base of the momentum. That initial spike you see was caused by the actual news or earnings (there are more but these primarily have the biggest impact) After that initial spike. It is human GREED or FEAR that forces that stock for the rest of the day. The reason the spikes and dips get larger throughout the day is because the bigger the gains and or losses the more investors it attracts. The more people catch wind of it and jump at the opportunity. If you don’t believe me check your accumulation / distribution levels from time of the press release or earnings to the end of the day. Also check your basic volume sold each hour after release.
GREED and FEAR are always there and they are always waiting and they are the biggest force of stock movement. However they are always dormant until something wakes them up. The louder the bang the quicker they jump up.
So lets get back on topic.
A single news release can have a strong impact but its hard to predict that a great news article will come out randomly. Instead if you have been watching your watch lists and take note on stocks that consistently been moving up over time. These are the ones to watch for.
For news:
Look at it this way, this is a very good indicator of something big.
Example:
MEDIA
April 20 2016
XYZ company announces new dynamic product development that will revolutionize the market bringing in a whole new industry (yeah I know it’s a lot, it doesn’t have to be this big at all but keep following).
May 14th 2016
XYZ company reports that ABC product is below budget, and ahead of schedule.
June 22nd 2016
XYZ company has begun marketing its new innovative ABC product to popular merchants such as (pick some of your big companies like I dunno Walmart, JC pennies, MACEYS, for you pot stock heads The Gonja shop or 4:20 time zone head shops).
July 8th 2016
XYZ has now started production of ABC product and is expected to begin distribution within the month. Expected sales for the rest of the fiscal year are predicted to amount to 212 million in revenue.
August 4th 2016
XYZ company announces distribution of abc product with actual sales destroying the previous estimates. Abc product is currently sold out with a backlist of 6 months. People are waiting around the corner to have a chance to buy abc product. The projected budget to research and develop this project was 106 million however xyz reports it was completed at 92 million. The estimated sales projection of 212 million is now expected to be 377 million based on current demand of the product. Xyz is now building more manufacturing plants to keep up with the demand but still realistically states that the product will be sold out until at least February of next year. (This is a marketing ploy, you think apple can’t make enough Iphones to keep up with demand? Of course they can but they the supply rises and demand falls dropping the overall price of the Iphone lowering revenue and income dropping their financials scaring investors droping share prices etc etc. It is a big balancing act)
This is how you find a big one. It can happen suddenly of course but if you find a few stocks receiving good media coverage following their products or services etc. Then when the final news comes out about the product (follow my time line) that is going to be the explosion. Now keep in mind this was all positive. From start to finish of that example you might have already enjoyed 100 or 200% in gains as people see the strength and potential in this stock. You bought xyz when it was only .25 a share. You bought up 100,000 shares cause you saw the potential. Just before the good news about distribution your .25 could already be .5 or .75. Then on the big day like today for SAEX you could go from .5 to (Saex hit 400% at one point btw) to $2 if you sold at the right time, or .75 to $3. So 100k X .25 is $25,000 initial.
100k X $2 = 200k
100k X $3 = 300k
With a company like that it could go to $10 very easily based on past performance and credibility. This is how you make real money on a break out, not the ones who jump in on the day of at peak price. The people that actually really make the money unfortunately get it from the people who lose at the top. I won’t be surprised to see SAEX either take a nose dive down to around 250% for the day as it stabilizes from OB. Or finishes today only to see a big decline in the next couple of days. Don’t believe me. TOPS had a 157% the other day. I think it peaked at 200+ Since it has been declining about 10% a day.
Following media is one of the best ways to spot a breakout. However a single news article can do this as well. In that case you have to be quick and see the news before anyone else. Once the general public catches wind its already over bought.
Earnings is the same way. Find your companies that you believe are potentials and pick through their financials. An easy Quarterly and annual report based on Asset to Debt, Cash flow, revenue, income, liabilities and EPS will indicate where and what will happen. Look over 4 or 5 years through both annual and quarterly. Has it been increasing or decreasing? How much has it changed quarter to quarter and year to year? How has it managed these changes and adjust and adapted? These things are what analysts are looking at when they make their estimates. This will give you an idea of what to look for prior to the earnings call. You won’t find much out about last years performance until after the call which will be after its too late to really take advantage of the opportunity. The buy and holders already know this information and probably have their trade screen open and ready to take action the second the report goes public. They are the initial spark.
If you know that in 2015 GEVO (this is an example not real) had over the last 3 years:
This will be going from longest year back to most current date:
Asset to Debt ratio EPS Positive Cash Flow Total Debt Total Assets
2013 (23M) (0.92) (11M) (37M) 14M
2014 (17M) (0.76) (4M) (33M) 16M
2015 (7M) (0.32) 2M (27M) 20M
Alright first, I just wrote those numbers out (I am posting this on my board to) so if anyone goes what the heck is this guy smoking, he needs to lay off the pot stocks. Well it is just for illustration and example. Pull real financials and they look somewhat kinda maybe similar lol. However the important thing to take away is the fact the company has grown in assets and cash flow while reducing debt. This is the major component that people look for.
Analysts check these things prior to making their predictions on EPS. Now if an EPS comes out lower then expected it means the companies financials have gone down showing signs that the company is weakening. If it beats expectations it shows signs of the company strengthening. This is why EPS can cause a break out.
Plus people look at EPS last year was $1 now this year $0.50, oh crap the shares lost 50% value in the last year. I better get out prior to it losing any more. This is the biggest thing. People do not want to lose money so when they see a stock that has lost money over the last year. They get out.
Those are the two biggest things to watch for when trying to find a breakout. These will spark the real power which is GREED and FEAR. Again check any breakout stock over the course of months and track its news and financials and see if you see a pattern. Check its performance the day of press or earnings release. See if you see that initial spike or dip followed by some volatility that grows faster and faster throughout the day the initial was the release, the rest was GREED and FEAR. Now just because something has a breakout doesn’t mean it will stabilize and drop. It depends on the company and the events. The example I gave you, good chance that company will continue to rise. In fact that breakout could last for a few days. Just look at OPTT it went from $2 to hitting a high of $15 (twice) over 2 weeks time despite not selling on of its PB3’s lol.
GREED and FEAR dictated that one. So many people said sell sell sell and yet people bought bought bought because the price went up up up.
Anyways those are your biggest factors but there are more.
Mergers and acquisitions. These have good potential for causing a break out. When a smaller company bought from a larger company for premium price it means the current shareholders will be paid out based on the price of the company. If you own 10% of xyz company that is currently valued at 100M but ABC company sees the potential in their product or in the company its self and wants to buy it at $150M well your 10% of that company is now worth 50% more…
When a company merges this can be good or bad depending on circumstances. It means that the current company will become part of (hopefully) something bigger which will increase performance. However there has been times a merger has dropped a stock badly. You have to look at what company it is merging with and the stats on that company. The management, The financials, the track record, the output. Evaluate and figure out. Does this merger seem positive or negative to future potential of the company?
SEC filings can play a pivotal role in a potential breakout. Companies are required to file every change and adjustment they make with the SEC. The SEC will post these changes on their site or you can find them on the exchange websites for example otcmkt.com has SEC filings on their site which is easy to find and covers all filings with every company they list.
Say you saw a stock that went up yesterday and because it went up you invested into it. Not knowing why just based on the fact that it made 10% yesterday so 20% today will definitely happen. Then someone mentions an SEC filing so you decide to take a look and realize your company FILED Chap 7 BK filings with SEC last week. Yesterday was the effective date, the spike in value was people pumping it real quick before the execution and death of the stock. You didn’t look prior at the last year to see the stock went down 97% Now you panic! You go to sell your stocks and only to find SEC has suspended your stock. Oh NO you go to look at your stock on the internet and read some words like deletion, cancellation. This does happen and people play off this just as much as anything else. That SEC filing could create a HUGE shorting advantage. Opposite is true you get a good SEC filing and it could cause a breakout.
Lets see looking up GEVO to find an example. Oh he… oh.. um… hrm… ruh roh. Looks like GEVO filed chap 7 as of 07-23-2016. SEC states that the debtors are required to liquidate all assets for distribution to the primary lenders to fill all debt obligations. The redistribution of capital will be based on the largest debts on down. Banks and other major lending institutions will receive compensation first. After the primary debts are repaid. The following will receive full or partial reimbursement.
Vendors,
Secondary Lenders (ever heard of a second position note? They get wiped out if the first forecloses and they can’t keep the first up to date)
Service providers,
Now primary share holders. This will be based on a set % of shares a company or individual holds. You have to have a set amount of class A or class B stock in order to be considered.
Finally last and always least with almost no hope of repayment. All other shareholders.
Here is bud…
http://www.otcmarkets.com/edgar/GetFilingHtml?FilingID=11504375
This is why you always check SEC filings. It can destroy you if you don’t. Let me know what your thoughts on it are.
If this scares you it should!
Now if you read this before panicing and clicking on the link I was just joking. See the fear though. You already for at least a split second felt a nerve start to twitch. How do I get out now without losing everything probably at least started to cross your mind. Now breathe lol sorry I am an ass I know but a lesson that had the element of fear in it usually sticks more effectively than just reading.
That notice just states NASDAQ extending GEVO’s delisting for 180 days giving GEVO 6 months more time to get back to the $1 mark. That’s good news.
Anyways point being any one of these things can start a break out. A breakout is simply an event or situation that sparks enthusiasts with GREED or FEAR. The enthusiasts usually people with specific interest in the company will act based on the event. The rest of the push and drive is based on everyone else seeing the momentum and getting hit with GREED and FEAR which will be the overall strength of the trend.
If you take multiple things into consideration the chance of a breakout increases. Combine solid news releases with a positive EPS and you have a good chance at a breakout. The opposite is true, take that example I wrote about xyz. If the news had been negative all the way up until the distribution article. You would have seen a declining stock over time. Horrible stock over time maybe. Say it was over budget and behind schedule. Complications with development. You would have seen investor confidence drop. However that one article that came out about distribution. Despite 4 or 5 bad press releases if that article said.
Although XYZ experienced many challenges with the development of abc product. It’s launch has been a complete success. Sales have jumped up 32% in the last month alone. You could very well see a break out again.
Had all previous news been positive then the final release was like:
Xyz reports flattened sales of abc product. Sales are 47% lower then expected. XYZ is shutting down one manufacturing plant in order to reduce overhead. BOOM there goes your stock, hope you like shorts.
Its that simple find out what pushes people and get in before they find out. Stocks are extremely difficult to predict when your using Ehlers advanced PHD math. Don’t believe me look at his Aerotechnological mathematical equations to come up with oh I forget the name its suppose to take white noise out of a trend and clean it up to show more accurate numbers. How he developed it I don’t know and I am sure it is absolutely amazing. Thing is, it only tells you about past performance. As does all tools. Your ADX and DMI tools measure past even though that past might have been 1 minute ago its still past.
The stuff I just told you is much more accurate when predicting the future? As I said stocks are hard but people are easy to predict. Don’t believe me?
Tell someone you will pay them $10,000 to do something simple and see the look in their face when they realize your for real. GREED hits them and now you have a new best friend. Flip it, tell someone you are sueing them for $10,000 dollars for something that has a strong case. See the red in their face and the gun they are beginning to pull. You already know the outcome on each situation. The stock market is no different. People are greedy and want more and fearful and panic at loss.
If you understand what drives those two elements you have a much better chance at finding breakouts. Learn how others manipulate stock movement with BID and ASK and you can calculate what is happening with your stock. Watch for the triggers. If you notice when a stock hits a certain price a huge ask or bid order comes up. The price moves and they disappear. The price comes back and magically those same orders are there. Now you know at what points people are pushing the prices. This isn’t always accurate as it could be some goof off trying to get out and doesn’t know supply and demand you will learn how to pin point them later. So now you know at what point people are trying to drive up the price and at what point people are trying to lower it. That is good to know.
Now measure your ticks over 10-15 minutes and the spread between them. I typically use the % change more than actual net change so here.
1% 1.1% 1.3% 1.45% 1.37% 1.31% 1.27% 1.35% 1.42% 1.46% 1.41% 1.38% 1.36% 1.43% 1.48% 1.51%
That right there is a strong uptrend. Your highs and lows are getting higher each time and the difference is pretty good. You also have to take into account the value of shares. These changes wouldn’t be so good on a penny stock where one transaction could literally be 5%. This would be good on say TSLA or BIIB. Or even some of your smaller stocks such as FB. Bring this down to a $20 and now it is questionable. You now have to measure the momentum or time it takes to go from one end to the other. This will be the final indication.
The change indicates up or down trend the timing or momentum will show you the best time to get in or out of a stock. Accompany that with your breakout and you could have an amazing day. Fail to do this and you could end up like most people. Losing a LOT of money on an AMAZING opportunity because of failed TIMING!
Sorry for the long note lol. I want to post this on my board and figured it might help.
If you have read this far it is because of 1 of 2 things. 1. You just wanted to confirm that I really am as crazy as the nice people at Sunnyvale Psychiatric Ward have classified me to be. ;)
Or you saw something of value in this. I am posting a follow up in just a few minutes about the best potential for profiting on a breakout and how we are already on our way there. If you haven't read this far then the next post won't make any sense and you will be completely lost and lose out on it! just kidding :)
No worries at all, this board wasn't created for the purpose of finding employees! I hoped to have people that are too busy to invest, because they are the ones who need to invest the most.
Financial freedom isn't overally hard to achieve if you run the numbers, stick to your guns and actually consider investing a career vs a hobby. Robert Kiyosaki says it best. Once your passive income exceeds your expenses your financially free.
Its that simple but don't quit on my word lol. However back to my point. I want this place to be built by those who have the time to contribute in order to help those who can't. Seems backwards huh? Well in my opinion a person who doesn't have time is probably working their assets off which means they could probably use an additional 1k -2k a month in profits off good investments.
Thats why I am trying to build a strong community of honest investors with integrety. If someone gets burnt they will remember it forever especially in the beginning. I want people who have a little extra cash they can invest with without being in trouble due to loss of capital, to use this board as a means of building up their reserves.
If someone came to this board with $1,000 and found one good investment that yielded 50% in one week. ($1 stocks are very capable of this) thats now $1500 - 20 for in and out fees so $1480. Then next week another 50%, thats now $740 - 20 = $720 + $1,480 so now they have $2200. Quite possible if we produce good results. Say in 3-4 months that initial 1k is now $4k or $5k. Say in one year it turns to $10k now they actually have some savings. At the least they have something to protect them if they were to get fired or something else happens. They have a safety cushion.
That is my main purpose for this. I want highly experienced investors who have made millions if you will alongside people who are getting ready to buy their first share with their tips from work.
So god i write too much, you guys need to tell me to shut up. Anyways I don't want anyone feeling like they have to contribute or they need a good solid reason for why they can't right now. Instead I would love to later hear someone produced a good stock tip and it benefited someone else. I am fortunate enough to do this full time, actually blessed. I love my life couldn't ask for a better one which is why I would love to help others be able to do this full time or at the least suppliment their income. Lets face it todays salarly isn't enough for most people to retire on.
In fact most Americans live paycheck to paycheck and are in jeopordy of losing everything if they had to go 2 months without an income.
So with that said if you know anyone else who could benefit from this board in any way or anyone that can bring value to others in any way please refer them here!
In my personal opinion before we decide where we are going we need to know where we came from. Meaning we find a minimum of 3-5 recently successful stocks and analyze them over the duration of their success as well 3+ prior months. The further back we look the more accurate we will be.
As far as successful I mean steady stocks that have produced high returns over say 3 months. Not a MPET, CRK, TOPS, SAEX nothing like those. ACIA is a unique one because prior to Friday it still had amazing growth. The reason it blew up the way it did was it beat revenue by 102%. Okay saw that coming, at 3:45 am when it was still i think 8 or 10% for the day... oh well I got my funds coming next week! Until the stock market crashes... :P
Anyways sorry, once we have found commonalities within the recent successes we can they narrow down our search on the potentials.
My first guess would be to review the timeline of press releases for the previous success stocks. Beau this is one place barcharts is actually decent as they have a charting system that goes back anywhere from 1D to 10 years and show over that time frame the top winners and losers. I would say Pick the top winners from 1M 3M 6M 9M and 1Y. If we can all work together and do 10 of them that would really help to find the similar traits that led to their success.
Obviously no two stocks are the same and there will be many differences. However I bet there are similar patterns hidden within the stocks that we can find. Some of us might already have an idea of what to look at.
News and Earnings would be my first area to look. In my opinion those are the two biggest driving forces.
NEWS - Is huge for short term gains or losses but 1 article will fizzle out with nothing else continuing the momentum of the stock. If we can find a stock that has had a lot of media coverage over several months that is a good sign. Each article that comes out not only brings the previous back to life but adds additional strength.
If you have a company that has had 5 press releases in 2 months all positive. That stock is going to be looking pretty good for awhile. Not only does repeat coverage build momentum, that momentum has a better chance of lasting longer. Also I am not being bias but the bigger the agency that is reporting the stronger the affect. Why?
1. More people liste, watch, read from that source than the smaller ones.
2. Smaller news agencies will pick up stores from say money morning or CNNMoney and cover the story. Why? Because if a multi-billion dollar company is casting a certain story chances are it has merit.
Basically the bigger the broadcastign agency the more it will travel. Its harder for say and this is extreme your local newspaper which reaches 5000 people to to circulate enough for millions of people to read.
On the other hand CNN Money, Money Morning, Forbes, Reuters all did a story on GEVO for example. Not only do those agencies combined have millions of viewers. It will also hit the smaller news reporting agencies reaching further out.
Earnings are the next important thing because a lot of people place their entire investment decisions solely on the performance of the company and with good reason.
You don't want to buyu shares of a company that has over the last 5 years accumulated more debt, had major decreases in assets and revenue etc. Why? So you can lose money? The people who care most about this is typically buy and holders.
The second most are the day traders knowing that buy and holders will pick up or let go of shares based on performance.
The rest are the people who follow the day traders who are following the buy and holders.
That is not exact but the reason I put that out there is because the #1 Driving force in my opinion is human emotion/psychology.
GREED and FEAR.
I will post my breakout message i sent you previously Pleeb but for right now to keep it simple. A stock starts to climb, people get excited and buy, it starts to decline people panic and sell. That is the most basic concept behind it.
The thing that causes these changes are the spark that comes from news and earnings. People know based on previously good earnings reports and positive media the stock has good potential to grow. Slowly at first as people sit outside waiting to see if it will jump to new heights. As it does more and more people realize they are losing profits and they too jump in. Finally it runs at amazing speeds only to finally slow, and slow. Now people see the reverse coming and begin selling off to maximize their profits and get out before anything happens.
Then others see people selling off at lower rates and they get nervous and sell to perserve their profits. Now just like the ride up, as more and more people frantically sell to save profits or principal it begins to drop rapidly.
So with that said the biggest things I would look at is media coverage and earnings reports. I still have a couple watch lists from 08-02 and 08-10/11/12 that i will go back and look at. I might have a good way to quickly find all articles from newswire through ToS but if you download the list, copy the symbols to a new excel then type amex:symbol and do that a couple of times, flash fill it, and do it again with NYSE, NASDAQ, and OTCMKT (Sorry) u can upload them to goolge finance portfolio.
From there you can view portfolio related news and events. This is the main reason I use to goolge finance.
Aside from News and Earnings, look for Corporate actions such as dividends, conference calls, splits. Also SEC Filings, Are they taking on new debt, releasing shares, consolidating, look for Chapter 7 - end of the book? ;).
At this point you have a pretty good idea of fundamental analysis of each.
Another thing to look at as well is if you go to the list the first large segment of data was organized by trend strength. So from top to bottom is strongest to weakest. Is there a certain price point that has the most successful runs. (Remeber there are a lot more stocks from $1-$10 then there are $10 - $50 believe me I know. which means you can't say well most are at $1.) Once we have the fundamental side covered we can begin looking through the financials. Biggest thing most people immediate look at are the income/debt asset/debt debt ceiling. Income/revenue/cash flow liabilities and assets (not the same as assets/debt) What people want to see is debt decreasing over time and assets and really importantly cash flow and revenue increasing. It shows that the company is growing and getting bigger and stronger. Which means an investment in the shares will grow and get bigger and stronger.
The financials will take a bit to go through depending on how thorough you are but nasdaq, market watch, yahoo, almost any site has financials, they are easy to pull.
Next would be historical data. Really break down the numbers. Avg volume every week and month for desired time line. Backtesting is important. In fact this is where www.macroaxis.com comes in handy as it has all of these tools available. IF you find a stock that has matched all prior examples and are ready for the technical side, bring it to macroaxis.com it is free but very limited. I have an $8 account which is basic and actually still limited :(. But I can do like 40 stocks a day. 40 stocks a day if done thoroughly would still take me an entire day to do.
By this point we should be down to 5-10 stocks at most. These are the ones we monitor closely. Keep the other ones on the side and watch those as well but after this we should be pretty keyed in whats going to grow for the next 6-12 months. I will constantly make new upcoming lists each friday as many things can change in 1 week.
What seemed great last week might be fizzling out, not dead but sleeping, never lose sight of em. However something new might be waking up so I will constantly update.
I also suggest just for fun singing up for one of the sites i mentioned in my post to Beau you do not have an alert news site. They are incredible help as well.
Also one thing I do pre-market early early in the wee mornings before most of the world is awwake is start going through ToS. I have over 22,000 stocks on there. I just need a new computer with a fiber optics net that can handle the streaming of 22k stocks lol. However if you saw my previous post about my quick scan.
In pre-market all I do is click my volume tab so it lists top to least volume. Then I have that right next to my bid and ask tabs. Now it is just a matte of comparison.
What has volume (actually moving and not people adjusting the price to make it look good) and which stocks have a bid price that is higher than the LAST price. A higher bid with volume means that the stock is up in pre-market. a Lower ask than last price with volume means it went down. ITs that simple. If you have XYZ Volume 227,394 at 4:30 am (i live on west coast) and a BID of 7.89 with a LAST of 5.67 well now guess what you found something with potential. vice versa ASK of 7.89 last of 5.67, might be a good day to short.
Just don't go off that, check the news, check the earnings, check SEC filings and anything else that could have led to that much increase or decrease. This is why pre-market can be powerful. Its an opportunity to get in before all else based on the most recent events. However in my own experience spikes are not as accurate when judging the potential performance of a stock for the day. GREED can die down due to people being satisfied with their profit margin and getting out. But fear and panic can drive a price for days.
Before I started investing I never once thought the stock market could be so sensitive but after all my experience I have deemed the stock market the butterfly affect. If someone sells 1 share in New Zealand the Guy in Poland panics and sells all of his. Really its a joke but it has a lot of truth to it as well.
So my suggestion for the list. Start with news and earnings and work down. For anyone up in the early morning, keep an eye on pre-market see what it does and where it goes.
Once I wrap up a few other things I will begin on the list. if you have any other questions bud, please post em. The more we work together the more we can ultimately make!
Yes, i am corny and cheesey but you know what, a winning attitude delivers!
Barcharts is decent, its one of my top 3. Seeking Alpha, Benzinga, and Barcharts. They all have unique qualities and different features. I also use stock house as well but the top 3 are in order above.
I personally like to compare each site to the others to see the difference and watch to see which one is more accurate. The thing I like the most about Seeking Alpha is its updated alerts. They are extremely quick. Fill your portfolio with whatever stocks your watching and you will get immediate alerts as they come out. Coupled with their huge email variety of reports, and other data. They are definitely the best to have for up-to-date information. Alright before anyone yells, they are the best that I have found so far so if anyone knows another that is better I am certainly all ears.
Also Seeking Alpha has about 5M+ users making it a large network of investors. Best part is, everything you really need is free. Downside your portfolio is only allowed 250 or 200 stocks so your limited but if you create multiple accounts with multiple emails then you your potential is unlimited. Just have to stay logged into different emails to be able to get all of your alerts. For one browser though ;) you can do hotmail, gmail, yahoo right away for 600-750 stocks and then add any other email service you know. Then if you can use firefox and google chrome you can double it :) shh i didn't say that though.
Benzinga is also good for alerts as well but they have a more diverse view of stocks allowing for better analysis in my opinion.
Barcharts is good for statistics such as top gainers over X amount of time or top losers or similar things like that.
If your using a trade platform you will already have the benefit of all the charting systems they used and with more control over it.
Stockhouse really I just use for the forums. It has a large community as well and is a good place to find other people investing.
Here is a list of links for sites that I use that are free.
www.seekingalpha.com
www.barcharts.com
www.benzinga.com
www.stockhouse.com
www.thelion.com (decent forum but can be aggressive)
www.google.com/finance
www.macroaxis.com
www.yahoo.com/finance
www.nasdaq.com
www.zacks.com
www.marketwatch.com
www.otcmkt.com
www.moneymorning.com
http://www.incrediblecharts.com/indicators/twiggs_money_flow.php
Those are the ones I have bookmakred. I know there is more but I don't remember them all.
incrediblecharts - is great place to learn more about charting
google finance - can customize your news around your portfolios and has a nice portfolio system which I use it for. Its the first place I go to check for recent news as I have found they have the largest variety of news reporting agencies
yahoo finance - i really use it just for the conversations. I tried signing up for a group and now my yahoo mail gets bombed with singles adds. and no that wasn't the group I tried to join :P
money-morning - is one of the best financial news outlets in my opinion. They are unbiased and offer strong support for upcoming stocks. They are primarily free but they also have a sister company Money Map Press which is expensive but has professional analysts who have been investing in their fields for 15-20-30 years. Each package is like $1,500 for a year subscription. I had 2 but finally discontinued them but watching their stocks from when I first saw them. Are doing well. Some were MZOR, PAAS, IMMU (before and after their crush, was like 20% a day until they got kicked out of a medical conference then for 3 weeks it just plummited but looks like now its over its previous value)HZNP, TSLA, NVDA, NEO, there was like 26 i was watching I could provide the list later if I find it. Some of the not so good ones at the time i haven't checked recently, BOX & KROS.
stockhouse is good for its forums the other features i haven't used much so can't comment on them.
www.macroaxis.com - in my opinion is hands down the best analytical site. They have every possible measurement you can think of. It is free but on a very limited daily basis. Their lowest package is $8 and I personally find it well worth it.
thelion.com has a large forum and blog area but as I mentioned they can be kinda of um... aggressive.
www.marketwatch.com and yahoo.com are also good for pulling company financials and statistics.
www.nasdaq.com is the only site that shows smaller than 1 penny amounts in their historical data. so if your looking to analyze SGBY for instance nasdaq would probably be your best bet.
www.otcmkt.com is great for SEC filings, corporate actions and general news for pennies and other various stocks.
www.zacks.com is a very strong financial site but they push very aggressively for you to sign up.
however to fully answer your question, barcharts is a decent site. I just like to compare information from one site to the next to see which is more accurate.
Hope this helps!
Nice Beau, Yorba Linda is a nice city. I go there once and awhile with the wife. Fullerton I like just due to its rustic downtown appearance. Definitely would love to meet up sometime. As for the foreseeble future I am extremely tied up with trading, Investor Partnering Community as well as building these resources.
Then also having to assist my wife with her financing and other aspects. A 16 hour work day is not uncommon and that isn't including my lunch and dinner break. Once this community is rolling and resources are done and the leg work of narrowing down our best potential stocks is finished, I will have more time. However I have high hopes for this community and its potential thus I am working like a dog in hopes to get it moving in the right direction.
So I might not be able to meet up right away just because but as you said, you visit a few times a year so if I miss your next visit I would certainly make it up next time you are down. We can do lunch or something.
However I definitely look forward to meeting at some point. Pleeb01 is currently in my favorite part of the country, an area that I miss dearly but someday if we find the next big one. I will buy a house back home. Live up there during the summer and then here during the winter. Winter there is too frigid and summers here are just... ugh.
Please let me know if there is anything I can do though in the mean time that would benefit you or you feel would further benefit this community. Hope you have a great weekend!
I totally agree on that MJames, there are some penny stocks out there that have been around for years and still havn't hit a mkt cap of 50M Let alone 500M. Just achieving 50M is quite the accomplishment. As I previously mentioned SGBY I was not anymore but was invested in that company.
Its not as strong as PKKFF yet but quite promising none the less but it still has the same challenges and other unique ones due to regulatory statues of its product and research but none the less same problems PKKFF has.
For myself, thats the true attraction I have for pennies. Its not the oh my .001 shares will be equaled to Google in 3 years and I will surpass Warren Buffet. Nah, my excitement is following a startup company from the beginning and watching it grow. SGBY was probably the most involved penny I had. However waking up every morning to check news events, articles, any updated filings, anything I could find just to see if there was any new progress that SGBY had made was more fun than watching it go from .0027 to .0032 which is actually a considerable amount (thats the added bonus)
I know you enjoy pennies and that you are invested in PKKFF, however if you like diversifying yourself and investing on other areas. I am working to cut down a potentially profitable list based on 3 weeks of performance. Not one day huge gains but 3 weeks with a minimum of 15% gains over the 3 weeks.
I will continously post updates here if you want to check back and monitor it. I will not be suggesting or pushing any particular stock and always ask everyone to perform their own dd prior to investing. With that said hopefully I can narrow down the list more by Monday which I just posted the link for google docs in order to download.
The doc is in excel and needs to be converted to .csv if you wish to copy it into a trading platform such as ToS. Also if you use google finance and ever had issues with uploading a file. Its because google finance requires the exchange on the side of the symbol, for instance.
OTCMKT:PKKFF
otherwise there is a good chance google finance won't accept the symbol.
Good to hear from you Dino :).
Oh I am sure, especially if they are half as rambunctious as I use to be. My dad was a single father. God bless his soul he definitely had his hands full when I was a teen.
I hope you and your children get to enjoy the beautiful weekend. I am working on a list currently that I got from breaking down OTC Mkt, NYSE, AMEX, NASDAQ. I took the strongest uptrend stocks that had a minimum of 15% increase over the last 3 weeks.
ACIA if you got to see it at all yesterday opened at $67 and closed at $95. If you see my previous post, since May 18th ACIA was at $28, it has produced a 341% return in 3 months. An $11,200 investment using 65%% margin would calculate out to being $3.2 million in one year if ACIA or any stock we invest in had and kept that momentum.
It has a daily ROI of .74% this is the average based on ACIA which included all daily losses and everything in the prior 3 months. This is as real life as I can get building the ROI off actual performance for the prior 3 months.
@ .74% /w 70% margin = 5,981,117
@ .74% /w 65% margin = 2,392,805
@ .74% /w 60% margin = 1,196,437
My calculations also show that in order to achieve this any future stock we pick needs to have a 3 week average of 31% The list I compiled starts wiht stocks /w a 3 week average of 15% and goes up to 1,400% however in my experience anything that high is almost guaranteed to be a split. Although I think it was TGC i have to go back. 1:5 split on Aug 1st when it was trading above $4, in 10 days it came back to $4.
My goal for right now is to research ACIA more and see what made it so successful over the last 3 months and begin breaking down the list based on similar traits from ACIA. Right now its at 320 of over 22,000 stocks, however that was the easy part. Shaving it down now will take more work but if we could find 1 2 or 5 stocks like ACIA allowing us to split our capital to help mitigate risks then we would all be doing very well in 1 year.
Here is the link to the list:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1KmBW4CgrTJsSePYXSyKWSsOoM9vz0Lh20gR4EasXBf8/edit?usp=sharing
I also want to complete the DD, Watchlist Tracker and Stock Tracker excel and hopefully utilize them. I want to hopefully have this list narrowed down to 25-50 stocks by monday.
So thats what I will be doing this weekend. If you have any thoughts or feedback I would love to hear them Dino.