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Nice trade. Most of my shares were purchased about 6 months ago in the 1.50's, but better late than never. I've actually been adding a bit recently on dips. Never many shares available, though.
I agree that another good quarter should push us over 2 bucks.
We have been set adrift on a sea of low volume. Think we'll come back to the 1.74 level?
5/24/07, 6:15 PM
Interesting PR regarding the Dawson James reiteration. I like the fact they gave some actual reasons for their $4.00 target.
so what do you think now?
littlefish: ZNCM Divvy
Are you saying that the ex-div date is the payable date? If so, why? From what I know/read of dividends (admittedly not much), seems to me that the ex-div date should be 3 days before the record date (as someone else said). So, folks who held all last week are selling today because they'll get the divvy and the current, only slightly discounted pps. It is the folks who bought on Friday & and are selling today who may be sorry, as they may have missed the ex-div date of 3/6, making them ineligible for the div.
I can find nothing that says the payable date is the ex-div date.
http://www.sec.gov/answers/dividen.htm
http://www.investopedia.com/articles/02/110802.asp
Thanks for your help
bluebear
Wade: NTRZ
I've been following this one since last September (it was one of my PSL4 picks). I got in it for the breakout & the big run up, then got out a bit early at 2.40 - I could find nothing to justify the higher price. Agree that it's pretty speculative at this point. Nice day today though.
Hogfan - BJS:
We're looking good. Hoping for a little pullback to 26.85 or so to add. By the way, it's also an interesting put-writing opportunity, if you're into that kind of thing.
Hog- BJS: Yep it's looking good. Maybe you're a good luck charm. We should be alright as long as crude stops falling. The trader in me would've waited for the MACD to cross over a little more before entering (like today maybe), but the investor says go for it. Of course, the earnings release later this month could change the picture in either direction...
mrdmrd - what size screen are you using? I'm also a cheapskate free member, but I use a 19" screen. The ads stay well over to the right, no problem.
MSGI - My interest was piqued by the yogurt info. I'm not long VPHM, but I'm not afraid to short a stock (especially if its one-trick pony goes lame). Plus, it's cool that a cure or prevention could be so old-school. However, a quick Google of yogurt and C. difficile leads me to believe yogurt and/or its capsuled cultures has always been prescribed/used to help replace the good gut germs. Is this something new your wife's hospital is trying recently? Has the C-diff actually been completely eliminated? Thanks
Couple articles I found without much effort:
http://ibdcrohns.about.com/cs/antibiotics/a/antibioticssick.htm
http://www.gihealth.com/html/education/cdifficileRecurrent.html
Hogfan: BJS
The investor in me (he's the little guy in white that sits on my left shoulder) sees a company that is rebuying its shares (at signifigantly higher prices than current pps) at the expense of taking on LT debt. They either really believe the stock is a bargain or they are really making a big mistake (or it's something else beyond my understanding - always a possibility).
The trader in me (he's the little guy in red on my right shoulder) sees a solid company sitting in a zone of support from a cup-and-handle formed late '05/early '06.
When the two little guys agree, I usually go long.
From the 10-K:
"On June 8, 2006, we completed a public offering of $500.0 million aggregate principal amount of Senior Notes, consisting of $250.0 million of floating rate Senior Notes due 2008, with an annual interest rate of three-month LIBOR plus 17 basis points, and $250.0 million of 5.75% Senior Notes due 2011. The net proceeds from the offering of approximately $497.1 million, after deducting underwriting discounts and commissions and expenses, were predominantly used to repurchase outstanding shares of our common stock. In addition, the proceeds were used to repay indebtedness, fund capital expenditures and for other corporate purposes. As of September 30, 2006, we had $250.0 million of the Senior Notes due 2008 issued and outstanding and $249.7 million of the 5.75% Senior Notes due 2011 issued and outstanding."
And:
"On December 19, 1997, our Board of Directors authorized a stock repurchase program of up to $150 million. Through a series of increases, the stock repurchase program is now authorized to repurchase up to $2.2 billion. Repurchases are made at the discretion of management and the program will remain in effect until terminated by our Board of Directors. We purchased 48,366,000 shares at a cost of $499.0 million through fiscal 2004. During fiscal 2005, we purchased a total of 3,982,000 shares at a cost of $98.4 million. During fiscal 2006, we purchased a total of 31,725,882 shares at a cost of $1,133.3 million.
Subsequent to September 30, 2006, we have purchased 668,889 shares for $20.0 million through November 30, 2006 under our stock repurchase program as discussed in Note 14 of the Notes to the Consolidated Financial Statements. We have authority remaining to purchase up to an additional $449.3 million in stock as of November 30, 2006."
There's lots and lots of other good info in the 10-K, if you really want to get into it. It's very well-written and thorough, in my opinion: http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/864328/000119312506248527/d10k.htm
Of course, their rev/earnings/pps will be tied-in to the price of nat gas & crude, and hence the weather (still 50's here in western Ohio, and my kids have yet to make a snowman this year).
Hope this provides a start for you.
Thanks MSGI. Caught it right after I posted it. Tried to delete it, but could only edit it.
Oops wrong board
60 degrees in Ohio this morning. I can't remember it ever being anywhere close to this warm in January. Glad I'm not a ski resort owner - or a polar bear.
Mike -
Congrats on the profit, but why sell SVL now? Did it reach some pre-determined valuation target you have? The chart looks like more of a "buy" than a "sell" to me. Just curious - it's one of my largest holdings.
Thanks
OT: Bigpike: No, I haven't posted the link here, for several reasons:
1) Didn't want to be viewed as a spammer.
2) I'm still working on the site structure (I'm new to html). It's very, very basic (some same boring).
3) With the blog just starting, I'm not entirely sure what direction it's going to take. It may look entirely different a month from now than it does now.
4) It's going to be geared toward the masses, not the VMC Mensa-types. Plus, it's going to be trade-oriented, while most here seem to be investors. Of course, I'm not above posting links to some of the VMC'r's posts. Already have a link to this board on there.
There is a link to it in my profile, if you're curious. Of course, I welcome any suggestions.
OT: Stock Charts: Thanks Len & LT
I've emailed Market Watch to ask about the issue. I'm certain they don't much care about me using their charts now, (I've picked up only about 4 regular readers in this inaugural week), but I don't want to hear from them when I'm become the bloggers' equivalent of Jim Cramer (gotta get me a BuyBuyBuy button) with a following of millions.
OT: Stock Charting Tool?
I'm looking for a charting tool that will generate non-copyrighted charts that I can use in a new blog I'm starting.
I've always used Bigcharts, but if you read the fine print in their terms of use, the charts are for private use only - I'm not sure if posting on a blog constitutes private use or not, and if there is a fairly inexpensive way to get similar charts that I can use at my discretion, I'd rather use it. The ability to draw my own lines, notations, etc on the chart would be a bonus.
There are a gazillion programs available for charting, but rather than trying to sift through them, I thought I'd first consult the collective genius of the VMC board. Has anyone out there been through this? Any recommendations/suggestions?
Thanks
Peeker - I considered it, but sanity prevailed. iPods are flying off the shelf right now, and if they unveil a iPhone, the shorts could get murdered.
JP Morgan initiates HANS with overweight EOM.
NTRI: Nutrisystem down 8% for reasons I cannot yet determine. Closed near technical support. Anyone else follow this one? I've been looking for an entry, this may be it. Nice fundamentals, and still plenty of generously-proportioned Americans around (me included).
Stock closed at 67.60. June 65 puts fetching $7.60. Looks juicy if no real reason for the drop.
HANS: Nice slide show filed with SEC from recent presentation:
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/865752/000086575206000185/e991.htm
Slide show from recent presentation- interesting and informative:
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/865752/000086575206000185/0000865752-06-000185-index.htm
Bigpike: TGE - I thought and thought and thought about getting in around 7.75, but didn't - I just couldn't come up with a compelling reason to buy, although my gut was telling me to. Looks like the selling may be abating - money flow has leveled off. I'll probably jump in if it falls back down to those levels and holds.
Couple notes of interest - the stock has come back to the nice steady trendline that ended in May of '05 - could mean a support level. Also, MACD on a three year chart may be turning up.
In my opnion, it's quite undervalued. The lawsuits are frivolous - the bigger concern (as far as the market is concerned) is the "reason" for the lawsuits - the potential of options back-dating. This is the reason the stock is trading at a discounted PEG ratio. So many companies are dealing with this same problem, though, that it is becoming a yawner. The more people realize this (and MF has a nice article about the potential downside), the more are buying in.
As far as valuation goes, Monster's growth is amazing, and may get more so with the AB agreement.
Like sands through the hourglass... At this rate I won't finish in the top ten. Oh, well. It could be much worse.
Anyone lurking here? I'd like to get this board going with some constructive banter, and add some DD starters in the Ibox.
Berliet: HANS up quite nicely on high volume - buyout rumors, coupled with some short covering, I imagine. Think I'll drink a Monster (green)to celebrate.
TGE: Anyone have any thoughts on this? Stock has not gone anywhere lately. I re-did a valuation analysis on it, and it doesn't look particularly cheap, unless you assume better weather/crew efficiencies than they had last quarter, or at least less start-up costs for the new crews. I'm not inclined to make these assumptions, but would appreciate any else's insights.
DWSN has taken off in the last few days, so that got me looking at TGE again.
Bobwins: I thought we were in a struggle for second. What the heck happened to KIK? Yikes. Until today, I could've said, "Yeah, Bobwins may beat me, but it's only for second place, and after all, I owe him a debt of gratitude for leading me to the VMC board."
Now it's a whole new ball game. If only I had some trades left... all I can do now is stand pat and hope none of my holdings moves to the pinks...
AAARGGGGH! So those were YOUR footsteps I was hearing. I never should've made public my desire to beat you - oh, the shame of it all... And to lose out of the individual tourney in the same week... it's almost more than I can "bear".
It's a race to the finish. May the (second to KIK) best man win.
11/22/06 7:22 PM
Berliet: HANS - congrats on your pickup at 25. Are you going to keep that portion, or sell for the quick stab? I'm debating myself - will probably wind up holding. Fundamentals are just too good, in my opinion, to allow the stock to stay down here unless something significant comes out of the options dating deal.
Berliet: HANS - I've been looking at it hard, and can't find a reason for it to be so low unless the options news is very, very bad. I listened to the cc twice through. MF article is overall positive as well:
http://biz.yahoo.com/fool/061109/116309385321.html?.v=2
I also added at 25 and will probably add more.
If it was that vague, I'd be more scared. It's the options accounting deal, which has come up for many companies as of late, big and small. It does carry risk because of that, but in my opinion a lot of that is already built in to the pps. HANS is no pink sheet/OTC fly-by-night, either, IMO.
I don't consider myself particularly brave, but just look for attractive risk/reward scenarios. I would also hope that (on this board, especially) no one acts on my suggestions, but uses them as a starting point for their own dd. Ideally, I'd like to get their opinions on this stock as well.
I don't drink Monster myself, but have tasted it - not too bad.
HANS: Not really a microcap, but looking more and more like it might be a reasonable value. Rev. growth of 60%+. Earnings not released due to options practices investigation, but can be guesstimated at 0.34 for quarter, barring any material impact from investigation. Closed today at 25.00 +/-. On conference call, company stated that it has yet to reap the benefits of the Anheuser-Busch distribution agreement.
Disclosure: I'm long the stock, and will add more upon stabilization.
WOOOHOOO! - finally a daily win. The long wait is over - now I feel my first PSL is a success.
CMT: Very nice earnings. Now to see if they can sustain...
PBME: Interesting company and stock. You have to be patient to get shares, but someone got a bunch a couple days back.
Primarily testing lab services for drug companies. Huge growth, but don't know how much going forward. Barely profitable, but company PR seems to indicate things look rosy ahead. Balance sheet doesn't look too bad, either.
I don't like using too much chart analysis with ultra-low volume stocks, but right now it's looking like a pretty nice ascending triangle, IMO.
I even started a board for it - my first one, so don't expect much if you visit.