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Fabius, well said. the first time the company has announced good news in months and the stock takes a nose dive. That has nothing to do with the way the company has been run but is the manipulation which kept us from going higher when we should have been.
One is as bad as the other. we are getting squashed from both, poor management and the manipulation.
I sure hope you are wrong! Just what we need another dead approval that will only cost us another 1.5 million in bonuses and no revenue.
I would agree with these estimates. I suspect, between 1.2 to 1.7 million for 4QE. Focalin sales have been stable so there is no reason we do not see the same revenue from that.
As for the recent 2 dose launch we will not see any improvement until 2QE18. the revenue for Focalin is received and reported in the next quarter. The timed the launch on the last day of the fiscal year so sales wont begin until 1QE18 which means revenue wont get reported until 2QE18.
Then, while we know the Bloomberg data has issues, we do know the scripts at least had doubled from the previous quarter so its a good guess that seroquel revenue will increase.
seeing that we posted 1.2 million in revenue last quarter, I feel its safe to assume 1.2 t 1.7. But again the analyst are setting us up for failure f not meeting expectations when they post unrealistic ones.
Doog, well said. I agree. if one goes back and reviews the PR's they were seeking a partner in 2014 for Rexista AND Regabatin, Then in mid stream he changed the strategic plan and decided to go it alone. He thought he would get more money if he presented plug and play drugs and he decided to start his own manufacturing. We have been stalled ever since. Dr Odidi messed up. He is a brilliant scientist. the original plan was to formulate difficult to manufacturer drugs and license them out. That Plan would have worked. very little overhead and sustain off the profit sharing and milestone payments and license fees. Instead he thought he would be ripped off and people would steal his technology and he felt he would go it alone. Look at where we are. stuck in the mud.
2 Years and Regabatin has been sitting in a shelf. waiting for tens of millions of dollars to do the needed studies, while the competition now moves in got approved and now can hold up any approval by claiming patent infringement as well as generic competition after next year.
Podras, already proved in the lab just needs a small limited human study to prove concept and he could license it out for hundreds of drugs to be added as NDA supplement apparitions and probably be on market within 2 years and what is his plan? to submit 20 some NDA's as competition? LMAO, we all see how Rexista is going. In other words, its never going to happen. Not until he is ready to retire and someone else buys up the company.
but he will be happy thumping his chest claiming what a success he was. making his million a year in bonuses and salary and proudly claiming his 45 patents. as the stock sells for $1.50. I have seen it before. very intelligent people with no common sense thereby making dumb decisions.
wim, I agree its out there. I recall reading over it when we were trying to determine if they got exclusivity milestone if the FDA approved PAR's drug rather than IPCI's. so the contract is out there. Its only one however. we enever could find the MNK one which lead to a lot of confusion even in regards to the upfront payment. which turned out not to be upfront LOL
Fabius, I agree. we are getting scr*wed from both ends. The manipulators as ell as Management. Management forgets they are publicly traded and the shareholders own the company. As long as He gets to file patents and collect a paycheck they are all happy. they could careless about share price. They have stated so numerous times when I called in. claiming they are too focused on issues at hand. LOL That just set up a ripe field for the manipulators. which I had complained about for some time pointing it out.
Fabius, exactly my point. the manipulators are just as bad as management when it comes to the current debacle.
trend. I disagree. They just put out a positive PR and we sank to new lows. their lack of PR's clearly have nothing to do with the share price. the manipulators are in control.
doog, really? it wont be difficult to pull the blue sheets for a class action. they need to be pulled in order to establish the class. just saying. wink... wink
This is still correct information. Nothing else much happening except discovery and Purdue dragging their feet as IPCI has made a 3rd request for production of documents. They can only stall so long as the Markman hearing is set.
Fabius, you are correct in what you said. If he wants to run a company like this he should have kept it private. Or as Wim states, he should have just stayed in University. apply for grants and develop technology and apply for patents. He clearly is lacking in business.
Doog. so sad. he is so worried about protecting his technology he forgets it does no good if you do nothing with it to partner it! he wont partner it and in a certain amount of years all those patents become free domain anyway.
Chainma. LOL....Ok that was a good one. you are right, he would tell you hes doing the job of 10 men and deserves a raise. my only comment back would be "yes, you are but not well" LOL
Fabius, I think these are the numbers to keep track off and compare;
Wim, I agree. The numbers, for whatever reason are way off. The one thing I noticed was the very small over all sales based on script numbers. That is I think is the most important number for us to gauge Seroquel.
if you take just the last report of Seroquel you are lead to think that 1 prescription costs $677. That actually is reasonable. I take numerous meds and a 3 month supply runs from the low of $400 to a high of $1600. Then we have no idea if they are scripts for 90 day supply or just a 30 day supply.
what you then have to take into account is that $677 for each script is retail price. once you take off costs of distribution, cost of advertising, costs for packaging,price adjustments for medicare reimbursement, possible company pricing coupons, overhead, manufacturing etc. by the time you get to the end, just what is the profit that ends up getting spilt? maybe $50 dollars on each script? even say $100. if the company is reporting only 726 scripts that is only 76,000 dollars profit for that week. NOT the actual sales.
So I think one way to gauge is to look at the overall prescriptions under MNK and that those numbers go up. so until then, I agree we may only see 1.5 million in revenue for 4QE17. This would also explain the company pushing back their forecast of CFP until 2QE18. They know that for now these contracts are locked out and they need to wait to reenter and bid.
Tilator, honestly, you are not this naive are you? selling the generic is just like selling any other drug. it costs millions. you need to package it. You need to distribute it. your talking about putting it on a pharmacy shelf LOL. in my area alone there are over 100 pharmacies. do you know how many tricks and people that would take just to stop at each one? thats why pharmacies deal with distributors who lock in deals where they MUST buy from them. hence why new arrivals like MNK and seroquel are squeezed out of the market for the first year or so. you cant just walk up to a pharmacy and peddle a drug like a back alley narcotic sale. LOL
you keep saying, your not looking back but what the company has now. you are correct they have 2 approvals. but they just need to partner them. if the company partnered each generic they have and each generic brings in just 4 million a year. only 1 million a quarter. the company would generate 36 million a year. Thats just on the generics. they do not need to get involved in any sales or distribution. just get them approved and get them partnered. 1 million a quarter per drug. they spend 13 million a year in operating csts which gives them 23 million a year profit. they could then continue the research and partner the NDA's get another 15 million in up front costs. and now your talking 38 million in profit. thats a dollar a share! do that for his pie in the sky 20 opiods and for the next 20 years the company is making $1 a share PROFIT. based on next to nothing revenue and partnerships. then we are not even talking about revenue from those NDAs !
The original business model would have worked. he got greedy and wasnt happy to only get $15 million up front and look where we are. NOTHING is moving.
Tilator, It depends what you are referring too. I have been investing in pharma stocks for just about 40 years now. so I am very familiar with all the aspects of the industry. I also personally worked in the business sector in the legal profession working directly with the Federal Government for a large defense contractor. Not actually working with the FDA but the DoD, which when you work with one agency you tend to find out they all work the same. but with my legal background, I have a good understanding and comprehension of the Rules and regulations going along with the FDA. so, that is my background. So I feel confident that I can articulate my reasons for why I formed my opinions.
I have been invested in IPCI since 2012. I recall the original business model, which is why I invested in it. They were touting themselves as a technology company. one to formulate hard to manufacture drugs then partner them out. THAT is why I decided to invest. even with the lead scientist and founder being the CEO, which was a red flag. The business model made sense. You keep your costs and overhead low, you formulate drugs and partner them off, generating revenue thru profit sharing and licensing arrangements. while your profits are limited than if you manufacture yourself such as a stand alone company, your overhead is extremely low and therefore profit margin s much higher.
What happened here is Odidi changed the business model mid-stream without telling anyone. it just sort of happened. Rexista was to be partnered on 2014! At some point, Odidi changed his mind and decided to go it alone even further and now Rexista is suppose to be "plug and play" which means take it the entire way to approval before partnering.
The same thing happened with Regabatin, which has been shelved since 2015, again supposedly waiting on a partner. My guess is he is now waiting for funds from Rexista to go that alone as well, which is ridiculous. the value of Regabatin goes down as we inch closer to lyrica going generic in 2018. As well as Pfizer now having the first ER approved recently. that will give them market share plus the ability to hold IPCI up in court claiming they are patent infringing.
so the NDA pipeline is now all messed up. the ANDA is just as bad. generics are hotly competitive. look how big MNK is even with their network and the small percentage of the scripts they have taken so far with Seroquel. No way, IPCI should have undertaken getting into manufacturing as well. The company does not have the man power to effectively operate a manufacturing business when the CEO needs to micro manage everything. something else stalls, such as partnering the NDA !
we would be much further ahead had he stuck to the original business model. Rexista and Regabatin would have been partnered. he would have secured partners for the ANDA's and would have cash to be pursuing the next phase in his technology advance which is Podras. which if the only thing he had to work on was proof of concept he would have done by now as he would have had the cash and even that would have probably been licensed out and we would have had that already added to some other drug as an NDA-S !
so yes, in my opinion seeing the potential we could have had, I see working on manufacturing for generics as a complete waste of resources.
Tilator, I am not mixing the two. You absolutely have the same issues selling a generic as you do an NDA. You need personnel, networking and connections. sometimes its the connections more than anything else. in the generic space the only thing you have to offer is price. a lot of times that doesn't even get you the contract its your connections.
but you totally missed what the point was. The company screwed up by abandoning the original business model. they are not setup for distribution and manufacturing and sales. they never intended to be. the profit margin is small on generics anyway and is not much better on NDA's as then your costs go up exponentially. so they would have been better to go back to what they could have done best, which is the science. develop the drug and license and or partner it off and keep overhead low and just rake in profit.
the only reason this didn't work is Odidi's unwillingness to allow a partner to take control of his technology.
Tilator, I have to totally disagree with you on this one. The worse thing this company ever did was expand the manufacturing capabilities. Generics is tough and tight business to break into. You would need a massive sales force as well as a massive network for distribution. was involved with a company which was breaking into the market with NDA's. on average their sales force and distribution was well over 100 million ! it took 2 full years to just break even.
The company needs to get back to its original business model. which is designing hard to make medications then partner them out for either profit sharing and or licensing out the technology.
Under this model you get the best of both worlds. Odidi is a brilliant scientist. Your overhead is negligible,needing only labs and low amount of workers. As soon as you obtain the approvals the partnerships start bringing in revenue, which is self sustaining of the modest operations and gives you a chance to move onto your next invention.
The reason this business model failed is Odidi. once he invented the technology he is unwilling to follow through with the next step which is partner it out. I personally think ts a bad taste left in him with Biovail, where they used him and he got got nothing in return yet he made the rest rich. Now he is afraid by partnering they will steal his technology. all of a sudden, instead of partnering his inventions he started changing gears and thought he could manufacturer himself. why? because he doesn't trust anyone with the technology! while this may work with the generics, it will never work with Rexista, Regabatin and now even Podras technology. which is why we haven't seen any partnerships!
we need to get Odidi to realize we will never be a major pharmaceutical. we could be a huge technology giant however! He needs to secure his patents, develop the drugs and then partner. from that point on, rely on the legal system to take to court any company, which steal his technology.
Regabatin has been sitting idle for 2 years waiting on a partner. Rexista, with what they filed, could have been filed 2 years ago! Podras only needs to be proven in animals and it could be licensed out for hundreds of other drugs to start NDA supplements ! partnerships with those 3 would generate at least 50 million up front giving more than enough money to allow Odidi to sit in the comfort of his lab to develop the next Podras! and then the upcoming royalties and future milestone payments even more!
we certainly do not need to be adding to overhead to try and go it alone in the generic market. All the man needs to do is get back to his original business model!
tilator, the only ones who know is IPCI and they aren't talking. my guess, they probably received some communication from the FDA but no clue where it stands. lets face it, there is a reason 6 of the companies ANDA's are years old waiting on approvals. The FDA isnt that backed up any longer.
how sad when other smaller pharmers have captured a stronger script sale than MNK. really Dr Reddys lab has 30% more! unreal. But then we have someone like PAR which still has yet to lauch its last 2 doses which were approved a year ago this month! and IPCI is sitting there clueless as to why. I think I would be calling someone and reminding them what the "Faithful Performance" section of the contract means.
has anyone heard from Impact and his attempt to get a meeting? just curious.
Doog, I think you are too hard on yourself. right now we all are in disbelief for what Odidi has done to this company. However to say you wish you had sold after the adcomm the price opened at $1.140 and went down from there. So to say you wish you had sold back then means you d not see the PPS recovering above that $1.40.
Honestly, I do not see things being that gloom and doom. I think we will be CFP by 1QE18. Seroquel has had a late start and I think competitors already had contracts locked up and it just takes time to build the market share. Par also still has two doses to release! we have seen continued improvement quarter over quarter in revenue and that will continue.
Next, I think we see at least 1 ANDA approval within the next 6 months, which is partnered with MNK. I also think within that same time the company releases news of the additional tests which should be positive.
The Markman hearing is set for April. at which point afterwards, we will get direction from the court on how he is leaning towards the litigation. unless Odidi did infringe, which lets face it all his patents have to been for something LOL, we then get a good indication of a favorable outcome and possibly even early settlement from Purdue. But even without early settlement, just a favorable PR indicating a favorable outcome from that hearing will be a big boost.
at which point, in my mind, I would be surprised f we are not trading at least at the $2.50 to $3 range in the next 6 months to say sometime 2QE18. So,in my mind we hold. AND in this time frame continue to put pressure on the board to hold them accountable for Odidis failure as CEO. His inability to partner and his failure to grasp the gravity of allowing something like Regabatin to sit on a shelf the last two years and for failure to find a market for 2 other approved drugs.
wim...LOL good one.
I see all these posts stateing "Odidi needs to do this" Odidi hasn't delivered" "Odidi needs to bring on help" "Odidi needs to step aside and let competent person take over" and the list goes on.
I have not known one CEO to ever voluntarily step aside. They only do if the public outcry is so loud and they are in the news every day OR they are forced out by the board.
I suggest you read the below and maybe , just maybe its time shareholders start voicing their frustration to the one group that can make a difference! just a thought. but if you have time to vent here, do you have time to let the people know who can make a difference and continual to do so on a regular basis even if ts just once a month to remind them its been a moth and nothing has changed.
just take a look at what THEY are supposed to be doing;
Doog, understand when I say Regabatin is dead, I mean as far as any valuation factor for next 7 years as outlined. Then because of generics coming on market in 2018 AND having to compete against another ER product which will have been established I feel the value is now decreased and we wont be able to properly value it until sometime in the future. so for any current investor, unless they were planning on holding long term beyond those 7 years, I see it as as dead issue for any price effect to help us.
as for the all the activity on the patent side, it is what he does. Wim outlined it the best. he is acting like he is a researcher at a University using grant money and the end product is another patent.
We already read where he has initiated another companion to the Podras patent! for god sake it hasn't even been proven in humans yet and he s going after another patent for it!
the only thing these patents do will help him win his cases in court o prove he used his own technology. but he is forgetting they need to be put to use. it does no good without a partner which he has failed to secure in the last 2 years, which they know they need. so he continues to waste funds bolstering his patent as the drug sits idle.
as for keeping us in the dark, you are correct. if it wasnt for me just happening to question the year end last year when were we even told they filed another ANDA? they have yet to even notify us about that one!
Numbers, this is what the latest discussions have been about regarding IPCI wasting it's pipeline.
IPCI should have partnered Regabatin 2 years ago after its IND and they knew they needed extensive and costly testing and therefore needed a partner.
Now, IF they ever partner it, it will take roughly 3 years to complete the tests a year to get the application through the process and now they will get sued by Pfizer as Pfizer wll want to protect its market share and therefore IPCI infringed on their patent. Thereby stalling it further for a another good 18 months.
currently, I see Regabatin as a dead issue. Its easily 7 years out based on the above and then that assumes an immediate partnership. one has to ask, why wasn't it partnered already? My guess is Odidi can not secure the deal. he probably wanted too much money, felt they were "ripping him off" and then decided to go it alone like Rexista and make it "plug and Play" using funds from a Rexista partnership to do the tests himself.
If I am correct then we see no progress on it until after Rexista is settled and marketed and thats another year and half down the road before that 7 year clock starts ticking.
so, I am no longer holding hope for Regabatin in the near future. Odidi will squander another asset away.
bluelucky. I can not provide "legal advice" however, from a purely personal perspective, I noticed that the company has since removed their corporate bylaws from their website. (no comment) But going off memory of what I read, the Board of Directors have the ability to call a special meeting of the board at any time as well as a duty to meet quarterly. I know I requested them back in July, to convene one. The Board was specifically charged with overseeing the performance of top management, as well as setting compensation for them, specifically mentioned were CEO, COO and CFO.
If one feels, the CEO has been doing a poor job, one must covey those feelings and outline them to people who oversee the position.
doog. LOL I wouldnt say I am being overly pessimistic with my outlook just drawing a logical conclusion.
1. we know they need additional expensive tests, that was laid out by the company. this is a major category 3 trial with a lot of participants and end points. you do not do those in 12 months. sometimes it takes that long just to get your participants. so I give 2 to 3 years. that is AFTER they partner it.
2. once those are complete and you can file the application that takes a good 9 to 12 months without priority status for review. within that time frame they will now get sued. thats a given. with Pfizer coming out with they own ER Lyrica they will claim the same as Purdue as Purdue is now that IPCI has infringed on patents. If Odidi holds true, he knows he didn't so he fights it, instead of settling, that thats anther 18 months to trial. we are seeing that time frame now.
add them all up! he would have partner today and the above is assuming the application goes well with no kick backs, and if partnered today you would still be looking at 6 years. I added the extra time knowing that if Odidi was that close to a partner he would have signed it rather than diluting again. hence my realistic expectation for Regabatin is 7 years minimum.
NOW,the real question is if he partners up front that would be nice for share price as we would get a partnership with upfront cash. BUT my gt is telling me, he turned down offers thinking they were too low so he was going to wait and use the cash from Rexista to try and do the Cat studies himself! which if he does that places Regabatin 2 more years further behind AND no infusion of cash. if he thinks he wants to make that "plug and play" as well. if he does that in 7 to 9 years he has just damaged the potential for the drug.
Im just being realistic. unless something changes. I do not see the huge potential like I once did for the company.
unless in that time frame he does as I always felt could be the nuclear option. he doesnt care about share price now. he uses it as a cash cow to provide funding for his inventions, leaving the price to stagnate around $2 to $3 a share possibly $5 depending on other generic approvals or any deal with Rexista, but then his goal is build up the technology and when he is ready to retire he just outright sells it for $15 a share. using the technology as the catalyst. he gets his money in the end because he still holds 5 million shares between with his bonuses etc.
Fabius, I have to concur somewhat with wim. Regabatin may not be dead but it may as well be. what Dog found was great but it shows us more of the same.
Odidi has spent the last 2 years on research and patents. Thats it. Rexista was filed, and as we found out could have been filed with the same information 2 years earlier.
Odidi has used the last 2 years and capital raises to do nothing but further his research and apply for patents. He is either unable or unwilling to partner. My guess is the latter.
The company held the IND for Regabatin in 2015 and was given direction. It was after this direction the company announced they will need to partner the drug because of the enormous cost and trials required. My guess is, he had suitors but turned them down thinking his "technology" was worth more than they were willing to pay. so what does he do? he goes back to enhance the patents to improve them, thinking it will bolster his position.
what happened was he, and we, were left behind in a sail boat waiting on the wind while others were in power boats leaving us behind.
The fact is its great to improve the patents but we are still stuck with the issue that Regabatin goes nowhere without a partner. Now what has happened, Pfizer came out with their own ER Lyrica and Lyrica goes off patent next year. which means Regabatin will have to compete with Generics and Pfizer will automatically sue IPCI for patent infringement even when IPCI does file the application for Regabatin. why? because that is another way to stall Regabatin just like Purdue is doing with Rexista and keep the competition at bay for another 2 years. It wont matter that IPCI has mutiple patents. is just means they will win at trail. The other party still gets to file their lawsuit and hold things up until they can prove their innocence. its what big pharmas do.
so that brings us to the reality. Regabatin is easily 7 years out. once they partner it, they have 2 to 3 years of trails, another year to file application and another 1.5 year to get through the court system and then hopefully, no refiling issue but then another 1 year gain final approval. Now you say that doesnt equal 7 years. No it does not, but we haven't signed a deal yet have we. My guess is he can only do 1 thing at a time and it will be 2 years until we finally settle Rexista and get back through the FDA and partner it and get up and running and THEN he will go to Regabatin.
LOL. We all knew Purdue's cars were not there. It would be highly unethical at this juncture had they been.
Not sure why all the gloom and doom about the lower Seroquel number. we saw the exact same thing in September. about the same time frame. my guess is, it has to do with when 30 day month supplies run out and dont get refilled on time due to people with money issues. I just see it as a natural pattern at this point sort of like Focalin numbers dropping in summer months off because kids are on summer break.
Tekterra. Hence my comments months back after Glucho was approved and no deal was immediately announced. A good CEO is willing and able to adapt to market conditions. when Odidi filed these ANDA's they were valid. Now, some not so much. therefore why not abandon them ? if he cant market them they only costs us millions in bonuses to sit on a shelf.
Numbers ! glad to see your still here. I hadn't seen your posts for a while. Thanks for that update.
Fabius. You get the gold star for the day LOL.
Angelo, we would be so lucky if the case is settled in a such a manner.
One thing I like is now the numbers for September were extrapolated as I was inquiring about. The numbers reported by week add up to 2020, but now taking into account the last week of August was reported in September we now have "good" slid numbers for September.
of importance is seeing that September alone posted more sales that the entire 3QE numbers of June, July and August. when you also look at Focalin, you see those numbers going up as well so its safe to say we should at least earn the 1.2 million.
as stated, what is the actual split then for Seroquel? if not that high we may only see 2 million for Revenue in the 4QE.
Doog, well summarized. I certainly hope everyone takes their time and instead of writing on here for one day, use the same amount of time to correspond their thoughts to the BOD.
I have stated this before, the CEO and CO answers to the Board. It is their fiduciary duty to oversee the actions and competency of the CEO and COO and other management staff and assess their pay and compensation.
I think if one has time to write on these forums they have time to write to the BOD if they truly are concerned. I know I did back in July. come September, we saw that survey come out. while Doog feels it may be Patient who instituted that, I personally feel it was done and the bequest of the Board.
The more people willing to give other names and address along with shares owned and tell them you are holding them accountable for the actions of the CEO and tell them how you feel.
lets face it, there is a reason we stand at $1 a share. and probably if I researched it, a lower market cap then when I first bought in back in 2012. I Know I initially bought in at $1.82 and think they only had total outstanding shares of around 18 or 21 million shares. I forget exactly now. He has proven his plan has not worked to me. The Rexista application they filed could have been filed 2 years after the did the fed BE study. They didnt have to wait on Paodras nor did they do the studies for the oral and nasal. so there was no reason it couldn't have been filed back then. Regabatin the same. the IND was completed in 2015 and they said they now know what is needed and they need to partner it. thats it.
so what was done in the last 2 years? he goes off track and starts going to manufacturing and into Podras. putting the two lead candidates on the back burner as well as the rest of the ANDA's. and when two ANDA's do get approved, he was too busy to even partner them.
lay out a scenario like the above and then ask the BOD, do you find that acceptable? and demand a reply.
Hebrew, I think the e-petition is fine thought. Do not wait on me however. I believe it would be advantageous to begin one now,. Understand, I will not even know the status of my case for maybe another month and tat is assuming I get lead. at which point, the slow wheel starts turning. look at the Purdue case which is already going onto 9 months and they are just at Discovery. He will have the ability to settle quickly if takes the offer but my guess is he will arrogantly fight it. at which point, I play the cards dealt and go for the throat. I suspect he won't be open to the terms until it gets further in and if he figures he is loosing. That is when desperate men seek the solution. so I suspect we do not get that point for a couple years. before that time this e-petition as well as elections could come much quicker.
let the selling begin. I see a 50k offer for sale at $1.05. I figured they would start driving down once they could. good luck longs