doog. LOL I wouldnt say I am being overly pessimistic with my outlook just drawing a logical conclusion.
1. we know they need additional expensive tests, that was laid out by the company. this is a major category 3 trial with a lot of participants and end points. you do not do those in 12 months. sometimes it takes that long just to get your participants. so I give 2 to 3 years. that is AFTER they partner it.
2. once those are complete and you can file the application that takes a good 9 to 12 months without priority status for review. within that time frame they will now get sued. thats a given. with Pfizer coming out with they own ER Lyrica they will claim the same as Purdue as Purdue is now that IPCI has infringed on patents. If Odidi holds true, he knows he didn't so he fights it, instead of settling, that thats anther 18 months to trial. we are seeing that time frame now.
add them all up! he would have partner today and the above is assuming the application goes well with no kick backs, and if partnered today you would still be looking at 6 years. I added the extra time knowing that if Odidi was that close to a partner he would have signed it rather than diluting again. hence my realistic expectation for Regabatin is 7 years minimum.
NOW,the real question is if he partners up front that would be nice for share price as we would get a partnership with upfront cash. BUT my gt is telling me, he turned down offers thinking they were too low so he was going to wait and use the cash from Rexista to try and do the Cat studies himself! which if he does that places Regabatin 2 more years further behind AND no infusion of cash. if he thinks he wants to make that "plug and play" as well. if he does that in 7 to 9 years he has just damaged the potential for the drug.
Im just being realistic. unless something changes. I do not see the huge potential like I once did for the company.
unless in that time frame he does as I always felt could be the nuclear option. he doesnt care about share price now. he uses it as a cash cow to provide funding for his inventions, leaving the price to stagnate around $2 to $3 a share possibly $5 depending on other generic approvals or any deal with Rexista, but then his goal is build up the technology and when he is ready to retire he just outright sells it for $15 a share. using the technology as the catalyst. he gets his money in the end because he still holds 5 million shares between with his bonuses etc.
