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Can you state plainly what your position is regarding 2-73? You seem to be hinting at negatives without saying anything definite. Tell us your take. Take off your mask.
Quite true...and please tell me why we are talking about this subject?
Yes...it takes a lot of time.
Yes...the company has extremely capable people working on the planning of the trials to minimize problems.
Bringing this up is like saying that the sky is blue. We all know already.
The trial will last a year. Why are you "concerned" about how long enrollment takes?
Eh-hem...Your FUD is showing...
Efficacy does need more testing. But it is incorrect to say that efficacy has not been proven at all. It has TO AN EXTENT been proven. A larger trial is needed merely to get data that confirms the results in their entirety.
Dismissing the proven efficacy is just as obtuse as saying we should get approval now.
The results we have so far are not inconclusive the way you are describing.
It is a fact that the safety results of the trial (which was the actual reason for the phase 2a trial) were conclusive and complete. Rock-solid safety results.
It is also a fact that the cognitive scores improved for several patients. This improvement was over a very long period of time. Some of these cognition tests can be tainted by placebo effect. However, for those who understand how the tests work, it is a fact that because of the nature of SOME OF THESE cog tests, placebo effect cannot taint the test results.
So, can we say that the scores were inconclusive? Yes and no.
Some of the testing requires a placebo control. Some does not. All of the tests would benefit from a larger sample size, but that doesn't negate the great results we saw.
Bottom line...we have several AD patients who saw amazing results in their personal life. For them the results were conclusive. The upcoming phase 2/3 will erase any lingering doubts.
If they're trying to get Rett data out this year they're out of time. Gotta start NOW.
We are speaking hypothetically and forecasting the world years down the road when 2-73 has a name and is approved as SOC for several disorders.
At that point BIIB will have nothing to offer us.
Yes...or they could flush their money down the toilet, or burn it in the street. Any of those three options is about the same value.
BIIB is old news. Let them wither and die.
If we attain that level of success, what would be the advantage of taking on the dead weight of BIIB?? They would have nothing to offer but yesterday's news.
Going to be a great week for Longs.
Missling has commented on this already. He stated (and I'm paraphrasing) that we need to get further along with development so that the prospective partners would maybe then be willing to make reasonable offers.
Clearly, 2-73 has broad applications across a spectrum of CNS disorders. It's applications seem quite far-reaching. Distinguished scientists with reputations to protect are freely associating themselves publicly with this compound and company. Anavex is going to destroy the competition in this space within the next few years.
Imagine the world 10 years from now. Quite possibly several disorders which have no meaningful treatment could be made much more manageable or possibly reversed. And who knows how many other successes will be had in the next decade. Fun to think about.
Retttrial will get it to make a meaningful move. Everything else, including day to day bull is meaningless to Longs.
PK/PD will not do anything to boost sp. Rett very well may be underway before Sept conference.
Patiently wait as events unfold. It's going to be awesome!!
Possibly...but maybe they are wording it that way because it's in the future. It could be that they will indeed have the trial started before Sept 11.
It's an easy edit to start the trial before the conference and then go to the conference and say, "actually, as we have already announced, the trial is already underway".
If not, no biggie. If so, awesome news!
This will continue till we get into next trials.
Data=nothing.
Conferences=nothing.
Adding to SAB=nothing.
Talk=nothing.
None of this will make any difference or interrupt any of the plans for the manipulators. The only sure way to stop them dead in their tracks is with real meaningful progress.
START THE RETT TRIAL.
The reason for the sell-off is the same as for the huge buy-in today. Lots of investors wanting to own AVXL today. Picking up huge blocks of shares at a steal.
Manipulation will die down after options are expired.
Well,,,there's also the fact that they are currently in a MTA (partnership) with BIIB and are testing 2-73 for MS....
What you have unwittingly described is the very reason we should be excited. As the company continues to show optimism that all you stated should happen this year, it only compresses the timeline. It means the catalysts are going to come fast and often. It means huge gains before the end of the year. An unstoppable tsunami of great news.
Unless your pessimism is accurate, and none of this will happen this year. IMO you are greatly mistaken. But I've been wrong before, and will likely be again.
"I find your lack of faith disturbing."
-D. Vadar
Then you are asserting that the company is deliberately misleading investors? We have been told very recently that they plan to have three trials started this year, and they are hoping to have Rett data released before the end of the year.
How would they get data for a three month long study out this year if it didn't begin until December??
Nice to see day-traders and manipulators bailing out. I'm glad they are giving up. They should get out now so that they miss out on the catalysts coming in the next few weeks. Bwa-ha-ha!!
They really tried everything they could to rock the boat in the past month or so. Seeing lots of old FUD being spewed. Too many 'Tutes holding too many shares now. Price is too stable for rehashed parlor tricks to have any effect.
IMO we should see Rett get going very soon if they are still hoping to have data out this year. And that's just the first of many big news items coming soon.
Tons of catalysts coming up this year before December! Get ready for THE SHOW!!
Next 12 months is going to be action packed!!!
As has been stated by AVXL, they are not able to get a partnership until they are closer to approval/marketing. Why would we want to partner at this early stage instead of waiting for a while?? We'd have to give away the farm at this point, whereas if we wait till later we can call the shots.
Where did you hear the Wimbledon rumor??
Where did you hear the Wimbledon rumor??
From the abstract:
"an ongoing Phase 2a clinical trial in Alzheimer’s Disease demonstrates dose dependent cognitive IMPROVEMENTS."
This presentation is not about AD, although it is mentioned in the abstract. It looks like this one is talking about the additional new trials that are going to be done for other indications.
If we had 100,000,000 customers, and the cost per month for a prescription was $100...and figure 50% profit margin...
Our yearly gross profits would be $60B. Not too shabby.
I think that success and approval for 2-73 for Rett or PD would propel the stock. I'm not basing that on revenue, I'm basing it on speculation that since it works for one it should work for AD, especially with such good results from the non-confirmatory phase 2a.
There would be every reason to think that AD would be a success also.
Good points. But wouldn't you say that good results with Rett would imply continued good results with other indications like PD? Will the market see it that way and speculate that continued success will follow? If so, a successful Rett trial could in itself propel us toward those triple digits you spoke of...
At some point the mainstream investing community will go "all in" with Anavex. Things will change drastically in an instant.
I agree. Just don't want to hear the bellyaching next week from bashers. They'll be talking like we knew a presentation was coming even though it was never even hinted at.
At this point, talking strictly factually, there is no expectation of any involvement in AAIC by Anavex, and there is no known partnership in the works.
What we KNOW is that Anavex has three new trials set to start in the next ~5 months, of which Rett will start first. That will be followed by Parkinson's and Alzheimer's, but I don't think they specified in which order the last two will start (although guesses have been discussed here as if they were facts). They have said repeatedly that they have enough cash to go it alone for 2 years if necessary. And they are possibly going to get Rett trial data out this year.
With these known catalysts, this stock is a phenomenal value right now. If any of the additional catalysts happen (speculation) it would only increase the value.
Do your due diligence and invest with confidence.
All Longs would love to see fireworks in the next week or so. And I, for one, am still watching for something important to happen. But don't get your hopes up too high. There's absolutely no evidence of any deal happening. And as far as we know AVXL isn't even attending AAIC, let alone doing and kind of presentation. Speculation is fine, but remember it's simply guesswork based on feelings and tenuous theories and assumptions.
Ha ha ha!!! Complete silence from the company is completely getting in the heads of MMs and others who are looking to manipulate based on ANY news, be it good, awesome, or stupendous.
They don't know how to play this round. Lack of PR only hurts them, not Longs.
Tick tock...tick tock... closer every day to major breakout in the upward direction. Hold tight and enjoy the ride!!
GLTAL
IF (and that's a big IF) we are doing something meaningful at the AAIC, I would expect a PR either this Monday or Friday. At this point I'm not sure which one of those days I am leaning toward.
Even if there's nothing doing at the AAIC, I really do anticipate Rett trial starting before the end of July. It's by no means a deal-breaker for me if it doesn't, but it's just my guess.
GLTAL
If they are going to make an appearance at AAIC, when do you think the PR would come out? Any guesses??
I guess tomorrow or Monday.
You make a good point. I agree totally that the shares are very cheap right now. Way undervalued. We should be at new highs as soon as Rett gets started.