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Your opinion may need to be quite a bit humbler.
The Kraken might turn out to be something more like a baby lamb. Maybe even a preemie. Those announcements? Just another guess on the part of someone who has a terrible record of predicting KBLB’s future.
There is no reason to expect rapid expansion and scale up into other countries. KBLB will be struggling to meet and sustain metric ton levels of production. A year from now they might have found their footing and be ready to scale up from a metric ton per month to 5 metric tons per month. But Vietnam has sufficient capacity to keep up with what KBLB can produce for many years.
Baselessly inflating investor’s expectations is not a way to build a sound and steady investing community. It’s an invitation to traders to meddle in the stock at the expense of long-term investors.
Note that my comment was not directed to you.
You have probably forgotten the discussion 3 years ago that KBLB had solved all of the problems in producing their silks and only needed a ‘Contract to Produce’ to open the spigot.
WebSlinger kindly provided one example (among many) of this post. The poster I criticized does this sort of thing repeatedly.
In my understanding of the situation (where a PR with evident ‘good news’ is met by indifference or even a decline in share price), Thompson has lost considerable credibility on the part of investors. Although setbacks were a component of this credibility gap, the way the company managed the release of information about these setbacks (disguising them or hiding them for long periods, until the truth became apparent to most) is also a significant factor in the situation.
As to giving the company ‘room to fail,’ I have frequently provided timelines that indicated major events were months or even a year away, only to be ridiculed and attacked by those who felt success was at hand — and then were proven wrong.
Everyone who posted a ‘Tick tick’ or ‘soon’ message ought to consider sampling a little humble pie, instead of dumping it by the bucket-full onto those who advocated that success was not going to arrive as precipitously as was intimated.
You get 1/100th of a point for legal correctness. Would it make you feel better if I said, “No one outside of KBLB’s Zone of Nondisclosures knows where the silk is. That includes you, me, and everyone else on this message board.”
For someone on this board to express such knowledge is absurd, but also fundamentally misleading. It creates an expectation of an outcome of Kraig Biocraft that (statistically speaking) is vanishingly unlikely. Then people buy up shares, dump them at a loss, and the share price goes down.
When it comes to investing, Truth is better than fantasy.
Arachnodude, although you purport longtime investor, I am surprised to see such an uninformed post made in the absence of factual evidence.
You are continually describing KBLB as having made more progress than they have and continually making excuses about why their failures and setbacks were actually progress in disguise.
When people develop unrealistic expectations from reading fanciful posts about KBLB’s imaginary progress, they can later get discouraged when their expectations fail to prove out. That leads to dumping that drives down the share price.
You want to know why I am so careful to determine what KBLB said and correct posts that claim progress beyond what KBLB has told us?
This is why.
Without a doubt no one knows where the fibers are going, or even if they are going anywhere.
To pretend otherwise is unwise.
This upcoming cycle seems to favor building up the breeding pool of the parent lines, as noted in the PR. It takes 40 to 45 days for the cocoons to hatch and the silkworms to mate and breed.
Assuming they choose to focus their resources on the parental lines during this next crop, KBLB will start breeding the hybrids late October or early November, with cocooning around early December.
I believe that is the timeline mentioned by WebSlinger. I have to agree with him once again.
A careful read of this PR suggests their near-term strategy for silk production. Note the following language:
"With dedicated production spaces for each BAM-1 parental line and a dedicated space for its BAM-1 hybrid hatchery,"
This has space for producing the parental strains, but the other space for hybrids is described as a 'hatchery.' This suggests they are transitioning to a model where KBLB will provide silkworm farms with hatched silkworm larvae, who then return the cocoons. This is similar to a production video that was posted within the last few months where a silkworm farm brought in buckets of small silkworms and reared them to the cocoon stage.
I wish I knew where this was located. Quang Nam or Lam Dong? It probably doesn't matter, but silkworm farms seem to be more abundant in Lam Dong.
Otherwise, we heard nothing about how much silk was reeled from the latest crop. They could still be in the final stages of reeling and aggregating the silk into hanks. Maybe next week...
The KBLB way!
Yes, that is the present of which many care not to see.
Nice summary!
Want2retire: “There must be a term for that…”
Oh, I know. I KNOW!
“Harsh reality.”
What did I win?
Let’s start with the photo caption:
Dr.-Nirmal-Kumar-Assessing-Automatic-Silk-Reeling-Facilities
According to this caption, he is not monitoring and adapting protocols for reeling silk, he is ‘assessing the facilities.’
That’s what you do when you want to know if some place has the right equipment for the job you want them to do. But you don’t assess the facilities when they are reeling your silk.
This doesn’t mean the photo was taken at a random location. It may have been taken on the initial visit, but the silk is being reeled at this facility. From the evidence we have, we simply can’t determine the truth.
Concerning the report that Ben made: I would appreciate your posting your question to him and his response, redacted to ensure your anonymity. Ben may have said something like “The facility is reeling 100% BAM-1 silk.” That is a very different claim than “100% of the facility’s machinery is reeling BAM-1 silk.” I don’t know what language Ben used, but I hope you can understand the difference. The next question is: Did Ben tie the photograph to the facility where the silk is being reeled? “The photograph was taken of the facility where the silk was being reeled.” Note this is different from “The photograph of the facility was taken while the silk was being reeled.” The latter sentence could mean that Dr. Kumar left the facility where Bam-1 was being reeled to visit a different facility to assess their facilities. Both took place at the same time.
You may think I’m splitting hairs here, but there are numerous cases in the past where Thompson used language in a deceptive way. Hence my skepticism.
Mostly what I’m advocating for is a ‘Wait and see’ approach. The news seems good but not definitive. People want to celebrate. I get that. If KBLB reaches a dollar a share, I’ll earn a lot of money. I want that to happen. But for now, the champagne remains in the fridge and the party hats and streamers are tucked away in a closet.
We may learn the quantity of reeled silk as early as Monday of next week. KBLB may breach the 100 kilo threshold: good news for us all. But the real test of time is whether investors at large are sufficiently impressed to bid the share price up.
Hopes and dreams, sure! But I still have to wait and see.
So he went to a factory to look at their setup and they took advantage of a photo-op. That does NOT say he is monitoring the reeling of BAM-1 DS in this automated factory.
Thanks for reinforcing my point. Nice job!
It would take very little effort for KBLB to address many points I have made. The photo could have been accompanied by a caption that stated Dr. Kumar was observing the reeling of our silks. Many other ways to achieve the same goals at little or no cost or effort to KBLB.
In the past, vague and suggestive language has been used repeatedly by the company. Many here on this board have misinterpreted these PRs and have claimed KBLB was far ahead of where they actually are.
After having been burned not once or twice, but perhaps 5 or 6 times, my cautious approach has been effective. You may remember the derision I received early this year for suggesting that KBLB had shut down production of their 2023 hybrid silkworms and that we might have to wait until mid June or late July for the first batches of silk to arrive.
While others continued to insist KBLB was continuing silk production in the January thru April timeline, my predictions turned out to be spot on.
But now you want me to abandon my cautionary approach over an uncaptioned photo? Sorry, not happening.
The news from KBLB keeps arriving on a nearly weekly basis. I believe this is a PR campaign to amplify the effect of strong news once it arrives. We might be headed for a happy ending. I recommend that people holding shares consider continuing to do so, as long as it remains convenient.
People who portray KBLB as being more successful than it really is run the risk of disappointing investors who sell off their shares and undermine the stock’s momentum. If you think there is no downside to asserting the company is further along than they really are, we will simply have to disagree.
After waiting for so many years, can you not accept the pace may be more measured than we would all like? The next three months could well see KBLB break the metric ton production barrier.
That is only one step towards the goal of production, sales, and revenue. It may be six months before we understand KBLB’s market position. I’m not sure when I first purchased shares of KBKB, but I’m guessing it was around 2016 or 2017. After all that time, waiting for another 6 months with some tantalizing news from HQ doesn’t seem such a big cross to bear.
Information posted from an anonymous source that does not provide the precise question asked or the precise answer is simply an unsubstantiated rumor.
I am relying on the information provided by KBLB, the official source, as others have suggested time and again.
Arachnodude: “…the FACT Dr. Kumar is assessing, addressing, and continuing to guide finished silk yield, benefits KBLB in a dramatically positive way.”
On this point, we agree.
As I indicated in my post, KBLB will not be selling spider silk. They will be selling silkworm silk (with a fibroin core) that is tougher than mundane silk. It may have other properties that distinguish it from mundane silk but, at its core, DS is still a fibroin-based silk. KBLB has never stated the silkworms are producing spidroin-based fiber.
Spiber has already produced and sold several luxury streetwear articles of clothing in various sizes. They have already achieved limited market acceptance for their brewed proteins, a feat KBLB has not even begun to match with their spun protein. Spiber also has a diverse set of brewed protein fibers targeted to different applications. KBLB is, for the moment, a one-trick pony.
I am NOT claiming KBLB has been knocked out of the game. I am claiming that KBLB has competition and Spiber is ahead of KBLB at this moment.
You have overlooked the numerous posts Truism has thoughtfully provided with links for products by sale that include Spiber’s brewed proteins. I read his posts carefully because they contain useful information about KBLB and their competitors.
Bolt sold a limited edition tie and a beanie with their silks. Recently I’ve not seen much on the market from them.
All of this compares favorably to KBLB, which has yet to release their first limited edition product.
KBLB: no sale.
Bolt and Spiber remain competitors in certain markets. Spider is specifically targeting luxury streetwear among their ventures. I mention that because it was the market identified by Kings for Spydasilk.
KBLB has not proven market acceptance for any markets whatsoever. In that sense, Spiber is far ahead of KBLB.
Spiber makes many different kinds of 'brewed proteins.' So far, KBLB has only achieved limited success in producing a single 'spun protein.' Despite what has been repeated many times on this board, neither DS nor MS are anywhere close to spider silk. They differ not only on the primary structure level but also on the secondary and tertiary structural levels as well. Spiders produce spdroins, silkworms produce fibroins. KBLB is producing fibroins with extra toughness, when compared to mundane silk.
KBLB may have an idea about market interest in their spun proteins, but market interest is a function of the properties of the material being offered, the price, availability, and so on. Investors like you and me have very little understanding of the market interest in KBLB's spun proteins. We all hope the market interest will be huge, but that is just the Hopium that fueled investor interest so far.
I would certainly welcome a cosmetics manufacturer offering to buy hundreds of metric tons of DS for cosmetics manufacturing at a price acceptable to KBLB. Would you turn down that market? If not, why make fun of Spiber's ventures into that area? If another company offered a similar advantageous price for DS to manufacture lightweight, strong, and resilient skateboards, should Thompson turn them away?
Markets for a product are a good thing, not a bad thing. We are still waiting to see what markets develop (if any) for KBLB's spun proteins.
Unfortunately, you don't know what the picture represents. We're both in the same boat.
An inference is not the same as a fact. You are mistaken in your belief in "knowing" the photograph is a picture of KBLB's silk being reeled. It could be a picture of mundane silk being reeled, as I said. It is uncertain, as hard as that may be to accept.
You forgot to include the list of reported non-silk proteins that have been announced by KBLB that were fabricated under the auspices of their abandoned patent. Here it is:
1)
Short … but promising??
The KBLB way!
Thanks! Quite clear.
Unfortunately accurate. KBLB has struck out every time they have filed a patent application. Not a good track record to run on.
But maybe next time…
Absolutely correct.
Their only claims were made relative to their own previous efforts, not to the state of the art in silk production.
Nice try at deflection. Your statements were quite clear that the only thing left between KBLB and sales, revenues, and profits was the lack of a contract to produce.
If I were in your shoes, I’d be pretty embarrassed, too. You just have a different way of expressing it than I do.
You confuse ambiguity with “worst possible.”
I’m saying “We don’t know…” Wouldn’t it be worse to say, “KBLB is NOT using this machinery to reel their silk!”
From what you are saying, I guess the two are equivalent in your mind. Hopefully others will be capable of drawing a more nuanced understanding of my posts.
I can assure you that the machine in question was in use to reel silk. Sorry if you got confused and thought it was a snow-cone maker, but I’m not sure how you reached that conclusion from what I wrote.
We don’t know how KBLB is reeling their silk. They may be doing it in-house with far more primitive equipment than was shown. You are far more trusting of Thompson than I.
I’m curious about how they managed to improve the yield of silk. Were the fibers so delicate that they were breaking when reeled using equipment calibrated for mundane silk? Were they unable to reel some cocoons because they couldn’t find the right place to start?
Yes it is good news they have improved yields from reeling. Unspooling silk from a cocoon is not rocket science, so it’s hard not to wonder what the problem was in the first place.
KBLB, always leaving more unanswered questions on the table as information dribbles out…
Their ‘working relationship’ does not alter the terms of the 4-year contract to purchase silk. That contract will expire soon and KBLB won’t be able to meet the delivery schedule.
The important thing about Kings and KBLB was the $40 million contract. You may remember a frequent poster on this board, with a moniker similar to ‘spider guy,’ kept claiming that all KBLB needed to start cranking out the silk was a contract to produce.
Well, they got their contract and 4 years later the latest PR indicated no recent additions to their inventory and no sales or products.
It’s hard to be more wrong than that. Pretty sure someone didn’t know what they were talking about.
SilkRoad: “KBLB just needs to mass produce their spiderish silk. There are plenty of buyers.”
I agree KBLB needs to mass produce their ‘spiderish silk.’
If there are plenty of buyers, why haven’t they awarded KBLB contracts? You want something, offer to pay for it. Negotiate a sales contract. Gear up the PR engine to generate excitement for new products.
Why hasn’t this happened already (beyond the Kings contract that disappeared recently from KBLB’s quarterly report)? 1) Buyers may be waiting until they know for certain that KBLB can deliver the goods; 2) Thompson may be insisting on a price or terms and conditions that buyers are unwilling to meet; 3) Buyers are waiting for samples to determine their level of interest.
I’m sure I could think of several more reasons. All we know for certain is that the contract with Kings is in doubt and KBLB has not reported another sales contract.
People remember ‘If you build it, they will come.’ History is littered with people who built stuff and no one showed up. No guarantees here, folks.
Just hopes and dreams. For now.
Unfortunately, we don’t know if this machine is reeling mundane silk or Bam-1. This photo could have been taken during a visit to this reeler as negotiations were underway for possible future cooperation.
To be clear: I don’t know if they are reeling Bam-1 silk or not. Thompson could have added a caption to the photo that made it clear. Instead we are left in more ‘fog of uncertainty.’ Given KBLB’s past history, I’m unwilling to give Thompson the benefit of the doubt. Thus, I’m left with doubt.
I don’t think I’m the only one.
What are you talking about?
KBLB said in 2014 that they were ready for ‘Scale and Sale.’ Not in 2024. In 2014. They tried to scale and failed.
Since then, they developed many new strains of RSSP’s. Big Red, DS 1.0, and DS 2.0 are some post 2014-milestones.
We don’t know precisely how close Bam-1 adheres to the DS of old, because Thompson won’t reveal trade secrets that he has already revealed.
But you cannot state that the fiber in 2014 was ever scaled up for sale. It’s dead. Even if MS is developed for sale, it won’t be the same MS we had in 2014.
Thompson was wrong. I believe he was naive about sericulture and the challenges of producing commercial scale quantities, especially in non-laboratory conditions and especially overseas where silkworm diseases are literally ‘in the air.’
We hope Thompson is right that he is now able to do what he promised back in 2014. So far, the signs continue to look good, but we always keep getting not quite the information we are looking for. Today’s PR was another case in point. Good news that KBLB is able to reel more silk from their cocoons. We still don’t know what proportion of the silkworms were raised and successfully cocooned. The absence of disease does not mean ‘all of them.’ It might mean that ‘others died for non-disease related conditions.’ Or ‘they reached the state where we expected them to cocoon, but for some reason, they didn’t.’
The past couple of PRs seem like Thompson is stringing investors along. It may be that he is simply really close to smashing success and he wants to keep people interested. Or not.
Today’s drop in share price suggests that investors may be a little more unhappy about the vague and slow news. There is a price for telling everyone that the share price will hit $1 by the end of June: Some people believe you. (I know it wasn’t you who made that prediction.)
The DoD’s need is so urgent that … they can’t even award KBLB a contract or grant to move forward.
The Air Force money is a SLAM DUD!
Sorry.
Unfortunately, there is no evidence to support your claim that KBLB has multiple production facilities operating.
Right now, KBLB has one production facility in operation. It appears that they are using the Prodigy facility in Quang Nam, because they are getting rid of their Lam Dong space. Nothing wrong with that.
In order to escalate to sustained production of metric ton quantities, KBLB will need an arrangement with a third party silkworm farm, such as the one we had with GSS. Until then, KBLB will be raising hybrid silkworms in a facility designed to produce eggs for a silkworm farm. We should not expect large quantities (near metric ton) until KBLB announces a third party silkworm farm.
The 54 day estimate you are using is from hatch to hatch. That affects the growth of the breeding population, but once the parental lines have been cross-bred, it should take around 35 to 40 days until cocoons are ready to harvest. In an ideal world, KBLB will be able to produce more eggs in one generation than can be used right away to produce silk. The remainder are put in holding in a fridge and hauled out a month later to start the next production cycle.
In that way, you could cross-breed the parental lines 6 times a year but raise 12 crops of Bam-1 silkworms for silk. (Both numbers might be smaller because of weather considerations, of course.)
Regardless of these specifics, KBLB won’t need another production facility until they are sustaining metric ton levels of production at an existing facility. Then their best plan for expansion is not to move into another country to produce silk, but to contract with more silkworm farms in Vietnam. That reduces their overhead, staffing and training requirements, and so on.
Finally, there is no indication that KBLB has a contract with the DoD. They have no reason to construct a facility in the US. It’s simply cheaper to make silk overseas.
There you go again, providing factual evidence. Those among us who prefer our fact-free interpretations simply say “la la la I can’t hear you…”
EOT: “Kblb is on the verge of product Sales!!”
Coming soon! Tick tock. Any day now! Really, seriously, like ‘coming soon.’
Unfortunately, in order to sell products, you need raw materials, in KBLB’s case that would be silk. Their largest batch was about 32 kilos of silk.
Coming soon: Novelty DS Bow Ties. Quantities are limited. Buy now!!!
Ever hear of the ‘Freedom of Information Act?’
The government does not deal in NDA’s. If a non-disclosure agreement was signed between the government and a company, third parties could demand a copy of that agreement and the government would be forced to comply.
Governmental grants and contracts are public. Precisely what the contract is buying, or how much is being paid, are not necessarily public, but the grant or contract certainly is.
No sale.
Well put, especially your closing statement.
Want2retire: “Removal of old language in a section of the quarterly normally reserved for more current updates does not mean what was there before has now been terminated, ended, etc. it also cannot possibly tell us, if it has ended, who made the decision to do so.”
Your explanation consists of two parts:
1) The language was removed because it was ‘old news’ and this is a section reserved for ‘current events.’
2) If the arrangement was ended, we don’t know who made the decision to end it.
With respect to the ‘currency’ issue, obviously KBLB still wants to market and sell silk. They included a statement to that effect in the very section in question. If they felt the details of the arrangement with Kings were ‘old’ and didn’t bear repeating, they could have expressed their intention of working with Kings in just a word or two. I provided language to that effect in an earlier post — one you criticized.
But Kings is gone. Wiped out. Erased. An Unmentionable. Why? Certainly not because they wanted to express their strong and ongoing relationship with Kings that was at the cusp of bearing fruit.
Nope. It’s gone because the relationship is gone. No other reason for it to completely disappear.
Who made the decision to end this relationship? A company with no other partnerships, contracts, or joint ventures? If it was KBLB, kicking your only customer to the curb is an idiotic move. A ‘Top 10’ on anyone’s list of ‘Worst business decisions of all times’ move.
We know the relationship with Kings is gone: Thompson erased it. We know who ended the relationship: Kings.
Why not get confirmation from Ben?
1) Ben’s job is not to disclose details about company operations that the CEO has decided not to release. In doing so, he could create a situation where insider trading could occur. I’m not sure if that is illegal, but if Thompson found out that Ben was releasing details that Thompson didn’t want customers to know, Ben would be out of a job, for certain.
Why hasn’t Thompson explicitly announced the end of this relationship? Possibilities: 1) Because he doesn’t want to create a panic among investors. 2) Because the relationship is being renegotiated, given the failures to deliver silk according to the contractual schedule, and he doesn’t know if they will be successful.
Thompson’s MO: Hide the bad news at all costs. Anyone who wants to challenge him of misleading investors, Thompson can point to the 10-Q and say, “See, we told you that our relationship with Kings had ended.”
Sorry, no sale.
We know that mentions of the contract with Kings have been removed from the 10-Q.
What if your explanation of that fact? If you already provided it, pardon me for asking again. I must have overlooked it.
I very much appreciate your digging through the quarterly reports and sharing the information you have found. It saves me a lot of work going through the documents and you report on issues that investors should be concerned about.
The lack of any increase in inventory of silk is in apparent contradiction to the mid-June PR in which KBLB reported harvesting 325+ pounds of hybrid silk cocoons.
That same PR included the statement “This rearing of the BAM-1 hybrids represents a 10X increase in production volume when compared to the spring trials.” This was one of those puzzling statements that can be understood in several different ways. Production is not usually measured in ‘volume’ terms: KBLB reported the weight of the cocoons, not how many bags of silk were filled. Still, I took it to mean that the spring trials produced about 1/10th of the 325+ pounds of cocoons, or around 32 pounds.
How can we reconcile the static inventory with the report of silk cocoons harvested?
1) KBLB simply forgot to update their inventory on the latest 10-Q.
2) KBLB did not identify this silk as being ‘in inventory’ because it had not been reeled yet. They are only reporting reeled silk as inventory. It seems likely that KBLB did not bother with a separate reeling process for the smaller spring production trials. Perhaps both were sent out for reeling and have not yet arrived back at KBLB’s production facility.
3) KBLB lied about producing silk on their June 17 PR.
To me, the 3rd explanation is implausible. Releasing a PR with specific false information opens Thompson up to lawsuits on the part of investors once they discover the lie.
My suspicion is that #2 is the correct explanation, but I can’t dismiss #1.
Once again, facts dribble out at Thompson’s languid pace.