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At this point a poor Q2 is priced in. However, a terrible Q2 is not. What’s poor? What’s terrible? 7.x million revenue is poor, 6.x million or less is terrible. But but but, Q2 will not matter at all IF order intake during Q2 was great and/or IF they guide Q3 and Q4 to record levels.
Anyone who says they trade perfect is a liar. I sold too early in the recent rise as well, likely at a lower avg price than you. I was completely out of the stock going into earnings but then bought a few at $17 on day of earnings cuz I wanted to play along just in case it skyrocketed. I do continue buying on the way down, today in the $7.60s but my current avg price is much higher. Current position is still small but I hope to be in pretty big by early August.
The nice thing is that with Givens at the helm it will work out well over next couple years.
It’s both exciting and depressing to be buying VTSI shares today a full $10 below the 52week high…..but it is par for this course. If it pops late next week I will sell and buy back when the Russell rah rah wears off in July.
Cool! Who sold me shares yesterday?
What leads to sales you ask? The best salesmen. Period. It has little to do with technology or best of breed product. Those things help but a great salesman can sell ice to Eskimos.
The Russell an achievement? No it’s not. The inclusion is based on one thing and only one thing, the market cap of the company. Had Q1 been announced a few weeks earlier they would not have made it.
All that said, VTSI stock has held up well of late, perhaps the bottom is in.
Another fluff pr, similar to the Russell pr. Where is some concrete news about Sales?
Chart is ugly.
Valuation is ok.
I bought some in the 10s, 9s, 8s, and next week likely 7s. The lower it goes, the more I buy.
Really ugly market for all small company stocks right now so VTSI has lots of company in the ugly chart dept.
I am surprised Givens and a director or two haven’t stepped up and made some open market buys. Q2 might be really fugly.
Ok, I’ll bite….why?
Agree with all you said. Good advice. In some ways it’s an easy stock to analyze…2 years from now it will be higher and 5 years from now much much higher or perhaps swallowed by a bigger company.
But over the next few months it is a bit of a crap shoot and the Russell inclusion adds to the volatility.
I cannot believe they issued the PR this morning. That was stupid, reeks of desperation “look at me”. I took advantage and doubled my still small position today.
Opinions?….If VirTra were to announce a $5.x mil revenue Q2 in mid August, where would the stock trade? Maybe that is the wrong question….Where will it trade over next 3 weeks? Will Q3 revenue be $12mil?
I want to scale back in but still think it goes well below $7.
9s and no one cares. One would hope several directors started buying today. If not, gonna get uglier for the share price.
You are correct, number was stated as $2.9 million. The CFO said it in her prepared remarks. Ugly ugly ugly number. What was the sales dept doing in 2023? The most important part of any company is the sales force…..yet Givens waited until now to fix it? Is it even fixed now?
$3.1mil in new sales in Q1….Just think about that number. Makes Ferris look like a great salesman.
You said sales are being pushed out to second half of the year. If that were true in a substantial way wouldn’t it be reflected in the backlog?
My guess is this goes into the low $7s, just below where Ferris was last selling. That said, I’m not certain so will hedge and buy some in the 11s, 10s, 9s, etc. And if the Russell scratches them from the Add list, yikes.
Yes, I know. That is why I offered my help with the math. Lemme know.
Q1 fed gov revenue was $6.7million. It’s in the middle of Givens prepared remarks at start of conf call. Total Q1 revenue was $8.1mil. I can help you with the math if need be. Let me know.
Look at this based on what full year 2024 numbers will be. At best, maybe up slightly from 2023.
At $11, their market cap is over 3x revenue.
At $11, it trades at 11x or 12x their adj ebitda.
Sure, value it at Axon multiples and it should be a $30 stock. Problem is, VirTra doesn’t perform like Axon.
Value it like other similar microcaps and it should be a $5 stock. And VirTra still does perform in a lumpy erratic way.
In my view, this remains THE biggest problem with VirTra: They do not care about or even try to sell systems and content to police departments. How much of Q1 revenue came from police depts? About $1mil. What are their in the field sales people doing? Givens seems to only care about Military, that’s all he talks about. Way easier to have steadily growing and reliable sales if focused on 14,000 customers rather than 1.
Last years cutoff was $159mil. How is that any different than $300mil?
If I am wrong, it’s not the first time. With the Russell 2000 we will not know with any degree of certainty until the market closes on April 30th since that is the market cap that will be used for consideration. Then we will not know with 100% certainty until June 10th when the additions and subtractions are considered locked.
If VTSI closes at over $27 on Tuesday April 30th they might make it. My guess is it will take a $327mil market cap to make it this year, so about a $30 stock price.
It will take a market cap near $300mil to make Russell 2000. Last years cutoff was about $296mil.
Last years Q1 was $10mil with $2.9mil of net income.
They might come close this Q1 on revenue but no way they touch that sort of net income. Analyst estimates are at $9mil revenue and $1.35mil net income.
If Q1 is light the stock will be in big short term trouble. But if it closes the gap and turns up and Q1 is ok then it goes up strong.
…..so, what sort of Q1 numbers would be “light” or “strong”?
The chart is another reason to sell if one is nimble enough to sell now and buy back a buck or so lower. It appears destined to make a gap filling attempt.
Congrats on being awash in cash. It is still an awesome time for buying many small company stocks.
That said, it is still a reasonably good time to buy VTSI. Is it going to be $13 one year from now?….or $6…..or $25. If I had to bet I’d go with $25+.
If it gets anywhere near $11, buy with both fists. The gap is between 10.7 and 11.1.
I started buying back in 2009, the lowest I ever bought was a year or three after that at 3.1cents which was the same as 62cents today. I think my first ever buy was about 10cents or same as $2 today. I remember buying many in the 7 to 8 cent range or $1.40 to $1.60. In hindsight I wish I had kept more until yesterday am…hindsight is 20/20.
OT…Bought more GKPRF yesterday, started buying it at 38cents, it reminds me of VirTra (the good parts) in many ways. Most of my money is now in SUP, HRTG, JOB, GFGSF, BDN, and UIS. SUP has potential to go up 5x to 8x. GFGSF is likely to go up 10x to 20x but it’s mostly gonna come all at once in a few years when they sell. JOB is trading at tangible book value with an enterprise value of $20mil yet has $140mil in revenue and is cash flow positive. UIS also has 5x potential but trades flaky with no rhyme or reason.
Bought another 54,000 shares today. Investor conf Monday/ Tues and Q2 numbers later in April.
Good post, all true. I shouldn’t have used the word “frittered”. My point is that even though they have positive net cash and a clean balance sheet and clean capital structure they are not swimming in money.
To be fair, some of that is due to the growth of their rental business which is a good thing…maybe.
I also think they are now of a sufficient size and have enough credibility to walk into most any bank and borrow $20mil with reasonably favorable terms. I hope that is Givens slant as compared to dilution. He is smart so seems likely.
Compare net cash now verses net cash then….back then they had no debt, today they have about $10mil in debt….praise the heavens for the $3mil milestone gift otherwise it would look worse….also, subtract $3mil from Q4 net income and what do you get?
I think they might dilute (raise money) again even with the strong balance sheet. If they did it now, it would be at about 12ish. Their net cash position remains small as most of the last cap raise has been frittered away.
However, to their credit they negotiated the $3mil milestone payment so maybe they are trying to avoid further dilution.
I will buy back in if it takes a healthy dip. Will it fill the gap in the chart? There for sure will be an attempt. That said, it is looking strong so who knows.
Congrats All longs! Really good report. Stock should move up. I’m mostly out for now but will get back in deeper even if I have to pay up.
They have 90days from end of fiscal year.
45days from end of q1/2/3.
I hope it was a great Q4. I’ve just been burned so much lately (UIS this week) that I have come to expect the worst.
Yep, the run is done. Start buying again this Summer a couple bucks below Ferris recent sells. If Q4 was lumpy-bad…..4s or worse.
It will also probably do well but for whatever reason I don’t like it.
The Gatekeeper CEO has a new interview out in youtube. Invest_2020 posted a link to it beneath GKPRF on Seeking Alpha.
Really really good. I’m buying more.
“PTSD from Ferris”….That was a great line! Still laughing….cuz it’s sorta true.
Empty boxes? Staged at a weird angle? Just kidding….sorta.
They should put up a live webcam with that view! Think of all the sleuthing and speculating we could do.
It was a great report. I suspect it will keep moving up. Thanks again for recommending it.
Quiet board