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Another spectacular earnings report! AND THEY PROVIDED forward guidance, first time ever! I will keep adding shares. NAII and VTSI - the two greatest stock buys in the market today.
That was interesting Teeroy. Thanks for posting. I had sort of wondered what the back-end (just before shipping) of the operation looked like.
Only 5 more trading days until Q3 earnings are released!
Only 9 more trading days until the "D" goes away from the ticker!
Only 37 more trading days until FY2017 starts!
Bill, I do plead guilty to sounding like a broken record and beating the horse.
Not that it matters, but I also agree with your description of the average investor. I am not an average investor. The only way to evaluate any company and any stock is by the numbers. That is why I first bought VTSI and why I continue to add shares. The stock is a better buy (more undervalued) today than at ANY TIME in its history. That is what the numbers tell me.
A house in the Keys? I could buy one tomorrow if I wanted to, but I don't (want to). The only reason I can afford anything is because of the stock market, but who cares.
More importantly, there is no better tasting fish than freshwater walleyes and bluegills. I have eaten about every kind of ocean fish and ocean shellfish imaginable in some of the best restaurants in FL and worldwide and I have to eat anything that is as good as walleye and bluegills. That said, catching tarpon is a cool rush, sort of like musky fishing.
I will back off on my posting. The only reason I do post this much on VTSI is that I hope it keeps someone from making the biggest mistake of their life by selling VTSI shares they currently own. I made this same sort of mistake twice in my investing career and took a double and missed out on two different 100 baggers (CNQR and SSYS).
The simple way I look at this RS:
Would I rather buy a $3 stock or a 30cent stock?
As a customer would I rather do business with one with a $3 stock price or a 30cent stock price?
As an investor, do I take more seriously EPS of 2.4cents or 24cents?
Is EPS growth from 2.4cents to 3.5cents simply noise?
EPS growth from 24 cents to 35cents is legit and real.
My stock screener will not even dig into sub-$1 stocks.
I know most everyone here understands this sort of stuff. I just love looking at numbers like EPS of 30cents and the YOY growth numbers.
I am surprised that since the RS, no one has stepped forward to buy large numbers of shares. I thought there would have been 2 or 3 big bidders looking to buy 2 or 3% of the company each. Now is the time to do it.
Maybe there are some who cannot buy due to the D on the ticker?
Maybe some need to wait X number of days post-split?
Of course the overall market and especially microcaps is so sick right now. Sort of sad to see.
I think when investors begin to notice the earnings power and record of growth with VirTra the stock will react powerfully and favorably.
Think about it, the current stock price of $2.70 is MORE THAN FULLY SUPPORTED by this year's Q1 earnings alone! EPS for Q1 was 15cents. A generic market PE of 19 gets you a $2.85 stock price.
And VTSI deserves a higher PE due to their record of growth, size of the company, and forward prospects.
Like I've said before, easy to ignore EPS 1.5cents or consider it "noise", impossible to ignore this year's EPS that will likely top 30cents.
And then consider that in 2017, the CEO will begin hosting conf calls, will do several investor presentations, will uplist the stock, etc. Yes, we need patience but I doubt more than a year's worth before the rocket takes off.
Hey there NB. Down? Not sure what you are looking at? But anyway, do you really believe 2.69 is any different than 3.30 or 2.30 or 1.80 or 3.60? It is not.
Those that continue to build positions in this stock are not doing so in order to sell at $4 or $5 or $6 or $10. Think about it, at $10/share the market cap is $158million. At VirTra's growth rate it will not take very long to justify that price. Really the sky is the limit.
There is pretty much carnage everywhere in microcap land the last couple weeks.
My guess with CNAT is simply those who had been flippin between 1.95 and 2.20 just got caught on the wrong side and are now having to bail. I suspect quite a few margin calls happening these days.
I added a bunch today sub-1.60 and it feels like Christmas to me!
Happy investing.
Good post Gregg. Not sure what you meant by "notification" though. All my shares are in Fidelity brokerage accounts and everything just happened automatically same day. I suppose I might have gotten an email or something but I never read those.
Sure is tempting to go grab the 7500 shares sitting at 2.80. I think I'll eat some lunch and if they are still there in an hour I'll buy'em. So much easier to accumulate a big position with only 15.8mil shares and much cheaper too since commissions now far lower. An added bonus!
Carnage everywhere in the market today with the micro-caps. 176 of the 208 I follow are red. Some very.
This stock will make millionaires of many shareholders. I continue to buy shares and add them to my holdings. CNAT has very little potential competition and every bit of data looks very good. This either goes up 10 fold in late 2017 or gets bought out at 10X - 40X current price in 2018.
Nice it is at 1.80, time to accumulate big time.
Exactly right avocado.
Another thing I'm really liking about VirTra right now is the pace at which they are attacking the whole uplisting effort. It seems to me they are trying to get lots of this stuff out of the way before the Nov 15th Q3 earnings announcement. There does not appear to be any effort to hold news or keep things under wraps to unveil later. That bodes well I believe.
Think about all the structural changes that have taken place in the last month or so.....now a Nevada law company, reverse stock split done, BOD now has independent members, share buyback plan in place.
Some companies announce plans and never follow through. Nice to see VirTra continue down the aggressive path.
It's many years away if ever.
...and sort of nice Ferris again stated OTCQX at the end of the PR along with the note they BOD now meets the requirement.
...though I have to say that while this guy is probably a great choice for BOD, sort of doubt he is the most independent of choices....sure looks to me like at some point wwwaaayyyy down the road (5+ years) VirTra and Mod Round will be under the same umbrella.
The country you grew up in was an "Eat-and-Shoot" country. That is why we need to Make America Great Again!
Sorry Bill, I couldn't resist. VirTra is in all the right places at all the right times and continues to hit on all cylinders. Modern Round will never 500 US locations, however, pretty easy to look at a map and pick out about 20 or 30 that would work. Then internationally, pretty easy to find another 20 or 30 that would work. But again, MR is just a bit o frosting on the cake.
Can't wait for Nov 15th and full year 2016 report in March and uplist in April-ish and the $10 stock price in a year or so.
Hi Bill, Sorry about that, I probably read through all those messages too quickly.
Modern Round - The question you asked was answered very directly during the shareholder meeting and if you listen to the Q&A portion of the audio you will hear Ferris' answer. My recollection of what he said is that VirTra supplies the systems to Modern Round at some price that is a little above "cost" (so a small profit) but at a lower margin than to other typical customers.
I am far more confident about Modern Round now that they reported almost $150k in revenue for June. My guess is Jul/Aug/Sep will be over $600k and once everything is fine tuned and optimized a location like Peoria will have annual revenue of about $3million. A locale like Vegas or Dallas would likely be in the $5 or $6mil per year range.
One way or the other, we will have our Mod Rnd "answer" in about 1 year.
A further note on my point #6: (I think it was Bill who said the stock will never get to $5 for a few years. Me thinks it gets there before the end of November, 2016. Why? Because the company is already worth more than $80million. Why? Because of the continued growth and the fact they will likely generate net income of $4.5 to $5.5mil this FY2016.)
I didn't haphazardly throw out the $80mil number. Think about it in these terms, If you could buy the entire company for $80million would it make sense to do so? Not too many places where an $80mil investment returns a real $6 or $7mil the first year, $9mil the 2nd year, 11mil the 3rd year, etc. Look at the net present value of that sort of income stream and you have your answer on what the company is worth today.
An unrelated point on some earlier Mod Round comments. Someone poo poo'd $2mil in MR royalties. That $2mil is pure profit and equates to EPS of 13cents for VTSI! If that royalty stream existed today, it would fully (and all by itself) support the current $3 share price.
I just read through 2 days of posts after being off-grid a couple days. A few musings:
1. Avocado and Schneidku have some great posts and the correct views.
2. The buyback announcement is a good move. Even though it is only $1mil it may/will decrease the number of shares by anywhere from 1 - 3%. This is significant.
3. Obviously, the fact the company might buy back/retire some shares tells me business continues strong and company generating plenty of excess cash.
4. Since I believe the stock should be trading at $6 - $7 TODAY, I believe the buyback is a smart move. I have recommended it repeatedly over the last several years.
5. Someone earlier said they should have done this when the stock was a penny. In theory they are correct, in practice it couldn't have been done at that time due to share price and volume.
6. I think it was Bill who said the stock will never get to $5 for a few years. Me thinks it gets there before the end of November, 2016. Why? Because the company is already worth more than $80million. Why? Because of the continued growth and the fact they will likely generate net income of $4.5 to $5.5mil this FY2016.
7. Gonna be quite a ride over the next couple years and yesterday's announcement just removed some of the likely dips and eased my worries immensely.
Cheers All.
I always wonder what sort of brainiac wakes up today, scratches his head, and decides....hhhmmmm, a good day to sell my VTSI shares...and then proceeds to dribble them out there.
I'm happy there are those with that sort of wisdom out there since it allows me to keep adding shares, but it also scares me to think there are those that don't think.
VirTra is only about 2 1/2 weeks from reporting Q3 results and 2 months from completing yet another record year and about 6 months from uplisting to national exchange.
Patience = $$$
Started nibbling a bit here today in an account that I manage for dividends.
Very strong trading yesterday and again today relative to the overall market. I expect earnings in about 2 1/2 weeks.
Give it up Twister, you have already lost. You made the same posts at 12cents, 15cents, 18cents, 25cents, 30cents.
There is no uncertainty with VirTra or with VTSI.
We know revenue for this FY will be much higher than last FY.
We know EPS for this FY will be much higher than last FY.
We know the pipeline of orders has never been stronger.
We know the company is debt free and rapidly growing cash.
We know Trailing Twelve Month EPS is 22.5cents.
We know the stock will be uplisted to the OTCQX in about April, 2017.
The only way VTSI shareholders lose is if someone steps in and buys the company at $10/share in the next couple months. That would be a terribly bitter pill to swallow.
From $3, VTSI should be an easy 10 bagger over the next 3 - 5 years.
I might be too optimistic with the 25 - 35cent EPS range for the first 9 months of this fiscal year.
Probably 22 - 32cents would have been a better guess. Through 6 months they are at about 15.3cents and if you add back in the 400k Q2 charge then they are at about 18cents.
Twelve Month Trailing PE is stupid low for a company growing at 20 - 30% per year.
Funny post....though I am happy it cannot happen. Even today, it wasn't really possible to add any number of shares even at 2.80. About the time I decided to grab the 2500 available at 2.91 someone else bought them and "poof" the ask was back to 2.99.
I sort of wonder if the "d" that is now temporarily at the end of VTSID keeps any fund guys from buying? I wouldn't think so but some may have their own company rules against that sort of thing. I still think this will be well over $5 by this Thanksgiving. It almost has to be since EPS for the 9 months through Q3 will likely be 25 - 35cents.
I really hope that even though the reverse split didn't happen until after the end of Q3 that VirTra reports numbers such as EPS to reflect the split. Would love to see the 9 month EPS number in the headline.
No lag time.
It is just so refreshing to own a company like VirTra with only 15.8million outstanding shares. Suddenly any potential investor capable of understanding ratios like PE and metrics like EPS will be able to take a serious look at the company and stock. They will look at the numbers, scratch their heads, and think...Wow, I better be getting myself some of that before someone notices.
Then when they go into their brokerage account they will not have to get special permission or a blessing or have to make a phone call before buying 1000 or 5000 or 9999 shares.
Fun times.
Snapshot of VTSI on October 12, 2017
Yes, one year into the future.
FY16 ended with 18mil in revenue and EPS of 35cents.
FY17 on pace for 24mil in revenue and EPS of 47cents.
Yet another year of 30%+ growth.
Second and Third Modern Rounds now up and running.
Balance sheet cash has grown to $6million, still no debt.
Total outstanding shares are 15.8million.
VTSI is being traded on the OTC.
Institutional ownership is now at 15%, up from 0% one year earlier.
Good golly, what a beautiful snapshot. Think about where a company with these sorts of stats should be trading. $3? Ha ha. $5 Ha ha. It will have a PE of 20 and could be well over $10.
Goodnight All and pleasant dreams.
Twister, I hope you do know you can again become a VirTra shareholder by simply buying VTSI shares. I also hope you understand that the 15.8million shares outstanding on the day of the split represent 100% total ownership of the company. There are no other preferred shares or classes of shares or capital or anything else. Ownership structure is squeaky clean.
You are the one who always assumes the worst and tries use fear/uncertainty/doubt. To what end I am not sure. You remind me of a poster named meifud on the old yahoo finance boards.
You claim to own some VTSI shares. It makes no sense to me for a shareholder who feels/believes what you say you believe to own shares in such a company. If I ever have any doubts about a company in which I own shares, I simply sell the shares and move on OR I go over 5% ownership and quietly exert pressure by dealing directly with the CEO and/or BOD.
To each his own I guess.
Twister, Go back and listen/read the Sept 16th shareholder meeting call/transcript that was open to the public and broadcast live. Each question you asked in the post to which I am replying was answered in that meeting.
1. Ferris actually did say 1 for 10 in that meeting but he used it as an example rather than say it would be the ratio.
2. Ferris said first step was to become a Nevada corp. This is done.
3. Now the first step in the split process has occurred with the Finra request/notification. Assume approval in a couple weeks and the actual split a week or two after. So maybe about Nov 7th or 14th. This times out nicely with the Q3 report on the 14th or 15th.
4. FY ends on December 31st. Full year financials will be audited by late Feb/early March. This puts the uplist in late March or early April. And Ferris did say OTC in the shareholder meeting.
And what's with the comment you lead off with? Everything is in order but your comment is a good example of why they need to get off the pinks.
LeGoose, It is a travesty that you have 71 "followers." There will never be even 1 day or 1 minute when VirTra shares will not be able to be traded. You are clearly trying a scare tactic and that is beneath anyone here. I have been through at least 6 reverse splits as have several others here.
And your closing statement regarding the CEO also tells us all we need to know about you.
They moved to Nevada like most other adult companies. #1 is Delaware, #2 is Nevada (and rising fast), Texas further down the list.
You were happy for...what.....about an hour?
Bill, I would guess that at least a hand full of $ managers have already been "lined up" and have made gentleman agreements to buy in.
Yes.
As an aside....it was nice that in today's release they specifically said that after the RS there would be a total of 15.8million shares outstanding and that those 15.8mil shares represent 100% ownership of the company.
Super Cool! We finally have numbers that will get someone's attention!
Share price of $3.
Trailing EPS of about 25cents.
It is just so much more credible when EPS goes from 20 cents to 35 cents to 50 cents than from 2 cents to 3.5cents to 5cents.
So if I'm a customer and I see that I am about to do business with a company with a 30cent stock price, I might hesitate. If the share price is $3, much less hesitation.
Just a myriad of reasons why this is so right. This opens the door to at least a small chunk of institutional and mutual fund managers.
If this company had 16million outstanding shares, the stock price would already be over $10. That's all anyone needs to know.
Bill, We all get it that you do not like the CEO. Why not just try to forget about him and simply look at the year over year revenue, net income, and balance sheet progress over the last decade and how it is now obviously accelerating. Sorry to sound like a broken record but just think about it...last year the company went over $10million in sales and next year they will be way way above $20million in sales! A few years ago, EPS was .02 CENTS per share, now is about 3.50 CENTS per share. A couple years ago net cash was zero, now it is $4mil and growing.
Yes, there have been some small mis-steps such as the Gander Mtn relationship, however, it is clear they learned from it and now have something rolling that could become literally huge - Mod Round. The CEO also learned from the earlier reverse split effort as evidenced at how they are approaching the upcoming uplist. My point is the CEO and company are smarter and better positioned today than at any other time in their history. Just 3 years ago, no one could imagine VirTra getting multi-million $ contracts. Now in the span of just 2+ years they have gotten a $6mil, a big chunk of $40mil, a $12mil. Those numbers are greater than what the entire annual revenue was just 4 or 5 years ago.
Ok, I'll shut up. But I am smiling.
Can't happen April 1st....that is a Saturday! Sorry, couldn't resist.
That is awesome! Congrats.
Yes Bill, I think you hit the nail on the head (except for the "no leader' remark....we can agree to disagree on that point).
This does bode well for when interest in the stock increases. Could be a meteoric rise if people hold tight as they should.
I really hope you do post more, that was a helpful detailed post. Wow.
The one question I have is when will the second and third MR locations be opening? I think they are smart to make sure everything is ironed out at site 1 before going crazy rolling it out.
The other question I have for you (and I know it is none of my business) is how "big" is your VTSI position? Are you a 0.5% holder or a 1% or 2% or....?
Truly curious since I have never been able to figure out how so few shares trade each day given the number outstanding.
Thanks.
aahhh! Thanks Bill. Didn't know I had to go through that level of effort. Just kiddin.
A rather juvenile attempt at stock manipulation by someone small today. Rather then enter an Ask price, they kept entering market sells to take out the small stacked Bids. Must be a small guy because he couldn't take out the 44k bid at .27.
And the Ask remains about .295ish. At this point, pretty tough to "scare" holders out of their shares.
Juvenile.
They didn't work for me either.