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they have adjusted message today, but a big part of the pitch in those emails was the planned announcement of adding cannabis extract to their list of essential oils. either way, i made some profit, and we will see how the adjusted message works in the pump.
the problem with the business plan is that it was never adjusted. when gas prices fell, so did any chance of selling in the volume they originally hoped for. when the ATVM loan fell apart, they never adjusted their plan the loan is a non-starter, and other investments are not coming because 200k cars a year is simply not a viable plan when gas prices are down. (even if the thing was electric, you would not sell that many)
glad i took the payout when i did. Sessions may have just prematurely halted this pump. (they were relying heavily on the pot stock jump)
i think they were right not to go electric. the real pull of the elio was getting great millage, without a limited range..... but it sure would have been a better use of resources than redesigning the metro engine to get the extra 3MPG or continuing to dump money on tweaks to the body.
personally, i think the biggest mistake is failure to adjust to the market. gas prices went back down, the ATVM loan has been on perpetual hold for many years.... and they are still living the pipe dream that they will get the loan, and then can sell 250k of these a year, right out the gate. they should have been exploring a smaller scale release.. using the money from the stock offering.
i don't think it is a scam..... but i do think the word "incompetent" might apply. hey doubled down on engineering spending, when the ATVM loan got delayed, they have never taken any realistic action to get going without that loan (in fact they have been spending with the assumption hey will get it for so long, it would take major restructuring just to start production even if/when they do get it). i think they honestly want to make he vehicles, i just think they have let optimism prevent them making some of the critical decisions needed to do so.
i would say that there is definitely a delay. they have not made the 100 fleet vehicles they were supposed to make by the end of last year.... they have not even hired any workers for the factory.... they have not even finished all the E-series vehicles. they are roughly in the same place they were a year ago, except they have spent all the money they got from the stock sale. 2018 still seems VERY optimistic.
from my perspective, here are the two main points we learned about the reg A+ process.
1) if they don't have an established way to ensure stocks will be accepted by brokers, there will be a huge run on on price when they go live. a big part of the run up to 75 was an artificial supply restriction... because many of us could not find a broker to sell them through. when you paid 12 and the offer is 40, most people would sell... it never would have gotten to 75 if people had the stocks ready to sell. the people who made those huge lumps of cash were the ones with dedicated brokers. we will have to see if this one holds true, after the learning from ELIO, but i suspect they won't have an established means to ensure stocks are sell-able unless the regulations get updated. (the easiest way seems to be to not use a transfer company, but an actual brokerage where everyone gets an account when they buy into the offering)
2) the stock offering is done in a crowdfunding method.... this means that the people who buy the majority of the stock are people who believe in the company and it's vision more than traditional investors. they are disproportionately long term investors. since such a large percentage of the stock ends up in the hands of people who are what i would call "true believers" the bulk of them will not sell for a dropping value. this keeps the stock value from dropping, when every analyst and professional investor thinks it should.
i does kinda matter where they are in the process.
yes, starting a new car company is hard... yes, it has not been done for a long time... yes, you want the product to be good, when it does go to market.
the PROBLEM is that, as a company, Elio told people they had that part worked out 3 years ago. and as soon as it became clear they could not make that date... they redesigned the engine. as soon as it became clear they could not meet the next date, they made a new prototype.... as soon as it became clear they could not make the next date, they announced the E-series build. they respond to every delay in production, with further engineering that 1) undermines their original goal of using off the shelf parts (parts as unique as most cars, at this point) 2) costs a lot of money they don't have 3) is designed to show continued momentum, but actually does more to place the competence of the team in question (if they "needed" this extra engineering, then how could they have possibly thought they would be making cars 3yrs ago)
second problem.... even the E-series build is outsourced. Elio has still never made a single vehicle.
hard to say. i think it comes as a big hit that the town where the factory is at is getting irritated around the same time they were supposed to be starting the fleet vehicle build.... and they are not even close to starting that.
it will definitely bottom out somewhere south of $12... probably $10. i don't think it will completely tank though, because there are a lot of long haulers.
i am well aware of what is involved in the vehicle. doing as much as possible with off the shelf parts was one of the big selling points for me. my first doubt was when they abandoned that to redesign the engine. they seem to have exhibited a desire for perfection, that has crippled their ability to actually make money.
crash tests might be important, from a marketing perspective.... but i am pretty sure that the last report i saw said that there was no requirement for auto-cyles. the biggest reason Elio has made this a priority is so they can set those standards if/when they do exist. (you don't want to have a product on the market for 3 years and then have the government make it retroactively unable to meet standards) it really is not an immediate obstruction to production.
the stock price has been oddly stable, i expect there should be a drop whenever they officially announce the next delay... but there are groups of enthusiasts who will see that as a reason to buy (an official announcement with a new/reasonable sounding production date)... so, it probably won't change much. contrary to the numbers, i think the only way this stock drops very far is if they actually admit failure/declare bankruptcy.
for the upside... if the loan ever does get approved... that will cause a huge spike... because that will be the tangible evidence they will probably make it.
so, they just finished the second of 23 E-series vehicles.... they have 21 more to go. plus the testing, results analysis, figuring out the engineering changes that are expected to result, AND implement those changes into the assembly line, that still needs to be set up?!?!?!
and the official statement is still that they think they will start production on the fleet vehicles in a little more than 2 months? (or hope to, pending funding availability)
it seems very unlikely that they will achieve the last "official" projected plan. even if all the e-series were ready today, getting the testing completed in 2 months would be a stretch... let alone implementing any engineering changes identified... or setting up the equipment. most likely, we are looking at at least a year (again/still).
while the product is great, there are serious concerns raised about their ability to plan and execute effectively.
i think the most optimistic predictions i have ever seen.... have them at 5 years after production until they reach profitability status (and that was before the last jump in estimated funds needed.) production would certainly pump the emotional response... but would not do much for the actual value of the company.... but then again, i am surprised to see it holding as high as it is now.
I'm less interested in information that is a couple months old, and more interested in hearing some tangible, workable plans for getting the finances in order. their last filing indicated that they would still be about $130mil short if they get the ATVM loan approved this is a real problem, that all the positive thinking, and engineering work in the word cannot possibly fix. the finances have always been the weakness with this company.
this is an investment board, not a fan club. (even if the board went up just before the stocks were available for trade)
there is a difference between spin and healthy skepticism.
for this press release, i don't see that it has any significance at all. it's not at all like the financial report where the amount of money they say they need to reach production jumped by $72 million, or another production push... it's, for all intents and purposes, a simple personnel move.
i am also a reservation holder, and i was a stock holder.... got in on the initial offering, got out when it was artificially high. (still higher than it should be.)
removed the "off topic" parts. i do wish there were a way to communicate with admins without a paid account.
didn't get quite that much, but it did cover my deposit. so I'm out nothing if they don't make it (except an elio to buy)
the 1-k is quite a read.
I'm not 100% if that statement is meant to say they don't have the money to finish the e series, or just that they don't have enough to get the whole way to production. it is part of other statements about the full $312 million they say they need.
what i find more troubling though, is that $312million figure. the official number was $240million just a few months ago. that is a massive jump in how much money they think they will need. that is not a reassuring change.
was not aware of that one.... seeing as it was published yesterday, i think you could forgive me not knowing that. that is certainly the most recent recall i have ever seen for a vehicle. most are like the next 10 on your list, where they are at least 2 model years ago.
still way longer than 3 months (vehicles are usually released mid year the year before) at least 10 or 11 months of being sold. it is also way way way WAY more than 100 vehicles.
my point still stands.... anyone who sees the 100 elio run as a good thing because it will "work out the kinks" has no idea what they are talking about. that is too short a time, and too small a sample. anything that shows up in that small a sample, right off the factory floor, is likely going to kill any chance elio has of success.
i don't get the clinging to this idea. it is counter-intuitive that people who believe in the company.... somehow hold to an idea that implies the first production vehicles are going to be so fundamentally flawed..... just because it allows them to put a silver lining on the news that main production got pushed (at least) until 2017.
those recalls are for parts of the car that impact multiple years... i.e. the recall is for something 2 years old or older, but is an item still being used in current vehicles. most are for cars that are 10 years old or older.
i have never heard of a recall in the auto industry for an item that was only used for 3 months, or identified in the first 3 months of production... and these are companies that make thousands of vehicles in that 3 months, not 100.
if there is any kink that can be identified in 3 months, it will represent a fundamental engineering failure, not a kink.
it boggles my mind that people who believe in this company are actually pushing this "work out the kinks" concept. if you believe they are going to work out any kinks in the first 100 vehicles, then you are saying you think they have spent all these years designing a flawed vehicle that still needs a lot of work.
totally agree. i don't think there will be any major issues if they get to production.
i just think the idea that they are going to work out kinks with the first 100 is just silly. either the design is ready, or it is not. given the extra years in design mode, due to the loan delay, i tend to think it will be good to go, when the time comes. any recalls they might see would be at least 1-2 years later (don't think I've ever seen an auto recall for something that had not been out for at least a year).
as there is no way to know what/if those hypothetical recalls would entail, it is pointless to speculate on the hypothetical impact to the company, before they have made anything.
sometimes the situation is just what it is. the need to give everything a positive spin is a little irritating. might be less irritating if the logic actually held up.
here are their options:
1. get the loan approved
2. start selling vehicles
3. bankruptcy
everyone knows that they need to make and sell the vehicles to succeed as a business. everyone knows that they need to figure a way to start production for that to happen, and everyone knows that every delay is bad for their long term chances of success.
trying to put a positive spin on the delay in full production is a rationalization. like most rationalizations, it is willfully ignorant of the facts. if anything gets identified in that short period, on that few elios.... that is not a good thing. not all news is good news. the delay really is bad news for the company... no matter how much true believers want to spin it. that they are making the 100 to sell is good news, but the delay in the rest is not.
then be prepared to wait many more years. the recalls that typically affect vehicles are for several model years previous, and they take a fleet of many thousands to identify. they also tend to require some time to identify.
100 vehicles is a small sample. a quarter or two is a very short time frame. if anything gets identified on the fleet vehicles, in that time frame, that is not a kink.... that is an engineering failure, and a major problem. due to the delay in the loan approval, they have had a few more years of engineering, and the e series. if they come out of that with problems that can be identified that quickly, on that few vehicles.... then they will have failed.
to be sure, there will likely be recalls of some sort on the elio... but they should be over a longer time frame, after more production vehicles hit the road. the problems should be minor, rare, or resulting from wear and tear. if they get identified on the first 100... then that is not the case.
my point is not that there will be no problems of any sort.... but that if they show up on the first 100, in the first couple months.... that is not a good thing for anyone who wants to own one of these.... it will be an indication that no one should want to.
the rationalization is strong with this one.
the delay with the 100 fleet vehicles is probably a good thing.... in that it may represent a change in strategy to something that has a chance of success if/when the loan falls through. but the "they can work out the kinks on the fleet vehicles" is the saddest attempt to make lemonade out of this, that keeps popping up.
if anything major shows up systemically on 100 vehicles, in a couple months before they hope to start real production, then they have bigger problems than a few kinks. its a small sample, with a short time frame. it would be a major engineering fail if anything significant shows up in that time frame. it would severely damage their reputation, and the cost required to quickly fix it before the rest go into production could be the last nail in the coffin. they really can't afford any kinks to be worked out.
i agree with mymoola. i don't think it is a scam, but the business plan is pretty bad. if the loan doesn't happen (been in limbo for over 2 years --- the reason the dates keep slipping) and they don't come up with an alternative (some way to start making sales, and not just reservations) then they are done. i don't know if the 100 fleet vehicles are enough for that, but is at least a step in the right direction.
one of the most common criticisms of elio (that gets deleted from most elio friendly forums). no development work at all is being done at the factory. the ones they are making now are engineering series, and are technically being built by someone else (which is why it is in Michigan) when these are done, elio, itself, will still have never built a vehicle.
if you bought in the initial offering, i think your fine. but those who are buying now are just giving their money to the short sellers. (short volume still 50% of the total volume)
i like this company, and have high hopes for them... but they are 5 years away from profitability... and that is best case. stock price does not belong where it is, for many years to come.
it is there to generate positive public image.
negative or skeptical points of view are policed with a level North Korea would envy. (used to be worse, but they were pushing face book policies to the breaking point, and now have to let some slide by) not quite as bad as the actual owners forums, but there is a clear and deliberate focus on maintaining the propaganda. to be fair, it is the official company site.. so it is reasonable they want to maintain the company image there... but be sure to not base your investments only on what you see there.
fair warning, the face book is heavily scrubbed
going to have to downgrade my opinion on the future of elio.
just got banned from the owners site for... well, they wouldn't say exactly, except for some vague notion of voicing opinions contrary to what die-hards want to hear. (like the stock should not be so high, and the company could consider not spending every dime it just raised on the e series) their policy is, apparently, to block any hint of skepticism.
now knowing how much of the public support resides at that site (i would guess a majority of those who got in on crowd source funding are members), and seeing first hand how truly delusional they are... on purpose.... i really have to second guess what the company has going for for it. if this is the measure of the people who believe in the company the most, then what does that say about the company? these were people excited to buy stock when it got below $30, despite the attempts to warn them. (though, apparently, trying to warn them at all is a ban-able offense, so the warnings were limited).
i still like the product, and hope to own one one day, but i am glad to have gotten out on the plus side. it is hard to see a future for a company so surrounded by yes men, who are so adverse to reality. i still think they might succeed, but my faith is considerably less that they will.
personally, i think it is OK if someone wants to believe in the long term viability, but I'm not sure why there is such resistance to the idea that the stock should not be worth twice as much, or more, as when it was originally offered. there has been no major development that should have driven the price up.
based on emotion.
that is what the price of this stock is based on right now. it clearly is not based on value, it is based on the hope they will make this thing... one day.
the original offering was $12, and most who bought it are those who have followed this company trough 2+ years of being not much further behind where they are now. many of these people are true believers who will ride it out if the price goes below 12. but above 12... easy money is easy money. with as bloated as the price got, quite a few took the easy money, so i expect it will drop lower than 12 with those who got caught up in the price run away, and were not original investors.. but that's where it would have sat if not for the brokerage debacle.
i dumped awhile ago.
not saying it should be worth $12, just that i could see that being a place the price would stick. most who bought shares do see this as a long term gamble, and are not likely to dump the shares for a loss. the shares should not go up, because there is no change that has increased the chance elio will succeed, but i can see it not going down, because many would hold before selling for a loss.... they already see it as a gamble, and might decide to just let it ride if the price tried to go much lower.
there is definitely no reason for those who don't own to want to buy above 12, but there is little motivation for those who own shares to sell below 12. a large portion of the shares are owned by true believers.... they have spent years holding onto hope the elio will happen.... they are not likely to dump stock at a loss on the fear that it won't now.
possibly not. I'm just glad to be in a position where i have a reservation, but I'm not really out any money if it never happens.
i do think $12 would be a reasonable price, just because that was what it originally sold for, even if there are factors that should drive confidence down further. it definitely should not be higher.
elio brings out extremes. there are the true believers... who would imagine some way it might still happen if they declared bankruptcy today... and there are those who hate elio... mostly those who are sick of waiting, and/or think it is a scam. most people are just waiting to see
my concern with the stock is that i think the issues with getting it into brokerages created an artificially constrained supply, and it is higher than it should be right now. the shares sold originally for $12. nothing has really changed since they sold them. (in fact, they delayed production another quarter) they should not be moving very far from $12 until there is something more concrete suggesting they will get to production. (IMHO)
personally, i managed to sell my shares, and offset my deposit. (Merrill is GTG, for those interested) so, if they fail, I'm out nothing. if they succeed, I'm 4230 in line.
i might buy back in in the future, but it will need to get back closer to where it should be.
i hope not. that is exactly where i am at.
it is changing. some have stopped taking it. i expect some will start taking it in the future, that do not now.
scottrade was, but stopped, same for shwab. TD ameritrade and etrade are also a no.