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Have you read the federal rules?
https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/PLAW-110publ140/pdf/PLAW-110publ140.pdf
Do you understand the how the DoE is required to administer the ATVM program?
https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/CFR-2013-title10-vol4/pdf/CFR-2013-title10-vol4-part611-subpartB.pdf
No, that is not accurate. Tesla, Aptera, Fisker, and Elio too are required to demonstrate the ability to raise the capital for development, production and repayment of the loan.
The only thing the SEC filings tell, is the reality of starting a mass production vehicle company. Nothing more, nothing less, it is a brutal industry to break into and the American automotive landscape is littered with the carcass's of failed vehicle companies.
Elio Motors is a risk, just as Tesla Motors was, early in their history and remains today.
From Tesla Motors last SEC 10Q filing in 2015;
"We have a history of losses and have to deliver significant cost reductions to achieve sustained, long-term profitability and long-term commercial success.
We have had net losses in each quarter since our inception, except for the first quarter of 2013. Even if we are able to continue to increase vehicle production and sales and ramp production and sales of Tesla Energy products, there can be no assurance that we will be profitable. In order to achieve profitability as well as long-term commercial success, we must continue to achieve our planned cost reductions, control our operational costs while producing quality vehicles, increase our production rate, and have strong demand for our vehicles as well as Tesla Energy products. Failure to do one or more of these things could prevent us from achieving sustained, long-term profitability."
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000156459015009741/tsla-10q_20150930.htm
The criteria for the ATVM loan is set by Congress, and yes, it applies to all applicants.
It is not accurate that DoE requires a company to raise the amount of private capital equal to the amount of the loan sought. However the loan seeker does need to demonstrate they would be viable business over the length of the loan, and be able to repay the loan.
I think Elio Motors has a good shot at getting the ATVM loan, however it's highly dependent on both the results of their engineering vehicle testing, and demonstrating actual sales of production vehicles, e.g. 100 vehicles being sold to fleet reservations, these are key criteria areas of the ATVM loan program in the due diligence stage Elio Motors is currently at.
When Elio Motors conducts their engineering testing this summer we'll know whether mass production will happen. The testing will either confirm the fuel economy or not.
Along with validation of fuel economy, and ability to pay back the loan e.g. verification of sales, that's how we'll know if the ATVM loan will likely happen or not.
What share debacle?
If you're asking whether some of the larger, presumably informed brokerages were either asleep or don't care about Regulation A+ (and the likely mini/micro IPO $$ tsunami on the way) and the new investors it is bringing to the market. Good question.
I'm not sure about Fidelity, but I've already let TD Ameritrade know all my business is going with the broker who wanted to play ball in the post Reg A+ world - Schwab. As far as I'm concerned with a number of the brokers, and channeling Michael Corleone: Fredo, you're nothing to me now.
That's just my opinion, but maybe we'll see some interesting changes in the economy as new investors go with brokerages that "get" it.
As a reservation holder, from what I've observed over the years, Elio Motors has brought out mostly very balanced people who are reservation holders, who understand it's a long arduous journey attempting to start a mass production vehicle company - many of us reservation holders comprise most of the share holders from the recent Reg A+ offering.
Based on reservation holder polling on a couple of the popular Elio chat groups, it's pretty clear at those individuals look at Elio as a long term (decades) investment. Based on public comments made by Paul Elio last year at the NYIAS, there were at that time less than five hundred people who had asked for their reservations to be refunded, at the time that would have been just around 1% of reservation holders, while its not clear that means people are satisfied with Elio Motors, it's very clear an enviably small number of people are dissatisfied enough to want to get out of their reservation. To me that suggests Elio Motors had and likely still has significant log term support in a large base of people for a company that is essentially, completely unknown to most potential car buyers.
It's entirely possible Elio Motors might fizzle out of existence tomorrow, however the company shows extraordinary grit, and so far consumer confidence has followed despite not being in production yet.
Elio Motors was founded in 2008. Their original production target was July 2014, then into January 2015, then Summer, then Fall and then to where it is now with 100 vehicles originally to be used for internal purposes being produced in the 4qtr and full scale production in 2017.
Elio Motors, like any new mass production vehicle start up has always been very risky. This is explained in black and white in their reservation agreements, regardless if one chooses a refundable reservation or non-refundable reservation. I have a fairly high tolerance for risk and am both a "all in"/non-refundable reservation holder and share holder.
I think it worth pointing out Elio motors is attempting to bring a vehicle that is Federally classified as a motorcycle to market, that will meet automotive safety standards and far surpass typical automotive fuel economy (due partly to the vehicles shape and long stroke 3cyl engine they designed with IAV) on a budget so far that is less tan Tesla (let alone any of the big boys) expends monthly on R&D. That said Elio Motors will need to raise about another $240 million to make it to production. The company has a good plan for getting there, I think they will, there are those who think they won't. Everyone should do their own due diligence. IMHO.
These are the brokers we know who are accepting ELIO transfers; Charles Schwab, Smith Barney, Morgan Stanley, Merill Lynch, Alpine Securities, Interactive Brokers, First Clearing, Bank of America
Interesting news today from Elio Motors. While they had previously said they were going to use the first 125 vehicles for some purpose other than sales, they have just released a revision of that.
They will build the first 100 vehicles for fleet sales in Shreveport in December. It is extremely expensive to do this, I think they are doing it for the reasons they describe in their press release, I think it's also likely they are taking this step in part to close a deal either for VC or DOE's ATVM loan. We will see.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/elio-motors-plans-sell-100-153200252.html
While some of the information you're referencing is accurate, you're portrayal of the information is less than accurate.
Elio Motors does not yet take "deposits", they do however take "reservations" for a spot in line, and a reduction in the final cost of the vehicle, if they go into production, this is comparable to Kickstarter. Elio Motors offers both refundable "want in" and non-refundable "all in" reservations from $100, $250, $500 and $1000. This is what their refundable reservation agreement says that one must electronically sign if they choose to make a reseration. https://www.eliomotors.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/REFUNDABLE-RESERVATION-AGREEMENT.pdf
Elio Motors will use some of the manufacturing equipment (which they purchased) in the former GM plant in Shreveport that they lease from Industrial Realty Group. However their production partner Comau, who was hired by Elio Motors to inventory and sell excess equipment, will also install new equipment needed for both finishing the engine (the engines will be cast by Nemak) and vehicle assembly in Shreveport.
Paul Elio was very clear, in his meeting with Caddo Parish Commissioners and public in January 2015 that the reason for delays has been funding, and it has been his fault for misjudging when they would gain access to needed capital. I think his candor as a CEO struggling to get his company's vehicle to market is rare, most CEO's would not be so forthright. The following is a fair and balanced report from KSLA's Victoria Shirley http://www.ksla.com/story/28037171/ksla-news-12-investigation-elio-could-face-fines-with-further-production-delays The raw interview footage is insightful, I think, into Elio's integrity and obvious lack of charisma such as Elon Musks.
The initial price Elio Motors believed they could sell their vehicle in 2010 was $5,995, it was called the Trikke. This was referenced in a City of Pontiac Michigan's general employees retirement system meeting Elio Motors sought funding from at the time. http://www.pontiac.mi.us/document_center/gers021010spec.pdf
By 2012 they believed they would need to sell the vehicle for $7,200 however by the time they began taking reservations they had worked their way to $6,800MSRP where it remains today. In a January 2015 interview with Jalopnik Paul Elio said they were within $500 of the target MSRP and continuing to work their way to that goal and believed they could get there, that figure is also referenced in their August 2015 filing for Regulation A+ with the SEC.
Elio Motors has built with their partner Technosports Creative five prototypes (technically they are mules) called P1,P2,P3,P4 and the last prototype P5, though P! actually became P2 when they added body panels to it.
Other than three wheels, there's nothing similar about Elio Motors vehicle and Apera's or the company's business models. Aptera as a company was all over the place in terms of business model whether they were limited or mass production, whether they were EV or ICE, whether they sat two or more passengers, etc, etc, etc. Elio Motors has remained laser focused on what they are; safe, fuel efficient, low cost, American made, mass production, commuting.
It is accurate if Elio Motors does not begin hiring employees in Shreveport this year they will be fined by RACER Trust $5000 for each automotive employee position they do not fill from the 1,500 employees they agreed to hire. Their Board member and "angel investor" Stuart Lichter who owns Industrial Realty Group (IRG) and who's company actually holds the lease on the entire Shreveport plant (he sublets to Elio Motors), will experience a significant balloon in the lease from the current $25,000/mo nearly doubling to $257,000/yr. Elio Motors also disclosed in their SEC filing last August, with updates as required, other liabilities including an interest rate hike on a loan from a past missed deadline.
I would agree Elio Motors has not gotten into production at the times they estimated they would, and Paul Elio has explained why and accepted full responsibility for that. Otherwise it is not accurate they have missed every deadline, e.g. they completed their engine on schedule though they did not have a big public showing as planned, they surpassed their Reg A+ goal a month ahead of schedule, they recently completed the frame and engine box ahead of schedule, etc, etc. Sadly, Elio Motors has learned from their mistakes of providing too much information (and some very vocal and caustic comments from the public), and over the past year have started doing what most other manufacturers do...keep tight lipped until something is actually finished.
All this information is very public if one does their due diligence.
While there's obviously plenty of risk for anyone attempting to start a new mass production vehicle company, there are no knives and certainly at this point nothing inevitable other than a small company making one hell of run to try and get what I think, as a reservation holder, as a very worthy product to market.
I tend to agree.
There are a couple key areas Elio Motors msut nail to receive the ATVM loan, which I think is critical to making it to production.
It is clear that they need to conduct tests that verify what their simulations show. I'm very confident in this area that Elio Motors will do well.
Elio Motors has been meticulous in how they developed and designed their vehicle, and utilized industry standard computer modeling to date. Both IAV who designed their power plant, and Altair Engineering who has done all the computer simulations are well recognized in the automotive industry for their particular skills. Elio Motors spent a lot of money having the right people, do the right kind of work up front. In terms of engineering and design, they are spot on.
The other key area Elio Motors needs to show they are spot on with includes demonstrating a means of repayment of the ATVM loan, and solvency throughout the duration of the loan.
These things looks clear to me in the Federal Register circular, here's the applicable snipit (the whole thing is much longer). https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/CFR-2013-title10-vol4/pdf/CFR-2013-title10-vol4-part611-subpartB.pdf
Section 611.101
(6) The applicant’s liquidity as of the
date of the loan application;
(7) Statements from applicant’s lend-
ers that the applicant is current with
all payments due under loans made by
those lenders at the time of the loan
application; and
(8) Financial projections dem-
onstrating the applicant’s solvency
through the period of time that the
loan is outstanding.
(c) A detailed explanation of how the
proposed project qualifies under appli-
cable law to receive a loan or award
under this part, including vehicle sim-
ulations using industry standard model
(need to add name and location of this
open source model) to show projected
fuel economy;
Elio Motors regularly updates their tour schedule on their website and FB page;
https://www.eliomotors.com/find-us/#events
They also as mentioned by others have TV spots running on a number of mostly smaller networks though Fox is largest. Their latest ad, put out today, can be found here.
I think they may have meant naked short selling (its not legal), basically short selling without having confirmed stock to borrow and sell short.
Elio is far from qualifying for CAFE standards, it will literally take an Congress to get that.
$1000 profit per vehicle however is, as I understand, only for the base vehicle. That does not include the options people may choose to add, think of the Elio approach to options as a "Chinese menu" of sorts.
Elio Motors is in the second of a three stage process for seeking a Department of Energy Advanced Technology Vehicles Manufacturing (ATVM) loan totaling $185 million.
They just finished their Regulation A+ stock offering, for just under $17 million. While it's above what they needed, it's below what many of us reservation holders and new investors had hoped they would actually bring in.
Regardless, it is allowing them to proceed with building 25 engineering vehicles for verification of simulations. This is, this is one of a couple key requirements for a successful ATVM loan.
Elio Motors has said they'll make about $1000 profit on each vehicle.
Where things would get very interesting, is if either of the bills in Congress, submitted on their behalf by Sen. Vitter and Rep. Moolenaar or their schmoozing/consulting with former NHTSA chief leads to an "autocycle" category in the Title 49 of the Federal Code. Elio has designed their vehicle to be equivalent to automobile safety standards even though it, like all vehicles with less than four wheels, is federally classified as a motorcycle (the Elio will have a motorcycle VIN), if they happen to get that designation, they will be able to participate in the CAFE credits standards program. They could practically give the vehicle away and still make a profit off of selling credits to all the other manufacturers struggling to get their fleet averages up.
I'm not sure the Chinese will be interested in an Elio knock off, since the Elio is already a knock off itself. So many of the components of the Elio are already in use across a number of vehicles, heck the hood uses old school pins (no latch), and the washer fluid reservoir is the bottle the fluid comes in...
I've been all in since 2014, though following Elio for some time before. Best guess is Comau starts to set up the lines in October, and the first line starts in mid/late December. The first line will start at 70% capacity, and it will take 45 days to get to 100%, then they'll do the same with the second line, and within that time will be able to produce 19,000 vehicles. After 90 days, they'll be capable of running full capacity and be able to produce 500 vehicles on each line for a total of 1000 per day. The company has said that the first 120 vehicles will be reserved for special purposes. For all intentions, I think we won't see reservation holders behind the wheel and on the streets until early 2017. But I think technically they'll get into production this year.
I think the share price will correct big time down. However, if the ATVM loan comes through, which is critical to making it to production, the gloves will be off and $40/share will be remembered as peanuts.
Too bad you're not in to Harley's it's the only other American motorcycle company I can think of that has a virtually cult like following like Elio Motors does. Otherwise I find it hard to describe the intense fervor many of us reservation holders share for the company.
Are you familiar with Elio Motors structural design and materials use? The vehicle me has a full Martinsitic steel roll cage, front and rear crumple zones, three airbags, etc. As a reservation holder following the company for some time I was and remain very impressed with their maximum utilization of existing technology and avoidance of "new technology" hype. I'm a motorcyclist too, though ADV I'm not into street riding other than getting me to off road trails. But the Elio will be significantly safer than any motorcycle, and because of smart engineering safer than most people assume. Take a look at the following now somewhat dated paper from Oak Ridge National Lab (this is the grand daddy of federal labs, on safety factors for light vehicles. There is considerably more written but this is a great place to start http://web.ornl.gov/info/ornlreview/v41_3_08/article14.shtml
I would agree there is a real risk of pump and dump for ELIO at the moment.
However if your unfamiliar enough with the company to believe that any of the Chinese manufacturers who indeed already build enclosed trikes, are anywhere similar to the engineering and business model Elio Motors has developed with their vehicle you do need to spend some time doing due diligence.
As both a reservation holder and investor (I have no interest in selling stock anytime soon, and virtually the other reservation holders I know share a similar perspective) Elio has a very interesting approach both from an engineering and product development perspective, as well as a near Harley cult like following, and importantly an interesting business model that is based on Elio's "4 must haves" with certainly an eyebrow raiser of parts suppliers fundamentally involved in their vehicles development, etc. It's just not possible to quickly or easily build that corporate culture and message.
I "reserved" my Elio #12436 for several reasons; 1) it is one of the ways Elio Motors raises capital to help them get to production, 2)I will get a break on the final cost of the vehicle through their incentive program, 3) in the event they make it to production I am assured the ability to purchase one in the first year of production, 4) based on Elio Motors projections of building 19,000 vehicles in the first 90 days my production number would come up about 60 days after production starts, 5)I like the idea of being at the start of something. That's why I made a reservation versus just waiting.