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Here is a fact that shouldn't be overlooked....this company (1st Detect) and this product (mms-1000) have been in the market place for 10 years...10 YEARS, and they have sold 0, thats zero units...
they have marketed this thing to every industry imaginable; healthcare, transportation, food and beverage, gas and oil, and all kinds of government agencies in between...even partnered with key players in some of these markets and still have been unable to move a single unit....all they have accomplished are a handful of development deals, but none of them have come to fruition...
all they have today is essentially what NASA gave them 10 years ago...do you realize at that time NASA gave them this technology they also included a 2 million dollar "development contract" so it could be used by NASA on their probes....do you know who NASA ended up going with? ill give you a hint not 1st DETECT ---try SwRI (what does that tell you about this company/product?)
LOL...there is not one mention of 1st Detect in that entire document...which somehow you surmise means that once 1st Detect gets approved they'll springboard straight to the top...LOL
What this reaffirms to me is Pickens probably had a 10 minute phone conversation with some government official who knows somebody at the TSA that told him to send some additional info in the mail ---which Pickens then spun into a press release as "Tracer 1000 Begins Testing for Passenger Screening at Airports"!!!! just so the stock would pop and he could unload some shares out of a third party trading account...
btw are you familiar with L3 and or SMiths Detect who's names are all over that PDF? ---nobody special except multi-billion dollar incumbents in the security screening biz...Im sure Astrowreck and its 8 million dollars will take them out....LOL
lol....good lord you really have fallen into the rabbit hole here....the really "impressive" stat is that it took them three years to get the 41k in revenue
maybe...did you happen to notice that 908devices won the CBRN bid, they were partnered with Smiths Detect on this...which is the same company Pickens has been desperately trying to sell 1st Detect to...makes me think there is no market for 1st detect products or the company.
I think you're right on the money with this assessment, the industry is moving away from xray scanners to cat scanners (3d cat scanners to be exact)...but unbelievably you failed to connect the critical dots that 1st Detect isn't in the 3d cat scanner business...they supposedly develop mini mass spectrometers...which is a completely different technology platform.
lol...i'd be careful here. The only thing this company has ever produced in 10 years are press releases...never any sales.
You don't remember this,(probably never knew it) but they once announced that they were an exclusive OEM provider to the multi-billion dollar instrument manufacture Rigaku corporation. ---do you know how much money they realized from this "mega deal" over the past 5 years?...zero dollars and zero cents....
I actually talked to a senior sales manager from Rigaku a few years ago and he said he had never heard of 1st Detect much less of any OEM agreement between the companies...now I'm not saying this latest press release is a complete fabrication but....who knows what T Boone has determined as a "successful demo" but I can guarantee you there is no way this "company", (1st Detect) has sold or is going to be selling anything to the TSA or anyone else for that matter
Well...here's another hunch, Pickens is very interested in selling, and has gone back and forth with a potential buyer, ( in all likelihood Smiths)--and the number so far isn't great.
You're probably not familiar with IMSC but it was a company with a very similar product line with annual sales of 50 million dollars, it was bought for 100 million and change out of a bankruptcy proceeding.
Now you can say, and many do that 1st Detect is the cornerstone of this and that, but remember minus a few development contracts over the past 10 years this company and this product have produced zero sales thats 0, a goose egg, nada, zipoo
The fair valuation right now would be solely based on the patent portfolio as it sits, probably 10-15 million, if they got someone else involved in the horse race maybe it gets pushed to 25 ----an out of this world number would be 50.
I imagine Smiths is willing to play a game of chicken to see if it can be scooped up in bankruptcy for pennies and Pickens of course will do his best to get others interested, (hence the announcement)....should be interesting I'm betting it goes for 15-20 million or 75-80 cents/share
Oh and by the way whatever it sells for you better get the hell out at whatever the price is...remember Pickens isn't selling the "company" he's just selling a subsidiary, so the money won't be going to the shareholders it will be going to him and his boonedoogle clan.....
just another in a long line of recent pumps to try to get some air into the flat tire.
btw---are you aware that Battelle pulled the plug on the NGCD opportunity?
not widely known of course, but 1st Detect did put a one liner in the recent Q about it -----------"1 st Detect’s portion of the contract was successfully completed; however, 1 st Detect’s partner has indicated that they do not plan to pursue the next phase of the program."
Which is really surprising even to me considering this was a multi-award contract in which Battelle/1st Detect were the only participants in a couple of the phases---just how bad is the mms-1000?
Yeah okay...it was 1,783,746 shares not 2,000,000..for 90 not 80 cents, actually the amount was (.8986/share) --if you're going to be a precise a-hole steve you need to work on it a little more but I think you're doing a great job of that already...
but he bought that block of shares from SMH CAPITAL ADVISORS, INC, (a hedge fund) to gain majority control of the company to keep John Porter, a recently deposed CFO (not long time shareholder) who had a pending lawsuit against Pickens from taking over the company.
and further more I can tell you he's made plenty of money from his time as majority shareholder, president/ceo and chairman of the board of this company, --most of which is not readily apparent to many, certainly not the likes of you...
most of this conversation is pointless anyway, because we both agree the company is going nowhere, but in the meantime take some prozac and a nap you gullible fool...
I'd say he's done okay with this stock....considering he was able to buy a 2 million share block in an obvious prearranged after hour trade with a hedge fund @80 cents then sell a large chunk back to the company for a set price of $1.62
Not to mention it allowed him to keep his job which he pays himself a million a year for and I strongly suspect some third party trading occurring in nominee accounts---this stock has traded 10--12 million shares on occasion upwards to $4.....I'd say Boone and the boys, (and girl) have done very well with this....even if it ultimately goes to zero in a bankruptcy he'll have made out
remember the only purpose of this is to give him a cover story, "Boone the Businessman" ---none of it really matters...none of it is real
The stock is hovering just above some key price levels...when it starts closing under $1.25 I expect it will make a quick trip down to $1, once that breaks it will find its familiar territory in the pennies quite soon...just the nature of stock trading, especially lightly traded ones, sometimes it takes a little time for price to reflect reality.
Ten years ago I would have agreed with you...but a lot has changed in 10 years in the mini mass spectrometry market except for 1st Detect. There are quite a few competitors out there who have teamed up with bigger industry leaders who posses substantial amount of money and man power to develop this product line. There is no evidence that 1st Detect possesses anything...they have not sold a single commercial unit ever, ever in their 10 year history...not even to NASA who more or less gave them the technology they possess today and nearly 2 million dollars to help develop it for their space program, (NASA ended up buying a mini mass spectrometer from Swri) --what does that tell you?
1st Detect will be completely out of cash by the end of the year unless a "highly" dilutive financing action is taken....which at best would net them 20--30 million dollars...enough to putter around for another year or two at best.
Yeah...its interesting technology, and there are tons of real life applications and problems that could be solved by it if you could find a way of squeezing down the science of mass spectrometry into small hand held portable device that still deliver a high degree of positive detection rates with real time or "nearly" real time reporting.....but I can tell you my friend that is a much bigger job than 1st Detect can solve...
The only hope is that somehow Pickens can "commercialize" 1st Detect through one of the two partnership agreements ether through an outright sale of the company or the very unlikely scenario of being an OEM distributor before he runs out of money
Of course he could go down the IMSC road of "creative" financing with dirt cheap warrants, etc, etc, (cause they'd have to be for anyone to finance him at this point) which could keep boonedoogle going for another couple of years...by then dads estate should be settled he can give up on this impersonation of a businessman...
you're correct, that is the "likely" scenario, but in the very unlikely event that Smiths Detection wins the TSA award I think they would just buy 1st Detect and be done with it--
The patent portfolio is probably worth 5-10 million as it sits....I could see Smiths Detection paying up if they got a good indication they were going to win the TSA bid....saves them the hassle of dealing with Pickens as a OEM provider...1st Detect does not have the experience, knowledge or capability at any level to manufactuture thousands of devices (even simple daughter board cards) so it makes sense just to buy him out.
25--50 million could be doable...remember thats small change for someone like Smiths
lol----well its a little better than it use to be....he has released earnings in the middle of the night, (midnight) in hopes that nobody would notice...now days I don't think he cares.
and you shouldn't expect 1st Detect to sell any units ever...the only hope here is that they can sell the company to somebody rather soon...like within the next year for something around 50 million, which is a big ask for a company that's never sold a single unit of their product...
I suggest you get a better idea of what it means to be a debt or equity holder going through BK process before ordering up seconds on this turkey dinner....you'll be lucky to get some scraps much less a bite to eat.
100M would be good price, 150M would be an incredible price.....for a recent comparison, Morpho got taken out by Smiths for 700M but they had 300M in annual sales...nothing special here is going to escape the age old 2 times annual revenue barometer..
LOL....every law firm loves a class action lawsuit, they all have the same template on hand that can be filled out by a $20/hour clerk in 15 minutes...when the settlement comes in it will be for fees/expenses, (which the law office will bill for about $250--$500k) --they might hand the mob a $100k to distribute amongst yourselves which will work out to about 2 or 3 cents a share...but you can say you "stuck it to the man"
a good question, since most acquisitions prices are based on gross revenue....this situation would need to be determined by hope and dreams, (a high water mark in my estimation would be 100m) I think a lot will be determined by the IMSC buyout..
Its always been Pickens intent to sell any and all of the subsidiaries...that's what ASTC is, a holding company...like a pawn shop for businesses...he's said as much during investment conferences. and given the fact that they (astc) got rid of pretty much all of their sales/marketing and program development folks, and a load of engineers, plus took down all the job ads gives me the impression they are starting to shrink wrap this baby for sale, probably to Smiths Detection...real question is when and for how much..."close" could mean another 6 months to a year with these types of transactions but its much sooner than 2021...
Q1 of 2021 is the expected award date....I wouldn't buy or hold the stock on the expectation that they will ever sell any product, but I think they are getting close to selling the company, (1st Detect)