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Yes I have added over last 2-3 weeks
JUNO’s market cap is 9B
Pfizer has a market cap of 220B as one of the largest BP . I think people need to get realistic at some point in their expectations
Hi Flip
I agree the warrant holders are friendlies. But naked short part , I am not so optimistic about . They obviously know by now that a positive publication is imminent . If they are not scared about that moving the SP significantly or their ability to cover without getting hurt , I don’t think they care much about when warrants are exercised . More over if you go to any stock message board esp the ones which are in their lows , you will see the talk about short squeeze of historic proportions happening soon . But in reality it happens very rarely ( I mean of historic magnitude )
If they were still confident of publication coming out any day , why bother renegotiating and modifying the terms of the warrants ??
So looks like no imminent publication
To make data more current , they will have to wait spring refresh to be done , so it will likely be June- July by the time they can update the data and then start updating the publication and go over the whole process again for peer reviews and editings which will take few months
Because they won’t be able to publish that till next year and they don’t have money to stay solvent till then and neither have authorized shares to sell more
Doubt that’s behind the SP increase . Seems more technical based . There is no volume for it be leak or news driven
Agreed
Need more volume for the follow through
Can you post a link
I hope Clay trader doesn’t show up so we can have some follow through for next few days
Hope so
Flip
I hope you realize , they will need to sell another few hundred million shares if we are looking at 18 months for finishing the trial and a definitive news ( not just the enrollment update )
Sorry for spellings errors , those were autocorrects or mistypes , by typing in an iPhone .
Hi Doc
There are lot of conflicting interests in that scenario. 65 docs have primary objective to have their name in most prestigious journal possible . On the other hand if I am Warren Buffet investing my money on nwbo , I am looking at ROI. If there are nefarious forces working to delay or deny publication , as an investor , I would say screw academic journals , just declare the data and apply for approval . But then LP has to rely on those docs to gather the data in reliable manner . So you see it gets complicated . And I understand the complexities and delays . But to put all the lanes on short sellers is not right either . I am just not convinced that every morning every MM, short seller , hedge fund manager walkers up with an ambition to naked short NWBO which trades barely 100-200k worth of stock a day , not worth their while ...
And I am sure if you go to MNKD message boards , you probably will find similar euphoric posts just before and after the approval , that they will rule the world as who would want to object themselves 2-4 times a day when you can just use an inhaler ... sounds perfectly logical . They pretty much had no competition . But fast forward and look at the reality
Eventually serious large investors ask one question “Show me the money “
Look at MNKD , they have only available inhaled insulin on the market , long approved and being sold , and their market cap is 325 Mil
As they couldn’t market , commercialize , sell the product efficiently or successfully . You have to realize even after approval , there will be a year of cash burn , by the time product is eventually be paid by insurances , and we don’t even know yet if they have applied for any kind of approval or not or what the plan is regarding the same
I would love NWBO’s mkt cap to shoot to 30 billion after the publication so I can retire , but that just now how the real world works ...
My 2 c again
I am going by what NWBO recently said i.e. that they do data refresh every spring . So last collected and reconciled data from all 80 plus centers should have been last spring which they analyzed in blinded way to write the article . Time frame fits as it seemed to have been written last July- sept range based on speculations here . As I said before if they were sitting in 100 mil cash the data would have had more significant effect on SP . The data obviously was not a slam dunk otherwise they would have unblinded and applied for approval .
As Senti suggested , if they have detailed PR ready to update the current status of blinded data right after the publication , it likely will have more impact , as market needs to see what the end game is as they don’t have money to continue indefinitely and don’t have shares authorized which they have already sold .
Surely possible
Bottom line is market is interested in viability of the company and plan to monetize . If they were sitting on 100 million cash , the article probably would have much bigger effect . They just have to show a definite plan for the end game and is short time frame , only then market will get interested. Surely they can release a PR after the article detailing that
Just my 2 c
Although I agree that article obviously won’t be negative , but I don’t believe it will have the mega effect on SP that everyone is looking for since it will be year old data and still blinded data . One and only thing that really matters at this point is the P3 results and path to approval and commercialization .
How about awarding some options to large shareholders as well who have been holding/ buying for more than 5 yrs and still waiting ..
Senti and Flip
I don’t think they have the luxury of providing an explanation and delay/ prolong the trial . They don’t have funds left to be a going concern if something positive doesn’t transpire soon. They have sold 100s of millions of shares that they don’t have and have to start delivering June onwards . It’s hard to believe the shareholders will vote yes to authorize the share without some material news . They will have to call for vote in May and likely will have to send notice for upcoming vote in April or early May at the latest I think.
On the positive note , if the investors agreed to pay for these millions of shares knowing that they don’t even exist yet , they probably were given some very promising information .
Something has to give now ... in next few weeks ...
He is right
There will news today PM on CNN , just like every other PM ??
How will waiting for long tail increase from 25% to 30% make any difference in chances of approval . And by waiting for an additional year to achieve that, dilute the shareholders by 40-50% .
Agreed Flip
Looks like Feb has come and gone just like any other month and year with again no delivered goods .
Hopefully one of these days ....
Sorry Flip
My bad . Now I remember . I think these two issues came into light fairly close to each other , so I may have been confused
I thought you had posted that you had emailed them to reply in 8k about this issue ?
Hi Flip
From what I understand it is each Journal’s separate business model .
On the other note did you ever get a reply from anyone at NWBO about their matter of fact statement that data refresh happens every spring only . They made that statement as if it was a well known fact , while last years statements regarding only 2 events left and that data lock and multi month process will start etc , don’t imply that at all . If they already knew that standard procedure over the years has been yearly data refresh in spring , then why make those statements last year and just say that wait till next spring ?
Please guys stop it already . I have been long for a long time , but to defend management as if they are above Humans and can’t do no wrong is getting ridiculous. May be they should be given an award for providing most number of opportunities to average down to the investors .
There goes your intact uptrend
How can uptrend stay intact when only news that come out is about new offering . If the article was being published “ imminently “ , what was the reason for another offering at this moment . Unbelievable !!
Nothing in tomorrow’s NEJM
What does not winning a Nobel prize has anything to do with getting FDA approval ? Name one principal investigator who has won Nobel prize for successfully running a trial and getting a drug approved !!
If the data is good , it will get approved even if it is not the first vaccine . There are plenty of antihypertensive drugs on market , still new drugs for hypertension get approved every year
Nope . It’s not a new invention or original discovery . To my knowledge Nobel Prize in Medicine has very rarely been given to a clinical branch/ practicing physician. It is almost always awarded to basic sciences . Consider this a physiologist or molecular biologist discovers or creates a molecule which has therapeutic use and gets a nobel prize. Now an academic clinical physician runs a trial in a particular disease and shows that molecule works in that disease . There is no way that clinician will be given Nobel Prize ..
Nobel prize for discovery of dendritic cells and their role in adaptive immunity was already awarded in 2011. It will be next to impossible to award Nobel prize for the same reason. Although LL is conducting trial for cancer , but the mechanism of action is still adaptive immunity that was already discovered , reported and awarded
As soon as he is done with acquisition of Amazon and Apple . He has too much on his plate at the moment
Hi Doc
Agree with your general sentiment . But those 65 docs won’t have known if any futility recommendation was given IMHO. But I personally don’t believe it was given as NWBO made a statement that they know of no reason for the stock price to decline. ( paraphrasing ) .
Points well taken
I wish I had some precedence for this or examples of of what you are saying in the past , then I will feel more comfortable . Till then I guess it is speculation and follow your guts
Agree with all your points
Only one grief in this whole situation , why don’t accept or categorically deny that no interim or recommendation about futility was received ?
It’s down 10% now on above average volume for the morning and I am not counting the declines over last 10 days . Will see if it recovers some by end of the day
Drop from .39-.29 with no buying pressure is not a consolidation . Lot of the price increase if not all was event driven which turned out to be non event and hence the decline