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Anyone know how long GE has to wait...
To make a new tender offer that would not impact (or cause them to make previous shareowners whole) the previous tender offer ?
I expect as soon as they can they will take out Elliot and stick a fork in it...
I suppose then that other existing shareowners at the time would get Elliot's price..
Just wondering..
Cheers
Yes, the pending split prevented a bid...
They would not have been able to bid until well after the split on Nov 1 which was too late but GE likely knew that and it may have influenced the timing of their bid...
Yes GE has many Billions but we are only talking about less than 600Mil...it would have never gone beyond 1B so ARNC could have easily played that game... they would have at least made GE pay an honest price...
cheers
Listen to Klaus Kleinfeld now CEO of ARNC...
He is pretty bullish on TiAl powders...
I don't know why ARNC didn't bid against GE for ARCAM they would have been a better match I should think being a supplier to all of the big players...I suspect it was because the GE's bid came just when they where splitting the companies... that may have been the catalyst for GEs move...
His comments on powders is at about 8:30
https://finance.yahoo.com/video/arconic-ceo-klaus-kleinfeld-yahoo-203941218.html
BTW did they say who were the buyers of the machines in the 4Q.. I haven't had time to listen to the CC... just wondering if any of the big Aerospace companies put in POs e.g. RR, P&W, Airbus, Honeywell ?
Thanks
Charlie, I would think its the wrong question...
Perhaps the better question is who is the wiser ?
While the person with no shares has no upside potential, he/she also has no downside exposure from a very high valuation; however, the fly could end up with indigestion or catch a deadly virus and die a horrible, cold and lonely death...
The ER appears to be a mixed bag.. looks like Arcam is headed into losses like all the other 3D players.. but sales and deliveries were better than I expected, still not lighting the world on fire but decent... AP&C is doing very well, a real bright spot... The results overall are decent if they were repeatable in Qs 1-3 and not just at year end... Jury is still out unless they give some better guidance going forward, I don't see this ER supporting a higher valuation...
Cheers
Nice... but those 17.50 CALLs...
I sold on my position are going to take me out next month... hum...
I guess I could buy them back... argh...
So Whats going on with SWIR...
Down market and we were up over 9% at one point today... someone knows or thinks they know something...
Cheers
Perhaps but....
They would not have been able to buy more than 5% without tipping their hand and they would have paid more than the 92 cents a share for sure even for that limited level...so doing it the way they did they got 15% of the company for 92 cents a share... they probably could have bought another 5% or so under a buck fifty... we will see if they report a new ownership level soon...
If they did take the cash because they were desperate than this run up is soon going to head south...11 mil won't buy them much time if they are that bad off..
cheers
What if ENPH didn't need the cash from JD/TJ...
But these guys came calling and wanted in... ENPH seeing the advantages of having them involved agreed to do the deal...
Now they are buying on the open market with the objective of eventually doing a leverage buyout... hum...
"the next major user of metals AM technologies"...
I would just like to see Aerospace become a "Major User" of AM technologies...
HW was suppose to have put in a big order last year but that apparently didn't happen... heck even GE Aviation apparently didn't put in a big order... where is RR, Airbus, P&W ?
Lots or rosy articles about the greatness of AM but few POs...
Perhaps the policies changed at Arcam after the GE investment and we will see great things at the Q.. time will tell...
Cheers
"I like and respect monkeys, but they have their place."
Ha.. that's a good one, I will have to tuck that one away for future use...
Cheers
4th qtr in the bag but no sales announcements...
Which either means they didn't have any 2+ orders or they have changed their policies about announcing sales after the GE takeover...
So apparently not even GE threw them a bone, but why would they... GE still wants another 14% at 300 crowns...
Before I can get too excited about Arcam as an investment I need to see the GE competitors in Aerospace and Medical buying machines from GE/Arcam... if this is basically now just a publicly traded division of GE that is basically just going to be selling to GE than it would far less exciting...
I know what GE has stated... now I want to see the orders from the Competitors... show me the money...
Cheers
Tommy & Royallen...agree with both..
Tommy I agree that they have cut costs (way too little way too late) and their technology seems to be in demand but have to agree with Royallen in that they have a very rough road ahead if they don;t turn cash flow positive in next quarter or two at the most.. if they have to do another equity raise we will be diluted 50% for sure... maybe more...
What they really need is a white knight...someone with the capital to properly launch the new products and grow the business while triming overheads starting with the CEO's salary...
I am keeping about 20k shares but I really don't expect to see anything from them... I had a buyout in my portfolio this year so I needed the tax write off.. I don't think I will have any trouble buying those shares back much lower in 60 days if I want them back...
Cheers
Sold half my position today...
They really look like they are on the ropes now... I don't think they will even find a market for the next stock placement... maybe for 50 cents a share... and nearly 50% dilution just to get them a couple of quarters down the road...
Still, One has to assume there is a value to a company with leading technology and revenues of around $300mil... today the company is sitting at a valuation of $60M dollars, lock, stock and barrels... that seems really cheap for a company of this size...
A GE or any number of well healed players could take this company and turn it around in a heartbeat...
But I guess they are all just circling for now waiting for the final breath and then they can pick up the pieces for pennies on the dollar...oh wait, they could do that today...
Maybe they should do a kickstarter campaign or try to get on Shark Tank...
Cheers
Hard to believe they couldn't sell the company...
Back when the PPS was 3-4 bucks a share... surely a combination of SEDG and ENPH would make a monster combination... stop this price war and give SEDG a clear path to new technology... if not SEDG surely there is another player or want a be player...
Don;t know weather to take the tax loss this year or not... my luck they would shoot back up to 2-3 bucks after the 1st... but that does seem unlikely now...
Cheers
NO, if they don't return to positive CF...
That was a disappointing filing... they haven't actually sold any shares yet and hopefully they plan to issue a block buster 4th Qtr report that will raise the PPS and then perhaps they sell a few more shares... of course this is probably wildly optimistic...
If they issue another $17M at a buck or even 1.10 than we will see very significant dilution....
$17 Mil only buys them a quarter or two at the burn rates they were experiencing earlier this year... hopefully they have been able to stop the bleeding but I am not really very optimistic... it does look like they are grouping at straws...
Let's hope 2017 is better for ENPH than 2016 was..
Merry Christmas to Arcam and friends...
And may 2017 be as good as 2016 to all those still holding !
Cheers
Wonder what the catalyst for the PPS is?
Did they land a big order with HW or RR ? Maybe GE put in another bulk order ?
At some point I would think Arcam would trade somewhat on fundamentals of growth and for that to be positive they would need to start selling a lot more than 3 machines a month...
Volume is very low at 11k shares so who knows could just be enthusiasts wanting to be part of the 3D story... that's what propelled Arcam to the 50 dollar level at the peak of the 3D bubble...
No matter the reason congrats to those who have held, you obviously made a wise decision.... I can only take solace in that old story of the elevator boy asking the billionaire how he got so rich to which he said " I never buy at the bottom and I always sell too soon"... or something to that effect...
Enjoy the ride
Cleos, it appears Fidelity is willing to trade...
I use to think AMAVF was an ADR/ADS too but the "F" in AMAVF actually means "Foreign Ordinary"
Here is a good article from Schwab that explains it...
http://www.schwab.com/public/schwab/nn/articles/Going-Global-Trading-Foreign-Stocks-OTC
I am not an expert on the OTC Pink market mechanics but from this article it does sound like these shares may not be subject to cancellation like an ADR is...
BTW there apparently is an ADR for Arcam issued by Citi-Bank under the ticker ARZMY... the "Y" means it's an ADR...
https://www.citiadr.idmanagedsolutions.com/stocks/profile.idms?cusip=039237102
There isn't any volume for it so perhaps it a zombie...
At any rate sounds like you are in good hands with Fidelity so I don't think you have to worry about being able to sell those shares later...
You mentioned that you don't think GE would have any interest in forcing down the price... perhaps, but I don't see it in their interest for the stock to appreciate either... something to keep in mind..
It will also be interesting to see if Elliott starts to unload if the price continues to rise, it is getting above their basis now...
Cheers
Ha, Thanks Cleos...
But sounds complicated.... I wonder how one would even get their physical shares if the ADR shut down... It's my understanding that Arcam takes no official responsibility for the ADRs and didn't really want them created in the first place... unfortunately I don't have any support for that pov but it is something I seem to remember picking up on a long time ago... Enjoy the ride it is a really unusual opportunity/experience...but I think I will wait for the 4th Qtr report which, unless GE throws them a bone, will not be pretty...
Cheers
Cleos, I do have a couple of concerns...
I watch it but will wait a bit longer to decide if I want to take another position... I do worry a bit that the ADR may stop trading.. there is no requirement that there be an ADR for USD buyers... volume today was just 395 shares... So it is pretty ill-liquid now for USD holders...still an exciting company and if they get some orders from Non-GE Aerospace companies than I think you all will do well...
Cheers
Hi Cleos,
Yes it's a good thing that the stock didn't tank after the acceptance period, but I would be more encouraged if they had a big order from Honeywell or RR or any other third party... I would like to see those competitors vote of confidence in dealing with GE...
Still, volume is very low and I guess it will stay that way now... so kinda hard to say what the real valuation is...
But glad it's working out for you... I may re-enter with a position later or I might have missed the boat if it keeps rising... won't be the first one to have gotten away from me...
Cheers
Mr.Twenton, There are a lot of possibilities...
There are a lot of trading sites he could have been using... TD Ameritrade, e-Trade, Swabb, Fidelity, Trade Station, scott trade... you could google them... Here is a link to an article on the "top five"
http://www.stocktrading.net/?vn=ph1-dnav-green-grey-tc2-lp5-cl2&a=144&c=102006&s1=347107263.402992973&agid=18081358586&s4=c&s3=p.g.117279844706&s6=9061201&ls=g
If he was pretty sophisticated he may have had a Bloomberg account or an account at one of the big Wallstreet banks e.g. Goldman..
If you or perhaps Charlie could do this, search his past posts to see if he ever mentioned what platform he was using....
Another alternative would be to contact Arcam to see if his name is recorded but I suppose if the shares where held in street name he won't show up...
Good Luck..
So its official, GE is buying the shares...
They own 73.57% of the company now and have extended the acceptance period til Nov 29th so the other shareowners "can accept the offer"... but with the USD surging those that are holding the ADRs are taking a hit...
So GE has 74% and presumably Elliot has another 10% or so... not much left..
I expect Arcam will turn in another dismal 4th quarter and that will probably be the last straw to allow GE to get another 10% or so...just look at SSYS tonight... ugly... and then they will just wait out the rest of the shareowners or merge Arcam with Concept and take everyone out...
Good luck to those who want to stick it out, I don't blame you, it feels like a heist in plan daylight... just a rotten deal...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ge-agrees-purchase-controlling-shares-154500695.html
Cheers
KR_uk, the dust needs to settle...
Your assessment may be right longer-term if there is even a market but while half of the remaining float is owned by Elliot I don't see any reason for GE to push value creation for the minority interest. More likely they will burden Arcam with a large investment which will have to be absorbed by earnings and it's hard to imagine GE paying a premium for the machines going forward...they could also try to issue more shares so that their 75-80% becomes 90% and then just take you out anyways... I also don't see the shares taking off after the sale closes, I think you would have plenty of time to assess the marketability of those shares after a few months...also to see if the RRs and HWs put in orders or stay away from a competitor...then if the water looks safe to enter, take the dive...
Cheers
Aef & Clos.. not much reason to tender...
Of course you need to do what you feel comfortable with but if you assume GE is true to their word and they won't raise again than today you could get 33.21 on the US exchange just 39 cents below the tender price and you get the money today, don't have to hassle with any paperwork and most importantly you eliminate the risk that GE walks away and your 33 bucks turns into 20 bucks instantly...
If you hold your shares in Crowns than you could have gotten 100% of the tender price yesterday... even today it is within a few Crowns.. so not worth the risk of holding in my opinion...
If the tender goes thru you can assess what the market looks like after the deal and if there is even a US market then make your decision to buy back in or not...
The only real reason to hold that I can think of would be if you think there might be another bidder come into play between now and Nov 10th..
On a side note, I wish I could sue GE for stealing our shares... really ticks me off... I think they had all this inside knowledge of pending orders they were going to make and simply held them back to keep the price low.. Arcam played right along with that last Qtrly report... In short us shareowners were sold down the river by Management and the BOD...
REALLY Ticks me off...
T does seem to have found a bottom....
I don't know if it's because Mr. Market is factoring in a good chance the TW deal doesn't close or if it is value investors supporting the stock based on the high dividend yield...
I sold some PUTs here... hopefully it will not go to 30 which is where I figured it would go after the deal...
Cheers
So is this it.. the end...
Broke the buck today... sad day indeed... looks like Mr. Market is sticking a fork in it.. I guess they are really going to go BK... Looks like someone would buy them out now... SEDG could do it with a fraction of the cash on hand and own the inverter market... I guess just too much bad blood between them...
Hope someone comes along and throws them a life line...
Cheers
You have to hand it to GE M&A...
If they pull off this Arcam deal at 300SEK it will be quite the deal... They also just managed to essentially buy Baker Hughes without actually paying for them... brilliant... As a GE shareowner I am happy to see them get these good deals..
But as a previous Arcam shareowners was very disappointed in this deal... I am out now having lost a buck on the 4k shares I bot after selling out the first time... it was a bet that a better offer would be forthcoming and as all bets go you put your money down and take your chances.. this one didn't work out so well...
All I can do now is hope the GE bid fails and I get a chance to buy back in at 20... but I have a feeling they will get to their 75% number this time...
Best of luck to all who continue to hold..
Cheers
TDAT can't trade in Sweden...
I just spoke with the TDAT people wishing to get my shares sold today closer to the 299 price offered in Sweden but TDAT doesn't have the ability to do so... I am stuck with AMAVF... I understand e-trade will and Charlie says Fidelity well too... so I guess I could open and account with one of them and transfer the shares then sell them but what a hassle... probably just sit on the 33 Ask and wait... with the FX today the SEK 299 is only USD $33.15 so may not even be able to get 33 on AMAVF... sucks..
Having slept on it...
I am selling out and hoping the GE bid fails...
As I see it this will now play out one of two ways:
If GE is successful than I think at least in the short term (next few years) they have ZERO incentive to grow the minority shareowners value, quite the contrary, they would likely load up Arcam with all kinds of corporate overheads... try to screw Elliot until it hurts... all the time picking off those who finally throw in the towel... obviously they will want to get to 90% but they don't have to be in any hurry to do so... and they certainly won't feel any obligations to grow the value for the remaining 25%... so at best I think the remaining shares will be in Zombie land and worst case drift significantly lower...
If the GE bid fails than its back to the low 20's and possibly the teens... 17 has good support... I would then load up and be a happy camper as sooner or later either GE or someone else will take another run at them... in fact this possibility may buoy the price for some time to come, perhaps long enough for Arcam to finally start climbing the end of the hockey stick...
I suppose there is an outside chance of a competing bid but I think anyone else thinking of buying the company is going to wait to see if the GE bid fails...
Good Luck To All in whatever you decide to do...
Cheers
Thanks Charlie, good to know...
I have not tried to trade on the Sweden exchange via TDAT but if you have had success with Fidelity than I suspect same would be true for TDAT but I will have to look into it if I hold thru the acceptance period as I do believe the ADR will cease to trade...
Cheers
Charlie, yep, that's how they work so...
So the question remains will the banks who essentially make the market and perfom: "depositary bank to manage all custody, currency and local taxes issues."... These banks are taking some risk in the arbitrage of the shares... for example if you had bought ADRs yesterday at 30 after Sweden had closed, someone would be taking a hit today... I expect they keep an inventory of shares about equal to the average after Sweden hours volumes to mitigate their exposure but I don't know that for sure...
So will they interested in making a market for a stock that is essentially not trading after GE buys say 75+% and Elliot holds 10%... I think there is a risk the ADRs go away under that scenario... but I am not an ADR expert...
Cheers
I think there is risk to the ADRs...
For those of us who own our shares via the ADR AMAVF I think there is risk that market might go away if there were very little float out there... if it stays I bet it will trade at a very significant discount to the Sweden exchange...
Depends on if GE stops at 51% or if they get north of 75%... could be a zombie stock in any case...
Cheers
Well, that was a pretty disappointing new offer...
They basically just kept their original offer in place in USD terms, just slightly higher... not impressed...
HOWEVER, I am also not sure one is going to do better and perhaps best for us little guys to get out of the room while the elephants dance... so sell on the open market when the price firms up a bit more, then if the bid fails be ready to buy back in...
I think the only hope of getting more than 300 would be for a new bidder to enter the room, if they didn't take the opportunity to pounce when the price fell last couple of days, I don't think they are going to do so now...
The problem for any new buyer would be they wouldn't want to piss GE off...
So I will be selling out if I can get north of 33 and take a little loss on the shares I purchased after selling out the first time... sad little bet..
Cheers
Its official, GE walks away from SLM...
Shot over the bow for Arcam ? GE is going to look pretty silly not being able to close the deal, especially if they also walk away from Arcam... They could still make another offer after letting shareowners stew on the loss for awhile... The threshold for taking SLM (70% i think) is significantly lower than for Arcam (90%)...
12:52 ET - GE has walked away from its bid to purchase SLM Solutions, a maker of 3D printers for metal manufacturing, saying its tender offer didn't meet the threshold to take control of the German firm. GE made a tender offer to shareholders of SLM and Sweden's Arcam (ARCM.SK) worth a combined $1.4B last month. The company is making a big push into 3D printing, led by its aviation business, which already purchases equipment from both companies and has used 3D printing to manufacture fuel nozzles for its jet engines. GE's CFO said last week the company had other options if the SLM deal fell through. (ted.mann@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
Hi Cleos, yes, I thought so too...
That the Author was putting words in GEs mouth... possibly it was said on the side but I get the feeling they would rather have Arcam than SLM if it came down to it... I think they find it highly distasteful to have to deal with Elliot now, kinda like paying off kidnappers, sets a bad precedent...
Still they may do a deal with the devil in order to get Arcam and leave Elliot with SLM just to burn him...
I am holding the 4k shares I bot after I sold everything... I am way under water at the moment and don't cherish riding them down to 15 which is where they will go in about 1/10th of a second after GE drops their bid...
I also think Mr.Rene probably has some risk if the deal goes south, Elliot et al might want someone new to run the ship rather than hear "you should have taken the GE deal" from the CEO every time his Q is weak...
One may wonder where Acram would be today if they had concentrated on implants but also on Tooling... making injection molds etc.. as was suggested in the article Charlie posted... Its a very big business that doesn't have any regulatory hurdles to jump thru... one may also wonder if Arcam's focus on Aerospace, at the apparent disregard for other industries and opportunities, has been driven by GE for a very long time now... The execs and BODs are going to be very unhappy campers if the Owners prevent this deal from going thru.. possibly to the point that they will need to be replaced in order to move forward...
We shall see but the longer this goes on the more damage will be done to their P&L...
Cheers
GE says it has alternative options....
GE's CFO said they had alternative options to purchasing SLM and Arcam and at least as far as SLM is concerned, won't increase the bid...
I quote:
"GE also has alternatives to purchasing Sweden's Arcam AB . GE bid has bid 285 crowns per share, or 5.86 billion crowns ($685 million) for Arcam."
http://www.foxbusiness.com/features/2016/10/21/ge-cfo-sees-alternatives-to-slm-3d-printing-purchase.html
So there you have it.. you have to decide if they are bluffing and call their hand by holding or fold by selling... if you simply tender and the deal falls apart you still lose... decision time...They aren't going to make this easy...
cheers
Who Said ? I for one...
We keep hearing about all the little new bits and pieces of work being done by Aerospace, Implants et al.., the article you site is a case in point... but where are the POs?
Arcam for the last 9 months (and I suspect for at least the next 3 mths) has been unable to sell more than 3 machines a month (2.6 actually).... 3 not 30.. not even 10 but less than 3... and the sales rate is LOWER than last year...and this is Worldwide across all industries and across all the players in all industries... Their total sales have only grown by 10% YOY and are still going to be under USD 100Mil again this year pathetic...peanuts...
And poor little DiSanto is still complaining (instead of doing something about it) about not being able to drum up enough business Worldwide just to offset the decline in their traditionally produced implants... which just leaves me speechless... DiSanto should be the tip of the spear, they should be experiencing growth before the manufacturing division does...they should be opening up new markets, showing the world how great EBM is and how new industries can use it... not sitting on their rear ends crying about why they can't just keep doing what they done for the past 10yrs...making implants the old fashion way..
Sorry, because I don't need to sell newspapers or articles in magazines I will tell you like it is... AM is moving at a Glacial pace... at least EBM is...
I really wonder it Mr. Rene hasn't been in bed with GE for a very long time now at the expense of really growing his business...
But hey, we always have next year (assuming GE doesn't take em out)
This is the dumbest thing T could do...
The track record of these communication companies buying up the food chain have not been good and this one will be very bad... 80 Bil, fueled by debt? Not good... best case T langishes in the mid 30's worst case it is the straw (or rather the tank) that breaks the camels back...
If they wanted the content it would have been better financially to have just licensed it...
Dumb, Dumb, Dumb...
I will probably never see daylight on my 39 buck shares now...
Mr.Twenton, are you sure about that?
It has been my understanding that arbitrators/accumulators are active in every take over, they are the ones buying on the day of the announcement usually for a few percent under the offer price and then they tender to the company making the offer... It is my understanding the company making the offer has no obligation to retroactively change the price of a Buy/Sell transaction... they only have an obligation to treat all the shares tendered in the same way, so if they raise the tender price after "A" tenders, than "A" still gets the benefit of the new higher price... not so if the company Buys from an accumulator or on the open market for that matter... they still have to report changes in ownership by every 5% but they don't have to go back and readjust those prices they paid...
At least that is/was my understanding... could be wrong and maybe it is different in Sweden....
Mr. Market is sure pricing in some much higher risk that GE will pull the offer now...
Cheers