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C’mon SnP. Get over 2800 so short fun can begin! I’m watching every inverse leveraged etf, especially uvxy.
Uvxy has a history of peaking then dropping 8-12 sessions until it takes off again. Tomorrow will be day 8 since the last peak. Waiting....
As sp500 gets further overbought, the more I look at CNN’s fear and greed index. A greed value over 80 is very compelling for a move down.
I closed out my UWT swing at 15.09 I was in pretty big and made good coin. Currently out of the market. Makes it easier to sleep over the holiday weekend.
I'm good thanks! Apparently today is not the day to buy uvxy. Like you I will revisit on Tues. My UWT swing trade hit target of 14.50. woot! i am holding cause I think it goes up more
SP500 looks ready for a pullback to 2640. I’m looking at uvxy and any of the inverse sector etfs.
Picked up more uwt premarket. I plan to swing this to +14.50
Sold uvxy this morn. Not the gain I was looking for. I took profits and ran.
Picked up uvxy as I see sp500 falling back to support at 2650ish this week.
Picked up more uwt on the drop this morning. I will load more if it goes lower.
WTI is bumping up against $55. I don’t think it’ll break that level in a meaningful way until there is firm confirmation of storage decline. I bought a bit of uwt today and will continue to add any dips. The overall trend is bullish, and even though I played a dwt trade a couple of days ago I like to go with the trend.
Yeah it might have some legs. I sold my dwt today after a tidy gain. Make sure your stops are set.
Revised wti opinion. I now think it goes below $50. I am waiting for uwt less than 11.25 to load again. I took small position at 12.36 and liquidated at 12.49 once realizing this dip will be bigger than I thought. JMO
My opinion is that wti is gonna bounce between 51.5 and 54.5 (perhaps as low as 50 and as high as 55). I will be buying the dips as I feel the overall trend is up. It doesn’t go over 55 until there is an extremely bullish storage report. Be patient. UWT below 12.75 is good. Buy a little and wait for lower. Below 12 is great. If it goes below 11.50 back up the truck. JMO
Im with you. Waiting for WTI 44s. Monday might provide a nice opportunity to pick up some super cheap uwt if the bears get a hold of the market - diving oil down on low volumes. Might even see some 43s. But what do i know.
oil is too good to be true. Please go to 45 before revisiting low 50s. I’m greedy! Gonna be a real short squeeze soon.
Shorting D looks tempting. Still long term forecast is now a coin toss between really cold and relatively mild. If F19 falls to 3.90 I may take a starter.
Waiting for the threat of end of December bitter cold to dominate the forecast. It may not materialize, but if it does it would send NG well over $5. Then it’s time to short ugaz. Until then I will trade elsewhere.
Roll starts on the 5th trading day of the month. I incorrectly said it was the 6th. With markets closed on weds that should push it back to Monday 10th
Doubtful. Here's a good article explaining current NG pricing:
[url][/url][tag]https://seekingalpha.com/article/4226028-natural-gas-buy-dip-markethttps://seekingalpha.com/article/4226028-natural-gas-buy-dip-market[/tag]
Also long range forecasts indicate there may be a shift to much colder weather at the very end of the month. Still too early to tell. Traders know this and are supportive of NG
I have cut my trading activity by more than half and I make more $ cause I put in stricter guidelines for initiating a trade. I usually swing 2-8 trading days and my 5 day trailing round trip trades are only in the 5-10 range. I don’t need the income to live on as I have other income and my active trading account is only 3% of my total portfolio. So there’s not a lot of pressure which helps take emotion out of trading. I still do stupid stuff -just not as often. My hope is that when retirement comes in a couple of years I can make enough cash that I can support my travel habit.
Anybody see this coming from Trump? Not me. I got rid of my uwt in anticipation of more range bound volatility heading into the OPEC meeting next weekend. Only bright spot is I picked up a bunch of dgaz at the end of the week since my weather sources say milder December starting the 10th. If weather holds this pattern, NG could go sub 4.
I guess the roll won’t start until Tues dec 11 with the markets being closed on weds dec 5 in honor of George Bush.
The only thing that will affect NG in the next 4-6 weeks is the weather forecast. I watch the weather closely and took a sizable position in dgaz at the end of last week because I believe eastern CONUS is going to be mild for a while starting mid December. Bulls really want +5 NG. NG kinda stabilized at a relatively high 4.5 to 4.65 area to give the bulls a launching pad to 5-6. There are a sizable number of long trades at this level, which means there couldt be a long squeeze if the 3 week weather forecast goes mild for the balance of December. Weather forecasts can change quickly, but for now it looks like our friend the polar vortex has decided to visit Europe and Asia this December.
Just saw that markets will be closed Weds to honor Pres Bush. The guy was a free trader. I think he would want the markets to be open in honor of him. Just me spouting off.
Just saw that markets will be closed Weds to honor Pres Bush. The guy was a free trader. I think he would want the markets to be open in honor of him. Just me spouting off.
I agree with you yb.
NG price is neutral but it is balancing precariously between:
1. low inventory coupled with fear of continuing cold weather
and
2. warming weather forecast
There are other factors, but those are the biggest. The weather forecast can turn in an instant. Should another arctic blast show up in the forecast NG would head well above $5. Should a significant stretch of mild weather be indicated, NG could sag well below $4. I've read that recently a lot of long positions have been taken in NG. If there is a long squeeze that could exacerbate NG's decline.
I have taken a sizable position in DGAZ avg 50.49. That shows what I think will happen.
Roll starts on the 6th trading day of the month, Dec 10th.
I’m with you d-ops. I am restricting my dgaz activity. NG should be stupid high for me to even look at it.
Boy! Powell surprised me. I was licking my chops over some $6 jnug...
WTI report wasn’t horrible. Hard to get wti much below 51 with almost certain production cuts by KSA.
Oil goes lower. JNUG goes lower. Short term bottom possible later today, more likely tomorrow or day after, then 15 - 20% bounce. That’s how I read it. Starter below 6.00
He shoulda kept Yellen
Nicely done. I passed on a 3K gain only to close out yesterday for a $600 gain. Greed. Dang! Also looking for oil to go lower. Lotsa support at $50 tho...
I think there’s an increasing chance of a cold winter. I was in the mild winter/record production/increased take away camp, BUT the weather pattern set up is increasingly favoring cold over the eastern us. Cold weather forecasts pretty much trump other factors. I will be playing the dips in NG, going long by shorting dgaz and hopefully getting a little tailwind from beta decay & backwardization into feb contract.
I wonder today’s post report sell off in NG could be traders closing winning long positions before the holiday weekend.
Double post sorry. Fat fingers and a tiny phone...
D-man, I thought you swore off chasing this dog
Avg in uwt at 16.10. Pretty good size position. Think im gonna keep it for a swing atleast into next week.
I have to disagree with you on NG. Technical analysis goes out the window during winter. I've observed its all about the 2-4 week weather forecast.
Anybody know a brokerage that regularly has UGAZ and DGAZ available to borrow?