Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Damn ! More than a year after my last post, I have to take note ASTI is still not dead ... how on earth is this possible ?! What still looks to be very much alive is the endless dilution. How many o/s do we have now ? Wait ... no, I don't think I even care quite frankly. I'd like ASTI to die. Now. ASTI : please die, for real, just die ! Thanks. Let's get over it once and for all. Die
Hey I'm back on the hub ! Just to check how ASTI was doing lately. I was not following ASTI for the past few months nor was I aware of the reverse 1:1000 split so I had almost a heart attack when I saw on google that the stock bumped to 0,18 USD somewhere in July. But this was very brief because my embedded protection mechanism regarding this stock immediately kicked in in the form of "this must be bad news for sure". A quick perk at my online trading account confirmed that this was even worse that I had initially feared, pissing me off once again for still being able to be negatively surprised by this f....g company. I've expressed many times my admiration on how ASTI was able to survive through these years/decades of accumulating debts (not even getting close of producing even a single clean quarter).
ASTI, when will you die ? Please die ! I want you to die ! Let's finish this. Let's face it, there's no way out of this infinite shithole you've plunged into. Every management comment is like spraying formaldehyde embalming fluid on top of accumulating layers of shareholders cadavers in a desperate and pointless attempt to preserve them from decomposing. Please stop this and let nature do its work so that in a few years there will be nothing left than beautiful nature for a new life cycle to begin. Thanks
FULL-YEAR REVENUES (historical - updated)
for 2012 ==> 1,2M
for 2013 ==> 1,3M
for 2014 ==> 5,3M
for 2015 ==> 6,5M
for 2016 ==> 1,7M
for 2017 ==> 0,67M !!
Incredibly this company is still alive. See you next year for fy2018 ..
ASTI a half-a-decade revenue statement :
FULL-YEAR REVENUES (historical)
for 2012 ==> 1,2M
for 2013 ==> 1,3M
for 2014 ==> 5,3M
for 2015 ==> 6,5M
for 2016 ==> 1,7M
How on earth this company still alive is mystery to me ...
"...We look forward to updating our shareholders as we make continued progress"
Only bagholders at this point. Try again
Contract is only 500K ... while it is certainly good news, it only represents 1/13th of 2015 Full year revenues (or only just 1/3rd of a typical first quarter for ASTI) just to put that in perspective. So that alone won't move the needle for ASTI. But this may pave the way for future orders while at the same time show that ASTI is still active. It is not clear yet why revenues in 2016 (first 3 quartes) were so miserable. I don't buy the hype yet. More contracts please.
CEO of Bye Aerospace (which makes the Silent Falcon) already confirmed that to me already more than a year ago. Silent Falcons are shipping worldwide for some time now. The question once again : where are the god damn revenues ? Someone here understands that the numbers produced by the company for the last quarters do not make any sense at all. I understand flat revenue. I don't understand 1/3rd of the revenues compared to previous years and what about the Milpak ? Listed on the GSA website for more than a year and still no announcements ? No deployment in the field by the military, even just for evaluation ? The product is way superior to the global solar offering (which was selling well) on the same website + it is entirely made in the US (which matters to the military). A few months back the Kickr 7FL and FL were announced, where are they ? They even earned gearjunkie award at outdoor retailer 2016. So you're damn right they need to BETTER communicate WITH SHAREHOLDERS
This is not the first time similar news hits the fan, back in early 2014, ATK Completed Validation of High-Power MegaFlex Solar Array for NASA’s Next Generation Solar Electric Propulsion (SEP) Powered Missions. Now interestingly, ASTI modules were evaluated here too because of their monolithic characteristics and high power-to-weight ratio. Of course this had to be done through the Vanguard Space technologies partnership (to add extreme environment thin film coatings and build the array design). All of this happened within the space solar array research program being conducted with NASA.
It makes not doubt that ASTI tech is interesting for solar electric propulsion but we're not there yet and we have not heard much since either. Revenues derived from these activities are still years away in my opinion.
For now, most of the miserable revenues that ASTI is able to produce is derived 90% from its Enerplex (retail) division.
Again, can someone tell me how it is possible that revenues of 2016 (Q1, Q2 and especially Q3) are MUCH lower compared to 2 years ago knowing that since then ASTI has improved on 1/ customer awareness and acceptance, 2/ much better product line, 3/ retail footprint more than doubled (it is more than that since last year alone it doubled). This is impossible, unless the company has severely scaled down production (but why then continue to expand the retail network national and international) or all of the production capacity is absorbed by some non-yet revenue generating activities (I doubt since they can't allow this to happen several quarters in a row, lost 20M already this year while revenues are only 1,3M) or they are in negociations for something big to happen (acquisition) ?
Honestly they need to make some light on what is happening and this is why I'm really happy to hear Victor Lee committing to this this year. I don't buy the "much to be excited in 2017" of course. But whatever is happenening to be communicated to shareholders. And it is very clear that *something IS BREWING* in this very moment. Not sure yet whether good or bad ...
Well, if you stick to what the company is claiming (an optimistic 200M market cap) then the max pps you could expect is 0,1 USD
Prepare for an acquisition announcement . The 2016 revenues only mean one thing : the company has stopped or has severely scaled down production. I don't care what the company says. When you have a better product line (+GSA contract), improved customer awareness, much larger retail footprint (+ deployment in Europe) than two years ago you just can't produce (much) worse revenue numbers three qaurters in a row, it just doesn't happen unless you have severly cut down production. Being kicked out of the Nasdaq did not help financing and access to capital has become a nightmare. Still the company continues to announce new products and new business opportunities. This only means one thing to me : an acquisition is under way. Likely the chinese but who knows. We shall find out in the coming weeks. Note : this is my own opinion which is only based on publicly available documentation.
Freefalling revenues (first 3 quarters of 2016 = 1,3M combined, missing 8,7M in Q4 to reach FY2016 target ...) not even getting close to results achieved in 2014 and 2015 and this is considering a much larger number of Enerplex retail location (1600 stores) and seemingly better product offering, GSA contract and military grade devices ? There's definitively something terribly wrong with this company. If you decide to stand by the company press releases, fine for me, I'll stick with the revenue numbers, numbers don't lie
Announced last August still not available for retail, revenues derived from it = 0 USD
Isn't that what companies usually do at CES ? Present new products ? This is not the point, selling them like hotdogs is and this is obviously not happening (1,3M combined revenues for the first three months of 2016 AND this is taking into account EnerPlex's penetration into the Verizon Wireless Authorized Retailer market; now
over 1,600 stores nationwide ...). Are you kidding me ?
ASTI A year-in-review (disclaimer : this is ugly) :
Serving this as a refresh : FULL-YEAR REVENUES (historical)
for 2012 ==> 1,2M
for 2013 ==> 1,3M
for 2014 ==> 5,3M
for 2015 ==> 6,5M
Right now (for the first 3 quarters of 2016) we're standing at 1,3M
And remember that FY2016 target was set at 10M ...
You may now continue with the pumping
Fastest growing company ? LOL !! This is again bullshit PR. It refers to a period long gone (2012-2015). Of course it was growing back then. Then in 2015 company miserably failed to reach its 10-12M revenue target, lagging at 6,5M instead. Now for 2016 they planned 10M in revenues (less than what was originally planned for 2015!!) and for the first 3 quarters we have 700K + 100K + 500K ==> 1,3M. How on earth will they will reach target with just Q4 remaining ? They need 8,7M (lmao). Even worse, how in the universe will they even reach last year's revenues (6,5M), they would need 5,2M and they never made more than 2,5M in a single quarter. AS FAR AS I SEE IT THIS PRESS RELEASE SHOULD HAVE LISTED ASTI AS THE COMPANY WITH FASTEST REVENUE DECLINE (2015-2016). THIS IS WHAT IS HAPPENING. NUMBERs DON'T LIE
Back after two months on the sidelines, I was just waiting for the company to release Q3. Damn that was ugly ... not even 500K. I've always believed Q3 would tell us the whole story. And here we are. This is the end. This company was supposed to grow sales double digits to survive and the opposite occurred over the past quarters demonstrating the company's inability to turnaround and operate in this consumer market segment. There's now zero chance of survival. I won't even argue with whom will still pretend the contrary because you need to be braindead not to see the obvious. Numbers don't lie. Bye bye ASTI. I was a strong supporter. On to something else now ...
Nothing that we didn't knew here Solartech. But even with 2,4M in revenues Q3 how do you expect ASTI to reach 10M this year ? They'll have to make > 6M+ revenues in Q4 and even so they would still be in the red anybody. This company has completely destroyed shareholder value. I wish you good luck with your investment. Personally I have always said that Q3 2016 was going to be *the* decisive quarter. Unless we get revenues well in excess of 4M, we're going nowhere. Suitcase is packed, raincoat is on, standing on the doorstep, keys in the hand, one more look back at ASTI on Nov 11th then moving on to something else leaving this company going through a debt restructuring process. Enough.
Yes, this company has selected to rob shareholders in order to survive. Down -99%, the funny thing is that I would have lost less if the company had announced bankruptcy (typically -80% or -90% on the same day). In a certain way though announcing 255K revenues in Q2 is the same as announcing bankruptcy to my ears. My bet that revenues would jump this year failed big time and that's ok. It is all about position sizing. Management in general never can't be trusted. So proper position sizing was a key factor. I hope nobody bet the family house on this one. Bye ASTI. You were a CGIS survivor but your turn has come to join the mist of casualties. Nice try though.
This is game over right here ... 255K revenues is not possible in the light of how management described operations lately. But this is the official number. Numbers don't lie. Company desperately needed fast increasing revenues. The contrary just happened. More than 10M in cash used for operations in the first half of 2016 for not even 1M in revenues. "Obviously a major malfunction" occurred in Q2. No matter what is was, this is the end. Time to move on to something else.
Do not look too much into today's movement, without any news there's just nothing to analyse. Fact is we're about 2-3 weeks away from a potential Q2 prelim (unaudited) announcement and if the company starts delivering this could be a huge one (record quarter). But of course so far company has not been able to deliver and the last 3 quarters have been nothing short than dissapointing. Management does NOT deserve to be trusted at this point. Do not bet the house on ASTI as even if they post a 3M+ record quarter, they will still post huge losses for the quarter. Once they start announcing 10M+ (not sure this will ever happen) then the story might be different. Bottom line : might see a pop IF company announces good prelim quarterly results (assuming they even do so) but it won't hold for long.
Funny, if I stop looking at the current pps for a moment, I realize I still believe in this company. Made no mistake, I'm down 97% and hence I consider this a total and painful loss. Shit happens but I'm not yet too convinced this company is completely out of the picture. There's something not adding up. I start to doubt the revenue numbers provided by the company which are 90+ Enerplex driven. Silent Falcon is shipping worldwide and is certainly not powered by Enerplex. The retail locations have more than doubled, yet sales of Enerplex products remained flat for the past 12 months ... with more exciting products out (I even own some such as kickr iv) ?! My question really is : where are the revenues ? With that in mind I would be really curious to hear about their Q2 2016. If logic plays out they will announce around 2,5M and state yet another "record" revenue when in reality they need 10M+ to break even. I certainly won't advise anyone to put any money in ASTID right now but there's definitively something happening behind the scenes here (more likely bad than good). Though I lost it all, I'm definitively very curious to find out what happens in the next 6 months.
Prelim Q2 numbers out on July 8th last year. If they have good numbers to produce this year, then they may choose to make a prelim announcement in less than a month ... but at this point they'd better announce 3M+ revenues for Q2. That type of revenues, though nowhere close to sufficient, might indicate pick up in sales. Anything less would be dissapointing.
I've made bad investments but this one beats them all. Usually being down more than 90% means only one thing : that the company has just filed for ch11 protection. No such thing here yet, but a company only posting about its expansion plans and successes achieving all sorts of different milestones. Something is definitively not right here. In any case numbers don't lie. Company is loosing millions of dollars each quarter and not growing revenues as fast as expected ... this cannot be good.
Slimger-pro Interesting, just noticed this campaign on indiegogo :
https://www.indiegogo.com/projects/slimger-pro-charges-magnetically--2#/
This immediately reminded me of the Enerplex Jumpr Stack product. In fact, colours aside, paying a closet look at it reveals it is exactly the same exact device :
http://investors.ascentsolar.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=787537
Is Ascent Solar trying it's luck via Indiegogo ?
Just a thought ... if ASTI had 1000+ retail locations in Q1 (and we know they have) from which they were able to generate 687,000 $ of product sales revenues. Then if we divide revenues by number of retail locations then once again by approx 60 (approx number of days the shops are open over a quarter) then we do get (this is all very approximate I admit) 11,5$ of revenues per day and per retail location ... ouch !!!
Pathetic Q1 results once again showing anemic growth ... but company continues to claim it is starting to turn around and is well positioned to start delivering in 2016. Yes ... well again, Q1 doesn't teflect this at all. Revenues of 0,7M versus net loss of 10M. You do the maths. How will company ever reach its 10M goal this year ? Which by the way if you remember ==> 10M was the goal set for 2015 already and the company failed to even get close to it ending at sub 7M FY2015. In Q2, the company will announce >2M revenues and claim 300% growth over Q1 (as they did last year) but remember they just stated that Q1 shouldn't be compared to Q4 because of seasonality factor but they WILL (you will see) compare Q2 to Q1 to announce stellar growth, to fool the last few investors left and then by Q3 announce bankruptcy. This is the most likely scenario. But I will stick around hoping that they will be able to unlock some new revenue streams but unfortunately it now does appear it is getting a little too late. Way too much dilution, way to much net loss compared to revenues, way too much talking compared to delivery ... good to luck to whomever sticks to this one because right now there is very very little hope left.
It doesn't matter ... it is not -15% or -30% that will change something at this point. Real news is what ultimately matters and I wouldn't expect anything useful out of Q1. So this will require a bit of patience but we shall find out very soon (max 6 months) whether or not ASTI has a slight chance of survival. So far it has only been talks talks and more talks but ASTI has yet to show that their "paradigm shift" is working out. It doesn't matter if ASTI reached 1700W/kg power to weight ratio. It doesn't matter if they work with Vanguard Space Technologies which has a partnership with ATK to develop large scale solar array to feed a solar electric propulsion system, it doesn't matter if Ascent Solar cells cover the wings of the Silent Falcon, it doesn't matter if ASTI tripled the number of Enerplex retail locations or if it secured a GSA contract IF ALL THIS DOESN'T TRANSLATE IN A SUDDEN AN DRAMATIC INCREASE IN REVENUES. Now is really the time ASTI needs to shut the f@#k up with its useless press releases and start to produce the number. Because otherwise in 6 months or even before IT WILL BE GAME OVER. Cash burn is unsustainable. Time is running out.
Obvious that 1st quarter e/r better than 4th quarter ? That's ignoring the previous two income statement (2014 and 2015) and the seasonality factor. Don't set wrong expectations on this board. Yes GSA might start bringing additional revenues but that far from "obvious" at this point in time
PLEASE CONSIDER THIS
For those hoping for a quick ASTI turnaround ... just look at their 2015 income statement. Total Operating Expenses were about 6M each quarter but they were further aggravated by negative gross profit (that is revenues minus cost of revenues ... which was a negative number each quarter) and then you have the picture.
Knowing that ASTI burns 6M each quarter through operating expenses (R&D, Selling General and Administrative and Other Expenses), it is only when ASTI will start to publish gross profit of around 6M each quarter that they might get a chance to finally deliver a clean quarter.
Considering that the best quarter so far in the company's history was 2,392M (set in Q4 2015) with a corresponding cost of revenue of 3,117M (resulting in negative gross profit of 0,725M) we're clearly not even close to profitability.
ASTI MUST DRAMATICALLY IMPROVE REVENUES (while limiting Operating expenses) VERY FAST ... otherwise bye bye ASTI. Suggestion : Don't bet the house on this one.
Disclosure : I own 200.000 shares of ASTI at 0,24 USD. I will hold onto them until I hear Q3 2016. By that time, if I don't see any dramatic improvement in revenues I will sell and take a (huge) loss.
Rolling the dices is indeed how you should see this. Let's see if GSA brought in some revenues yet. If not maybe we should look at their expanded enerplex retail network and silent falcon partnership. In any case Q1 revenues below 1$ would be nothing else than dissapointing. The more I think about it, the more I believe they will need 12M+ revenues this year to survive ...
How could they ever be ? Q1 is the weakest quarter of the year and this company continues to loose 20M+ annually for revenues not even standing at 7M ...
Anyone with a bit of memory will remember that this exact type of news never helped to sustain a rally in the past. This will only appeal to some day traders. Even if we're to see a rally, which I highly doubt, it won't last because it doesn't translate in any revenue figure. Last year for ex. the number of Enerplex retail locations more than doubled and Q4 2015 revenues were only marginally higher than those of Q4 2014 (and revenues were almost exclusively coming out of Enerplex sales) so ... It is only when the company will - for once - post suprisingly good results for a quarter that the shares will move higher (on a sustained basis, I'm not talking here about 50% or more rallies without news like we saw a couple of times last year and once this year). Foe this to happen, we need to see >1M revenues in Q1 2016 (3M in Q2 and 3M in Q3 then hopefully a winner by Q4 of 4M to bring a total of 11M beating revenue guidance by 10%) ...
Remember that 10M was actually what the company had originally forecasted as revenues for the full year 2015 ... 10-12M to be more precise ... and they eventually came short 1/3 of the lower end of their guidance ... now for 2016 they have set the same goal as for 2015. Not very good as it only means one thing : Enerplex (which make out 90% of the revenue mix) sales are lower than forecasted and are stalling as evidenced by Q4 2015 revenues only just slightly above Q4 2014 revenues. This even gets worse when taking into account the fact that in 2015 the Enerplex Retail locations more than DOUBLED ! So what this company is doing I have no idea but (given the cash burn rate) there will be no more ASTI (my opinion) by Q4 this year if we don't see a dramatic improvement in revenues. The type of improvement that would put the company in a position to finally deliver a clean quarter somewhere by 2017 ... on the paper it looks like the company is well positioned for a good 2016 but only the numbers will speak. Let's see what Q1 brings.
Anyone knows when Q1 numbers will be out ? Seems like last year it was around May 15th. The past two years ASTI was never able to get through the 1M revenue mark in Q1. With all the recent developments and the GSA contract playing out, I'm hoping to see something over 1M this year. Unfortunately, ASTI remains affected by seasonality and Q1 is always the "weaker" quarter of the year. But still, anything above 1M would be a good sign for this company as it would mean +40% increase with respect to Q1 2015. That may be enough to propell the shares above 0,1 USD at least temporarily. Now looking at what the company thinks it's fair value is (latest investor presentation) we're looking at 200M+. If we divide this by the 200M+ shares outstanding, we're now looking at 1$/share representing what the company thinks its fair value is. Certainly a long way from what the 3$ target that ignorant people continue to bring forward as a 1 year target ...
Everybody should know that this stock will only appreciate when substantial revenues will be announced. This is not happening anytime soon. Looking at Q3 for anything interesting. Until then ZzzzZzzz
This is the typical pop and drop we've been used to for the past few months. No real news. The only interesting info from ASTI was their expected 2016 guidance. When they did they announced a mere 10M ... Remember that for 2015 they original guidance was 10-12M ... nothing that could justify the pop. Only when this company will announce something big revenue-wise, longs will be rewarded. Until this happen I won't waste my time following this company anymore. I actually have an email alert that will let me know when a 40% pop occurs intraday. That's all there is to it for now. On a personal note, I'm not expecting anything before Q3 ...
So OTC it will be ... starting on the 25th ... damn it
Unless there's something huge about to happen (revenue-wise), I just don't see how ASTI could regain compliance (1$) even with another 180 days extension. Q1 is the weakest quarter of the year and Q2 won't really matter until we hear about Q3 (which where I expect to see the benefits of the 2016 strategy - or not ...). Maybe another R/S ? ... but they had a 10-1 already in 2014 ... This sub-0,1 USD price per share is just really unbelievable. PPS divided by 100 in just about 2 years (from 7 USD to 0,07 USD ...). This is total annihilation of shareholder value with more (dilution) to come. Frankly speaking, as much as I would hate that, ending on OTC would be more than deserved at this point. In fact, this is the only thing that would actually make sense. From this perspective, if ASTI is granted with an extension, I would see that as a really bullish sign because it would mean that they managed to convince Nasdaq that something really good is on its way. But I don't believe this is happening yet ...
How long have they been keeping this info private before disclosing it today to the public ? We know that ASTI has been partnering with Vanguard and that the resulting product has been tested in ATK's large solar array. They must have known this info for quite some time don't you think ? The timing of this press release is a little suspect. In itself its good news though as the only previous indication of the power-to-weight ratio provided by the company was sometime in 2012 : "For space applications, the PV's module-specific power is 500-1,100 watts per kilogram, depending on the array design" ... 1,700 W/Kg would therefore represent quite an improvement over this.
Are you only looking at the technical indicators or do you also have some knowledge about what the company is actually busy doing ? A SELL recommendation with a one-liner as explanation is pretty light don't you think ?