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Hello Flatlander:
I am back in SBS with more purchases at 7.15. For a long term hold this is a good spot to park. If the dollar gets stronger due to increase in interest rate SBS may suffer a bit more but otherwise good spot. I have always loved being in Pargue. In the past I have taken a train a few times from Linz, Austria to Prague and the train would cross two borders and get to Prague in few hours although the journey could have taken may be only 2 hr or so in today's time. This was when it was Czechoslovakia. Best to you.
Flatlander: Thanks for your response. I was away in Greece and Santorini for 10 days and just got back. What you are saying makes sense and I am going to buy more and larger position if the stock drops to around 6.25. I have some but I also think that long term it can be $30 in a few years. At the moment USD is holding up and due to political situation in Brazil the Real may weaken and that is when SBS can be bought cheaper but we will see. May be I will have to buy at a higher price or at the current price. I need to wait for another 15 days.
Best,
Listner
Flatlander: Thanks for your response. I still have 10K . Just not having 50K anymore. The dollar is getting stronger that is reflected in the price of oil going down (due to glut as well as other currencies are weaker than USD) and price of gold going down as well. When I look at Brazil and what is going on there I am concerned about political stability, Olympics and Zika virus. If anyone of these things will make it look like Brazil has more problems than it can handle, Real may weaken. I am still expecting SBS to be going to $8 but just not sure if this will happen in summer. If I have the opportunity to get in again with larger position at a cheaper price I will get in. Your suggestions and your thinking both are appreciated.
Best,
Listner
Flatlander: Your analysis makes sense. Regardless of the justification, in my opinion that SBS had a run up too fast from 3.50 considering macro economics and the market high we are at. I am concerned about the short term movements of the stock and therefore I have reduced my holding considerably. I will add more when and if it is around 5.50 or 6 again. With such consideration I reduced my holding before ex divi date and did not wait for divi to be paid. I may be early in reducing the holding but as they say a lost opportunity is better than lost money. I will keep you posted.
Best,
Listner
Flatlander: Hope you enjoyed skiing. Now that SBS has maintained a few days above 6.5, this makes the path to 8+ in the next few months or sooner. Additionally early April will get you divi just holding the stock. I was and I am convinced that SBS is way undervalued and was punished due to drought situation which seem to have passed.The announced earning results are a turnaround and will continue. In a one year time this stock may double. The best to you and all.
Flatlander:
EWZ and other Brazilian stocks are on the move. SBS is on the move and investors are realizing the value in this stock. If they stop the conservation bonus we will see further upward movement. If they will pay any divi in April we are a few weeks away from that announcement. With some resolution of the corruption scandal this stock will be 8 in a few months. Best to you as well.
Flatlander: Thanks for your post. You are and were right about the weakening USD scenario. Yes I am watching and if the USD weakens more we will have a gap opening and will continue to climb up. My expectation is that in two years time it will be over 12. Also the government will have to support this necessary service provided by SBS at the Olympics time. I will continue to hole my large position. Listner.
Flatlander:
Happy New Year. As you indicated before it may now go down and test high 3's. The fundamentals are improving but the stock price is not. Brazilian Real i the dumps and will take time to recover. And the same for me from this stock. GLTA.
Flatlander:
You must be out of this stock for now because if I remember your average was about 5. I have a long way to wait over 6.5 but we will get there. I am planning to hold it though for the next 2 to 3 years. SBS story is getting better bur the impact of downgrades for other Brazilian stocks in general and economy and scandals in particular will drag down all Brazil equity. What is your take. Thanks.
Flatlander:
The support now is at 5 once it reaches there and stay there for a bit longer. I will hold out for the next two years at a minimum. If you have covered calls written for strike 5, you may be taken out soon. I have much higher cost basis so no point writing covered calls for me. And I am holding a very large position. I also see that a lot of people are moving into Brazil stocks for long haul at this valuation. All the best and thanks always for responding to me.
Flatlander:
I was away but I see that this stock will take time to move up. It looks like it wants to go back to 3's but will hold in 4's. The potential to explode on the upside with 100% gain from here will be in 2016 and 2017. Until that time trade it as you like. I am staying away from trading this stock. I will hold my large position for the next few years. All the best.
Flatlander: I have concluded that this is a bad investment which I should have managed better after such drop and getting to nearly 10 year low. It did not hold at 3.88 or 3.85. Almost 50% drop from May 2015. I cannot take big loss at this time and will hold for 3 to 5 years. I hope you do well. wrong assumptions and hope about this company.All the best.
Flatlander. I have been traveling so did not see your response earlier. As I predicted the Feds left the rate at zero as anticipated and as witnessed with the rallies in last few days. Market insiders knew it and the noise around the rate hike was just a Charade.The cheap SBS shares have moved up to 4.39 so if there is another drop I may take additional position but at the moment I am staying put and not embarking on a trading strategy considering myself holding it for 3-5 years. Thanks
Flatlander: Thanks for the suggestion. I will muster up some will and cash to buy the cheap shares may be 25% of my position and use as a trading vehicle. I want to see first if it maintains at 3.85 or goes lower. Best to you. Rate increase may no happen in September but can happen in October or most likely i December. The market knows something and the S&P is going up and futures are strong.
Flatlander: I am thinking of adding more to further bring my average down but uncertain at this point. If another agency downgrades the ratings, funds will be forced to sell so I hope they do not for a while. Good luck to you and all longs.I will hold for 3 to 5 years. That's the plan.listner
Thanks. My average is 6.55 and not willing to further average down since the loss is over $100K. Will wait for few years. I was going to get out on May 15, 2015 when it was just over 6.55 but was not able to get it filled. Hope you are right about your analysis. until today I was not thinking much but now under 4 and close of 3.85 is very concerning. Good Luck to you as well. Poorlistner.
Hello Flatlander: Credit risk is mentioned by Mood'y and so it is down by 7%, a multi-year low and dropping. I want to be optimistic with my investment here but I am beginning to doubt this optimism now. Poorlistner.