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Yes, I read the negative article young Jimmy Brumley published in July. I did not follow his advice then to my substantial benefit , and I will not follow his advice now based on my own independent research.
Clincal trial progress/Nov. 7 Barcelona presentation: I agree with Ziggy and Josh. Everyone is pondering about this presentation, of course. However, let's face it folks. S. Macfarlane will be there. He will in all probability be the lead presenter. After all, he is running the trials. He said recently -- this summer -- about the Anavex trials that he has never in his life time seen anything like this in referring to the Anavex trial results he is conducting. This came straight from the "horse's mouth". It would be a sudden and stunning reversal indeed to, about 3 months later, plan to report that this clinical trial is a flop. Therefore, I ask again, primarily for the benefit of those recently attracted to this board:
What are the odds that the company presenters are planning to travel to the Barcelona conference to present evidence that the drug does not work?
Recently, this board came up with about 20 plus reasons to say that the odds are "not very likely", "zilch", etc. I have been compiling all of this information that I have also published on this board. Since then, even more compelling information has been posted by others. Let's be confident in the scientific data that this board has revealed that points to Anavex being on the right track despite what Big Pharma has produced so far -- drugs that the opening speaker at the AD Conference in DC this summer said "do not work" (with the one slight exception, Aricept, that seems to work several times better when administered with Anavex 2-73). Again, S. Macfarlane said: "I have never seen anything like it." S. Macfarlane has been there conducting the trials day in and day out. Attempts have been made by some occasionally opportunistically short sellers, without any foundation, to say that Macfarlane is a fraud. Those attempts have failed. WolfWayne and others have published exhaustive information that points out that Macfarlane is not a fraud. Therefore, until proven wrong on November 7, I am placing my bet that the November conference will again report positive results for the Anavex trial Macfarlane is conducting with a drug that appears to work better than all the AD drugs on the market "that do not work."
In my IB account, IB allowed me to set a sales price at $40 in my attempt to limit shares from being available for shorts.
Right, from here on, selling short is a tremendous risk and selling shares owned is a big opportunity lost risk!
Briefly, this is why I am long Anavex. I believe that The only way to make serious money is by carefully investing in innovation. You may make small returns day trading long or short. But if you want to make real money investing, you will have to do it by picking stocks for long term gains and by investing technology and biotechnology , and I would emphasize the latter. You will not make real money on these stocks by day trading. Even if you do make money day trading (and you would have to be darn lucky to do it consistently), you will spend most of your day taking risks of short term moves, anxiously watching the gyrations of your position, and lose more of the gain, if any, in paying commissions and tax.
Most people still don’t recognize the gigantic implications of this phenomenon - this innovation that is taking place. Major breakthroughs are going to be taking place in cancer, heart disease, Alzheimer’s, diabetes, multiple sclerosis and other diseases. Picking the right companies can produce impressive returns in a difficult overall market environment. There are literally hundreds of small companies working on significant products. Many of them will fail, but a few will change the world the way Google, Facebook, and Apple did. You should spend your time trying to understand what these companies, such as Anavex, are doing. The returns for picking the winners could be huge. The pace of innovation is quickening. I have spent the time to understand what Anavex is doing. I believe it may be a winner. That's why I am long, have been long for over a year, and why I added more Anavex stock today.
So far today, I have added 6,500 shares.
I'm long, happy, not selling and will continue to buy. Despite this pull back as expected, I am well in the green! Nothing has changed. The fundamentals look very promising to me.
You are absolutely correct. If Anavex 2-73 works, and a many on this board have done the hard work to believe it may (each person must do their own DD to decide for themselves), a once in a great while - extremely rare opportunity may be staring us in the face. For me, to realize this opportunity to its fullest, it is too risky to sell any of my shares at this very early stage.
Yes, this is key. The diseases the Anavex compounds, if successful, may effectively treat are all protein related diseases that heretofore have not been effectively treated. This includes a wide category of diseases: AD, PD, AlS, Lewy Body Dementia, etc. (the entire range of neurological diseases). Drugs that successfully treat (or possibly cure) each category of neurological disease would independently be blockbuster drugs, meaning that a drug treating each category has a billion dollar plus market. This quote you include from Abraham Fisher merits repeating:
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The unmatched potency of AF710B on cognition and on amyloid and tau pathologies, combined with its beneficial effects on inflammation and mitochondrial dysfunctions, indicates extensive therapeutic advantages for AF710B in AD and other protein-aggregation related diseases vs. a plethora of experimental and licensed treatments.
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If Anavex 2-73 and related Anavex drugs work you cannot imagine the enormity. Anavex is truly aiming for something transformational. Will its drugs work? People on this board have come up with a number of reasons to believe that Anavex has something that works. We just do not know how effectively these new drugs work. Only time will tell. But, below is a rough list of what people on this board have compiled that lead many of us to believe that Anavex has something that works.
Does the drug work. Here is a list of some things we know that indicate that it it does:
1. The p300 and other metrics made public this summer were positive and dramatic.
2. Patient, caregiver and researcher testimonies have been positive indicating cognitive performance.
3. Patients requested extension of the dosing.
4. The FDA approved the extension of the dosing.
5. Presenters in Barcelona will on November 7 speak about cognitive performance.
What are the odds that the company presenters are planning to travel to the Barcelona conference to present evidence that the drug does not work?
6-passed MJFF due diligence,
7-new appointees to SAB (both Ad and Epilepsy),
8-Dr. V trying to increase his stake at all means..,
9-the pre-clinical epilepsy results,
10-the pre-clinical AD results (before 2A trial),
11.-the other sigma 1 confirmatory findings "Avanir/Otsuko, Concert pharma, MJFF previous work on sigma 1 and others ,allS is positive I am aware of.....including Anavex 371 on sigma-1
12 - What is also important to appreciate, effect was shown in 12 patients and 10 of 12 had an improvement of the signal. So, relatively robust. Not a skewed statistical effect.
13 - Physicians have told us that the safety profile is stronger than donepezil, the bestselling drug on the market.
14 - the initial title for the Nov 7 presentation highlighted cognitive improvement as seen in MMSE scores
15. a tiny american biotech flys in the Study Director who resides in Australia, Steven Mcfarlane, to the conference in Barcelona Spain. This is a doctor who has already said, based on the results earlier released, that he has never seen anything like this drug's apparent efficacy, in his (distinguished) career.
16. a tiny american biotech flys in the Study Director who resides in Australia, Steven Mcfarlane, to the conference in Barcelona Spain. This is a doctor who has already said, based on the results earlier released, that he has never seen anything like this drug's apparent efficacy, in his (distinguished) career
17. Clinical Cognitive Improvement observed in Mini Mental State Examination (MMSE) and other Cognitive Markers". We'll get some Part B data on Nov 7 as well. MMSE data is not collected in Part A, but at weeks 1, 12, 26, 38, and 52 of Part B. By Nov 7 (actually by Oct 14), at least 12 patients will be beyond the 12-week data collection interval. The first patient, at least, will be beyond the 26-week data collection interval.
18. FDA has approved 4 drugs for AD that only temporarily slow worsening of symptoms for 6-12 months in ~50% of patients
19. CEO Missling's constant underpromise and overdeliver approach
20. Missling has been setting up for a successful Phase 3 since March of this year:
http://www.anavex.com/?news=anavex-to-participate-in-phase-3-clinical-trials-panel-at-adpd-2015
We will know more very soon.
Thank you. Very nice article.
Don't believe all that you read. Some years ago, I purchased REGN at a price of $20. After careful research, I was convinced the company would eventually be successful. The stock floundered around for quite a while while I held it, but after several years, It went to $70 a share. At that point, I read articles about it being secerly overbought. I sold the stock at $70. Shortly after that, it went to over $400, then to over $500. I quit looking at the price, but I promised myself that going forward I would do my own independent research and reach my own conclusions. Additionally, I thought I would buy REGN back at a lower price after selling it at $70. I never got the chance to buy it lower. Based on my independent research, I'm holding this one for the long haul - win or lose. I'm certainly not going to be influnced by scare tactics.
Excellent post! I'm long too based on my research over the past 1 /2 years. I'm staying put for the long haul. As you know, only time will tell who is right. My DD will continue. If I lose, it's my personal responsibility.
AVXL is not a scam. We settled that issue on this board a while back. Do the research as others on this board have done. What's more, I refuse to believe that Dr. Missling, with AD in his family, has agreed to be part of a scam to fool the public with false claims about Anavex's drugs or that he, with 4 million shares, would do a reverse split with the intention of destroying share value. I prefer to believe that Dr. Missling is a decent, intelligent and sincere human being that deserves to become a wealthy individual by development of beneficial drugs. Heretofore, Dr. Missling has not been a person of great wealth. I do not know of any evidence to indicate he is a fraud or that he has a wish to destroy share value, which a few negative posters would like for others to believe simply by making allegations that have no foundation so that they may make a little money shorting the stock on a daily basis. A very risky and dangerous endeavor, but if anyone believes otherwise please proceed. There is no need to brag.
Lastly, there is nothing (other than a self-serving declaration by a potential short seller) to conclude or declare that institutions will all short this stock with the reverse split and up-listing. On the contrary, there is reason for me to conclude that some institutions may buy the stock based on the science. Do the research. Start back by Googling US20140296211 A1 and then bring the information / developments forward. Do your own research. Draw your own conclusions. Do not rely on what I or any other poster on this board says. Investing is and should be hard work. Even after doing due dilegence, anyone (short or long) may fail. I prefer being long.
You might calm down and take the time to read Anavex news from earlier this morning: "Anavex Life Sciences Corp. (OTCQX: AVXL) today announced the presentation of full PART A data and preliminary PART B data from the ongoing Phase 2a clinical trial of ANAVEX 2-73 at the upcoming Clinical Trials on Alzheimer’s Disease (CTAD) conference in Barcelona, Spain from November 5-7, 2015. "
Now 7.90!
New daily high just then on IB chart. 7.70. Can't get quote, but the 5 min candle chart is mostly green. It is dangerous to be short!
Nov. 7. And Anavex will present full Part A and preliminary Part B data then.
The bulls are out this morning. At one point, I saw the price at 7.60+ on an IB five minute chart. Some selling came in, it dropped some to about 7.40, but buying came in and it moved up again to north of 7.50.
I am happy as well. I gain satisfaction about being a small part of a company that I firmly believe will advance the science, and cure some tragic diseases. I hope the best for this company, it's ultimate consumers (patients) and all of its shareholders that keep the faith.
Yes, I am "stuck" with my long position by choice. the fundamentals have not changed.
The reverse split here is to obtain an up listing for the first time. It is not a reverse split to maintain a listing, which would be negative.
More importantly, have the fundamentals of this company changed? No. Anavex's share price has risen recently because of the fundamentals. I know of nothing that has changed in that regard. I will stay put - long - based on the fundamentals.
The article is vicious, and it clearly has no substance. We all have known all along about the absence of earnings, for example, that has nothing to do with a biotech company like Anavex. Based on numerous substantive research by very intelligent people on this board, Anavex has a revolutionary drug product and the wherewith all to get there. That is what counts. Shorting this stock reminds me of when I was a kid and played with fire. I got burned.
The price action this morning is very good and very healthy. It is profit taking that will be done and out of the way. Plenty of bulls are still around.
Circa: Thank you.
What is the significance, if any, of 7 points at 12 weeks and 5.5 at 26 weeks? Does it indicate that Anavex Plus effectiveness wanes over time? In any event, 5.5 points seems to be significant, correct?
$1.90, naturally, attracted some selling, but the bulls are coming back. It's dangerous to be short!
This may be one of those rare occasions where you are wrong. And, if you are it could be costly. However, since you seem determined, so you should proceed. That is what is so great about this country. We all have the freedom to succeed or fail.
What does all of this mean? We know enough to conclude that Anavex has a drug that has some positive effect. This board has come up with at least 19 points of things we know as a basis for that conclusion. What we do not know is what all of this means. However, if Anavex's drugs have the ability to untangle and/or remove the sticky clumps called amyloids that jump from neuron to neuron killing cells or nerve endinngs these drugs potentially are candidates for a host of CNS diseases that result from the misfolded molecules or proteins that form amyloids. Furthermore, stimulation of receptors may have other significance other than the removal of amyloids. The question remains: What does all of this mean? We do not know what all of this means except that our drug works to some degree and that the AD drugs approved so far do not really work (except Aricept maybe to some small degree). This is what we on this board are trying to determine. We have reason to believe that our drug is significant. We do not know how significant. I think we should have a better idea just how significant very soon (by November 7).
Today's WSJ - Jon Palfreman's article: "A new Attack on Parkinson's Disease" mentions that: "Many researchers think that the bad actor in Parkinson's is a simple protein, called alpha-synuclein, gone rouge. The misfolded molecule forms sticky clumps called amyloids that jump from neuron to neuron killing cells. They in particular snuff out the nerve cells that make a crucial brain chemical, the neurotransmitter dopamine."
Mr. Palfreman has Parkinson's disease. He does not mention Anavex in this article. He does mention a product by NeuroPhage in Cambridge, Mass. He says this product is a simple virus- M13. He also mentions that this product holds hope to treat Alzheimer's and Huntington's disease.
Perhaps Mr. Palfreman is not aware of Anavex?
That's great. Thank you.
Does the drug work. Here is a list of some things we know that indicate that it it does:
1. The p300 and other metrics made public this summer were positive and dramatic.
2. Patient, caregiver and researcher testimonies have been positive indicating cognitive performance.
3. Patients requested extension of the dosing.
4. The FDA approved the extension of the dosing.
5. Presenters in Barcelona will on November 7 speak about cognitive performance.
What are the odds that the company presenters are planning to travel to the Barcelona conference to present evidence that the drug does not work?
1.48 initially attracted some sellers, but the bulls came back. The bulls are out and running today.
Very few willing sellers and a lot of willing buyers. As it should be due to the promise that Anavex's drugs exhibit - block buster potential across the board for drugs that are promising for the treatment, prevention and cure of many cruel and dreaded diseases. I for one am acutely interested in the Anavex platform of drugs for the aging population. I will be 74 soon. Aging is a disease in itself.
Yes, very good find. See also the events tab of the Alliance for Aging web page:
Upcoming Events
2015 Roundtable Discussion
City: Washington, DC
Date: September 29th, 2015
16th International Conference on Alzheimer's Drug Discovery
City: Jersey City, NJ
Date: October 5th, 2015
4th World Parkinson Congress
Date: September 20th, 2016
Thank you. I never quite understood the expressions about no buyers or no sellers, but what you say makes sense. Another way to express it, I suppose, is in terms of supply - demand or willing buyers and willing sellers. If there's not enough willing buyers at any given time to take the shares of the party or parties that desire to sell or that are forced to sell, prices will fall or vice versa. Hence, it is said there are no buyers or no sellers, which should not be taken literally. It should be though of in terms of supply demand.
Excellent. I think you are correct.
I believe that what George may be surmising (as LJ suggests) is that the AVXL study may have been designed by Anavex to begin as a randomized study and later all participants may have been switched to actually taking the drug, meaning some were on a placebo and later switched to taking the real thing. The FDA Guidelines would allow this, and Missling presumably fully understood that the FDA Guidelines allow that. Therefore, none of the participants may now be on a placebo. If some participants started out on a placebo, were later switched to the real drug, and they lag behind the others that were always administered the real drug, the FDA would be very impressed and may more quickly approve this drug. Also, if such a study ends successfully, it would be the first instance where this type of design succeeds.
If Missling designed the study as has been suggested, it may be considered a bold move and/or that Missling is absolutely confident the drug works.
Clay:
Thank you. I have been long AVXL for a while, since the price was $.20, and I have added gradually based on reading everything possible about revolutionary bioscience in general and AVXL in particular. AZ drugs in particular have a spot in my heart. I am 74, and I have witnessed the pain AZ has caused some of my friends and my last two neighbors. I know the latter is not a good reason to invest in AVXL, but I am forever interested in what the future may bring to treat or cure AZ and other dreaded diseases. I have, however, been careful not to invest more than I can afford to lose.
In addition to all of my reading, I also try to study the technicals, including your chart videos. I appreciate your contributions. Thank you again.
Very important point.
Most great investments begin in discomfort. The things most people feel good about – investments where the underlying premise is widely accepted are unlikely to be available at bargain prices. Rather, bargains are usually found among things that are controversial, that people are pessimistic about, and that have maybe have performed badly for a long while (look at the long term chart for AVXL - AVXL's stock performed badly for a long time). Buying AVXL stock has at times been uncomfortable. Like today, for example. It isn't comfortable owing AVXL stock on a day like today. It is NEVER easy to do things that entail discomfort.
Innovative ideas like this, AVXL's relatively newly forms of drugs, have to be lonely. By definition, non-consensus ideas that are popular and widely held or obvious are an oxymoron. Thus, such new ideas are oxymoron and uncomfortable. Non-conformists don’t enjoy the warmth that comes with being at the center of the herd. Unconventional ideas often appear imprudent because what AVXL is doing is something that NOT "what everyone does.” You will never make any serious money doing what everyone else does. Most of the other drug companies, big pharma, are doing something else -- something else that's not working.
This is really the bottom-line: whether you dare to be different. Do you dare to look wrong. Any new, innovative, revolutionary idea has to go through the stage of looking wrong because you are doing something that no one else is doing.
As an investor, don't worry about the herd thinks or is doing. Do diversify your investments (don't invest money here that you cannot afford to lose). However, do not believe that you should never buy so much of something that if it doesn’t work, you will look bad. If you worry about temporarily looking bad you must understand that it will keep you from buying enough of something that works for it to make much of a difference for the better.