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GILD: 12 recent in-depth articles synthesized at http://marketstatsanalytics.com/gild_proscons3.html . The points are grouped under 10 key issues, which include: "Is GILD a value trap?"
GILD: "The 6% Price Gap April 29", article at http://marketstatsanalytics.com/gild_pricegapana.html , discusses what could be a significant longer-term outcome of a sequence of such price gaps. The problem is that sufficient buying force to create major price reversal seems slow in arriving, and the trading robots have the power to produce these gaps "for no good reason".
GILD - Gilead Sciences’ challenges and opportunities are analyzed in in-depth studies published since the company’s February 2nd earnings report. See a synthesis of the key points at http://www.marketstatsanalytics.com/gild_afterearnin.html .
GILD pros and cons updated using 16+ in-depth articles as of Jan 22 at http://marketstatsanalytics.com/graphics1.html . A new section focuses on three very recently published in-depth analyses, and it associates specific key points with particular writers, all organized under issue headings to help readers grasp the big picture quickly.
Robot trading and the January 15 mini-crash in SPY. See analysis at http://marketstatsanalytics.com/jan15crash_demys.html
GILD A synthesis of pros and cons based on over 15 analytical articles is now at http://marketstatsanalytics.com/graphics1.html
ESPR - how long to wait? You've raised the $64,000 question, in my opinion. Various people will pretend to have the answer, of course.
Even a price target, which I feel is a simpler problem, involves making a huge bet; because, as you know, the price moves around in response to a never-ending confrontation between buying and selling forces which arrive at random times and with random strengths. Exactly where these will move the price is anybody's guess, and that is why one of the dominant impressions you get as a trader is that very often prices seem to make no sense when you look at the related fundamentals. As a famous economist that we love to hate famously said: "the market can stay foolish for longer than we can stay solvent"
ESPR: the unresolvable timing issue. Thank you for your encouraging note and apologies for my late response. You make a good point that the waiting time to revenues is not news. And I would certainly agree that there is a very nice opportunity here if luck stays with the company through the third phase trial outcome.
The big unknowable unknown is where will the stock price be when it starts to take off in response to 'market' realization that sales of ETC 1002 are going ahead and this may turn out to be a blockbuster drug, despite the presence of alternatives in the marketplace.
If at the point of realization the price is trading at around 25 or 30, the best you could hope for is a doubling, in our new market environment. If it's trading around 50 then it would be reasonable to expect it would get at least to 80. So no matter how you look at it, from my viewpoint, the prospect looks very good for the company but exactly when to get on board is now the unresolvable timing issue.
If you've been to the horse races you know what I'm talking about -- so often the outcome of a race depends upon variables whose values become known only after the race has started. It is exactly this really of life that caused Long-Term Capital to fail and threaten the whole financial system in the process, despite having a staff rich with Nobel laureates and people with decades of market experience.
Cheers (or should I say as my mother would, "let us pray").
ESPR: shouldn't we delay buying? The fundamentals do look good, and the market has crashed the price into a nice range; but look at the storm clouds around us: 10 year government bond yields in the USA and Germany, as well as oil, are saying "economic recovery on hold if not cancelled". IBB, XBI, and some core healthcare stocks have all had their long-term uptrend lines decisively crossed in the last few weeks (yes, the biotech bubble has burst).
The stupid market has pushed GILD, which has super fundamentals, down to a ridiculous price already. I think if I took the time to do a money flow index across the sector I would see that money's going out of the sector big-time these days. So where will we find the buying strength to push up the stocks that deserve to be at higher prices? That's why I'm thinking: "wait for now".
ESPR: What caused the slump? Your question is always a tough one; because the price changes are outcomes of a tug-of-war between buying forces and selling forces, as you know, and multiple factors may enter as variables in the equation that generates the outcomes (price changes).
A cute way to look at your question is this: why did the selling forces win the battle so handily yesterday, and again today? Some of the negatives and uncertainties connected with the recent report on the FDA advisory committee meeting are cited below in this article:
http://news.investors.com/081815-767018-espr-stock-up-and-down-after-fda-update.htm?ven=yahoocp&src=aurlled&ven=yahoo
From a trader psychology perspective, I would note that the news conference that was just held has totally scoped market-moving news that might have come out of their September meeting. What do the big traders now have to get them excited about the stock until sometime in 2016? If there is very little, why not move your trading money elsewhere for now?
Secondly, in the best of all worlds the company seems to be about two years away from generating revenues from sales of ETC-1002. Even if I'm wrong by 50% (and is only one year away) that is still a lot of time with all the uncertainties facing us these days. So I can see the potential buying force sort of dissipating, and inpatient holders of the stock deciding that they now have all the news and so will move on for now.
Cheers!
ESPR -- there was a news leak yesterday morning near 1030AM. The CEO briefly cited a leak at the beginning of the CC yesterday, to explain why they were moving so fast with the communications. Their communications manager did a great job, as did the CEO, in responding to the leak, in my opinion.
I'm searching for a web site that has a calendar of upcoming FDA decisions. This seems to be quite important because so often a decision about one company causes sympathetic price movements across a set of stocks in the sector. Thanks in advance.
After Praluent (REGN) and ETC-1002 (ESPR), are there other rival drugs for investors' interest in the cholesterol-reduction drug market? (I am excluding a long list of statin drugs already approved by FDA, assuming that Praluent and ETC-1002 are doing things inside the body that these older anti-cholesterol drugs failed to do. Is that right?) Thanks in advance.
After Praluent (REGN) and ETC-1002 (ESPR), are there other rival drugs for investors' interest in the cholesterol-reduction drug market? (I am excluding a long list of statin drugs already approved by FDA. I am assuming that Praluent and ETC-1002 are doing thigs inside the body that these older anti-cholesterol drugs failed to do. Is that right?) Thanks in advance.
ESPR clinical trial outcome report -- when is the next time window within which a trial outcome might be reported? I am fishing to find out when we might have another "Big Event" for ESPR. Thanks in advance for your help.
Biotech bubbleness metric (rate of buyouts) -- Do you know of where we might look to get data (esp. a time series) on that rate? Thanks for nice idea.
RE. M&A has been the music -- since the longevity of this music is an issue, it would be helpful to have a list of the firms that will likely have good organic growth to keep reported earnings at decent levels as we go forward. I'm a Newbie to biotech. What hand-full of firms should I watch to keep my eyes focused on those that will likely still be looking good when the M&A music stops? Thanks.
re. biotech bubble -- what a great reply from you biomaven0! Thank you so much, esp. since I learned after writing my message that WSJ had a big article on the same topic yesterday. The perspective you offer is very helpful; because it tells me to 'hang in there' and just be careful to be suitably hedged when I go our on a limb.
A senior person in Gilead offered a related comment at their CC Tues. when asked his opinion on whether biotech is in a price bubble. After saying (in effect) that the answer requires some definitions and subsequent analysis, he opined that the level of effective innovation is so high these days that one could argue that the valuations we are seeing are not excessive.
A bubble burst in biotech stock prices -- why are we not now experiencing it? A few of your thoughts on this provocative question will be greatly appreciated, given your immense experience and knowledge re. this sector. Each evening I sit and compare the time tracks of prices across a set of sectors, and I noted that the biotech sector (IBB and several major stocks) failed to show the short-term reversal upward that took place yesterday in a number of other key sectors. (Yes, the quality of my sampling of biotech indicators and individual stocks is an issue.)
I was referring to IV, and I am happy to report that no poster there supports Gliead discussion of M&A prospects. My reading of a rather long thread there is that the posters generally see no need for Gilead to be 'anxious' to do M&A. If we are looking at an already great biotech company, in terms of its world-wide contributions, management has no need to be concerned about 'pushing' the stock price with exciting news on the M&A front.
GILD buyers struggling to make progress today. Yes, this could be all-day profit taking on the news; but is that enough of an explanation of why the stock cannot even breach last Thursday's levels after its Q2 results? Over in another excellent Board on GILD, there is a long exchange about big traders being disappointed to not see exciting acquisition plans from the Gilead leadership. So does it come down to this -- we ought to be buying stocks to chase "exciting stories"?
I don't see another place to go! You've read no doubt the learned analyses that conclude we are in for at least a decade of slow growth! And it may not be simply the 'developed' countries; because it now turns out, according my studies, that the US$ carry trade drove/financed the emerging market expansion we saw during the QE glory days.
Thus, one prominent scenario now is for a world-wide shift toward a more flat (almost steady state) growth curve, except of course for upheavals caused by 'geopolitical events'.
So the name of the game now may be to seek to protect capital from serious erosion, rather tan to seek substantial growth.
Thanks.
Here are the biotechs that have been 'slaughtered' in the past 5 trading days. Tuesday: ILMN, Friday:ESPR, BIIB, AMGN, ALXN, Monday(yesterday):MYL, ADXS. The one-day percentage drops in these stocks are of the order of 10%+ in almost all cases. Any thoughts as to "what's going on here"? Is the start of a massive bubble burst in biotech land?
Yesterday was a scary day in the markets, to me. I follow several sector leaders, and across the board (virtually) the morning started off with a significant gap down. Over the rest of the day almost none of them went back upwards and closed the gap. It's as if 'something snapped' yesterday.
I also wish to note that for nearly a month my set of sector leaders have been telling a very different story that the S&P 500 or VTI. I see serious breakdown of price patterns and trend violations. I feel this market is in trouble.
How will biotech escape? This is rhetorical question. I mean to suggest that long positions in biotech are now very vulnerable to a market-wide shift in psychology/sentiment.
I just arrived at your board following a strong recommendation that I study your work. Your thoughts here will be appreciated.