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We all know about the company's past "revenue". That was a very different company at a very different point in time. That company did not have the patent portfolio that will propel the current/future company into much more profitable waters than selling golf clubs or watches ever could have. You'll see!
They HAVE produced an amazing patent portfolio, with the help of the most innovative company on our planet. For a pre-revenue company, that's the best possible investment in their time and dollars. Patience is a virtue...
Everyone involved is frustrated, and I am generally a very pessimistic person and I do not let dreams cloud my judgement, especially where money is concerned. That said, I have a substantial investment in LQMT that i've built up over the last 5 years. All the while, I've winced as the share price has declined consistently over time.
The problem with the share price is that this is a perfect storm of:
1) Pre-revenue technology company
2) Pink sheet / micro-cap status
3) Significant fall from NASDAQ IPO grace
4) A history of very poor management
5) LONG lead time to get the technology to market
The above 5 reasons result in a complete disconnect between potential future value of the significant patent portfolio and the current market capitalization.
Spacecraft can be made stronger and safer. Missiles can be made more accurate. Cars can be made stronger, safer, and more durable. Medical devices can be made stronger, more flexible, and completely non-corrosive. Turbines can be made better. At some point in most of our lifetimes, the technology will scale to the point of cost benefit versus traditional machining techniques. If there were 10,000 Engel machines sitting in a factory somewhere, we’d be printing money. At some point… there will be!
We are invested in a stock that doesn't follow the rules of the stock market. CNBC anchors aren't even allowed to mention pink sheet stocks. They can't mention micro-caps. The reason is that this stock doesn't follow the rules of thumb that they ARE allowed to talk about all day long. This makes investors very uncomfortable, and traders CAN be fired for buying LQMT right NOW. However, all the stars are finally lining up, even in this pessimist’s eyes.
Here's a link that discusses other ways to value pre-revenue companies: How Do Investors Value Pre-Revenue Companies? but I don't know of a rulebook for our "perfect storm” stock. However... we stand to get VERY rich if patience in the patent portfolio pays off. I'm a long-term investor, and LQMT is the only non-ETF single company stock that I invest in. It IS my lottery ticket with FAR greater odds than Mega Millions or Powerball.
I love reading this board every day, particularly gorgol, Watts Watt (welcome back!), and CIMA7’s posts. Best of luck to all!
I'm not going to venture an arbitrary guesstimate... which is my whole point: $50 million seems quite arbitrary and not closely based on the reality of the value of the patents. Liquidmetal is – for all intents and purposes – a pre-revenue tech company with patents co-developed with Apple for an earth-changing technology that is FINALLY production-ready. The Intellectual Property IS the entire value of the company, which I believe far exceeds iateclube's estimate of $50 million AND the current market cap. If there's a calculation behind iateclube's number, then I'd love to see it. If there isn't, then how can a number be thrown out so confidently and nonchalantly?
I believe there's a a whole lot more than $50 million worth of licensing to be done in the Defense, Aerospace, Automotive, Medical Device, Energy, and many other non-CE industries. MANY products could be made much, much better along multiple criteria in each of those industries. Cost isn't the biggest factor in those industries either... safety is... and to the extent Liquidmetal technology helps make human lives safer, it will be used by LOTS of companies in a wide variety of industries.
Why do you say that? Are you factoring Defense, Aerospace, Automotive, Medical Device, Energy into your calculation of $50 million?!?
It only takes one non-Apple buyout offer and then Apple must respond with its contractual right of first refusal. I think we'll be seeing some merger talks within the next 20 years (intentionally conservative long-term timeframe which I'm adopting for ALL LQMT-related speculation).
That's like saying, "why would anyone want to make products with metal instead of wood?"
It's not a simple switch from a previous material to liquidmetal for superficial reasons. Liquidmetal will be used to create products that are currently IMPOSSIBLE to create any other way.
Your logic doesn't address what happens if SAMSUNG (or any other company in the aerospace, defense, medical device, automotive, etc. industries) moves to buy Liquidmetal. Apple gets right of first refusal (based on their ongoing contracts) and I imagine would rather buy Liquidmetal than allow competitors to buy patents co-owned by Liquidmetal and Apple.
I also wonder if employees are receiving shares as part of their compensation packages. It's possible that they are unable to buy shares on the open market for fear of insider trading charges (certainly they know about big undisclosed opportunities) and are relying on their stock options for future payoff.
I think people are realizing losses and then buying the same number of shares in other accounts. But it's anyone's guess.
Couldn't it be folks realizing a loss for tax purposes and lowering their basis?
Couldn't LQMT raise more funds to continue operations with debt financing instead of further dilution? Couldn't Apple provide those funds (with a long list of caveats that maintains full control, I'm sure), knowing that they are in full control? It wouldn't take much... maybe $10 - $15MM (a drop in the bucket for Apple) to keep LQMT afloat for another 12 months. That said, even if the stock DOES get further diluted, isn't the upside so high that it won't even matter? LQMT will go from penny stock to re-listing on the NASDAQ in the next 5 years. YES, this is MY OPINION. There is no evidence find-able that confirms my opinion. But, if you step back from all the details, doesn't it all line up? APPLE is a true believer in the technology. Isn't that enough?
Except the possibility of the new Apple TV remote which is rumored to be completely re-designed:
http://appleinsider.com/articles/15/05/04/apple-tv-remote-control-to-get-touch-pad-when-new-version-launches-in-june-report-says
The IP has such great potential outside of CE. If a company focused on aerospace or medical devices or automotive parts or sporting goods wants to buy LiquidMetal, yes, Apple will have first dibs, but they'll have to match higher bids.
I believe deeply in the technology, and if the company is still in existence all these years after its IPO and subsequent fall from NASDAQ grace, I don't see a scenario in which I'll lose my investment. Either through a buyout (certainly the patents are worth at least $1 billion, right? And that translates to about $2 per outstanding share), or a PPS blast-off following the launch of a high profile product containing the technology (be it an Apple product with zero revenue potential for LiquidMetal or another brand which might represent a large licensing revenue potential), I am optimistic. I think Apple is too ethical to let LiquidMetal die, and Apple is also watched too closely to treat its partners (especially those on American soil) poorly, and LQMT leadership is quite a bit more professional than GTAT's. I invest exclusively in diversified ETFs and LQMT. I don't invest in the stock of any other individual companies. The upside here is astronomical. Literally. And it's fun to watch, despite the vicious naysayers. They were nice once too, before all these years of watching the stock stagnate... but I really do feel times are about to change for the better. Everything is lining up for a blast-off. Or buy-out.
$0.18 with over 500,000 shares... fingers crossed for Thursday's news!!!