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Just based on the higher price of gold and the increased production, we are looking at revenues of around $70 million for Q3 compared to $59.6 million for Q2. I don't see any reason why mine operating expenses would increase..in fact I would expect it would decrease. So that puts an additional $10 million of cash into the business...that doesn't even count the $7 million or so in inventory that the company had on its Q2 report. Seems like a pretty good buy at 26 cents per share and a market cap of $85 million. Anybody disagree? The company's revenue in Q4 2016 will likely be nearly the amount of its current market cap. That's pretty amazing.
Of course the production numbers were a little disappointing. However BAA had an additional 4,000 oz of gold mined, $7 million in gold inventory, and much higher average gold prices (probably around $1300). I would expect that Q3 was great in terms of cash flow and likely profitable. Unless costs went through the roof we should be looking at $5 million - $10 million more in cash. Thoughts?
Gold will be +$50 by end of business tomorrow and BAA will see 40 cents. Give me 10:1 odds. Stars are aligning :)
This is a good thing. Scoop up some cheap shares before a meteoric rise that is inevitable. The FED knows they're out of bullets and is trying to calm the crowd before the real economic downturn. That's what the FED is supposed to do (try to calm the markets). Gold will quickly surpass $1300 soon and likely threaten $1400 by midsummer. Mark this post..
This is a good thing. Scoop up some cheap shares before a meteoric rise that is inevitable. The FED knows they're out of bullets and is trying to calm the crowd before the real economic downturn. That's what the FED is supposed to do (try to calm the markets). Gold will quickly surpass $1300 soon and likely threaten $1400 by midsummer. Mark this post..
Yes but if you feel gold will stay strong then it'll be easier to kick that can down the road. Maybe even sell off some property if gold keeps rising. Let another miner develop some of the lesser explored property.
Let me paint a bullish picture for you...
- 200k-220k oz gold produced w AISC around $800
- Gold Prices of $1300+ possible in the near future
- 3+ million oz gold in proven reserves
- annual revenues of $240 million to $285 million
- profitability of $100 million per year before debt service. We currently carry $180 million in debt so around $18 million would take care of debt service, which leaves profitability around $80 million
- I figure 5x earnings at a minimum on $80 million gives us a market cap of $400 million or a stock price of $1.25-$1.50
These are very forward looking arguments, but I do think this stock could be $1.25 or more by the time Q2 earnings come around. Especially if gold is in that $1350 range.
Commentary is always welcome
I actually think it'll be green tomorrow, believe it or not. The balance sheet is looking better. Healthy amounts of cash and gold. Debt continues to decline. With gold at $1200+ this stock has significant upside. $-.09 does not look pretty but that balance sheet is shaping up nicely. With average gold price around $1270 for Q2 it's going to be a nice quarter and Q3 and Q4 look really good.
Nice spike on this earnings report coming. Current market valuation is $4 billion. At these gold prices I think $5 billion is conservative...probably $7-$8 billion is a better estimate. I think by weeks end this stock breaks $5 / share again
Big day for BAA (and all gold miners) today. Looking for huge gains going forward!
Also if POG is +$10 or better on monday I think we break $.30 handily. This is my prediction...has little bearing on me regardless since I'm holding/accumulating until $1+
Perfect timing for a buyout (for the buyer)
Trading today was odd. I agree that something is going on in the background. I would take $1 per share on a buyout
Trading today was odd. I agree that something is going on in the background. I would take $1 per share on a buyout
Based on that news I think stock moves up healthily today. 44,000 is a good number, especially when taking into context expectations from 2015 call.
Based on that news I think stock moves up healthily today. 44,000 is a good number, especially when taking into context expectations from 2015 call.
Awesome!
I agree that the sky is the limit. We need those big positive earnings in the door, especially while POG is cooperating. Impairment is done so I'm expecting some quality earnings and big cash flow.
I do not think that this will spend any significant time under $.25 going forward. I believe the average price from April - June will be $.32 or so
I think we are in the $.25-$.35 range until late June. By July and August I think we're around $.50. By year end I would expect
$.75 or so
I'm in at 44k
Interesting article on MarketWatch. It really confirms what everyone on this board has been seeing for a couple years now (except for our pal Keyotee)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold-is-the-pile-of-poker-chips-in-the-next-global-crisis-2016-04-05?siteid=yhoof2
The article explains clearly why the US, China, Russia, and Germany are so interested in gold.
I think BAA has all upside from $.25 moving forward and the market will reflect that over the next 3 months and will pick up steam after that. I felt like $.25 was a possibility even when we were at $.31. I'm actually ok with seeing the price here because I know it's set a firm foundation for sustainable movement up. FYI nobody is getting my shares for less than $1.
I'm thinking 44k oz total. Although I'd love to way off...let's go 50k+!
That could be a good exit point. I think once we hit 47 cents it'll be difficult to unload because we will probably run towards $1 fairly quickly. I'd rather wait for the bigger payoff
Interesting article. I think the part about Twangiza is accurate. It sounds like his numbers may be quite accurate for H1 2016 when it comes to Namoya (slightly profitable). My guess is he is overstating costs because he is comparing to 2015, 2014, and 2013. Costs are surely different currently or at least I hope they're less.
Profitability will likely ramp up in H2 because production will be 50% greater according to last report. Obviously POG matters too...staying above $1200 is important and hitting $1300+ would be huge
By the way I've adjusted my short term price target to $.50 for this stock. Still 100% upside. By end of year I'd hope we would be nearing $1. I am bullish going forward...especially if BAA gets 45k+ oz. That's just gravy...
I felt like they could have elaborated more on why production numbers were going to be lower in H1 and why AISC ballooned up. For instance they could have said that were not quite at 100% capacity at Namoya...we're at 60% and we're going to continue to get better. Or we had this problem or that problem.
I agree that they did answer all questions, but it could have been handled better and in a more positive way.
I didn't like how that Q&A played out. They didn't handle the questions all that well. Need to be more transparent.
I read the 2015 report again and basically everything that was said in the earnings call was there. I really thought Q1 was going to be great, but after looking over average POG and reading more thoroughly I think we're looking at 40k-45k production at rate of $1200 or so. So $48 million to $54 million revenue. Hopefully that leaves us $10 million + in profit. Even with AISC substantially higher were still looking at a nice profit. $.03 per share or better.
Thank you Braised. Because I'm a little tired of looking thru income statements, PRs, and filings, do you have a clear understanding of all upcoming dividends, bond payments, interest payments due? I'm thinking of the substantial payments due in 2016. And I know there's a large bond payment that we need to deal w in 2017. Thanks for any help!
I think management did pretty well in 2015 when considering market conditions. 2016 simply has to be a huge year. Market conditions seem to be moderate or possibly even better than that. Management needs to run a tight ship and set aside as much profit as possible to solidify the balance sheet. That will open up possibilities for exploration, as well as some bargaining power when it's time for Re-Fi.
I'm really just ready to see a positive earnings report. I want this management team to prove that this project can make money instead of spending and writing down assets into oblivion. It's time to gain some respect from shareholders and everybody else who has an interest in this company.
Assuming 210,000 ounces and reading between the lines here's what I'm thinking...
Q1 40,000 oz
Q2 50,000 oz
Q3 60,000 oz
Q4 60,000 oz
The AISC drops significantly in H2 because the productivity increases. I think if Q1 hits 45,000 - 50,000 oz then that would be a big win. At 50,000 oz earnings should be $10 million+ or $.03+ don't you think?
...if management does not post a profit and positive cash flow for Q1 then I think we need to take a hard look at what's going on. They have all the equipment, time, cash, and POG. Simply need to get the job done. If it doesn't happen Q1 and Q2 then I think it's time to find some people who can see this project thru.
Ok I think it's time to estimate production and earnings for Q1. I'm exhausted from being so optimistic about profitability of this project so I'm thinking 40,000 oz and $8 million or about +.04/share. I think I'm still on the optimistic side of things but please give me your thoughts. Average realized POG must be around $1235...
Can anyone give me a clear explanation as to why AISC is projected considerably higher? I'll give you a couple reasons why it shouldn't...
1. CAT equipment is paid for
2. Oil cost is low
3. Operating in the Congo
4. Namoya is running at commercial capacity
IMO this management team needs to beat their production guidance for Q1 2016. Absolutely need to underpromise and over deliver. POG seems to be cooperating for the short term, so this is the opportunity to build a stronger balance sheet and bargaining power going forward. 2016 is the year that this company must succeed.
Anybody short this stock or any other reasonably large gold mine stock should really save their $ and move out of the way. They will lose their shirt over the next couple years..imo
Yeah placing that huge block at .295 was not the smartest thing. Got obliterated