Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
I am confused. You came to this board to warn us about a poster and that we might be getting fooled. Now you are warning us about the company? .
I just don't think a lot of people realize potentially what a big deal collaboration will be. If by chance the deal is "sweet" for NWBO then I think those fruits can be seen very quickly. I think it would take some pressure off complete phase 3 trial results as long as they continue to relay things are positive. My only frustration all along has been when? It is tough to wait. I am pretty tough but have been cracking a bit. I really don't have any doubt that it will succed in the end though. GLTU
What I have seen from the time I have been invested is unfortunately that the company seems to make it easy for whatever forces are out there to keep the stock price down. I understand more than anyone that things take time. The problem is they have been hinting at things coming soon for the over 2 and 1/2 years I have been invested in the stock. The end of phase 3, starting of phase 2, end of the investigation, EAMS, German reimbursement to name just a few. I think someone on the board used "carrots" which is a great analogy. How easy has it been to beat down the stock when you think about it? Pretty easy if you ask me, and I am a die hard believer in the science. I hate the shorting of small cap companies, the naked shorting even more. I am just saying the company has made it easy for them by the way they acted when they talked and now by being silent. At least that is how I see it. As much as I want to believe that they are going to announce at least the combination deal shortly and would be ecstatic. I equally would not be surprised if we didn't hear anything for months which has been their history. Looking at the 10Q and how little money is there, they are going to have to make pretty mammoth announcement in the next 4-6 weeks or there will be another dilution that is going to even be worse than previous. For a while I thought that the little dilution would not mean anything in the end. I think it is starting to mean something with so many shares being added in such small time intervals. I could not have asked for a more crazy crash course in investing than this, that's for sure. I try to think of it simply. If enough people want to buy the stock, the negative forces won't mean anything. The stock price will go up. The company has got to make people out there want to buy the stock. I just don't see them doing a great job of that right now. Negative forces or not against them.
Thx, Dan and Chris
The question I have for everyone is when will the FDA become satisfied? Assuming patients are doing well does the FDA have a time point or a event point to be satisfied? I mean we know over 12 months ago there were over 300 patients already with at least 1 injection. There are over 300 patients that have had at least 1 year of treatment. Doc logic has hinted that he believes multiple resolutions are lining up for September around conference time. Does the FDA say OK enough people have been on treatment for long enough, if the numbers look good you are approved? Then they around this time talk about other catalysts (e.g. collaboration, investigation, a functioning Swaston facility, and even EAMS and German reimbursement)?
I can't believe we wait around for events that could take many months to occur. A time driven rather that event driven result makes more sense to me at least ethically. The only thing I see that go's against that is the small financings that do not last long enough. That is if they know the decision date.
I posted this question before was just hoping some more experienced people could give their opinion. this is assuming Dan's theory is correct.
Hey Dan, I think what you say is what we all hope for. I think the theory fits. The question for everyone though is when will the FDA become satisfied? Assuming patients are doing well does the FDA have a time point or a event point to be satisfied? I mean we know over 12 months ago there were over 300 patients already with at least 1 injection. There are over 300 patients that have had at least 1 year of treatment. Doc logic has hinted that he believes multiple resolutions are lining up for September around conference time. Does the FDA say OK enough people have been on treatment for long enough, if the numbers look good you are approved? Then they around this time talk about collaboration, investigation, a functioning Swaston facility, and even EAMS and German reimbersment?
I can't believe we wait around for events that could take many months to occur. A time driven rather that event driven result makes more sense to me at least ethically. The only thing I see that go's against that is the small financings that do not last long enough. That is if they know the decision date.
Good idea, I just sent it to him. Let's see if he even reads my tweets.
Article out in Forbes. Author says Opdivo failure is a win for personalized medicine but does not mention DCVax which is the most obvious path to increased response rate to Opdivo IMHO. I have sent a few tweets to the author of the article. I suggest that as many people do the same. Let's see if he responds in some way. Here is the link to the article. If you click on the authors name it is pretty easy to contact him through different avenues.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/matthewherper/2016/08/06/bristol-myers-squibbs-defeat-is-a-victory-for-personalized-medicine/#18952f5879a6
Everbody, thanks for responding. Don't mean to bitch all the time, just one of those days. I said before that I think the trial failure with BMY is a really big deal for NWBO. I think it gives them much stronger footing for whatever position they are trying to take. I am confident things will end up good for NWBO. I was just venting because it might not be the case for me. We will see??
Silence by the company just makes this board go crazy. There are so many unanswered questions for the few answers we have that it is as easy to spin a negative response as it is to be positive about things. I am in such a hole that it would make most of the older investors on this board have a widow maker. Most certainly the moment I told you how many shares I have and how much I am in a hole. I have a lot of January 2017 calls that are way out of the money. The price points I hear some of you on this board are at and are frustrated is nothing compared to me(sounds like I am bragging, but I am actually kind of crying). When this thing was going up about 15 months ago I thought there is no way this is going back down. So I converted all of my shares at that time to leaps. I only bought shares as the price tanked. I am so disappointed in management right now I don't have the writing skills to express it. The thing that I won't do is be angry at them yet or name call. There is just too much I don't know. I really really believe in the science. I had my own hand in the early vaccines at UCLA. I know they work, without question. The vaccine I was involved in did not have a good enough response rate and the trials failed. I saw miraculous things with patients on occasion though, just unbelievable. Pat Hoon had just left my program before I was a fellow. I still remember a conversation my chairman and program director were having one of my first days there when we were waiting for tumor board to start. They were pissed off at Pat Hoon for leaving and selling the rights of Abraxane and becoming a multi millionaire. He actually donated money for a beautiful new oncology wing in the hospital I operated at. Not quite sure how he pulled that off keeping the rights to himself. It is pretty amazing to see what he has done since then.
I have spoken to neurosurgeons who have trained at UCLA and some other surgeons. No one has said that it has not worked, no one. I will say that a lot of surgeons have said it really seemed to be effective on certain subtypes. This is before I knew too much about the different subtypes including mesenchymal.
As Maverick has said, there is so much more to investing than just the science. It really should be as simple as the science. I am learning though that is not the case the hard way. I have spoken with several posters here privately and truly appreciate your help and encouragement when I have needed it. I am living a poor existence right now. I was also warned of putting myself into that position. I really do have mortgage money in this stock. If I didn't live in California that would not be the case, but here it is. I wake up with a knot in my stomach every morning waiting for news. Now we are really close to needing more money and not a word from the company. To think that this board will have no new information to debate until possibly September(except dilution) if that is even the case makes my stomach more sick. Where is this board gonna go by then? I really hope this company does something positive for us soon. No matter how you look at it, this wait is becoming ridiculous. So many people I know have put money into this stock that have asked for my advice. It has really become hard to keep telling them to be patient. I have spoken to Les, he was very kind. The thing is he really can't say anything to you that is not public. I actually ended up a little more frustrated because of it.
I am not even sure what the point of this post is. I am just sitting here while my girls are sewing clothes with my wife. I guess I just feel the anxiety building up and I needed to let out some of the negative energy I was feeling. I just really hope we hear something material in the next few weeks. These negative theories are just too much to read and there is only one way they are going to stop. That is for the company to prove them wrong. Thx for letting me vent:)
Thx Mav, would I love to be a flY on the wall to see what the details are on these deals. BTW, I never said thx for the PM.
Why not. And it is not impressive data. You add two things in combo that work a little, together they may work more. Together they have more side effects. Not difficult to understand why they try it. It is not a new technology. Just a different version of old technology. Kind of like how DCVax has improved over the years. I got to go back to work. Believe what you want. I write for anyone who cares about my opininion. If you don't, fine. I am not arrogant enough to say I am right. Just confident enough to have my own opinion. One of my mentors Armando Giuliano(founder of sentinel node biopsy for breast cancer)at UCLA would ask me questions in tumor board. If I quoted papers he would scold me and say "what do you think?". "Who says that paper is right?". "Most patients are still dying are they not?". He taught me how to make my own well informed decisions and be confident in them, but to allways keep your humility. He is a brillant doctor, great teacher, and friend.
Exactly, the Duke trial results were unimpressive in the biggest way to me. Completely misleading in my opininion. I cannot see how people are not seeing what you say in your posr.
It does suck for those patients involved. That being said I do not see how they could have run that trial with patients only expressing 5% PDL-1 in it. It goes totally against the logic when looking at mechanism of action of Opdivo. You are right that it is huge for NWBO. They have to be wanting to shout it from the rooftops. I wonder if BMY is starting to get wrestless to have the combination trials anounced. It is the only way for them to repair their "reutation" for lack of a better word. It is a way for them to regain credibility with untreated lung cancer, and increase their odds of getting a better response rate in a trial than MRK will get. It would bring instant attention to NWBO, bringing new buyers. The effect on market cap in my opinion should be huge if one truly understands the implication. This is all with the possibility that DCVax will work well as a monotherapy. There may be a lot of speculation in the potential market cap but it is extremely compelling speculation. I won't say how much I think in market cap that I think that speculation is worth because too many people on this board will say I am crazy. I think it is really high though. It may have to be tied to sone positive halt news though. With this information about the BMY trial I think it only has to be "good" news now. I used to think with this halt going on so long it would have to be some form of approval. I don't believe that is necessarily the case now( I still believe the halt is related to some type of approval/step though). If they can PR some combination of information on the two issues soon I think all the crazyness on the board would slow down in a matter of hours. Hopefully management will jump on this chance and that BMY is pushing it. Longs, I hope you realize just how huge the announcement by BMY possibly was today. HUGE,HUGE, HUGE, HUGE, HUGE,HUGE!!!!
Opdivo was already approved for lung cancer. This was as second line treatment after chemo. This failed study is for use as a first line treatment without chemo. They will have to find success with opdivo as a combo. Nothing out there hypothetically as synergistic as DCVax.
I eally hope NWBO got BMY to put down a lot of money upfront. Lets get this combo trial going.
I think what will happen is a mystery to say the least except that they will need some kind of funding. No one really knows what Woodford is feeling. I think if he feels he has the green light to buy on the open market again(clean investigation), he alone could cause a significant increase in the share price. Making financing more palatable. If the share price go's above 5 dollars then institutions may jump in as well. For all of the negative scenarios there are positive possibilities too. I am also prepared for the worst.
RK, I don't know if you have me on ignore. I can understand if so. For what it's worth to you I wanted to say something. Though I may not always agree with you, I respect that you are honest and intelligent. Good luck.
Chris, thanks for letting me ramble a bit. I know I have to trust myself, but I thank you and some of the other message board members who I have spoken to in private to discuss questions/concerns I have had. I am as confident in the science as I could be for what I know and experienced in real life. It will take more experience for me to understand the market. My God it is a dirty game. I have seen a lack of ethics in medicine, but the market is in a world of it's own. I have taken what I think is an educated risk, I alone will accept the consequence if I am wrong. If I am right, cancer care has a new platfom to chose from and my life will have changed forever. To those have taken your time to help me, it means a lot to me. I am greatful. Hopefully patients and longs days in the sun will be soon. Take care:)
Thx Maverick. I admit, once I am outside the science I need the opinion of those who I trust. GLTU
Any chance Roche and Bristol-Myers could be competing for alliance with NWBO? Is Bristol-Myers just using NWBO to validate the science until they come out with their own product? Who knows?
A little tidbit about BMY and DCVax. Not sure when it was written, but I think it is new.
http://rauzzetconfoundstut.spdns.org/1129-bristol-myers-stock-options.html
Will Bristol-Myers BMY Beat Q4 Earnings.
Glioblastoma (or glioblastoma multiforme) is the most aggressive type of cancer of the glial cells in the brain, affecting about 10,000 people a year in the U. Glioblastoma (GBM) is usually treated first with surgery, followed by chemotherapy and radiation. And when it does, the life expectancy is generally only three to six months. TRENTON—A former executive with global pharmaceuticals giant Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. As a result of these positions, Ramnarine was involved in evaluating potential acquisition targets for Bristol Meyers Squibb, including publicly traded companies, and was privy to inside company information concerning such transactions. The task force was established to wage an aggressive, coordinated, and proactive effort to investigate and prosecute financial crimes. Since its formation, the task force has made great strides in facilitating increased investigation and prosecution of financial crimes; enhancing coordination and cooperation among federal, state, and local authorities; addressing discrimination in the lending and financial markets; and conducting outreach to the public, victims, financial institutions and other organizations. Like Immuno Cellular Therapeutics, Northwest Biotherapeutics is working on a dendritic cell-based vaccine. Bristol's trial The purpose of Bristol's Phase 2 trial is to prove the safety, tolerability and efficacy of nivolumab as a single agent or in combination with Yervoy compared to Roche's Avastin in patients diagnosed with recurrent glioblastoma. The company's pipeline includes 3 compounds in development based around the DCVax platform. “Market Capitalization” is derived from the last sale price for the displayed class of listed securities and the total number of shares outstanding for both listed and unlisted securities (as applicable). The up/down ratio is calculated by dividing the value of uptick trades by the value of downtick trades. Nivolumab in combination with Yervoy, in an advanced melanoma study, shrank tumors significantly in about 41 percent of patients. Glioblastoma Globally, the incidence of glioblastoma is approximately 1 to 2 in 100,000 people annually. Generally, patients' tumors get worse within the first 6 months of initial therapy and the median overall survival of patients following diagnosis is 15 months. One medication, Roche's (OTCQX: RHHBY) Avastin, is approved to treat recurrent GBM but two recent studies have found that it does not prolong the lives of patients, raising questions about the role of the drug in treating that disease.
Avastin, is approved to treat recurrent GBM but two recent studies have found that it does not prolong the lives of patients, raising questions about the role of the drug in treating that disease.
Office visit for Glio
Surgery 1-2 weeks later
Up to a week in hospital
2-6 weeks for incision to heal
6 weeks of radiation and chemo
1-2 weeks to recover counts, strength from chemo
1st injection
Minimum of 3 months or so if things are quite smooth, easily 4 months. That does not happen a lot in my experience. There are always issues. In surgery we say "big surgery, big problems". Glio patients will be treated more urgently than my patients I agree. They are more acute than most of mine. And my patients have many more post op issues that lead to delay(I do a lot of big GI cases and thoracic, melanoma).
I am only reporting what I see. Adil Daud ran the Keytruda and vemurafinib trials at UCSF(I said Opdivo before, my mistake). Look up whatever you want. I am telling people who think I am credible what I saw. If you or anyone else think I am a liar, that's fine. I sent him stage 3 and 4 patients to be evaluated. I had to hear the patients in the office asking why it is taking so long and if I could speed up the process.
I'm going to the beach with my kids now. Take care.
I have had many patients who were on the opdivo trial and vemurafinib trials in the pasr. Both run by big pharma. My patients were treated at UCSF, an excellent institution. I can't think of one patient where it took less than 2-3 months just to get approved for the trial. From the time they were offerred treatment 4-6 months to first dose was the norm, not unsuall to wait longer. 8 months happened, but I admit less common. Chris, you are right, bur probably closer to the 6 month range. Avi, sorry I don't agree with you. I would say in those 2 trials I had 30-35 patients over the years they were running. What do I know about that kind of struff though?
Do you have any insight to when the investigation will be complete? I believe they will be cleared. I think that in the bigger pictue if they are cleared and the Nasdaq silliness is resolved any share price bounce would be more dramatic and sustained.
It is 10 shares at $1.01. The rest were for .45. There was no volume. I found it interesting thar Les does not have his name and number on the website anymore for investor relations. Not a confidence building move.
I appreciate your response and your input. You are right that I don't have any hatred. That is silly to me. I know what I know about the biology of cancer and made an adult decision. I said what I did because I believe it. At the same time I do not know what is going on behind closed doors so will not sink to insults. I do believe it could be game changing and make the dilution that is occurring peanuts. I sure would like to know soon though(not the definition of NWBO soon:) ). GLTU
I appreciate what you are saying. This is risky and will accept if I am wrong about the science. I do have a boatload of shares invested. It will hurt me financially pretty bad if am wrong but I can recover in time. I completely accept that. What is hard to accept is the day after day silence. I have not been convinced that they have a complete gag order. This is a public company, I own part of it. I think we are way overdue for an update. I am very frustrated but will not start bashing. My faith is still stronger than my frustration. Talking with Les does not seem to bring closure to anything, it just creates new questions and mystery. I really wish there was a way we could force them to talk. How could that hurt the company any more? I just don't believe it would. I am not forgeting about patients in my opinion, never. I have spent most of my adult life in a hospital putting strangers needs in front of my wife's, my children's, and my own needs. I may not be selfless but I am also not completely selfish. I just want answers NOW and I have no way to get them. That is beyond frustrating, it shouldn't be that much in this case.
Could someone explain what is happening when so many shares are changing hands and the share price does not change? What does that indicate if anything? I am assuming no one is dumping because the price is not falling. I assume there is no real buying pressure because the price is not rising. So what is being accomplished if anything? TIA
I agree with you, from what I know a deal is done . Glad to hear that there may be up front money and hope it is anounced pretty soon. Thx Chris
I guess I better keep my day job:)
Thx, I feel better!!!
Thx for the reply. Boy, if I was as negative as some of you posters are, I don't think I could get up in the morning:) I can't say you are wrong, but I just am not seeing what you are.
Board os quiet today. I hate that because it is like therapy for me while we wait. I enjoy reading posts on my phone between patients and surgery. I will ask a question just to get some conversation going. Who thinks we hear something in the next 2-3 weeks?
Thanks for your insight. Hopefully this will all start rolling out in the near term:)
Sad how financial sense and clinical sense don't seem to agree a lot of the time.
It would make clinical sense to me that they would work with Astrazenica for one of their combination trials. They have a PDL-1 inhibitor. Different that keytruda or opdivo which are PD-1 inhibitors. My guess would be the efficacy is different considering the availability of the targeted therapies in the circulation vs. the tumor microenvironment. A litlle tricky for the companies though as it could really help them or potentially hurt them for standard treatments in the future. Also makes sense since Woodford has such a big stake in Astrazenica.
Anyways, just throwing ideas out there:)
I know, it is.
She actually makes about a million a year on average. The 2 million is the total of many years of base salary. Most of her income is in bonuses. She doesn't make any more than most busy clinical neurosurgeons. She deseves everything she makes. Your link actually confirms what I am saying. I know the highest paid doctor in the UC system. I interviewed with him for a job l, so I was surprised when I read your post. He makes about 2 million a year. His program(liver program) makes massive amounts of money for the hospital.
Please correct me if I am wrong, but I believe NWBO had filed for a patent covering the vaccine/check point inhibitor combo. I think that is what the disclosures are referring to with Dr. Prins and Dr. Liau.