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First implanted patients was mid June
I do too but that's what market says today. Hope 7.5 is floor/springboard
I'd take .84/share. Given the analyst estimate of .56 and where the stock price is today, we have an 8.92 multiple. .84 eps puts us at a share price of 7.5
http://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2016/07/28/487080738/doctors-need-a-new-skill-set-for-this-opioid-abuse-treatment?sc=tw
"To date, over 1,800 healthcare practitioners have been certified — 27 have implanted dozens of patients, according to a representative for Braeburn Pharmaceuticals, Probuphine's maker."
The data is about 400+ doctors out of date but some approximate numbers
Is there any holding period on announcing news, such as partnerships, with the insider purchases?
Exactly
I'm not at all impressed by Titan mgmt, but that being said, I do think a little bit of patience is in order. FDA approval was barely six weeks ago. I'm ok with them not taking the first ROW deal that comes along (if that's some of the hold up), plus what good is a partnership announcement when the approval isn't even in place in other countries yet? besides of course the positive effect on the stock price. I don't think they're too concerned with SP, which is bothersome, but not necessarily the worst thing, assuming they're moving toward the longterm goals - pipeline drugs keep moving along and the partnerships are put in place. Plus, the longer they wait to setup a ROW partnership, the more they'll know with the probuphine sales numbers, which ultimately gives them more leverage. all imo
Thanks doc. Could create a nice additional uptick in sales starting in Q3 17
Doc D - do you know if there's any particular requirements on the 10 patients/yr a dr would need to prescribe with Probuphine in order to stay compliant? Can it be off label prescriptions for pain mgmt that are counted in the 10?
I could be wrong but I don't think big block trades reflect in the after hours numbers for institutional purchases
Any thoughts on royalty percentage? That's obviously from the revenue that Braeburn receives. Would the $4995 be split with the doctor and Braeburn somehow? And in this case the royalty percentage in the teens to low twenties would come off a number smaller than $4995.
5000 Drs x $4995 per application x 2 times per yr = $49,950,000.
A conservative 15 pct royalty 49.95 mil x .15 = $7,492,500. Avg pharma PE of 32 = $239,760,000.
That's one patient per dr. $23.9/20 mil outstanding = $12 pps. Seems a more logical floor than 6ish.
Even adding only a second patient per dr takes share price to 24.
Is that math right? This is crazy. Could get fun when numbers come out
Even a really conservative multiple of 7 comes out to $42/share. This only for domestic probuphine for opioid addiction and not factoring in the second milestone payment. have they ever disclosed the sales that need to be reached to earn second milestone payment?
What makes you say that? He tweeted like ten mins ago:
"$TTNP..$6.15 trading strong into the close. Quick burst over $6 has it trading like someone knows something". - Sheff
Knowing what we know now this quote made me think twice:
“I personally would want a Lipitor implant, because I can’t manage to take it three days in a row,” she joked.
Love this article. The most impactful stories and articles for me are the success stories of addicts overcoming their addition by using Probuphine. No matter what the FDA says, these are the people who should ultimately have the say in their treatment and whether or not it is an effective solution.
I got involved with Titan about 3 years ago, after reading the below article:
http://www.thepostgame.com/blog/men-action/201310/earl-campbell-fighting-painkiller-addiction-football-vicodin-oxycontin-spinal
These are what this is all about.
I have to believe, because of stories like this, that the FDA will ultimately do the right thing. Money and greed can't always win out. Not in America.
GLTA (investors and more importantly - those in need of treatment)
Wow this is incredible research info. Thanks Doc!!
The postponing of the decision was a tough way to start the weekend, BUT, as I follow most of the group's sentiment, why would they postpone if they weren't going to approve. The spotlight will still be on the opioid epidemic on May 27th, so three months won't get them out of the focus if they reject.
Although I do believe in politics and the big pharma conspiracies to an extent, I don't believe this is a scheme to get a few million more before Probuphine hits the market. In my opinion, it will ultimately be approved before May 27th, and most likely much earlier, as 3 months is the minimum amount of time to postpone (I like beginning of April for no good reason).
I think this was postponed for two possible reasons:
-To ultimately get more credit for the approval, as more time passes, more eyes will be on solutions to get pushed through. A quick approval without the FDA having to "work" on their end may not get them the same pats on the back if everything already had a bow on it and they gave the thumbs up
-There still is some issues up in the air: short term vs long term, low dose vs high dose, reinsertions of the implant.......don't have clear cut answers. A strategy does make sense (yes they should have been working on this for the last month and a half, but would you expect better?)
This is not a negative imo, it is a delay. Good luck.
Same here Chia. I also am neurotic about checking this one. And you're right, we should just check it every 6 months (or 18) to see how it's doing.........BUT, I just don't think that's possible. I feel like I'm drilling for oil...and I KNOW there's oil down there, but it's taking a little while to find it. But I KNOW IT'S THERE. People keep telling me to drill somewhere else but I don't care what they say.. It's there and WE ARE GOING TO FIND IT.
I'm a Texan and that's my best analogy for this. Good luck LONGS!
B
Great news today!
There was one thing that gave me just a bit of pause however:
A total of 23% of Probuphine treated subjects and 13.5% of subjects in the sublingual buprenorphine/naloxone group had an implant site adverse event, the majority of which were assessed by the clinical investigators as “mild” in severity.
And no harm done Truth! Definitely appreciate all the info I've received from you and the rest of the group! It's much appreciated.
Take Care,
B
It's just that your username was just created today and the first three posts appeared a tad too convenient.
Sunil called me back, basically said the same thing. everything is still on schedule and nothing changed since CC, therefore they wouldn't release a PR statement. and said looking to get trial results out in next couple weeks as soon as they receive them.
we all know that we're not dealing with two companies who have succeeded in public/investor relations. the delay should be news to nobody who has been long for a while, this is how they operate. this tells me nothing either way. if the trial news is good, they know they'll get the pps up and investors to follow when they eventually come out with the trial update. why would they rush things now? an update that the trial is over would be nice, but wouldn't really do much. superficially inflate the pps for a couple of days? been here long enough, not going to get cold feet now.. good luck to all
Thanks, just left Mr. Bhonsle a message at his desk phone.