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July 13th, Account Freeze Injunction Ruling . . . . .
On July 13th, the TX Court in Harris county will either grant he CRG injunction freezing all NAVB accounts, or it will deny the injunction.
Given the nature of injunctions, it seems highly unlikely that the court will, or even can legally, grant the injunction--since NAVB has never missed a payment and is currently current on payments, and has increasing revenues. However, they could still grant it.
If the deny it, accumulation should start immediately because that means CRG now has only one alternative, and that is to sue in court to try and prove that NAVB was or is in default of the loan agreement. Too bad for CRG because far before that court date, CRG will be paid in full.
If the court grants the injunction, it seems NAVB has only one alternative, which is CH 11 or to disregard and appeal the court ruling. That will also allow them to operate until they have paid off the loan completely w/o ANY interference from CRG. It would be a strange CH 11 since NAVB is fully liquid and never has missed any payments.
NAVB could also disregard the court injunction and file for appeal.
In any event, CRG will be paid off completely before any other court date is set, and therefore will have a hard time making any point about how NAVB defaulted under the loan contract--since the spirit of the contract is to receive payment and profit from the loan.
July 13th is the word.
CASH FLOW EVEN ANNOUNCED! Corporate Update Transcript Provided!
In the last update, M. Goldberg announced Cash Flow Even had ALREADY been achieved. They would announce it May 5th at the Q1 CC.
here is the transcript for the Business Update Monday night, April 18th:
http://www.scoutfin.com/document?id=5716f9d1c1db942d32ad8ec0
Macrophage IPO coming. RA trials starting for NAVB. CRG credit deal being dissolved and paid off with better financing.
INFLECTION POINT IS NOW!
1 year chart technical ALL GREEN!
My one year chart technicals are all green, except 13/48 EMA cross up. Waiting on the 13/48 EMA to cross over. We could be looking at a run like we saw last year starting in July.
Other than that:
*Williams % R: Bullish
RSI: Bullish
MoneyFlowIndex: Bullish
TTM Squeeze: Bullish
Ichumoku Cloud: Bullish
* Rmeber when using Willaims%r Williams recommends to get the most acurate reading:
1. Find the trend of the chart.
2. Use half that number for the %r
e.g., (using NAVB)
Parameters: One Year Chart by day
Current trend--DOWN over the last 5 months = 150 days
1/2 of 150 = 75.
BOUGHT another 37K @1.344 today average price.
I have a limit order for tomorrow for another 5K @ 1.25--hopefully catch a low open if it happens.
This stock is selling off on NO news, nothing bad, with all positive data coming in, e.g., revenues increasing and positive studies on LS. Read that as you want but I'm reading it as a buy signal!
@North40000: May 9th! in 10 day increments!
"If on the expiration date of the Offer any of the conditions to the Offer have not been satisfied or waived, we are required to extend the Offer for successive periods of up to 10 business days each to permit the satisfaction of the conditions, or for such longer period as we may agree with Ocata to permit the satisfaction of the conditions of the Offer. In addition, we have agreed to extend the Offer for any period or periods required by applicable law or applicable rules, regulations, interpretations or positions of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or its staff, provided that we shall not in any event be required to extend the Offer beyond the Outside Date (as defined in Section 13—“Merger Agreement”)."
page 4 https://reorgdocumentlibrary.broadridge.com/Client/Client?data=1115/E92789/67457L100/c
The "Outside Date" in in my first post on teh subject, same link above, I think page 34.
@elysse: They cannot walk away on Dec 17th!
What more do you need?
"If on the expiration date of the Offer any of the conditions to the Offer have not been satisfied or waived, we are required to extend the Offer for successive periods of up to 10 business days each to permit the satisfaction of the conditions, or for such longer period as we may agree with Ocata to permit the satisfaction of the conditions of the Offer. In addition, we have agreed to extend the Offer for any period or periods required by applicable law or applicable rules, regulations, interpretations or positions of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or its staff, provided that we shall not in any event be required to extend the Offer beyond the Outside Date (as defined in Section 13—“Merger Agreement”)."
page 4 https://reorgdocumentlibrary.broadridge.com/Client/Client?data=1115/E92789/67457L100/c
I don't know what you are reading, but they cannot walk away on Dec 17. What more do you want? It's in the tender contract.
@elysse1: Astellas cannot walk away on Dec 17th.
They cannot walk away if they do not get enough shares. They MUST extend the date. Please read the documents. They are legally bound to extend the date and or increase the price after Dec 17. They must do that until May 9th, at which time they can THEN walk away of they want.
"Our ability to extend the Offer is subject to the terms of the Merger Agreement and applicable law. If on the expiration date of the Offer any of the conditions to the Offer have not been satisfied or waived, we are required to extend the Offer for successive periods of up to 10 business days each to permit the satisfaction of the conditions, or for such longer period as we may agree with Ocata to permit the satisfaction of the conditions of the Offer. In addition, we have agreed to extend the Offer for any period or periods required by applicable law or applicable rules, regulations, interpretations or positions of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or its staff, provided that we shall not in any event be required to extend the Offer beyond the Outside Date (as defined in Section 13—“Merger Agreement”).
page 4 https://reorgdocumentlibrary.broadridge.com/Client/Client?data=1115/E92789/67457L100/c
You see, they CANNOT walk away simply because they don't have enough shares on Dec 17th. The "Outside Date" is: May 9, 2016 (Page 39 same link above).
Also:
I found the statement about when they would extend the offer or make a better offer if it comes to that:
"How will I be notified if the Offer is extended?"
"If we extend the Offer, we will inform Citibank, N.A., the Depositary for the Offer, and notify you by making a public announcement of the extension before 9:00 a.m., New York City time, on the business day after the day on which the Offer was scheduled to expire. See Section 1—“Terms of the Offer."
Page 4: https://reorgdocumentlibrary.broadridge.com/Client/Client?data=1115/E92789/67457L100/c
So the way I read that, this could go on until may 9th 2016 if they don't tender enough shares.
If volume start drying up, that's a sign that the shares are being tendered.
@Casperboo: Wrong.
Please read up on the comapny before posting incorrect data. The short interest was the same a few periods ago. It doesn't mean anything.
Also, see:
http://ir.navidea.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=68527&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=2120146
http://ir.navidea.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=68527&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=2121860
http://ir.navidea.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=68527&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=2090421
http://ir.navidea.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=68527&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=2085010
So yeah, Macrophage is a farce, and that's why they got government money and Fast Track status to study it.
I just accumulated 5K more at 1.409
The company is going to profit in 2016 on USA Lymphoseek sales alone, US only, and that's just the beginning--late 2016/2017 EU sales come on line too. This comapny has so much upside it is unreal.
@diddo: Maybe in about a month you mean.
My average price is 1.6 currently. It just ran up to 2.50, remember?
I may buy another 10K tomorrow depending on price action. That should lower my average price into the 1.56 area. If it continues to bleed off, which I doubt, I will continue accumulating. I'd love to have a 1.40 average, especially with 80K shares total after I finish my position.
I'm sorry you can't see how to trade this equity. Maybe you should try indexes?
Accumulated 5, 000 @ 1.46 Today
Price is going down on nothing, which is a great time to accumulate.
BIND got hit hard today at a loss of .33 cents, or 8%,ON NO NEWS.
Lymphoseek® Reduces Sentinel Lymph Node Biopsy Imaging Time, Facilitating Patient Throughput and Workflow Efficiencies
- Data from Time-Efficiency Study Presented at RSNA2015 -
Link: http://ir.navidea.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=68527&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=2120146
Lasers: End date is Dec 17th! and not May 16, 2016. They can extend it to 2016, but the first end date is midnight Dec 17!
Elysse: Why not just wait a while?
If there are shares being tendered, then volume will go down. That's because when tendered, the shares are taking out of the trading float
Consider also that there were literally millions of shares traded over 8.50 (approximately 4M or 10% of total shares):
http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/ocat/historical
Why would people buy shares above the tender price only to tender them and lose money?
At least they will show profit in 2016. I am on the verge of accumulation here.
HIGHER BIDS?
The only higher bid will come before the tender offer closes. If there are no offers before the tender offer closes, there aren't any. The only way the offer will increase is is Astellas raises it.
STEMDYNASTY: Wrong on Ocat about 99% of the time.
Go back and read his posts for the last 5 years--wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong, and wrong.
The guy is delusional.
OCAT: ABOVE 8.50 4 of 13 trading days.
Since the tender offer was announced, Ocata has closed over 8.50 4 out of 13 trading days.
QUOTE BS LOL, CAPTIAN KIRK
Why would any institution be buying? Same reason institutions bought over 50% of KaloBios after it reached .44 cents on the OTC and announced they were winding down operations and would liquidate. Now it's $34.00.
http://finance.yahoo.com/video/kalobios-soars-1-800-225300592.html
Up 1800%.
LOL @ Diddo
"If you bought at 2.40, you lost big time."
Oh call the waaaaaaaambulance, please.
I bought at 1.65 and I'm happy to stock up even more after it sells off this time. I'd love to have a 1.50 average or less.
Dew; Nope.
There was no plan to dilute as the CEO said "No dilution" and they have over 30 million they can still draw on their loan agreement, if necessary.
DewD: NAVB didn't exploit the TASE
NAVB didn't do any capital raise after or during their TASE announcement and listing. On the other hand, Mannkind and Biotime both did a capital raise and took advantage, or tried to. NAVB did not.
I don't know why they included NAVB in that list of three. Maybe they are part of the short interest and they know NAVB is going up?
Jonnyboy76: Park it in Navidea Bio-pharmaceuticals (NAVB) It's in a swing down right now. Bottom anytime. Check out a one year day chart and you'll see what I mean. Good spec call. Good upside.
IMPORTANT: DO NOT SELL!
Look, here's the deal. This is a Tender Offer for 8.5 per share. Astella is OFFERING to buy the company for 8.5 per share.
Since the BoD and the C levels agreed to it, it is called a FRIENDLY merger.
Here is the pertinent fact:
Astella needs 51% of shares to consummate the deal. That means when you are asked to sell your shares for 8.5, YOU DO NOT SELL, or it is OVER!
This forces Astella to offer more or the deal goes away. I would rather have the deal go away than sell for 8.5 per share.
Also, you do not sell BEFORE the deal is done. There could be another company that will offer more for the company than Astella.
davpar: You will automatically get 8.50 per share
If you just hold, and the deal goes through.
However, they need 515 to do that. Holding is smart money because the price could get bid up.
NOTHING IS GOING TO BE ANNOUNCED THIS CC!
This is just going to be a rehash of what we already know. I hope I am wrong, but that's how I see it going down.
TWO IMPORTANT QUESTIONS FOR THE MEETING!
(1) How likely is it that Ocata will dilute before years end?
(2) What hurdles remain, if any, to license the RPE cell line regarding donor documentation or any other hurdle preventing the cells used in the trail from being marketed?
Those are really the only two things with which I'm concerned.
Shelby: Looks like my prediction was spot on #3!
Shareprice: The Truth--it's WAY up Y/Y!
Since Rick took over the company one year ago, a one year chart shows definitively that the downward trend has decidedly reversed into an UPWARD TREND with higher highs and lower lows.
The yearly D chart does not lie!
See: https://onedrive.live.com/redir?resid=8BFBBCD5188722A4!10893&authkey=!AHsAasEw7L5x41I&v=3&ithint=photo%2cJPG
OCAT'S ROCKETING SHAREPRICE WILL BEGIN BETWEEN. . .
Sometime between when their first endpoint is definitively reported in Q1 2016, which is engraftment, and after they report interim efficacy data in Q2 2016.
Of course BOTH will have to be positive or it's over.
EARNINGS TOMORROW! My prediction:
(1) Earnings will be better than expected for LS: Stock will climb past 2.50 in the following days.
(2) Earnings worse than expected, but still increasing Q/Q and Y/Y: Sell off and shorts will usher in a bear raid. DO NOT PANIC! Time to buy after sell off support is reached.
(3) Earnings meet expectations: Stock is volatile but continues it's general upward trend that started a year ago, with higher highs and higher lows (http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/navb/stock-chart). Expect volume to pick up some, with weak accumulation commitment, although there will continue to be accumulation.
(4) Earnings lower than last Q and down from Y/Y comparison. This would cause a crash in price. I cannot see any reason for that happening giving sales increases every quarter since marketing started, but you never know.
I think 3 is more likely than 2, and 1 is unlikely. I believe 4 to be less likely than 1.
Dido: Short interest is down 6% this report.
Still, it's shorted 20%. Overall trend for the year is definitively UP. Check out a one year daily chart.
Would you short this stock today?
NAVB: QUICK TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: YEARLY UPTREND INTACT
Chart Link: https://onedrive.live.com/redir?resid=8BFBBCD5188722A4!10893&authkey=!AHsAasEw7L5x41I&v=3&ithint=photo%2cJPG
The daily Ichimuko cloud looks ok. The green cloud is still large. The price has almost cut through it though. If it stays inside w/o breaking through, that's a good sign. After the 52 week low, we saw a run up through a RED cloud. This last run was pure green.
When the price cuts all the way through the green cloud, that's a bad, very bad, sign.
Normal MACD is looking weak, but the 97/2 MACD, the one I use for down turns, is still above the zero line pretty significantly.
We have to hold the 1.90 support line, or it may test the trend line support of 1.60. Compare this run up to last on the cart I linked to, and you'll see what I mean.
In any event, even if it does find new support around the 1.60s area, the trend is still up for the year. We really can't fall below 1.62ish or it could get nasty.
Dido: Does its 2.06 close today speak volumes?
We don;t hear anything about 'next qrt.' You hear that. The company has guided for break even Q1 2016. They never said anything about specific future qrt sales.
Pull up a one year day chart, and tell me where it looks bad on higher lows and higher highs for the entire year.
Navidea Biopharmaceuticals Inc at 14th Annual BIO Investor Forum
Paul Wotton, CEO, said there is a Phase I Trial for IV use of LS planned Q1 2016. At least that is what I think I remember.
You should all listen to it.
Carful: No, Q3 numbers are not critical. Yes, the have to show improved sales revenue, but Q4 could make up the gap if there is one. In the latest presentation, the CEO said Q4 will show the true value of the new sales team will be realized.
FDA Approval was not a good reason to buy the stock, or at least not a better reason than fundamental analysis. The reason 3 is a good target is because it is realistic in the next year based on revenue and P/E multiples. I bought the stock at 1.645. It's relative.
Casp: They won't show 20%. I mean it would be as nice poster, but it is unnecessary.
Anyway, what do you mean "20% from what, last Qs sales, Y/Y, what does that mean? We should not concentrate on sequential Q/Q sales anymore, rather, market percentage displacement. The more they displace traditional diagnostics, the more revenuer they make, regardless of sequential Q/Q growth. At some point,Q/Q percentages will be zero because they will have saturated the market. But that does not mean they won't be hugely profitable.
As long as they keep increasing market share of their product, that will continue to increase revenue.
NAVB: In Binary Mode Q3-Q1 2016
If the comapny doesn't show good sales this last quarter, the stock will tank. IF it does show good sales, it may not matter in this market sell off, at least short term. It should at least stabilize price.
If they don't show break even for Q1 2016, the stock will tank and won't recover until they show a strong revenue income and a strong possible pipeline--proof of concept for the Manocept platform in targeted oncology. Could take years.
Market displacement by LS will stabilize the price, and continuing displacement will probably increase price around the $3 mark. Continuing current market LS sales in the EU could drive price even further after 2016.
After that, they will need to market in other areas where they are already approved, such as colo-rectal cancer dignostics, et al., or have a partner for their mano platform for clinical trials.
Still good upside but it depends on sales of LS short term, and a partner for the Manocept platform/expanding LS diagnostics long term.
That's their plan. Let's see if they can execute.
Strong Stock: It's up in a market selloff!
It went up in a market correct and is holding strong in a down market. Low volume on a bleed off AFTER a near vertical climb to a 52 week high is extremely bullish, as low volume shows weak selling pressure.
Relax. Accumulation is waiting for Q3 results and for the market as a whole to settle down. If Q3 is good, it's going to 3. If not, it could retrace. If Q1 really does set break even, it will go up.
Right now this is one of the only stocks in the entire market that is in an uptrend.
Go back to the 52 week low of .96 cents and look at the trend--wildly up now since that bottom. Look at a one year chart!
http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/navb/stock-chart
So easy to see your 5 year old could tell you which way it is trending.
UBS Warburg initiates coverage on Ocat $9 PT
This is the German arm of the worldwide bank UBS:
https://www.boerse-go.de/nachricht/ubs-startet-ocata-therapeutics-mit-buy,a4364385.html