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Oil pricing: Brent $103 +$.86
Libya produces 1.5M BOPD. 77% of it goes to Europe. After this weekend events in Libya we should see added pressure to Brent (IAE) and Bonny (MMT).
I am actually suprised that it is up only $.86 for Brent and $1.17 for Nymex on Monday morning in Asia. This week should see some wild swings for oil price.
Nigeria is going to look like a nice quiet place to produce.
MMT need for Public relation
It is my understanding that the company will start beating the drums after the reserves are published. The PR campaign will include a dog and pony show to the financial market with presentation available on the web site.
I do not know the timming but it should be during Q1. It would not make sense to do that until they can share the reserves numbers.
By the way we can all do our stockholders job by emailing some of the analystes we know. I started doing that.
GTLA
My comments about MMT.
The pump for the pipeline is working and by the way it was not MMT's pump. The pump had been there for quite some time but was not commissioned. ENI the Italian pipeline company screwed up.
The pipeline company is not a partner but a supplier. If the pipeline is closed then ENI makes up the difference from the allocation. MMT has to supply the missing oil for a certain period of time. They have to supply 320,000 barrels over the next 6 months or maybe longer. In a previous post I gave the revenue impact for Q1 and Q2
The ENI pipeline can take 10K BOPD right now and they will get allocation up to 20K when needed. MMT will need over 20K during Q4 when UMU8 comes on line.
MMT can bypass the ENI pipeline (the one that blows up quite a bit) if they build their own 17 KM pipeline. The cost would be around $20M to $30M. Not a lot when your cashflow is $8M a month going to $20M. They would not need a PP for that but just a bank loan. On top of that it is part of the JV so MMT would recover the cost from the 50% share of the partner.
Nigeria produces 2.5M BOPD and wants to move to 3.7M in the next 3-5 years. 20K to 30K BOPD can be handled by the AGIP terminal and pipeline. Shell just built a new pipeline capable of 600K BOPD for $1.1B as an example of large links.
UM1 and UMU5 are producing a lot more than expected. The plan called for a reduction of production for Q4 mitigated my W/O. In fact they increased production to over 2K BOPD per well so no need for W/O.
What it means is that there is a lot more oil in zone 12A 12B and 9 where UM1 and UMU5 are pumping from. In addition the last 6 zones tested are not included in the 2010 NI 51-101. The lower 4 zones that are not in the reserves total 71 ft of oil bearing sands. We should expect a new reserve assessment during Q1. It should be a multiple of the present reserves. Last June the NPV of the 3P reserves was $267M or 80c a share. Talk about undervalued!
One more thing, MMT is trying to get a large Shell asset outside of Umusadege. I do not know the atatus at this time.
What is interesting is how impatient we are with MMT moving from 3K to 16K in less than 9 months and we have no problems with IAE staying at 5K for more than 18M before they move to 10K. Go figure and by the way I am as guilty as everybody. The difference maybe that the IAE partners have no problem telling the world about IAE's plan.
Bottom line is that Mart Resources is a great play if you are to get in right now. Where else can you buy a company producing 2,800 net BOBD undervalued at .60c and set to produce another 10,000 BOPD net in the next 9 months.
I would buy it today and guess what I bought more.
I hope this helps.
PS. check the news very very soon
News out on MMT. only the UMU7 spud.
http://www.stockhouse.com/tools/?page=%2FfinancialTools%2Fsn%5Fnewsreleases%2Easp%3Fsymbol%3DV%2EMMT%26newsid%3D8046712
Flow rate of the total field should be out soon.
Coal plays
http://www.stockhouse.com/Columnists/2011/Feb/7/Australian-floods-cause-drought-in-the-coal-market
Anybody has a top 5 coal plays?
MMT numbers. I posted the revenue and cashflow on stockhouse but I am having trouble with the formating on IHUB so I give you the links.
Monthly revenue and cashflow for 10K, 16K and 22K BOPD
http://www.stockhouse.com/Bullboards/MessageDetail.aspx?p=0&m=29224304&l=0&r=0&s=MMT&t=LIST
Here are my Q1 and Q2 forecasts. I calculated each quarter with and without the repayment of 320,000 Barrels to ENI. Assumption for production days is 26 days per month. This should allow one blown pipe a month. If they do it more I will buy some shares of BOOM the explosive manufacturer. (it is their real ticker, no joke)
http://www.stockhouse.com/Bullboards/MessageDetail.aspx?p=0&m=29224378&l=0&r=0&s=MMT&t=LIST#
Cheers and good luck
MMT January revenue and cashflow
I was curious to know how much money MMT made In January so I made the calculation.
Basic planning assumptions:
Production
UMU1 2,000
UMU5 2,000
UMU6 2,700
Production days in January (low disruption)
26
Average price for Bonny oil
$98
Prorated cost recovery per Month:
$3,000,000 (1 well every 4 months at $9M plus infrastructure upgrades)
All taxes and royalties per sliding scales
SG&A per last presentation
Cashflow is before corporate taxes.
End Date 1/31/2011
Umusadege JV UMU-1 & UMU-5
Full Field Plus UMU-6
BOPD 6700
Sales Price US$/bbl $98
Oil Revenue US$mm $17,071,600
Royalty US$mm $1,570,587
OPEX US$mm $1,109,654
G&A US$mm $360,000
Abandonment US$mm $60,000
NDDC US$mm $170,000
Total Production Expense US$MM $3,270,241
Netback US$millions $13,801,359
Mart Share:
Cost Oil Recovered $3,000,000
Profit Oil US$mm $6,900,679
G&A US$mm $140,000
Mart cashflow For January $10,040,679
Mart Cashflow per year $120,488,153
Share price at 3X cashflow $1.08
Share price at 5X cashflow $1.80
Any comments or corrections to my calculation are most welcome.
Sorry you did not specify the year LOL
Correction on previous post.
There is still a chance to see a PR this week.
Stay tune.
MMT.V My understanding is that we will not get any news this week we will have to wait until next week.
Expect a webcast at some point in the near futur. With multiple lawyers on the Board it is not suprising that it takes forever to get a PR out.
They notified the pipeline company that they would need 10K. The pipeline company said "no problem" but in a typical Nigerian way it was not ready when the oil came. The pump is owned by the pipeline and needs to be commissioned. My understanding is that progress is being made.
Building their own link to the main pipeline is still on the table but requires a lot of approval as well as financing.
GTLA
MMT production update
The production is not co-mingled due to a pump issue. As soon as that is fixed the production will increase and 5,000 to 6,000 BOPD is possible.
Not sure when we get the reserve numbers but that will have a significan positive impact on the SP. In the mean time wait!
IAE Ithaca energy
Between MMT and IAE I am not having a good week. It started well with IAE but so much for $3.00. I did get the $2.60 that I was looking for, I guess I just got greedy.
Tomorrow is another day. We should get the production numbers for Q4 in the morning and that will help.
MMT Mart
No news on production. The reason for the delay is obvious.
Friday is the deadline for PSL17 so I had to get the price as low as possible. LOL
Seriously, the company could do a much better job communicating and mange the expectations. We will get the PR next week with all the right goodies in it. Mart is a test of our patience.
I am hanging on to $1.50 because it should get there just on fundamentals, after that we will see.
GLTA
IAE $2.91 in real time
I called for $3.00 this week, I really did not think it could be today but with Brent at $95 it is not that much of a surprise
Now, MMT get your act together and get the %$#@*^% PR out.
Cheers
IAE and MMT
Ithaca set to open higher today. We could see $3 this week.
Mart, no news today but we should get the actual co-mingled production flow this week. My guess 7,000 BOPD.
Cheers for the new MMT and IAE year
MMT events schedule
My best WAG for the schedule of events:
Next Tuesday or Wednesday PR on production. (TSX is closed on Monday)
Week of January 10th Pipeline strategy (We sure need it)
Week of January 17th new reserve numbers (should be a big bump for the SP)
It is going to be a busy January
Happy new year to all
VMC Meet and Greet
Check the VMC Meet and Greet Board for a discussion on a potential get together.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.aspx?board_id=8974
It would be nice to get together again this year.
Is anybody interested in a spring meeting?
We could do casual or more formal with our own 2 days conference on investment. In case of a conference we can form a small commitee to put it together but it would take some time to do that.
Potential places:
Vegas
Florida
NYC (with wallstreet tour and some potential financial speakers)
Chicago (commodity exchange speakers)
Any place where we could tag along with a financial trade show.
Let's start a discussion going
This is going to be a good year for all of us.
Cheers
2011 Hot list by "HUB"
HUB is a very good poster on III. He has a web site where he posts his hot list every year.
Here is the link to the top 10. Some interesting companies in that list:
http://thesharehub.com/
TRGL, Interesting read about the Paris Bassin and TRGL
http://seekingalpha.com/article/244178-toreador-resources-how-the-paris-basin-shale-oil-play-was-discovered?source=yahoo
Iae IACAF Ithaca
As a follow up to the new drill we should get a PR with the full 2011 plan this week.
I expect a small pop on the PR. $2.50 to $2.60 is possible.
Mart cashflow vs price calculation after UMU 6 production
http://www.stockhouse.com/bullboards/MessageDetail.aspx?p=0&m=28978578&l=0&r=0&s=MMT&t=LIST
From Investor village
1. XVII sand has been tested - expect news tomorrow.
2. Flow tests for all 4 sands should be complete by next week.
3. Latest pipeline bombing is not expected to have an impact on Mart.
4.Commingling is being considered for the lower sands - decision will bemade after flow tests are finished and pressure data is available.
5.While production was curtailed in Oct/Nov due to pipeline disruptions,Mart has received all cash flow as if the field was operational - wewill make up for the crude we owe with future production
Let's not forget that Q3 is a view at between 2 to 5 months back.
The pipeline is a concern but the company will address that by building their own 17 miles link to the main pipeline.
The next 2 weeks will tell us the potential with the flow rate from each zone.
After that a new reserve number and a potential new partnership.
GLTA
No delay. Results will be posted on time as far as I know.
MMT changes auditor to Deloitte & Touch
Nice move!
http://www.cdnx.com/data/lcdb/DOCP/NOV2010/1GVT101!.PDF
IAE IACAF 2011 plan
This is going to be a big deal. They have a board meeting coming up early December so expect to see the plan to be published around the week of the 13th or maybe even earlier.
I expect a bump when the plan is published.
Q3 results tonight or early morning
Don't expect a lot out of this one. End of week or next week is when things start to get interesting.
We may have an opportunity to buy more before the fireworks.
GTLA
Q3 results
We should get them next Monday or Tuesday next week, not before.
Nothing special about them.
Steady production
Better revenue/profit due to higher oil price
Better balance sheet
Better AR
Lower debt
That's only for the financial.
Management comments will be a different story. We could get an outlook for 2011 production and drilling. Also a schedule for reserves update.
As the situation is very fluid (interesting choice of words) the company will wait until the last minute until they write that update.
The big news remains the flow rate and that should be out this week (I hope).
GTLA
Next week is the week!
Then again it could be the following week. Everything looks good and the flow rate announcement should make quite a splash. They sure have a lot on their plate in order to select the right strategy. We may see a completly different plan than anticipated for UMU7 and UMU 8.
I really would like them to work on the new reserve assessment as soon as possible. There is the strong possibility that there is a lot of oil in that dome.
IAE IACAF new presentation available
http://ithacaenergy.com/uploads/IthacaCorporatePresentationNov2010.pdf
They sure have their act together
At least $5 in 1 year.
UTA made it above $7.00
One more effort please!! I have some options at $7.50 expiring Friday.
Help! I can't remember the "pre" code to post a table.
2 must read posts on stockhouse.com
Cashflow calculation for 2011
You may recognize the posting style of this poster
http://www.stockhouse.com/Bullboards/MessageDetail.aspx?p=0&m=28861936&l=0&r=0&s=MMT&t=LIST
Post from Crucible
http://www.stockhouse.com/Bullboards/MessageDetail.aspx?p=0&m=28861696&l=0&r=0&s=MMT&t=LIST
UTA decided to run after all.
After a great Q the stock was down 6% at the opening. It is now up 9%.
UMU6 flow rate expectations
Considering the thickness of the sands at the 13 to 17 zones we could get a much higher than expected flow rate. The well max capacity is around 11K BOPD. Due to the fact that you cannot reall load the well at 100% we may exceed the well capacity from each of the 5 zones. If anybody gets a calculator to measure the potential cashflow make sure you have enough digits in that calculator. Don't forget to divide by 2 for the partner's share.
It is becoming obvious that the 3 well pad will not be enough to handle it.
The next bottle neck will be processing equipment. Will be at 20K soon.
After that it is the pipeline link capacity. The company may need a new path to the AGIP or the Shell pipeline.
What a nice bunch of problems to have. They can all be solved with money and with oil at $85 they can write a lot of checks.
UTA 10K out. Rev+ 55% profit +55%
PE = 4
Average PE for like companies 30!!!!
Down a bit after hour but up 1.5% today. Just your typical day for a China stock.
http://biz.yahoo.com/e/101115/uta10-q.html
The quote on the MMT Board is now correct
IAE IACAF filing date for the Q
I was surprized by the filing date for Q3. Under the TSX Venture exchange a company has 60 days after the quarter to file. Larger exchanges give you 45 days.
If I recall right, IAE always file 1 or 2 days before the limit. This time they did it inside the 45 days. Is that a hint that they could move to a larger exchange? Could it be a test run?
I thought it was worth mentioning.
IAE Q3 2010 VS Q2 2010 results
Revenue
Q2: Revenue $34,132,776
Q3: Revenue $36,014,869
Profit
Q2: Net profit of US$10.5 million for the quarter ended June 30, 2010, resulting in net profit of US$15.9 million for the six months ended June 30 2010
Q3: Adjusted net profit of $13.5 million (loss of $1.1 million for quarter ended September 30, 2009). Reported Net Profit of $10.4 Million after adjusting for non-cash foreign exchange entry associated with equity raise
Cashflow
Q2: Positive cash flow from operating activities of US$38.3 million for the quarter ended June 30, 2010
Q3: Record Cashflow from Operations $26.4 million ($23.9 million inflow in quarter ended September, 2009)
The decrease in cashflow comes from “Changes in non-cash working capital relating to operating activities of $15,587,058” that positively impacted Q2
Production
Q2: Combined production from Jacky and Beatrice averaged 10,217 barrels of oil per day ("bopd") gross (4,914 bopd net to Ithaca)
Q3: Combined production during the third quarter averaged 10,125 barrels of oil per day ("bopd") gross (4,862 bopd net to Ithaca).
Cash
Q2: Cash balance as at June 30, 2010 of US$51.0 million and no drawn debt ($29.9 million as at 31 December 2009) (pre-equity raise)
Q3: Cash balance as at September 30, 2010 of $193.3 million ($29.9 million as at 31 December 2009)