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Spot on with your take. We have a commodity which the world desperately needs and should be brought to market. While there’s going to be dilution of shares we should also be in a position of strength to negotiate a great deal.
I would agree with market cap and valuation, but it is incorrect to say that a company share price directly correlates and follows it logically. The stock market is also driven largely by emotion (hence the swings and selloffs or buying frenzies). This emotion and FOMO (as DEMO man would say) do cause the price to swing dramatically up in certain instances where the fundamentals do not support it. Now it may be short lived if people believe that the value is not there long term, but to ignore market forces and to try and logically price a stock does not always work. Just look at Niocorp currrently, with the ore body and everything derisked it should be substantially more than it is right now.
I hope that after a reverse split you are correct and our $5 stock can go to $50 or $100, I am anxiously awaiting our outcome. Best case scenario is to have the stock close to $10 before the merger, and go from there.
Thanks to all who attended and the reports of all the information provided. I was unable to attend today, but looks like I may have to plan on attending a ground breaking ceremony.
Right on the money NCT. Been a loyal investor for years and your sentiments echo what many of us are thinking. I'm still hoping that there's a silver lining to this for the long term investors without having to purchase warrants. We'll have to wait and see!
True,
If the price goes up $1 when an investor has 200,000 shares versus 20,000 shares per a recent example, it will affect the ability to realize gains. That is why many are asking questions as to whether this deal is set in stone on the R/S deal. We need to hope that Demolition Man can get us up to $10 before the merger.
We're not whining. I've been invested 9 years in this stock and met many other investors at the first investor meeting which Niocorp held. I believe that expectations on the future of the company, including debt to equity financing was something that Mark and company had espoused from the beginning. We have been patiently waiting and cheering for Mark and the team to bring the company into production.
While I am pleased that it looks like we are heading down the home stretch towards this goal, the current package in my limited understanding is less of a home run and more like a broken bat infield single. There are many questions that remain unanswered (likely for SEC and non-disclosure reasons) which I hope will become more clear in the upcoming months. I do trust Mark and the team as well as many on this board who have been here for years. I think the point is that with a reverse split, yes my value is still the same, but my future earning potential is reduced because I have less shares, and any potential dividends as well.
This is a great story and I believe a great project, but don't want us to give the farm away just to bring us into production. Maybe this is our best option, like I said I believe that Mark is trying to get the best deal and into production ASAP. I look forward to meeting fellow investors once again at the ground breaking.
Thank you for sharing Walter. It is reassuring to hear from Jim on the project. I think the statement "it is not an accurate description of where we are and how this process proceeds" speaks volumes to the work that the team is doing and the progress they have made.
Thanks you Walterc, your insight and experience are appreciated on both boards.
My condolences GM
Grand Island, NE been here since spring of 2015 on a discussion with a friend in the industry. Have been able to attended first town hall and met the team as we as add to position over the years. Waiting patiently for news and financing as well as ground breaking ceremonies.
Appreciate all the posters and information about the company and it’s progress.
Thanks again to all the posters who attended the meeting and have shared their thoughts. Your information,insights and first hand accounts have provided us with a perspective that cannot be obtained by a video or audio. From all that has been discussed, this meeting seemed to have a feeling like the town hall from a couple years ago, only now we are so much further down the road with the boxes checked off. There’s a certain momentum which is building when you look at the entire body of work that the team is involved in.
As AO has stated, financing from the team’s perspective is more “when” and less “if”. I remain patient and optimistic regarding our investment even though we’re currently disappointed with what the stock price has done. Waiting patiently for the day when the big announcement will come, then we can meet in Elk Creek!
I too have tickets for the Berkshire meeting and hope to attend if baseball and softball tournaments cooperate. Thinking of asking Warren to change the date to later in the summer for next year. It’s a great event. If you ever get a chance to go, take the opportunity.
In thinking about how the FS review was signed off on by 13 experts, I think back to the doubt that some have stated regarding the Scandium price which is being used in the FS. The reviews would not have come back stating no fatal flaws if there was a belief that this number was not realistic. Is it possible that in the course of reviewing, they would ask for proof of the price being feasible other than Dr Mathesons analysis and opinion? Would they Be privy to ongoing discussions or negotiations that Mark has had with potential buyers that would display to them that these numbers are concrete and expected?
Just food for thought that all the pieces will now be in place for financing.
HK, I like you live in NE and am looking forward to the day it will add to the economy here.
That is your opinion/belief and we understand that. It is also your opinion that:
1. There is not and will not be a viable scandium market as expressed by Dr. Matheson and others... The market will be there once a consistent supply begins.
2. A fantasy of CBMM getting ready to flood the Niobium market to put other competitors out of business. As I recall, Mark was on their board, and would most certainly engaged them on what he was planning to do. Is it reasonable to believe that he would put millions of dollars of his own money up and go so far as to change his company's name from Quantum Rare Earths to Niocorp if this were not the case? I don't think he would poke them in the eye, daring them to take such action.
I respectfully disagree with your beliefs, and cannot understand why anyone would waste their valuable time arguing on an internet chatroom about something in which they do not care about or are invested in. Personally, I hope the major scandium players are successful to usher in a new age of superalloys to improve our lives and planet.
I am assuming our TELEMARKETER is Canadian and might have some kind of axe to grind with Mark for moving the headquarters. Looking at Largo, no credit is given to Mark for the turnaround, only pure luck at increasing Vandium prices.
Hmmm...The study of psychology has always fascinated me, not so much as what people do, but as to why they do it. So what would be the motivation for someone to post on a stock message board if they are not vested in that company?
Could be that they are attempting to warn the board members of the dangers and risks of the said stock, as to let them know that it would be best if they save their money (very honorable indeed). OR could it be that they might have an interest in a competitor who either produces or would like to come into production and by disparaging one, hope to boost their own company. MAYBE they have an axe to grind with the CEO, maybe they lost money on a past investment (Molycorp) and are bitter about it, or dislike the fact that the headquarters have moved from Canada to US. (This might explain the Largo hate).
Whatever it may be, most on this board look forward to good discussion on events which may affect the company and stock price, both positively and negatively, if there are facts to back it up. Vague warnings about global supply, or being saved by high commodity prices is really grasping at straws. Time will tell what will happen, and most of the group that posts and reads here believe that this project will come to fruition. That does not mean that there have not been doubts or questions along the way, but the belief that perseverance and the management team will be able to make this project happen one way or another. I personally am looking forward to 2018 being a very good year for Niocorp.
Thank you Landmark. I have attempted various ways to Google "junior mining companies" in any form of "hitting it big" and have had very little success on historical results. In one post you were able to provide examples of a number of companies the have become excellent investments. Thank you. Niocorp is beginning to look like one of those stories. With this weeks press releases, I am under the impression that Mark is VERY serious about financing and building this mine. Adding Lavon to the team solidifies this. If he does not pan to build, he has elevated the value significantly as it would be "turn key" foe the buyer.
AO, I was looking at my notes from the town hall meeting and that message is consistent with what was said in March. When asked the funding question, it was answered in the following way; approximately 5 million is required to finish the feasibility study, and another 5 million would be needed for expenses of including salary, and day to day operations. This 10 million was what was discussed after the first round of financing from Lind. So it seems as though the management continues to be in their target goals.
I noticed that it was at .60 US just a bit ago as well and wondered what was going on. By the time I returned, it was back to .77US. Don't know if there was a glitch or something else going on?
Good points Landmark.
I looked back at my notes from the town hall meeting on the 16th for a refresher. Mark did give insight on this point. If you look again at Big-Picture's post 16627 he has the summary, look at point #14. Mark was not so much worried about dilution, as compared to the "value" of the stock. He did say that there would be some dilution, but as the major shareholder, he doesn't want his value to decrease either.
Some of the notes I jotted down:
1) Overall (prior to reduction in CAPEX) they are looking at 600-650 million debt financing.
2) This leaves 300-400 million equity financing
3) The German Loan Guarantee is somewhere between 140-200 million
4) He mentioned Morgan Stanley, Credit Suisse and Northcot Capital in his presentation as possible players.
5)The ore grade increases at greater depths and it is "open", the total size of the reserve is unknown. It was assumed that they would drill more after production (and revenue) had begun.
Hopefully we are nearing the next stages.
Have a blessed Easter everyone!
Thanks for the insight , information and good article TO. Definitely interesting and exciting times coming over the next 9 months....Mark's baby should become reality. If I can only keep adding to my position til then. Superalloys will be the buzzword of 2017.
TODD, or others familiar with the metallurgy. I have a question as to the new breakthrough which was announced last week prior to the meeting. I am a novice to exactly what the steps are to processing raw material into our final finished product.
It appears that SGS has been able to assist Niocorp in changing the flowsheet to remove the iron, which will enable them to reduce costs. One question which I have is about the intellectual ownership of this new process. Is it Niocorp's or SGS's? Will it be an asset which would be wanted by other mining operations in the world? Is the deposit at Elk Creek unique from other deposits in the fact that each one has to have its own specialized steps to remove all excess to arrive at a final product?
Like I said, I have been researching this and I know that TODD did have quite a bit of face to face with the team. Just some questions I have been tossing around as it seems that Niocorp will be successful at reducing production costs, which could give them a competitive advantage as well as increased profits. Thanks for any responses.
Hey TODD,
Missed you at the Town Hall the other night, was hoping to meet with you. Since you were able to visit with much of the crew, were you able to ask about the press release which came out the night before regarding the new metallurgical process to reduce CAPEX and OPEX? Going back on my notes, I don't believe that any number were given, and no one really pressed them on this issue. It was good to meet the team in person and get first hand information. Thanks
Yes, this actually came up as a question posed to Mark of will the government try to delay or stop the project in order to "save or store" the critical elements at Elk Creek and "use up" the elements from around the globe. The response was that the government currently has to import all its niobium from other countries and a stable source would be good. Scott then said that the application process began 15 months ago with the Corps and is ongoing, but didn't say it is totally finalized yet. There are a number of permits they are pursuing and will complete. He referred us to the PEA2 for more detail. He didn't seem overly concerned with it other than to say that they are determining what to do with the water. They have a few options and are going to do what is best for the environment and the bottom line.
Yes, same here. There is so much potential it's incredible. That mine will get done and mark has all the pieces in place to bring it to fruition
Just left the barn. Informative meeting and good Q & A. There seemed to be many investors that want to know first hand the crew in charge of their investment. A few questions focused on environmental and logistical concerns but were answered completely. Confident and focused is how I would describe the team. They still have some work to finish, but they seem to have a handle on it. Was glad I went and got to meet others on the board b
Great News!! I hope that we can get him to expand on that topic tomorrow night at the Town Hall meeting. Maybe he will allude to a ballpark of how much this may improve the financials. Landmark, you were right on in reducing CAPEX, and we still have contingency as well.
I will be attending the town hall meeting as well, traveling in from Grand Island. Would like to meet up with Ihub investors, its a great group to learn from. On that note, I have some questions that I hope Mark will answer in a Q & A, are there any specific questions from investors that can't make it that they want us to ask? We could begin a list and try to come back with as much info as they will provide.
TO,
Wish I knew you were in Hastings today, I was working there too, would've bought lunch. Hope to meet up with some investors at the March town hall.
Overall a short term disappointment, but I was wanting to add more shares this spring anyway... will end up being a discount. Looking long term to see "Niocorp preparing to Launch."
Bronco,
I am assuming that this is open to anyone, not just folks from Elk Creek, correct? I am in Grand Island and am thinking of attending, I'd really like to meet the crew that I've put so much "stock" in literally. Its getting to be an exciting time for Niocorp.
One question I have is with Mark's background and history, is his expertise in making the deal so to say, or has he been involved in the construction of mines in the past. The reason I have tossed this around is that could give an indication on whether we would may get bought out prior to construction. I am in favor of him financing and building the mine if at all possible. One thing I know from conversations with Tony F., if anyone can bring this to fruition, he can.
Spoke to him a few months ago as well regarding the project. First class individual and a very good local connection for Niocorp. They have assembled a top notch team, and if anyone can move this project to completion, they can.
TO. I live about 2 hours west and became aware of Niocorp from an acquaintance who has met the management. He was excited about the company and its potential, as am I. I would like to visit the site, but didn't know if any of the team is there on a regular basis.
The major question which I see distinguishing investors and traders is the certainty of the mine being build and placed into production. The investors of this board (who have personally met, talked to, e-mailed) are of the belief that this will come to pass. I have made that decision as well and think the "buy and hold" will payoff in the next few years.
I have wondered what some others here on the board believe is the percent chance that it is built. Personally, I go very high, at 90%. Any other opinions out there? All the numbers seem to point that way.
Question on this years' schedule...
PEA this summer?
FS this fall?
Financing following, and mine construction in 2016?
Any opinions welcome
Just filled up the truck at .79
Sold all holdings in my Roth IRA last week and purchased Niocorp with it. You should see the look on your Edward Jones rep when you ask him to do that!! LOL
Thank you guys for your efforts in clarifying the PEA and also with PD. The free fall which has occurred has led many to be tempted to jump ship, fearing the iceberg. As the dust settles (and hopefully it has) the cooler heads and investors will prevail. I can't say that selling didn't cross my mind, but in analyzing all the data and information from Nio, still seems like the sound investment so many have believed in from the beginning.
Sounds like the FS will really be the deciding factor later this year for building and production. Stay the course!
DeeSquared, great questions which I was about to post last week regarding the same issues. I live in central Nebraska and know well the implications of the Tiger Salt Beetle and of course the importance of the Ogallala Aquifer.
It seems the Aquifer does not extend to the east enough to be considered an issue, although sometimes that does not matter if there is an environmental hoopla created, real or otherwise. I believe that Mr. Smith and the crew have this covered IMO.
To the longs, I began my adventure with Niocorp last year at .54, and just wish I had discovered it sooner. Upward and onward to better things!