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From the Motley Fool
In late 2014, Keryx Biopharmaceuticals received marketing approval in the United States for its first drug, Auryxia, which is for controlling phosphorus levels in the blood of patients with chronic kidney disease. The company has no pipeline and is completely dependent on sales of Auryxia. Investors were fine with that reality, especially considering peak sales of the lone drug were originally pegged as high as $1 billion in the United States. Throw in royalties from sales in Japan and the potential for royalties or direct sales in Europe, where the drug is approved but waiting for a commercialization partner, and it's easy to explain investor enthusiasm.
Unfortunately, prescription volumes have largely failed to impress. As if a slow start weren't enough, sales took a hit in the second and third quarters of 2016 after the company's lone manufacturing partner encountered issues finishing the product. The potential blockbuster has netted just $18.9 million in U.S. sales through the first nine months of 2016, despite having been on the market for 22 months.
The good news is that a new manufacturing partner was announced in early November, which should re-establish supply and the drug's growth trajectory. That will help to boost sales next year. Additionally, if Keryx Biopharmaceuticals can find a commercialization partner in Europe, then it could be in store for an upfront collaboration payment, in addition to royalties and/or direct sales.
It's too soon to say if the short disruption in Auryxia supply will have a long-term impact on prescription volumes, but the company is entering 2017 with momentum relative to a year bogged down by hiccups. In other words, the bar is pretty low. If Keryx Biopharmaceuticals really does have a potential blockbuster on its hands, then revenue could double in 2017.
Baupost is the largest shareholder, they think this stock has tremendous upside potential
It's not "IRS"
Hope u cashed in on ARIA yesterday
Also holding a substantial chunk of KERX, looks like IRS consolidating and will move higher
I got an idea
I lieu of the fact that the shareholder meeting will be a bust
Why don't we try to coordinate a Boston/Cambridge based little get together sooner than later.
We can meet and trade war stories and discuss the future.
Can I propose the date of May 14th (th) at a place TBD.
Who might be in?
Thanks
That I don't know
BR,
I understand your logic and am a limited partner in Sarissa. I can tell you that in my l conversations with Alex that they are reluctant at this time to take in more money. They have high cash balances and are extremely cautious about the market, much like other conservative value based hedge funds. They are in conversations with multiple large players to take in more money but are not in any rush to do so.
So conventional wisdom would think they would want more money but they are more patient and cautious. If I use that same logic of unconventional thinking I would assume a buyout later than sooner. But again, you may be right.
BR,
Alex made a statement today something to the effect that he wants to "optimize the business",
if I'm not mistaken. Almost everyone on this board seems to default to a quick sale. I'm not in that camp. There's too much hidden or uncaptured value to be had in the share price with time.
I would assume that Alex would right the ship and focus on a new course of quicker profitability. If a buyer emerges than all the better but I'm not counting on it in the short term. That's just my humble opinion.
However, you may be correct.
So where do we go from here?
No more anticipation over the proxy battle in June. What will be the catalysts to move the stock. We have earnings in a few weeks, whats the consensus?
What news should we be anticipating?
The restriction was <7% due to the tax code which would consider anyone with >7% to be a change of ownership thus causing a decrease in ARIAD's carry forward $400MM net operating loss (NOL).
It'll be interesting if Sarissa crosses the 7% threshold now???????
That Great, LOL!
Alex walks softly but carries a big stick
I was looking forward to seeing some fireworks at the shareholder meeting
I hate to sound like a fortune cookie, but I am impressed with your patience and resolve
Hopefully it all pay off for you!
Myself, I'm just leapfrogging Alex's main squeeze. I know that he and his staff are really smart and will do the right thing, so I'm doubling down with him.
I went into this thing last September not knowing what I do now and I'd have to say that I'm pleasantly
surprised by the potential in Briga. So I'm going to hold on til 20 at least. We'll see.
I'm sure it'll be a fun ride
GLTAL
Thanks
Vid, my recollection of reading an earlier post states that you have a nice chunk of shares.
Wondering what your target price is?
Thanks
Making your shares available for shorting is not the same as margin.
The brokerage firm will need your authorization to short your shares, if you comply you see no difference with your position except you can't vote. Yes you would receive a dividend if one was forthcoming.
Margin (as you know) allows you to borrow against your share's value (with certain restrictions)
So I think they are exclusive of each other.
My shares are in my IRA and they want them
You won't believe this......
Schwab has just upped the offer to control my ARIA shares (make available for shorting and take away voting rights) from 2% annually last week to 20% annually today, payable monthly.
I spoke to the rep at Schwab and they are acting as just the agent in the transaction so they will not confirm or deny the motivation of the counterparty. The program can end in a month or two (suspiciously with shareholder timeframe).
Someone is getting desperate!
Here's Alex's response to the Schwab wanting shares for shorts and voiding voting rights:
"Yes, this is a trick companies often play. Lol! Very funny business..."
True, I've been a Schwab customer for decades and never received one of those solicitations in the past. I received three in the last three days. Hmmmm
Maybe HB is using his cash for this behind the scenes?
Fired it off to Alex, see what he thinks
I'm assuming neither party retains voting rights in this transaction
Voting Rights. Upon lending a security to Schwab, you will lose the right to vote on corporate actions by the issuer.
I think no one ends up voting in this kind of setup
We're writing to offer you a unique income opportunity through Schwab's Securities Lending Fully Paid (SLFP) program. Enroll in SLFP, and you can receive monthly income for lending securities to Schwab that are in high demand by other investors.
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Thank u 4 the clarification
Short interest dropped significantly in the last few days
http://shortanalytics.com/getshortchart.php?tsymbol=aria
Schwab sent me three notices in the last three days offering 2% of the value of the shares on a yearly basis to be paid out in a monthly basis (1/12th)
If you do it you lose your voting rights, so I'm not interested.
That would be nice!
Thanks
GLTAL's
What do you think "the announcement" will be?
Alex has already stated his case why he wants HB to go. The proper pressure has been applied and proxy votes with other larger shareholders are lined up accordingly. HB's days are numbered. It'll play out according to plan.
What are you looking for a Nikita Khrushchev banging the table with his shoe incident?
May 15, 2015
ARIA150515C00010000
Last 0.40
bid 0.40
Ask 0.50
Chg -0.05
% Chg -11.11%
Vol 276
Open Int 16190
Imp Volatility 82.42%
Thank you for a logical explanation.
If you've been holding the stock for a while I'm sure you've been frustrated with the "if it goes up, then it must come down" syndrome for quite a while. This action smells differently to me, think we are in a good spot now.
Also, your term "hedge scum", does that refer to a partnership that has more $$ than you? Would it be fair for a hedge fund to call an individual investor an "investor scum"? A hedge fund may have more shares, but they also are taking more risk. They aren't as nimble as an individual investor in the sense that they can't just sell 2-3 days of volume shares quickly like you can if you want to hit the exits.
JMHO
Thanks
I'll ask this simply question again:
Please explain in simple terms how hedgescums (your term) manipulate the stock?
I fully expect to hear crickets.
Here's what happened to the shorts on the IDIX / MRK buyout last year. The sale price was negotiated by an investment banker hired by the biggest shareholder The Baupost Group in secrecy. There were three parties bidding, the share price was $7, the highest bid was $15, the investment banker played hardball and MRK stepped up last minute to $24.50.
Stock opened Monday morning at $24 and the shorts were left holding the bag. Sarissa pocketed $90M, Baupost pocketed ~$1B that day. Shorts got it handed to them.
JayC's,
Thanks, one area of caution that Alex has expressed is that the board can push the meeting date out giving HB more time to maneuver. Would like to see a date locked in sooner than later.
Do we have a definitive date set for the shareholder meeting?
Agreed
Last year when IDIX got bought out by Merck, $5 shares went to $7 then to $24.50 overnight, only held the shares for two months. That was a nice one!
Hoping for a similar fate with Ariad.
Five companies that may be looking to buy Ariad Pharmaceuticals
http://www.bizjournals.com/boston/blog/bioflash/2015/04/five-companies-that-may-be-looking-to-buy-ariad.html?ana=yahoo
Tallying of the proxy votes will take a couple of days to get the final results. It has to go thru an audited channel.
Jesspro,
"MO of HFs is to get a quick profit."
That sounds like a generalization, thats why I cautioned that there is no evidence that that would be the case in this instance.
HB's had 25 years, why not give it a few years with a new bus driver and get it where you really want it to go. With the proper management in a few years time maybe you get north of 25. Perhaps Alex is thinking he can also tie a bow on it and sell it off, I don't know. I do know that Alex is an expert in matters of corporate governance. Once ARIA went public their duty is to maximize shareholder value. Clearly HB has not accomplished that, in my mind, time for a new bus driver.
Just my opinion.
Thanks
I hope so as well.
Alex works very closely with people and isn't a my way or the highway kind of manager. I'm sure (if) he is successful in the proxy battle, that a new vision will be layer out for everyone to see and align themselves with. Everyone is aware that the grey matter inside the walls is the company.
I know that you are a proponent of HB staying. I guess I'd ask you one question:
If you hired me to drive your bus and I got you lost over and over again, would you want me to continue driving that bus in the future?
Their charter is to not use options, except for extremely unusual circumstances
Jesspro,
I guess the question becomes "why would you go long 12.5M shares and then short the same number of shares at the same time?" You'd be shooting yourself in the foot.
I can assure you that Sarissa is strictly long on ARIA. Their intentions are public knowledge. Alex likes the stock and will fix the problems like he has in other companies. I trust Alex and thats why I'm in the stock (long) as well. Alex is confident that he has the votes for the proxy battle, but its never over till its over.
One other point, there is a lot of chatter on this board about Alex's intentions on selling quickly once the proxy battle has been won. There is no evidence of that intention.
I plan on going to the shareholder meeting and see the action, should be interesting.
Hope to see you all there.