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Behind a paywall but new Intrafish article: https://www.intrafish.com/aquaculture/owner-of-chinas-failed-land-based-shrimp-megafarm-reports-complete-wipeout-of-its-farmed-fish/2-1-1030637
At 40c I figure you get a 15c dividend in just over a year plus the TRW dividend, which the market clearly is not valuing at much today, but should be tradable for at least 10c. There is of course a risk they backtrack on the cash dividend but after declaring it that would be very unusual and signal the end of the company as investible.
Thanks. Very illiquid at the moment. I have been the only bid in the market for a while now.
Thanks for posting. Think aandt also posted on the same topic a few months ago. Good to SIAF at the forefront of cold chain logistics, which sounds like it is in its infancy in China ... should allow them to increase their market radius as well as charge premiums for the fresh food guarantee.
New article about SIAF on SA: https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/5978721-ruerd-heeg/5169420-invest-sino-agro-food
Unless SIAF would actually sell some non-core assets, even a fraction, to prove their bloated book value has meaning then it will continue to be worthless as a metric for this company.
Yes 27% suggests there is still a lot of risk. I like the stock much better at 37c than prior to the report at 30c, but that's what makes a market.
I would have preferred quarterly distributions but at the current 27% yield you are being compensated well for patience & risk.
With an annual dividend of 10c now declared through 2019, the cost of capital through dilution is way higher, around 33% at the current share price. Hopefully this changes their mindset.
None of us long time holders bought this stock for dividends but for growth. We are all still in this for the growth potential, but realise given the mismanagement of cash flow, a dividend, even a token one, has the benefit of forcing them into financial discipline. So think it will be well received by the market.
However, the market is not stupid. If they start too high with the dividend, without a clear case for sustainability, the market will hammer them on yield.
Yes that's how it normally works. They pay the dividend they can afford and the market price will adjust to a 10+% yield or so. They should try to pay a regular dividend, and top it up with a special when they have a good year. If they are able to grow their cash flow in a predictable way that allows them to consistently raise the regular dividend, they market will reward them with a price that yields less than 10%.
Dream on
Dream on
Dream on
Dream until your dreams come true
Every time when I look at this forum
All these lines on my face getting deeper
The past is gone
It went by, like dusk to dawn
Isn't that the way
Shareholders got the dues in life to pay
I know nobody knows
Where it comes and where it goes
I know it's Solomon's sin
You got to lose to know how to win
Yeah, sing with me, sing for the year
Sing for the laughter, sing for the tear
Sing with me, just for today
Maybe tomorrow, the loan will take us away
Dream on
Dream on
Dream on
Dream until your dreams come true
It's not just media speculation. In the 2nd UCN response article Dr. Ostrowski acknowledged the difficulties where he proposed a few solutions. The presentations will be interesting indeed.
The experts were questioning whether it can be down at the megafarm, on an industrial scale. Demonstrating it on a smaller scale with labour intensive manual culling is not the point.
Hopefully they will be able to do very high densities at the megafarm eventually but as Tony said it will require longer term solutions that are as yet untested.
Well I think we are all now a bit wiser to the specific operational challenges of scaling up after that article, so that knowledge is to our benefit.
Specifically, the author questioned Ostrowski's claim to harvest freshwater prawns at high densities, i.e., 10kg/cubic meter, on an industrial scale.
From Sino Agro's reply it looks like this was a valid critique as Ostrowski admitted that at present it might only be able to be done by manual culling.
I still believe SIAF/Triway is a great investment opportunity but in my opinion the author highlighted an important challenge of the scale-up process that most of us investors probably took for granted.
There will always be sticklers but I for one was very happy to hear about that comment as you want to feel some passion about restoring the share price from the ceo. Most mature investors will take the comment not literally but for the sentiment it represents. Thanks again for sharing.
Thanks for sharing Swede.
Thanks. Should also include the link to Emilez's fine summaries: http://investeraiaktier.se/wp/2017-09-10/solomon-meeting-part-4-tri-way/
Thanks Emilez! Looking forward to the rest.
I just bought some.
That's what I never understood about the pre-IPO fund raising. Why would anybody pay that premium once they understood there is a cheaper way to get into Triway. And so if the pre-IPO fund raising fails to meet expectations, that may impact the IPO adversely.
I think you forgot to multiply the 18%. Then you get $2.86/share with your math.
By a stronger base I meant that retail investors account for a higher percentage of trading in HK versus NY. The FT estimates 25% in HK versus just 2% in NY. Anyway I think my point was clear that Alibaba not listing in HK was not a relevant example.
HK has a strong retail investor base and is why, unlike NY, they insist on 1 vote per share. More than one third of the more than 100 Chinese companies on the NYSE use dual share classes.
To my understanding this was the main stumbling block for Alibaba listing in HK. Whether we will meet all the other requirements for a HK listing is another question all together.
"AliBaBa couldn't list in HK so where does this fit in the "awesome" investible universe" of HK stock opportunities?"
On the contrary, I see the fact that HK doesn't allow a dual share class, and hence refused Alibaba, as a positive and not a negative factor for us.
Thanks for the info.
I own Terravia, and like my SIAF holdings it has been a long, disappointing wait. Hopefully aquaculture will be the salvation of both!
Commercial hedgers have increased their net shorts in gold to levels that historically suggest the metal is now overbought, at least fundamentally. Unless you think the world will implode, it may be the best part of the rally is done. Banro should ideally be hedging part of their production at these levels too.
Compare the POG to the Hedgers positions here: http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=GC&p=d1
The Q&A session after the presentation was very informative. Thanks for the link.
Yes, the math is a bit off using the stated numbers but the slide is very useful to understand the process.
I processed the data myself from NASA satellite observations. Satellite observations probably overestimate the rain a bit which is why I include a history for comparison. Weather stations at the site would have been ideal but since we don't have these, these satellite estimations near the mine locations at least give an idea.
Unlike last August, gold has become a fear trade. See the relation to the VIX below. GS maintain their view of rising U.S. rates and hence lower gold prices. It all depends on whether you buy into systemic fears or not. Personally as I said last week I wish Banro would employ partial hedging to take advantage of spikes in the gold price.
http://edge.alluremedia.com.au/uploads/businessinsider/2016/02/socGen-vix-gold-and-oil.jpg
Wish they would hedge some of their production at these levels.
I think the inflation adjustment already accounts for the reduced buying power of the dollar over time. While global supply is contracting I don't think the POG has to go down or revert to a historical mean. We have some tailwinds at the moment that can push us a bit higher, but outside of market hysteria I think we are in a fair range fundamentally.