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After all said and done, this what I feel about Elite:
1. The flagship product SequestOx is at least one year away from reaching the market, assuming all positive things to happen.
2. Sungen tie up will take around the same time to bear fruit in terms of financial numbers.
3. The approvals that are due to take place in the next two months will marginally lift the share price up to around .18.
Everything else is work in progress and my take 18-24 months or more.
In this scenario, what are the factors that can truly lift the stock price to beyond $1 within the next 12 months? I am not talking about hot air talk like reverse split. I personally believe reverse split is not going to happen and there is no need for it at all.
Thought this could be of some interest:
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/oxycontin-maker-stop-promoting-opioids-doctors-160737996--finance.html
Does this get the SP above a dollar?
Just a hypothetical question.
Given all the submission(s) and ones that are to be submitted shortly, what are the most optimistic, most pessimistic, most pragmatic timelines for the first approval to happen. Of course, assuming there is no rejection.
Price drops on meager volumes.
I think MMs are just wringing the stock to get the last drops of juice they can get. Serious longs are loaded to brim and waiting. Non serious investors are (may be) long gone scared or tired of incessant negative posts. Shorts may be still waiting to see if it goes down another penny or two down before they bail out.
This stock shall soon be getting to new highs on very large volumes. It definitely needs some good news. No reason to believe that Nasrat will not deliver. Delays do happen and they do for a good reason. But within this year, longs shall soar and shorts will be sore.
Oh come on!! Just wait for a few weeks (may be less). You will not need to go upside down to get to that price.
I guess you are referring to the ideal value of the company. But we need to take into account the capability of NWBO as it stands now, to be able to realize that kind of value all by itself, over a given period of time. If it cannot, it can be deemed a weakness which has to be priced into the value of the company.
So, in stead of looking at the ideal value, it may be more pragmatic to look at what is most acceptable to both sides of the table, which shall price in:
the current and future potential strengths and weakness of
NWBO products,
infrastructure,
managerial ability
the pure will to pursue as long as it takes
AND
strengths of BP (there is no doubt of their strength),
their sense of strategic alignment of their direction with that of NWBO,
their sense of the cost of missing an opportunity.
Just IMHO
Looks like we bought 19% of today's volume. Good!!
Got filled completely. 82500 @12
Not sure of the sellers. But I bought some @12. But surprisingly, my order did not get filled completely (some 3000+ shares to be filled still). However, another order for 11.9 got filled!! Not sure if this is because the order @ 11.9 is a all or none type.
What is the reason for this move upwards?
Is it pure technicals? Or is there some news already circulating among some select few?
The last part in quotes means: "At 2 years, 70% of DCVax-L treated patients were still alive"
Earlier, before the announcement of the most recent dilution by offering to accredited investors, you had mentioned about the formation of cup and handle which would be indicative of imminent breakout.
The price somewhat collapsed after the dilution. Did this break the cup and handle pattern?
Does yesterday's faltering in price disturb the cup and handle formation envisaged earlier?
WOW!!
You do concur that insider information as it stands is much more positive and upbeat. That will make this stock a strong buy!!
I am not speaking of the insiders.
I am speaking of people like Bigger and the so called accredited investors.
I am curious as to what is it that the fresh investors (accredited and institutional) know about this company that we the retail investors do not know. Definitely their investment risk is far higher than ours, but yet they are investing!!
Are they being fed some information that is legally unobjectionable and yet the retail is not aware of owing to fear that people like AF start bashing?
He is not stupid. I believe, NWBO will give him returns equal to several multiples of his investment.
What will be the latest share count after dilution due to Cognate being given around 160 million shares?
Before that it was about 440 million shares. Is it 600 million?
May I second this thought. My vision is that at some point (in about 10 years), just as we have preventive vaccines for diseases like measles, hepatitis, etc, there will be a preventive vaccine for cancer given at the stage of infancy of the individual as a prophylactic against any impending cancer.
Also, by the theory of "inheritance of acquired characters", the I shall expect that the offspring of such vaccine treated patients shall grow up to live and propagate more cancer resistant human species.
I post very little. I just enjoy reading all the posts.
While I do believe that the value of this stock is rather "large", my question would be when and what does it take to realize that value?
Will it happen in a month, two months, six months or two years?
Not asking out of impatience. just speculating on timelines
Sorry for being a bit too persistent.
Hit means a break out or a break down?
Also, just to be sure, do you mean CVM or NWBO?
Sojourner,
I am novice in charts. But isn't there a double bottom spanned between Aug-Sept last year and January this year going by your chart?
Any tech reason the price did not take off?
Over a year back, the notion was that Linda was not happy with a price tag of 5 billion. After that, a lot has passed. The company has gained a lot more strength in terms of mature positive trials and the name that comes with it. At the same time, the company gained some weakness in terms of balance sheet and finances and diluted stock.
The company may be too weak to go it alone.
As long as the bidders are strong and competing, the company should get a good price. I want to personally believe the price would be around 10-15 billion.
I always had this question. What exactly happens to a naked shorted share, the broker and the naked shorter in the event the price explodes abnormally. As a hypothesis, tomorrow Linda announces a buyout @$30/share, what happens to the naked shorted shares and such share holders? Sure, the such share holders may declare insolvency. But is that it?
Guess he will enjoy the company of the male gorilla like in the movie.
Despite all the negative sentiment on the board, I do not see any real volume of shares being sold out. You may argue, no one wants to buy this stock. But I believe, nobody wants to sell it.
No doubt, Nasrat lost face. No doubt, there has been a serious setback. But does that mean the company is drowned? I do not think so. It will take longer time to succeed. Provides a new entry point for fresh investors and accumulators.
The fact that the sell off volume is not high suggests that the big investors have not lost faith and are prepared to wait.
If the two events take too long to happen (beyond a set threshold, assuming there is one), is that reason enough to call for stop of trial for efficacy and declare at least conditional approval?
One of the reasons (and probably the only reason) the management has been so reticent is because of the mudslinging from the shorts. For some reason that is more than obvious for several parties across the industry, it appears several adversarial companies feel threatened by the direction of research of NWBO as well as the product line and it potential capabilities. There has been an orchestrated effort to bring down this company,
I have been a long for a long long time and am longing to be long for a long time further (like to be a bit funny with words).
I have seen people like AF writing negative articles at event of slightest positive news. It was called some grape fruit juice, accused of rebuke from some crazy doctor at Andersen hospital where he is not even connected to this research. Each time there was about to be a positive announcement, flimsy lawsuits will come up from some mom and pop law firms. The list goes on. If my memory serves me right, I think even some party that NW promoted/endorsed, tries to steal the intellectual property.
There has been no end to such negative propaganda. I would call Linda a lady with nerves of steel to withstand this and get it to this point. As far as the communication to share holders is concerned, the company is in an unenviable position of damned if you do and damned if you don't.
Those who understand the science and as well as what the company is going through in wallstreet, will stick on. The rest I think, ought to take the door.
This company is a bundle of risk as it stands. But again, it can offer a bundle of rewards to those who can endure.
Just IMHO
Volume the whole day has not been very high. This may be only a technical move up before further slide (can we call it a head fake?).
Until some productive news comes out, the move will be only based on technicals I guess.
Any TA specialists out there to offer some predictions?
What will this mean?
Does it call for a reverse split?
Will any new lines of business be added to the existing ones?
Does the company end up selling a part of itself to a bigger company to become a conglomerate or a partner or an amalgamated entity?
Summing it up, what are the ways this move shall increase the value of the company and thus the share price? I do agree there will be more avenues to sell the goods. But that may be too generic a reason (I guess)
Thank you Couch, for the well informed response!
Just trying to understand the situation after the big/visible of failure of Sequestox.
1. There is no clear news about the "extent" of failure. Whether it is a totally shelved project or just a bit more tinkering will get it back up and running (fit enough for resubmission).
2. Failure of Sequestox did not attract mass exodus from the stock. No doubt, there has been some selling, but not to the extent of scuttling the ship and getting into a lifeboat kind of exit. Wonder what is the reason for the hope/confidence of investors (big time ones as well as the retail longs)?
3. One of the opinions is that the current worth of this stock is around .50. Is there anything else going on that can possibly enhance the value of the stock beyond? I do understand that there are over a dozen ANDA's getting onto the conveyor belt and some partnerships possibly in the works. But is there anything else beyond this (not easily visible to the "naked eye" that is spurring the faith in long term investors? Particularly I am quite a bit positively puzzled that Sequestox caused only a flutter and not a high volume sell off. The fall in price seems to be more engineered than entirely natural. The price is going to rise again to those high teens sooner than later.
Any educated inputs will be very much welcome.
When the stock rose from .20 to .255 a few days back, the volume was over 6.6 million. Then, when it further rose to .29 it wsa close to 8 million. Now when the stock goes down from .28 to .24 the volume is only 4.5 million. So, this is essentially a correction and a healthy one at that. Just a couple of days back this pull back was predicted by one of the posters. I would not lose my sleep over it.
Is Sequestox delayed (significantly) or just shelved?
What is the valuation of the company without Sequestox? There are several NDAs in at various levels of submission/approval. They definitely add some value to the company.
Couch,
Each time you do that, I become very jealous at least momentarily. I still believe it is only a delay and not any denial. Otherwise, for the kind of % fall in share price, the volume would have been in tens of millions of shares.
I only wish I had some dry powder to spend :(
I ain't as savvy a researcher as most of the posters here.
But, from some posts long back, I believe Woodford is strongly connected/aligned (or whatever) with Roche. One possibility I want to look at is that he may be "convinced/persuaded" to sell his position to Roche. Thus, Roche will have a foot or a part of the foot in the door. Though it may not mean a whole lot of control, I think it can give a firmer footing for Roche to influence certain decisions. From there on, Roche and NWBO will be a kind of "composite/amalgamated partners" partnering with the rest of big pharmas (if need be) to work on multi pronged approach to put out various variants of DCVAX products.
All this is just my highly speculative opinion!!
To the extent I have known Linda Powers, by the way she navigated the company through the rough path, managing to survive till it succeeds, I do not believe she will let any scenarios you describe to happen. I believe she will go big and not going home anytime soon.
Thank you Flipper, for all the insights you have been offering!
Flipper,
Just trying to think the unthinkable.
I see a lot of positive points in your post(s).
But, besides all this, can there be any other point that FDA can hold on to , in order to say a no? My question may be naive, but still thought I check this out.