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May not be relevant to this board. But will be curious to know why it got hammered yesterday and today. As such company fundamentals are not that bad to deserve such hammering.
If you find it irrelevant, you may please PM me. I am not a paid subscriber, else I would have PM'd you myself.
Thank you!
I have not bought any position in this stock yet. Also, I do not have a paid subscription. I have just begun my research. Let me see where it gets me to. Then I will decide to buy or not.
Hi NASDAQ
You know me from the ELTP board.
I just got onto this stock yesterday when some one mentioned about its enormous potential elsewhere.
Unable to understand its drastic fall during the last couple of days. Do you have any DD to spare for me? I would appreciate if you can PM me.
Thanks in advance!
Is this process not similar to Form T Trading?
I am actually re-posting this:
On one side, Elite hires a director experienced in M&A and buyouts. Usually when such people are hired, buyouts/ M&A should be happening within about 6 months
On the other side, Nasrat converts his common stock into preferred stock, in anticipation of potential help to be sought from Lincoln. This indicates that Elite foresees seeking financing help without having to immediately increasing the shelf of shares. He will not have to do this if he is foreseeing an M&A or a buyout.
How to explain this conflict?
On one side, Elite hires a director experienced in M&A and buyouts. Usually when such people are hired, buyouts/ M&A should be happening within about 6 months
On the other side, Nasrat converts his common stock into preferred stock, in anticipation of potential help to be sought from Lincoln. This indicates that Elite foresees seeking financing help without having to immediately increasing the shelf of shares. He will not have to do this if he is foreseeing an M&A or a buyout.
How to explain this conflict?
What is Nazrat's buyout number anyway? Not that it really matters. Just curious.
What is the incentive for Nasrat to sell Elite in that range? I assume Elite enough has enough strength to pull on further until a few more approvals and realize a better value.
But, your numbers represent the total market potential rather than possible market share for Elite
Elite currently has about 16-20 formulations at various stages of development, submission and approval. And some formulations are earning some revenue as well.
Let us assume, Elite does not develop any more formulations beyond this and let us assume that it takes about 3 years for all these formulations to be approved and released into market to the extent of realizing first crop of revenue. What will the gross revenue for all these formulations together be?
Based on some calculations that NASDAQ and others put forth, with a decent market share captured, it should come to be around 2 billion in sales. That, minus the cost of time and effort getting there, should form a respectable basis for calculating the price of Elite. It may be noted that it does not take into account, any other possible tie ups, co-development of formulations or patents that Elite may develop during these years.
I am not good at numbers. Any volunteers to calculate this number? Any meaningful, well reasoned estimate is appreciated.
I was just back calculating the timelines based on the time of recruiting Fatmi. Such people will not be brought in ages before something is supposed to happen.
Here are some points I considered:
1. Elite is not such a "large" company that calls for a "lot" to study and configure, to get it ready for a buy out or a merger, or for it to buy out some another company.
2. Owing to his possible earlier familiarity with the organization through his involvement with HumanWell aoperations, he will be hitting the ground running.
3. Lastly, I am an unrelenting optimist. :) I may have been a bit presumptious, but I don't think I am unreasonable. The point here is, our ideas are revolving just around Sequestox and may not have very well looked at the holistic assessment. It is possible that a basket of a whole lot of half ripe apples can become a lot more valuable than just one ripe fruit and that is my point. Also, sometime back it was told that when things come to fruition, Sequest is not Elite's biggest selling point.
Sequestox approval is still going to happen only in later part of f next year.
I believe they are close to receive a clear direction from FDA.
I believe that a merger or an acquisition is closer than we think. Probably by the end of the year, with a couple of ANDA's approved and a couple more just starting to earn some revenue and another couple more just submitted.
Wonder what could be the share price by that time, I mean nine months from now.
Lot of speculation about filings and approvals
NASDAQ2020, thank you for all the responses you have been giving. I have known significant part of the information you mentioned in this post.
I thought I get some grip on how the stock is going to sail until it gets to the final shore. So, some technical insights could definitely help. And thanks to Sojourner, got some idea in that direction.
The only other question I will like to ask of you and folks like you in this board is that, can anyone reasonably predict approximate timelines for each of the points you mentioned?
I have some timelines in mind based on my own DD and intuition as I mentioned in one of my earlier posts:
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=141584197
Will be curious about the accuracy of my guestimates.
Hi Sojourner55,
Thank you for the TA insights about this stock and thanks again for honoring my request to post the same.
Regards,
Sojourner55, I apologize for the digression. While I do acknowledge this is NWBO board, may request you do post some tech charting on ELTP board? I own some position there and will enormously appreciate your tech insights.
I hold long positions in both NWBO as well as ELTP. I am not a paid subscriber and hence can't send you a private message.
Thanks in advance for the help.
Me too! I have seen this stock go up from about 4-5 dollars to 12+dollars and again tank to where it stands. I have been able to average down, but still my cost base is around $0.60 I should be above water sooner than later. IMHO. I would not say I am all in, but I am significantly in.
Link Sharpie provided:
https://virtualtrials.com/newsarticle.cfm?item=6516
Some excerpts beneath:
Quote:
Editor's (Al Musella, DPM, President Musella Foundation)
Of the 331 people in the trial, 100 are classified as "extended survivors" who lived an average of 40.5 months, with a few living more than 7 years. This is unheard of with Glioblastomas.
The key is that this is a simple shot in the arm with minimal side effects and very little disruption in the life of the patient.
This is only the beginning. Theoretically, DCVax can be combined with other treatments to make it work better. We need this treatment available now
A few interesting lines from Al Musella's article:
Of the 331 people in the trial, 100 are classified as "extended survivors" who lived an average of 40.5 months, with a few living more than 7 years. This is unheard of with Glioblastomas.
The key is that this is a simple shot in the arm with minimal side effects and very little disruption in the life of the patient.
This is only the beginning. Theoretically, DCVax can be combined with other treatments to make it work better. We need this treatment available now.
Thank you for the link, Chasing.
Going by the transcript, this is my opinion:
1. Glenmark will start marketing Phendimetrazine right away on their own to "prove their pudding".
2. By the beginning of fourth quarter, the undisclosed ANDA will have been approved and will be markted in collaboration with Glenmark for one FULL quarter. This gives an estimate of "projected sales" of this product for the next year. Combining with what Nasrat mentioned in the transcript, this projection along with other things in the works, should propel the stock price to $1+.
3. ELTP gets into NASDAQ
4. By this time (end of first quarter of 2019), Elite will have three approvals and six submitted ANDAs. Most likely by that time, Sequestox will have gotten approval or will be on the verge of getting it. Elite gets milestone payments From Epic.
5. Approval of Sequestox and sales of a few more approved ANDAs, the stock price gets ready to multi dollar level. (I may be too optimistic here). This earns the recognition of more institutional buyers. With them jumping in, stock demand will increase while supply comes down.
6. At this time (end of second quarter of 2019), the stock gets ready for a BO in a price that may threaten $10 (too optimistic) or at least $5 (too pessimistic)
All this is just IMHO. I will be curious to see comments from all serious yea people and nay people.
Any idea, what is the average cost per share for NW? He is still holding his position. I believe, he will expect at least 100% profit on his investment (this is just my empirical opinion). That should give an approximate idea what the share price is going to be (assuming no further dilution)
Hi N2K,
based on the current situation Elite is in, what would be the ripest point for a buyout?
Yes, half a dozen ANDA's are filed. One NDA (Sequestox) pending, Several marketing MOUs in place. But all this still appear to be at least raw on the edges.
Should all the filed ANDAs be approved? Should they start generating revenue?
If the company achieves too much of the above, it can become too expensive. But if the company is to be bought out as it is now, it may not fetch a whole lot of value.
What are your thoughts?
Thanks in advance!!
Will all this mean one more round of financing?
Hi Turtle,
I have known you since those Yahoo groups days. If my memory serves me correct, you mentioned that you bought something like 264k shares of NWBO when the price was at multi dollar level.
Not sure how much you sold away and to what extent you averaged down, your mindset at this point suggests that your investment is very much under water.
So is mine. But I have averaged down significantly, so the pain of loss does not bear me down so much. But my investments are peanuts when compared with yours or so many others that hold multi million shares.
Just bear with it for a little more time and you shall see very bright light at the end of the tunnel. I am sure, you believe in the science. But I am not sure you believe in the business savvy of LP. In spite of (expensive) mistakes that may have rolled in, LP et al form a very formidable team and will deliver well to their share holders. As much as we are, they too are victims of willful malice from all those BPs, AFs and all those acronyms and have a lot more lost and held at stake than retail like us.
With that said, I want to indicate to you, (if you are still holding the stock), this is the wrong time to be frustrated, though the situation can daunt people like you who invested so heavily. If you do not hold any stock, now is the time to re-enter, rather than taunt people in an attempt to hope the stock will go down deeper than the abyss.
Anyway, this is all IMHO. Stock market is a world where is each is for oneself.
Best wishes.
Price is bleeding slowly and volume is drying up. Barring any positive news, this will mean that someone is trying to get it to break the trend line so that the price tanks deep. But I do not see a whole lot of gain the traders can make out of it.
If any positive news is going to come out shortly (possibly a lot of people in some circles already sense/know) this price action shall be a forerunner for a very large breakout.
Should wait to see what happens
At this point, I wonder if LP cares about stock price as traded at the exchange. I want to believe she is focussing on what the buy out price will be. This is my optimistic view.
On the pessimistic side, well I am really nervous every day LOL.
This is a very recent post from you:
chinatown1980 Friday, 03/23/18 12:11:08 AM
Re: None 0
Post # 163385 of 164187
AVII mentions some interesting info on the other site. It seems LP and Four M have a master plan in the works. Don't worry about the patents or assets, they are in safe hands. You will be taken care of later. Just think of yourself as an employee in a family owned business. It's going to be okay, your prize will come later. I think the check might already be in the mail. Whatever you do, don't sell your shares.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=139500463
This is how the post read:
---------------------------------------------
Guys and gals, I just received an email (from info@conferencecalltranscripts.org) that alerts me to new SEC filings. There is no new SEC filing about it and in consistant with the STATEMENT OF CHANGES IN BENEFICIAL OWNERSHIP (SEC form 4) that was out yesterday. But in any event, Here it is.
NORTHWEST BIOTHERAPEUTICS INC's President and CEO just declared 0 ownership of the company.
Linda F Powers, NORTHWEST BIOTHERAPEUTICS INC's President and CEO and a director of the company, has now declared ownership of 0 shares of the company. This form is usually filed as a prelude to a company officer either receiving options or buying company shares, so there may be more to come from Powers.
To get notified when NORTHWEST BIOTHERAPEUTICS INC
---------------------------------------------
The contents was not suggestive of any typo. But since this is only an alert from a service and not the content of a document filed with, SEC, it may be interpreted in several ways leading to speculation
I think the discussion started with one of the posts saying that LP declares zero ownership of NWBO shares
Then another post mentioned that LP with Four M are planning something interesting where we may be a part of "a kind of" family owned company.....
Does any part of the discussion/speculation so far, answer any part of or all of the questions above?
Who is this Four M? Tried searching for it on the net, but did not come up with anything
N2K
I always follow your posts. And I am still waiting to see your evaluation of Elite in terms of numbers and P/S
Also, on a totally unrelated topic, did you have a chance to participate in NWBO board? All great pharma and analyst veterans out there and I want to believe your input there will add to readers enlightenment there.
Forgive me for mixing up NWBO here. But I do seriously and eagerly wait to read about your valuation of ELTP.
Thanks in advance
What is with this share price: 0.105956? So many decimals? I have seen stocks priced to four decimals. But six decimals puzzles me and that too with volume so low.
I believe you will be pleasantly surprised that you are wrong.
Not sure what kind of influence NW and Bigger can wield. But I strongly believe they will not let Linda get away with a measly buyout deal.
Does this mean, sale of Cognate has been on the works for several years??
“This transaction is the culmination of years of planning and execution on the part of our highly collaborative and dedicated team with committed investors who came together to make this a reality”
If yes, those at the helm will have already had an inkling about the outcome of NWBO trials and how NWBO has to be dealt with, post approval.
This answer is a recollection from a different board. In fact, it is a yahoo board, posted several years back. The poster claimed he used to work for a market maker (I think). What I quote below is an imprecise summation of what I remember.
There are situations, where certain buyers want a large number of shares on relatively short call. If they place such large trades during trading hours, the impact on the stock price can be significantly high, disproportionately hurting the day to day retailers. In order to safe guard the stock price from wild swings, form T trading is the route that is followed. Typically, such trades happen between the buyer and the market maker for a predetermined price. They tend to show up generally as after hour trades.
The post at that time explained a lot more in a much more lucid fashion. But this is all I can remember and sum up. Hope the information helps.
I believe nobody wants to sell.
Two reasons:
Quite a lot of people have bought this stock at rock bottom prices and they do not mind waiting.
A few like myself have averaged up a little bit. Such people will wait until the stock reaches an acceptable level.
In either case, both the groups believe the stock is worth a lot more than what it is now, making the overall sentiment positive.
The anemic volume also should indicate it can possibly rebound on pure technicals (I am not an expert at tech analysis).
What kind of price we are trying to expect/dream to deserve this kind of jubilation? Just fascinated and curious.
All kinds of numbers are floating here, ranging from .02 to 20.0
Each one to one's conviction and diligence. You find my opinion nonsense. And guess what, I feel the same about you.
Painkilling is a need in the medical world. It is recognized and accepted by the medical world and the world of regulators.
All the technology and regulation want to accomplish is how to deter/mitigate the possibility of abuse. Probably, even after the advent of sequestox, miscreants will find a way to hack through the tochnology barrier to misuse. It is also possible that the patient will persuade the doctor go prescribe more/many dose(s) of the medication than needed. But the rigor morale involved will only discourage the abuser to go to such unusual lengths to accomplish the intended misuse.
If the technology and regulations can build barriers to this extent, the objective is deemed achieved to the level of expectation.
Otherwise, there is no way these painkillers can be summarily banned without having another/better alternative.