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Hi Sharkey, JGDeep,
Thank you for the replies. I got sufficient answers. The next couple of months will be interesting to see how and where this stock price goes. All the more interesting to study this stock with respect to NWBO, the other position I hold.
Do they have the right infrastructure to accomplish this? It is one thing to make the drug and entirely a different thing to sell it.
I have been a long for a long time. But this question of capitalization of opportunity needs some strengths. Not sure, how much of such strength does ELTP have.
Of course, the next best thing is a buyout. But will that happen at an attractive enough price. Buyer will not pay more if he does not have to.
These are my two questions:
With those two or three approvals coming before end of December, how ready will ELTP be for a buy out? Does it need something else to happen before it is ripe enough for a buy out?
Assuming it is ready for a buyout, at the end of December, what is the potential buyout price? Supposing the buyout gets postponed/dragged to the end of next year, what will be the potential buyout price?
My questions do sound empirical, but I am looking at all possibilities.
Appreciate all serious responses
What is this 4-4.5? volume or price or....?
While this does sound like a bright long term prospect, in the short term, there could be some dip in the share price when the new shares come into the market. It will be a good entry point for some of the fresh entrants and for those who like to add their position.
This is old info. The article is dated 5TH september, i.e. two weeks back.
About four years backLCI bought Kremers Urban which was much bigger (by sales) than itself. Not sure if it can be ready for another acquisition so soon.
Preferred shares have preference over common shares regarding a few things:
1. Dividend payment. They get their dividend paid before any dividend is paid against common shares.
2. Asset disbursement in case of bankruptcy. These shares will be paid off first before anything is settled against common shares.
Disadvantages of preferred shares
1. They have a fixed value that does not vary with the value of the company. So, if the company appreciates substantially, preferred share holders will realize far less appreciation.
2. Generally the returns over a fixed share is much less than that on a common share.
If the promoters are trying to convert their preferred shares to common shares, it means to say that they are expecting a larger return in the short/medium run. Because, they foresee that the company's value is going to appreciate shortly.
Another point to note.
The volume. It is just 4 million. What is the float like? 750 million. So, about 0.6% of the float traded and they brought down the price by 34%. It is just some overreaction and/or short manipulation. In no time it is going to get back up.
Forgot to thank you for your response. Also, I mentioned February 2020 in error. I meant April 2020
As always enjoy reading your insightful responses.
In that case, should it be fair enough to say that Adderal or not, 2020 February and after is the time frame for a potential BO, since the Nasrat gets his shares back.
Before that if a BO were to happen owing to Adderal ER approval and a big ANDA filing, conversion will trigger automatically. Thus, Nasrat will not still enjoy the judicious price of his loaned shares. Since he is still the major share holder even without the shares, he shall not technically suffer any disadvantage regarding the voting rights.
So, summing it up, Nasrat's loaned shares need not be a stumbling block against a BO, but the BO becomes a stronger possibility with much less constraints, come February 2020, when his loaned shares get converted.
Please comment if you think otherwise.
........." So, if he cannot convert until April 2020, investors should realize "ain't no way" the company gets acquired until he gets his shares."
N2K, do you think one would sabotage/hold back a buyout deal, because one's own shares are loaned out to the company? As all agree, the BO price will be several billions. Probably what Nasrat has loaned is worth a few million (I am not aware exactly how much). If his loan is returned in the form of shares, probably he will get back several million. Otherwise, he would get back at least a portion of it (how large the portion may depend on how the deal is carved out). Even without it, he will be close to be a billionaire. So, I feel it is rather improbable that a BO deal is held back just because his shares are sitting inside ELTP in the form of loan.
Appreciate your response.
OT:
I suspect you are from India, most likely either from AP or Tamilnadu. Your hairstyle carries the likes of the actors ANR or Gemini Ganesan. :)
What will be the total share count after warrants get converted, etc, etc?
I do not know. Can't really guess that far. Some of the posters here who are far more learned and insightful than I ought to comment about it.
However, I would want to believe that, buyout or not, there will be a quantum jump in price after the announcement of top line results. It will be much higher if it were a buyout.
Just a question out of curiosity. Apart from BP's were there anyone from companies like GE?
To me, it does not appear like a pure pharma product. It is more a process enablement service and a hybrid combo of a pharma and a services company may be a great fit. How about someone like McKesson or Cardinal Health or Amerisource Bergen? These companies can work in tandem with a BP to pull this off.
This is my take on the situation.
Based on the latest press release:
"Follow-up survival data from the Information Arm patients who did not qualify for the Phase III trial are encouraging and appear consistent with the blinded interim data from the trial. In the group of 25 Information Arm patients who had actual or apparent early tumor recurrence, the follow-up data showed that 40% of the patients lived for 3 years or more, 20% of the patients lived for 5 years or more, and 12% of the patients are still alive at 7 years." It indicates to me that NWBO already has some kind of "horse sense" about the nature of success of the trial.
According to one of the statements from LP (about a year or so back), they are extending the trial to score a "second home run". So, they already know they have a home run in their bag.
A few hundred queries should not take very long. Several of these can be completed at the rate of 15-20 a day (my guess).
So, it is a matter of gut wrenching waiting. It is a matter of surviving until we succeed. Let us see what is in store for us in the sooner than later future.
David Inne's email to investors (me one of them) indicated that the contents in their ASCO presentation regarding L is going to be about steps being taken to unblind data. This suggests that possibly there will be no topline data presented (just my understanding).
Going by what you said, (Next 10 years ... if L is approved...) suggests that in the event of approval, they may not be keen about a BO.
Again, both these points are my opinion (what I deduced from David's email to me and your post about your conversation with him.
At the same time, LP had mentioned some time back, we will be seeing some high value PR's in the short future.
Will be curious to see what those PR's and their value(s) will be. The first one in the series was their settlement with Cognate. Let us see what is the next.
What you received is the second PR. The first PR is about settlement with Cognate:
"NW Bio Announces Settlement with Cognate BioServices Resolving Past Matters and Providing for Restart of DCVax®-Direct Production"
I gave my email the day this PR was published. During my conversation, Marjorie Sexton, mentioned that the first PR was released just before our conversation. So, I should expect to receive ones that would be published in future.
I gave the email address just after the first PR. I did receive the second PR via email.
Now, I am not sure if it has any significance at all. I see the email was signed by David Innes. He is probably trying to streamline communication channels, so that going forward the investor relations can be better maintained with proper and prompt communication.
Each day it starts with very anemic volume and around/after lunch somebody buys a few blocks of 10 - 50K shares and the volume by the end of the day gets to between 100k and 250k.
This pattern has been going on for some time. Not sure what to make of it.
Sometime back, I remember Linda mentioning that there will be some "high value PRs" released in the near future. I do not have a link pointing to this statement. Just recalling what I remember.
Has this anything to do with their seeking our email addresses at this point in time?
I got this call too, on Wednesday last week. I was not travelling and they left a voice mail. I am yet to respond.
Caller: Marjorie Sexton
Called from: 240 497 4060
Asked me to call back to: 240 497 8170
Purpose: seeking my email address so that they may send press releases to that address.
What is the timeline that you would opine for Elite in the current evolving circumstances? Some time back, you did say about 18 months which would point to end of 2019. Later, things changed and you mentioned that the timeline may not work out.
What would be your latest take on the timelines for a buyout/partnership?
I am not getting too excited. But I did not receive this kind of message during the last several times when I had to vote. Also, it did not make a whole lot of sense when they said I can receive their press releases via email.
Just thought if there is something brewing or cooking :)
Today, I see a voicemail from NWBO advising me to call them back to give them my email address if I am interested in receiving press releases via my email.
Did anyone get this kind of voicemail? Does this mean any serious/significant implication?
One thing I do not understand is, why Lannett is going to Andor now? To the extent I know, they bought Methyl Phenidate line from UCB Pharma about 2-3 years back. Did that not work out?
Thank you very much Sentiment! I will pursue this possibility as well.
Also, to all those friends here that answered my question,
Please accept my thanks for all your replies.
Let me see what I can do about this from my side now.
Thank you! Immensely appreciate your response!
Thank you!
Are there any sites in India where he can access this treatment?
Unfortunately no. I do not have any link to provide.
This is the information that I heard on this very board.
I am a long and not trying to pump.
I know several years back, LP was offered (or something like that) $5 billion for the company and she was not interested. Now the company ought to be worth more.
If the company can get an evaluation of 12-15 billion, I would be very happy. Not sure how long it will take to get there.
Hello all,
A friend of my friend lives in India. Just a few days back, he suffered some giddiness and other symptoms and finally was diagnosed of brain tumor.
Is there any which way he can be treated by NWBO at this point? I do understand that DCVAX direct is yet to be approved and still a way to go. Is there any possibility for this person to be inducted into one of the clinical trial programs?
Who do I or the patient's family have to get in touch with? I am based out of USA.
I would immensely appreciate your response.
Is it time yet to guestimate what the PPS (without split) in 18 months will be?
The estimates seem to vary between $10 to $30
Not an expert at this. But I read somewhere that the handle can dip up to 30% from the peak before take off. I believe it is now at around that level.
OT:A totally unrelated question about companies' insiders holding minority stock.
Hope the board does not find this too distracting. Just wanted to get some insights.
I have been seeing certain companies where the insiders own less than 1% of the company's stock. More than 90% is owned by institutions. In such case what kind of control do the insiders have on the company.
Supposing somebody walks in and buys 2% of the stock, will he have a chance for a hostile takeover?
Thanks in advance for all the advice.
OT: An unrelated question about buyout/takeover
I, right away, mention that this question is not about Elite at all.
I see in some companies, the insiders hold less than 1% of the outstanding shares, while the institutions hold a very large chunk up to and above 90%
In such case, is it possible for an outsider to by 2% of the outstanding shares and claim control of the company?
If you feel that you should not post a public reply, you may please send me a private message.
Thanks in advance for all the responses. There are certain posters like N2K, etc. that I respect a lot and I would enormously appreciate if such people respond.
Going by this summary, asssuming the max revenue scenario in 2021, it will be around 172 million. This will yield revenue per share at around 17 cents (assuming around a billion shares). What kind of share price can we expect in this scenario?
To the extent I know, Methyl Phenidate/Metadate, Metadate XR are being produced by Kremers Urban and UCB Pharma
First of all the company is not in as bad a position as all say.
The company's evaluation is several times more than its current stock price. I have not studied its product portfolio. But the company fundamentals deserve a far better price than what we see.
There is absolutely no reason for the company to even look in the direction of bankruptcy.
IMHO.
I have not bought any position in this company yet. I am looking for an entry point after I complete my due diligence (I am still working on it)