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OT: To XOMA
Hi Xoma,
The group you refer to about: Is it an open group? Is it open for new members? What does it take to join the group?
I am not a paid member in investor hub, and hence can't send private message, but can receive one. Would appreciate your response.
Lines from the poem "Village School Master" by Oliver Goldsmith (Very old poem)
In arguing too the parson owned his skill
for e'en tho' vanquished he could argue still
Does that not sound like Foxhound??
Alias born yesterday. This is your second post!!
Please note that nay sayers here are highly educated and informed, so that they at least sound very logical.
I suggest you get yourself better informed.
The sweetest songs are those that tell of the saddest thoughts!
I believe we are all in our twenties, no matter how many twenties it may be. LOL
Congratulations, Sir!
1. Lack of buying/selling interest, reflected by low volume
2. Price moving sideways for a long time
3. Improved fundamentals of the company
4. Deafening silence from management
5. Impact of approved products and ones in pipeline
6. Credentials/back ground of management team
7. And a few other things
All point to a strong possibility of
a. Breakout in the horizon
b. Management focused on a buyout/merger, and does not care about day to day fluctuation of price.
JMHO
So, as it stands, if ELTP is bought out, it should fetch a p/s of $1.35. Will anything else add to it? like goodwill, premium, pipe line products, etc? If yes, what is the potential p/s in the next 12 months?
I understand it is a very speculative question. But would like to hear some educated guestimation.
For calculating share price, do they use authorized shares or outstanding shares?
How about the ADT technology they develeped. I believe it is patented.
Sure, sequestox is shelved for now. But the technology can still be used for a different product range, right? Will that not add any value?
I received some private message. Did receive a couple of private messages in the past too.
Thanks to all those that messaged me privately. I am not a paid subscriber and hence will not be able to respond to such messages.
Also, thanks to all those that gave me a public reply as well. I post very little, but I do my DD. Honestly reading posts here is also a small part of my DD.
All the responses (for and against) and what is going in with the company, only bolsters my faith in the company. It is a matter of time for things to bloom.
It is indeed painful to watch the paint dry. But we need to remember that people in the company bear the pain of painting it and watching it dry. They put in a far extra effort out there than each/any of us.
Let us wait and see what happens. A bit of bashing and pumping will add to the entertainment while the paint takes its time to dry. LOL
The lack lustre volume and side ward movement of price suggests that the market is anticipating some major news in the short run.
Until such news arrives, this sideward movement on low volume should continue. I believe, the price has bottomed out and cannot go down any further. Let us see what N Hakim is going to do about it sooner than later. If he is not focusing on stock price, I ought to believe he is setting up the scenario for a buy out based on the fundamentals of the company, things in pipe line, future potential, etc.
JMHO
Bought some at 0.74.
Did not feel like waiting for the drop.
Thank you!
OT: Question about capital gains on donated shares
Hello all,
At some point I may want to donate some of the shares to a charitable institution. In such case, how is the capital gains tax assessed on my and the charitable institution receiving these shares?
Immensely appreciate your response.
I would say this is a dynamic environment, with things changing unexpectedly. Sequestox setback was not entirely expected. But Nastrat was deft enough to pursue a different pipeline and keep the momentum and value up. Because of this setback, certain expectations and forward outlook had to be revised. Otherwise, I believe we would be sailing much higher by now.
JMHO
I post scarecely. Have been long for a long time.
I personally believe, the CEO's focus is not on day to day stock price. He is more focussing on the company value and getting it ready for a buy out some time in the next 18 months possibly.
Each of us konw, the company value is increasing. Sales are increasing, It is now cash flow positive, several drugs are in pipeline. And a few are close to approval/martket release.
Let us see how things pan out.
There can be many reasons. Natural inefficiencies like people falling asleep, getting tired or bored, calc mistakes and corrections, holidays and etc.
Then we have the wait period between two teams getting ready to review and evaluate. And so on and so forth.
The way I look at it is, we are only investing our money. But they are investing their money (though significant chunk belongs to investors), time, emotions and careers. So, they are sure delay is not their best choice, rather it can be an unavoidable or sometimes a necessary evil
I am a part of implementation team in a company here. As a part of implementation, I am in charge of testing the application, visualizing various scenarios.
For me, to run a test to convince myself if something works or not, it is a matter of a few minutes, involving processing of data and see how the output looks.
But, to maintain compliance with best practices, SOP's, etc, this effort will call for several teams interacting together, run a test, document it properly, someone else approving the contents of the document, etc, the entire process takes a week of effort from several teams for just one scenario.
It will be the same case here. It is not about just plugging in numbers and looking at the output in the form of a graph. There will at least a hundred times more effort than that, if the result should convince FDA, and the world at large as of today and times to come. These procedures are definitely time consuming and call for a lot of systematic meticulousness
We need to still accept that NWBO is a much smaller entity than any buyer like Merck. Such buyers will not like to have buy without having to get absolute control on the company. So, 30% for the BP may not be a viable proposition. Possibly a 70% for BP may be workable for the buyer.
At the same time, it should be seen what kind of control do NWBO folks will get with minority stake. They should be able to cobble out a deal, but it is still going to be the BP that will hold the control of the company.
JMHO
Assuming, a deal is imminent and possibly decided already, the fact that Jean Davis moved to CIO position suggests that the deal may be a kind of participative rather than a total buy out. So, I would tend to think it could be some kind of partnership. JMHO
That way, the current folks continue to drive the company under the oversight of the buyer
Then why are you hanging around wasting your time? Just sell whatever position may be and move on to another board!!
My own less than professional guess.
As I understand, CFO is the one to take the door first upon a BO news. And the management may not want Jean to leave. So, they reassigned here to a different position! Of course, simple plain Jane thinking!!
The Big Pharma shares, thus acquired, will be treated as long shares or new shares?
Supposing I sell the big pharma shares a week after the shares are allotted to me, will I be paying capital gains tax or tax on short term trading?
The assumption is all my NWBO shares before the buyout are long shares.
I appreciate your response.
Typically, such frivolous law suits are thrown in just before phenomenal results are announced to get a spanner in the wheels of growth of small companies.
In current circumstances, for ELTP, such a frivolous law suit would mean an omen of impending mega positives
Linda, in a way, proactively de-listed from NASDAQ when the price went below $1 or around that. Will she now proactively list back into NASDAQ once the share price crosses $1 or should she (and all of us) fear another coordinated short attack?
The way I would like to see is:
1. Price hovers at a dollar for a week till mid June.
2. Gets listed in NASDAQ
3. More buyers and hence more demand
4. Share crosses $5 and bigger institutions take position
5. TLD released and last orbit before leaving for moon
6. Buyout news, short squeeze, etc, stock is gone past moon!!
(Possibly too much of wishful thinking. But no harm in dreaming!!)
I voted a yes to the proxy today. Until then I had not read what the vote was exactly for. I only read some of the messages here and presumed it is about dilution for financing.
Now, I feel it is not entirely about dilution for financing. The proxy says it is "authorization to dilute" and dilution right away. I believe following are the possible factors that may be weighed in:
1. Financing to some extent
2. Facilitate conversion of Nasrat's preferred stock NOW
3. Precursor to a buyout or a merger. This factor may be listed as 2a rather than 3. If Nasrat wants his stock to be converted NOW, how should one interpret it? He is possibly getting ready for a buy out or merger (?!?!?)
4. Fill the empty shelf for exigency potentially owing to possibly corona related slow down or transact those shares during a merger (possibly). Not sure what such a transaction is called. But I believe such "exchange of share" does happen during a buyout/merger.
In order to not influence the price movement with any news suggestive of such merger/BO, it was mentioned that there is a possibility that the company may not be in a position to run without further financing.!!
JMHO
I am not well versed in this day to day tech analysis. I am looking at the over all market sentiment and today's reaction indicates more positivity than negativity.
I am not trying to bash the stock. You know by now, I am a long holding 400k for quite some time.
But expecting earth shattering revenues in the short run may mean too much of optimism in current conditions. I still believe, had this corona not happened, ELTP may not have needed to go for dilution, at least not that big. It is indicative that sales may not ramp up as much as they would like it to. It may take a bit longer than expected and hence they want to have something in the shelf.
The fact that despite proposed dilution, the stock price held up today, indicative that market has faith in this stock and it is more about when than if.
JMHO
The revenue numbers may be good. But I am not sure if they will be earth shattering. We need to take into account COVID-19 effect as well. I am sure it will have significant direct and indirect effect on the sales, a part of this impact is owing to simple logistics impairment.
Does the authorization for new shares mean increasing the shelf size or is it indicative of impending dilution? As one said, Nasrat's block of shares need to be converted. That is one portion.
What is the latest count of outstanding shares?
Setting apart the possible price explosion after DCVAX is approved, what should be the fair price of the stock today had manipulation not happened?
ASM is on April 17. That is more like 54 days.
This "10% thought" has been around for a while and I would say it is highly misleading when it comes to total valuation. What is said is that the manufacturing cost is only 10% of the earlier manufacturing cost. We should all realize that manufacturing cost is only one component of the entire cost structure. So, the product's cost at the counter in a medical shop will significantly high, but a bit less than the earlier product. Let us all keep this in mind and not get unnecessarily hyped up about this 10% stuff.
To the extent I know, Lannett bought Methyl Phenidate line UCB Pharma about four years back. Where is the question of them partnering with Andor?
I do agree there were some issues for Lannett at that point, in getting FDA approval for that line of products, but that got sorted out during the early months of the buy out of the line.
I agree that BP interest will be there. One of those guys from Merck is in NWBO senior management. That is suggestive of their interest, how much ever a speculation it may be. If not Merck some other BP will get into the fray.
But will NWBO be able to get a fair enough deal?
Assuming that the approval happens, what is NWBO's strength to go it alone? If they are desperate for a partnership or a buyout, it may diminish chances for a good price. Just a thought. I do trust business acumen of LP.
It definitely will be cheaper on the whole too. But let us not extrapolate the 90% image into the total cost of the product. It may be cheaper by about 15%
90% cheaper to produce need not mean that selling is cheaper by 90%. Yes, manufacturing cost comes down by 90%. Rest of the cost structure remains the same. What fraction is the making cost out of the total cost of the product?
Long here. Not trying to bash. Just trying to get realistic