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What did anyone think of this statement in today's PR:
"Management also believes pent up demand exists, and will benefit the company in terms of purchase orders with values exceeding $1,000,000, in late 2009 or early 2010."
Is this JD-speak to let everyone know not to expect more than a million in revs for the rest of the year or would these be additional revs added onto previous guidance?
I don't know how to interpret that one and would be interested to hear other's opinions.
Kind of gives you an uneasy feeling. I'm no body language expert but I felt watching those few folks there that were there, they weren't exactly excited about what they heard. I also noticed, although I'm not sure what the schedule was ( I think it was tour-then question and answer?) but it looked like the meeting kind of ended like OK, thanks for coming, have a good one and no one seemed to hang out with JD to shoot the sh t, they just ambled off dejectedely and/or hung around and made phone calls. Anyway, that's my take, all subjective and possibly totally wrong.
Well, depending on how much much revs come in for 3Q (and who knows what to think anymore?), it might be right in line with a premium added.
If they can realistically be expected to hit the low end of revs of 9 million that would justify at least .045 cents a share based on a 5x sales premium. At least that's one metric that can be used. Profits are a whole nother ballgame.
Why not just create a separate division within Expo? Give the whole thing to Mr. Harrs. Then you've still got the explosive potential of the "gamechanger" inside the company and JD can concentrate on D&D, etc. In my opinion JD got some bad advice from someone with a vested interest in this spinoff, and that person doesn't have current EXPH shareholders's best interests in mind. All my very humble opinion.
What do you think he's paying him for!!?? 'Cause he likes writing checks and throwing them out the window? Of course he's trying to get awareness on the stock which means getting people to buy it which means an appreciation in PPS. All of these awareness videos and charts have been completely above board w/Clay stating that he is being compensated clearly in the post.
And probably no 3Q. IMO. EOM
Unfortunately I think it says it all. I mean if posters here that have a large breadth of background knowledge about EXPH and ETC can't figure out what's going on with this thing how could one expect new investors to be optimistic about it? They're staying away in droves. For some reason my gut tells me the waters won't be much clearer tomorrow after we get all of the shareholder meeting and updates, etc., outa the way. Hope I'm wrong.
Folks here's the basic problem:
I'm not selling. Because if I did sell, the very next moment this stock would take off like batsh_t. I mean it, it would launch on no news. So, sorry, I'm not selling and that means, until I do, this thing is going nowhere. So, sorry about all this, it's my fault.
This has had much less of a down move than I thought. Looks like peeps are starting to adopt a wait and see on the ETC move, the 3Q and any potential news around the shareholder meeting time. I really thought we would see .005 this week. As far as a big selloff is concerned, post-meeting: I now don't know if this thing has much sell left in it after a 70 day downtrend. I think potential investors are now waiting and really hoping that JD comes through on his projections for the co (Expo). IOW I think people really want to believe in this thing and get a good old-fashioned well-deserved-due-to-actual-accomplishment-mega-run. Whether that happens is all up to JD.
I don't think anyone can say for sure on this question. Personally I don't think the short covering fantasy that some are talking about here will have one iota of effect on the PPS.
IMO there isn't anything positive in this PR other than possibly less OS/AS of the new company than previously thought and the slightly increased possibility, and I mean slightly, that this deal will get voted out. The fact remains that anyone holding EXPH on the div/record date will get a quantity of private stock that one will, as far as I can imagine, be unable to do anything with for the foreseeable future while there is anything but a certain future for the ETC idea. Meanwhile the value of the thing that you can do something with has been devalued. I don't know, if there was some other good news I missed, someone clue me in. All my opinion.
Ain't it amazing how the market, in its infinite wisdom, figured all that out and repriced EXPH down into the 6's. Even with the share count a bit on the low side compared to your original hypothetical count. This little blip into the low 7's is just a bit of MM profiteering, all IMO.
I agree. I can't imagine retail holders, even if they voted en masse against the spinoff, would have enough votes to defeat the majority, whom, you would assume, would vote for the thing. That said, at least he's attempting to play fair. As far as a proxy goes, I don't think that's going to happen as how could you possibly get something mailed out to everyone prior to the meeting. Sounds to me like if you want to vote, you better be there. All my opinion.
The bottom is probably within 10-20% below the 200 day. So, make it the .0048 area as a low. Just my personal opinionated wag from doing this a long long time.
see news from last Thursday. People are voting with their feet.
Yeah I don't think 3Q or the shareholder's meeting are going to do much for the stock. Wish I was wrong. I think, and this is all my opinion, that 3Q numbers are going to disappoint but the bone will be thrown out that 4Q will enable to hit the yearly numbers (but we won't get those til way into 2010 IMO). My gut is starting to finally agree with my head that this investment is about played out.
The chart is indicating a rapidly accelerating selloff which should hit a bottom below the 200 right before the holiday. Think the stock is now at the beginning of a longterm downtrend. Whereas there was some doubt if it was in a true downtrend with the 200 day still in an upward trajectory, I believe with this latest private entity confusion the tide has turned. I am just about at decision time now whether or not to stick this one out or bail and I'm leaning toward the latter. Just don't want to be holding a hope and a dream in the form of dead money. Been there done that. Watch the 200 day for a subtle turn downward. Very unfortunate turn of events. All my opinion.
I think by the time ETC rolls out as a separate entity, all of the ETC premium that EXPH now holds (if any) will be fully priced out. Whether that's a 10 20 or 30 percent amount, who knows.
Unfortunately, IMO, you are wrong. Penny investors have accounts bloated with free restricted shares and no longer are attracted to free stuff in the pink world. This idea should be cancelled immediately--then you'll see a higher stock price.
I don't even think he has any idea how those shares would be issued. I mean, they would essentially be restricted stock in the sense that how do you sell them? If he issues some sort of stock certificate that is mailed to EXPH'ers? A private unsellable stock in your electronic portfolio? The whole idea is so full of unknowns why would you enthusiastically invest in EXPH now in hopes of some unknown private stock scenario? The whole thing should be flushed down the toilet (I think it would certainly have been if there were enough retail holders to constitute a majority and it would have gone to a vote). If we had gotten a PR yesterday that said they had decided, on the basis of maintaining shareholder value in EXPH and keep maximum clarity to the street, to not do the spinoff, this would be trading in the .009s. Who advises him on these things? I suspect someone that has a vested interest in spinoffs. All my opinion.
KEEP THE POTENTIAL VALUE OF ETC IN EXPH JD!! CANCEL THIS MOVE!
Hopefully not completely informal. I will have to assume that at some point during this meeting there will be a sit down portion where some questions can be asked of the CEO. This can't just be a dog and pony show. I mean, what's the point otherwise? Just my 2 cents.
EXPH--Chart is REALLY starting to shape up now. Look at the upslope of the MACD, pinching bollies. Been a long consolidation, time for the well-deserved recovery.
This chart is REALLY starting to shape up now. Look at the hopeful upslope of the MACD, pinching bollies. This should be getting some serious attention in the penny world now.
All of these trades, reported after hours were, according to my L2 legend, something called "(Z) Sold last sale - same as OPRA OSEQ". The OSEQ must mean out of sequence.
You don't see much reported after hours on this stock, ever, so it's definitely weird. The OPRA thing is Options Price Reporting Authority.
From opradata.com:
"OPRA is a computer system that disseminates, on a current and continuous basis, information about transactions that occurred on the options markets."
What all of this means is a total guess (options activity happening for EXPH???) but if you're interested here's a link to OPRA:
http://www.opradata.com/specs/data_recipient_interface.pdf
It's probably simply out of sequence trades being reported late but the OPRA thing is odd indeed.
Here we go with the under-the-advertised-bid-wacking again.
Re EXPH--It's been in a downtrend/flatline for 2 months now. It is way overdue for a bounce. Not saying it will definitely happen but if any candidate is qualified, this one is.
It'd be nice to see it make a sustained move (even on low volume) above the 20 day SMA. It will do that if it can close at .0083 or higher and stay above that for the rest of the week. With these low volume days of late, the seller(s) has been controlling the stock with its persistent bidwacking on every attempt to move up. Will this week prove to be different, especially as we get closer to the shareholder's meeting and a possible news-filled couple of weeks?
EXPH .0082, + .0003, showing a bit of strength today. Overdue for a bounce. Shareholder's meeting 2 Dec w/hopefully lots of news in the interim.
Can't even call it in?
Jo-Ann Fabric and Craft Stores--yeah this is a no kidding well-known brand and I agree, even though who knows what the real rev numbers will be from this one, this does further validate Expo Holdings as a real company (not that WE need any further validation). A bit surprised that it wasn't a full-fledged PR but whatever. Here's a link the their website, a nice one at that if you're into the fabric thing.
http://www.joann.com/joann/
It's starting to look like the rising tide of the big exchanges is starting to raise the level even for the little boats like EXPH.
EXPH .0084 possible reversal in progress. Already above the 10 day at .008 and pushing to pass the 20 at .0087. After that the 50 day at .0011.
Looked like an intentional overkill buy to flip the PSAR positive. Strangely the MM accepted the way-over-ask bid and gave it to him, perhaps with the knowledge that it would tweak the chart (although as of this moment all we have is an aberrant looking black candle). Also possible someone knew of the news and wanted to get something started, which of course it didn't. Whatever the case, it produced another meaningless candlestick movement that will get smoothed out by normal trading.
IMO it's up from here for the rest of the month in anticipation of the shareholder's meeting and further news from the company. I believe we bottomed out the chart at .0066 a week ago today, and with a few more upticks, the PSAR will flip positive after downtrending for nearly 2 months. This stock is due for more than a dead cat bounce at this point. All my opinion.
Out of 35 trading days since 15 Sep this stock has had I think 4 up days. 4! Yeah that is pretty unreal. The chart has put a new meaning to consolidation and it doesn't help that the seller(s) simply haven't run out of shares and continue to pressure the stock even at these oversold levels.
Well, we got a drop almost to the 200. This may or may not be IT. The RSI is touching 30 as we speak which is pretty amazing in itself and speaks to the severity of the drop since mid-Sep. I'd say we are very overdue for a bounce in the near future, just unsure how much the seller(s) have left to dump. We sure live in interesting times with this thing.
I think when it hits the 200 day, around .006ish, it'll be a fairly safe buy. But I would not rule out a brief plunge below into the low .005's or upper 4's either before buyers step in in large numbers. My feeling is that a long-time retail holder (or holders) has been mightily dissapointed and is slowly exiting his position (and has been for some time). When he is done we'll know when we see the ask getting hit without the constant reply of bidwacking. All my very speculative opinion.
Should see the 6's today if the selling keeps up, as it looks like it will. All my opinion.