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The only thing that's gonna save tomorrow and the near future is if they give us a plausible reason for this horrendous amount of revenue. I don't know what that could be. Maybe that for some reason the sales made during Q2 won't show up in revenue until Q3?
In addition to that they must give us the number of Easy Grinders sold to date. Not a vague line saying "We've sold lots and continue selling more." but a precise number.
After this Q2 I'm quite stunned by how they could PR a long time ago that this year will be their best yet. Meaning about $7M in revenue.
They can file a "Notification of late filing" which pushes the fins back another 5 days. But in three weeks (the latest) we should get the numbers. Unless VPOR does what it did two years ago and just stops putting out financials. I doubt it but you never know...
Hey Mistafixit,
Thanks for your thorough Youtube review on the EG a few weeks back.
I've been quite astounded that no one has been concerned about the fault you encountered. As I understood the grinder just stopped working after a few grinds, until you fixed a bad solder on the "motherboard"?
I find this quite alarming, hope no one else experiences this. Not everyone can fix it like you did :)
If someone doesn't know the review I'm talking about, it can be found here.
GSM distributing is selling the EG to retailers for $54 a piece. Does anyone have an idea how much they (GSM) take for themselves? Just trying to figure out VPOR's revenue for each item sold.
The latest financials were posted on April 18th, which was exceptionally early for a VPOR quarterly report. Let's hope they will be able to release Q2 somewhere around mid July.
Oh, that's a shame. I got the impression that VPOR had a stand there. But you're right, I'm sure there are still lots of pitching opportunities. And now that the Easy Grinder's been out for a couple of weeks people might already have heard about it and grown a genuine interest towards the product.
The next smaller catalyst before financials could come as soon as next week if they do well in this week's cannabis convention and release a PR about it. That's what they did last time, anyways.
Are these business days you are referring to? If not, we should have a reply from Bungie around the 6th of July.
Doesn't the event take place next week? June 14th-16th.
www.cwcbexpo.com
Yeah, I think Q3 sales will be the most important in VPOR's history so far. By then they've had a full quarter of sales with the product out and not just available for pre-order.
And btw, thanks for your private msg about the taxation of stocks in the US a few weeks back. I don't have a paid subscription so I haven't been able to reply.
I don't think this company even exists anymore. Maybe on paper, but have they done anything in like... a year? They had a great idea but that's all there ever was. And misleading PRs about signed shops that never produced any revenue for CAFS.
Just out of curiosity: How much do you US citizens have to pay taxes for your gains? In Finland we have to pay 30% for gains under 30 000 EUR and 34% for gains over 30 000 EUR. If you've held the shares for more than 10 years the percentage is dropped somewhere around 26%.
It's good that they expand the patents. I just hope that at this early stage they give their undivided attention to making EG shine in the MJ market. After the brand has been established it should be a smooth transition to other applications.
Yes, the looks are definitely in favor of the EasyGrinder.
I'd like to see a third party do a thorough comparison between these two.
I agree, they should concentrate on the MJ aspect for now. But once they get it rollin' it would be a good idea to explore also other applications for the grinder.
That might be a good idea especially for people who travel a lot and would have to carry a grinder with them. With a quick Google search I found some existing electric pill grinders, but they're not as stylish as the EasyGrinder.
I wonder if there are some additional regulations that the EG would have to comply with if it was marketed as a medical device.
I agree. It's good news and definitely the direction VPOR should be heading. Now we shall wait for share buybacks to reduce the O/S. We might have to wait for a while... :)
Yeah, that was a strange comment on Ched's part. His point was that OTC companies end up maxing out their A/S, but then again he said that after doing that they either do a reverse split or raise the A/S. So why would he even pay attention to the A/S if he thinks it bears no meaning in the end?
The topic was "What will happen to the PPS when the A/S reduction gets finalized." For some reason Goodtimes thinks it will directly affect the PPS (make it go higher), even though several people on this board have said to him this is not the case. He's got the A/S and O/S mixed up.
What do you think will happen to the PPS and why?
Haha, thanks for the invite, I'm in. :P
I'm moving to California in September so it'll be a short trip.
That's great news! It means my estimations were way more negative than I meant them to be.
Is that "1% every three months" just an example or a standard procedure on how insiders can sell their shares? I found this article about rule 10b5-1 on Investopedia. Is that rule what you were referring to?
That's what I'm hoping for, too. But again, I'm preparing for the worst case scenario. :)
It's easier to think where the PPS should at least be than to presume only good things happening and guessing where the price would peak.
Right now I'm thinking our PPS should be a little over 2 cents. At least. Once the product starts shipping, that is.
I'm always expecting the worst case scenario to realize, that's why I'm assuming all the prefs will be converted in October.
Actually I do know the allocation of the preferred shares, it was in the quarterly:
Dror Svorai 262,250 10/18/2016
Yaniv Nahon 87,500 10/18/2016
Shalom Ohayon 396,500 10/18/2016
Arik Cohen 140,000 10/18/2016
Avi Simhon 140,000 10/18/2016
Asaf Cohen 140,000 10/18/2016
(multiply all those numbers with 1800 and you'll get the number of converted outstanding shares)
This is where I want you to correct me if I'm wrong (no sarcasm), but I don't see how trading volume would prove that no new shares have been issued.
As investopedia says:
The reduced number of A/S only tells us the maximum amount of possible dilution. Dror even said in the PR that there is now room for LESS dilution, not that there will be no dilution.
Besides, they can later re-raise the A/S if they want or need to.
A couple of months back Dror PRd there was no dilution in sight and almost immediately the O/S was raised from 4,04 bln to 4,22 bln and now to 5,07 bln. Dilution or no dilution?
Oh good, you found the conversion ratio!
In total there will be 2 099 250 000 new shares in October. That's a lot, and it's actually a +41% change compared to the current O/S. But according to my calculations, with the current PPS VPOR would still be undervalued after the conversion.
In the table below I've written down what the situation could look like at the end of this year: O/S risen to 7,1 billion and revenues at 6,7 million (a careful estimate, the same as VPOR's best year 2015).
Even after the conversion in October and with the current PPS we would be about 8,8 times undervalued compared to ACOL.
The share structure sucks, but it doesn't necessarily kill our flow.
VPOR and many of the MJ sector companies have negative earnings, so you can't really effectively use P/E ratios for comparison. Instead you should use the price-to-sales -ratio, which according to my calculations revolves around 30 for MJ companies. For example ACOL's P/S is about 28.
That is the best statement I've ever read in a VPOR PR. Let's hope they are able to provide us with more accurate numbers in the coming weeks.
There are 800 million new shares compared to last week (and one billion compared to the run in february), so unfortunately there's a big chance we'll be trading in the low to mid 20s before the next piece of news.
Yes, foreign trades get executed in real-time during the market's normal trading hours.
Here in Finland the OTC can be traded via LynxBroker, which is a subsidiary of Interactive Brokers. There might be other brokers that offer OTC, but Lynx is pretty good and I've stuck with it.
Indeed. I compared MJNA to VPOR in my post earlier this week. With a P/S -ratio similar to MJNA's we could easily reach 2,9 cents.
The A/S won't (directly) affect the PPS even after the reduction has been finalized. A company's market price is calculated using the O/S, I think you're confusing these two share types.
True, we could spike very high. I was thinking about a more lasting price range.
I think we could spike somewhere around 8+ cents.
All my opinions, of course.
Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think the increase in the O/S has to necessarily show up in the volume right away.
If the terms of the merger said that the restricted shares could be converted to common shares starting last friday, wouldn't that mean the O/S would increase immediately? But it wouldn't affect the trading volume until they decided to actually sell their newly converted shares. Which might happen tomorrow, in six months, a year from now... Or how does the conversion really work?
I use a similar approach but with a careful $4M yearly revenue estimation and a 30x multiple.
The revenues could become huge once they get it all running, but at this point they still have a lot to do to make it happen. Like start actually delivering the product. :)
It's the same logic you used when you said our PPS would double. Only that statement was based on the halving of the A/S which doesn't directly affect the PPS. If the O/S was halved, then yes, we would be trading twice as high. But instead it was raised by roughly 20%, hence my statement.
In what time frame? This year? No way. In five years? Maybe.
To get to 25 cents their yearly revenue would have to be over $40 million assuming a similar price-to-sales -ratio (around 30) to other MJ companies. So if it's ever going to happen it's going to happen in a very distant future.
Right now I'm thinking a realistic short term (meaning this year) price target could be somewhere around 2,2-2,5 cents.
I guess the conversion from preferred to common has started. That sets us back about 20%.
I hope that's all the conversions from the merger and no further dilution will occur.