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Once again, the good ole saying stands true....
Trade what you see and not what you think!! LOL
I am watching yet another spike and channel pattern that broke to the upside and now is just reentering the channel.
I obviously didn't get my dip to buy this morning.
I got cold feet this morning and was waiting for a .50 pullback on that big green candle. But.... didn't happen.
I normally buy 2 contracts, I should have at least bought on the close of that big green candle, that way I would have had a little piece of the action.
Currently looking for a bounce. It does look like price finally put in a little ABC move. Then I will try my luck at trading in between the range of the yellow lines.
Daily price action very nice today. Price came down to the 50 EMA and bounced. We already have a 50/200 crossover.
Like everyone has mentioned already, a lot of action has taken place at this level and I expect it will continue for another week or two.
As long as price stays above the 50 MA I am still bullish.
Price broke the trend line and then took out the previous swing high.
I am looking for a chance to buy the dip.
Flirting with all time high again. I think that it's gonna get taken out sooner than later.
The only pattern I see as a potential trade set up is a small spike and channel pattern. If it breaks down first, I am looking for a small bounce up again possibly taking out the last swing high or even the all time high, and then a little bigger pullback.
But I think the best trade is going to be a buy the dip.
SPX and a potential 3 drive pattern that would put price around 4810 to 4897.
https://fbs.com/analytics/guidebooks/three-drives-pattern-245
VIX daily would also suggest another spike closer to late Feb/March
SXOOF This one has an interesting set up with the 50/200 MA crossover.
If price can hold above the MA's it would be bullish.
There isn't a lot of volume yet, so I am looking to try and pick up a small amount around .31/.32 and look for a potential double at the .618
This is one for my long term investment portfolio where I aim to sell half at a double and take all of my initial investment out and just let the other half ride for the next 5-10 years.
The worst thing I did over the past week was to have a bearish bias instead of keeping an open mind and allowing price action to determine my trades.
I had a target of 4480 to 4500 in mind and I kept looking for bearish trades thinking that those targets would get hit.
One thing that I try to trade by is the ole saying
"Trade what you see and not what you think"
On this 30 minute chart I totally missed the fact that price bounced right between the .786 and .886 which is a key level in a consolidation period. It is often followed by a bounce back up to the .786 in the opposite direction. And that target just got hit.
On the 5 minute chart, I really need to get better at recognizing the ABC expanded flat correction and trusting to trade off of it.
I thought that since my downside targets had not gotten hit yet, that the trend line break out would be a bull trap, and I was wrong. The price action was bullish and I should have taken a long position on the break out of the trend line after the expanded flat correction.
A closer look after the wave 1 and trendline break, you can easily fit a 5 wave count into this move.
There was a double top trade this morning that I missed.
Yes, gonna buy a small position down here.
ABC the deep pullback at point C normally suggests an extension between 1.18-1.27. Anything above that probably means that they are putting the squeeze on anyone shorting the market yet once again.
Also price is now between the .50-.618 zone of the bigger move down as it is bouncing this week upwards. Typically a stand at the .618 would be more bearish than if it breaks through that level.
The entire overnight session was pretty much in a range of either reaccumulating or distribution
Needless to say, I got stopped out at my break even on the other contract.
Yes, I don't see 4850 by Jan 1.
I think that the next 2 weeks are going to still be very choppy and hard to trade.
This would be my ideal set up going into the end of the year. Some type of an ABC corrective expanding flat move. Then it should break out either way and start some type of trending move.
They say that the markets trend 30% of the time and then correct or move sideways 70% of the time.
The goal is to try and catch the 30% move and be able to stay in the trade for a few days instead of this choppy crap.
I just don't see the market starting a major trend going into the Christmas and New Years week.
Spike and wedge extended a bit further into the night and then broke down but did not get to my expected move before going even higher now.
They are putting the squeeze on the shorts again.
A closer look. Price is once again back into that support zone again. It has spent a lot of time in this area.
It is just about back up to the top of the zone and there is also a trendline there as well.
TQQQ 1 hour chart. If you look at the chart Distribution #1 on the Wycoff stuff, it looks like TQQQ is about finished on the Distribution and could head down after this bounce in TQQQ.
https://school.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=market_analysis:the_wyckoff_method
Some resistance around 153/154
A closer look at the overnight session.
Big picture is a spike and channel pattern to the downside that lasted until about 1 am.
It stopped at the purple center line from a previous center of consolidation. Link Back
Along the way on the bounce to the upside there were a couple of inside bar break outs and a small spike and channel.
But basically all the targets have been hit and now it's time to wait for another buy or sell trigger.
Technically there is a littie more downside on the break down of the spike and channel pattern.
EDIT, you could say that there was a near miss on both the upside trendline break target and then on the break down too.
Yes, it sliced through the supports.
As far as WKHS, I hope to get in and get at least a double on my money and then sell half and hold the rest longer term.
My bad tom, I meant to say the EV sector and some of those stocks we had mentioned earlier.
Thank you, and same to you.
Just remember that buying is easy, selling is hard.
Look at how powerful price action is when price finds support at a 50 EMA that is above the 200 MA in the green circles.
Then notice price action when the 50 is below the 200 in the red circles.
Also look for gap fills etc.. you never know which one will be the big winner or loser.