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Very nice. Hope it adds to exposure.
HR
Aren't revenues based on sales to distributors rather than scripts?Obviously the two will eventually correlate over a long enough period (six months to a year?), but trying to predict revenues based on scripts over short term, even a quarter I think might be futile.
JMO
HerbieRay
Most investorhub members live lives of quiet desperation.
attempting to control what they cannot control
attempting to influence what they cannot influence
attempting to quiet those not in their frame of mind
Then there are the few who see the future
and see that it is in good hands
and place their bets and let it ride.
Trying to get "insider information" from Amarin which is not PR'd is futile at best and illegal at worst.
Calls to Amarin or their consultants such as Dr. Bhatt will be and should be met with silence or a courteous diverting reply. They are not going to risk anything that may be construed as non-public. Lots of SEC considerations here. i'm sure Dr Bhatt has signed contracts which prohibit him from divulging non-public disclosures.
Violation of this could result a suit which stands up in court, and which damages AMRN and our outlook for profits.
AMRN mgmt.is doing all they can to get V to market and to prosper the company. The guys on the outside with minority stock holdings or less just have to trust and have patience.
It was kind of fun before corection:}
Flub:
This is great! However isn't AMRN revenue for a quarter tied to sales to wholesalers/distributors rather than directly to end patients? It's just a question for my own knowledge. In any case, the sales will eventually show up in both areas, possibly with some lag.
Go AMRN!
I hope you are right.
Why the stock would trade higher based on priority review expectations is beyond me. AMRN has explicitly said that they expect standard review cycle.
What don't people understand about AMRN's PRs regarding their expectations? Yet so many speculations.
Look for $16-$20 range until 2020. Then TAKEOFF!
Which is precisely one of the reasons we are going to Gia. Highly unlikely we could get a deal for a present value equivalent to $200 + in 2023 - 2024.
In view of the life saving aspects, I don't understand why AMRN said they expected standard review. Certainly the life saving aspects are staring them in the face.
Just their conservatism?
CBB: re NASH.. wouldnt this require another trial?
J: re all for nothing. Maybe it seems like that in the short-term but it's really just another building block in the V story and will contribute in its way to the prize which for those of us which are willing to be patient will receive.
Wasn't my intention to rile you up!:)
I believe the dark period you are referring to Will Go On until the results of the Adcom unless notified otherwise by the FDA
I believe the argument is about percieved lack of disclosue in the Sept 24 announcement of possible reduction of efficacy due to mineral oil. That was Amarins announcement, not rhe FDAs.
Its the information in the announcement that is at issue, not who approved the use of mineral oil.
Of course the question of the validity of the mineral oil effect is still out there even though it has been countered.
BTW, I believe this is all BS
Well WithDueRespect, we'll see won't we?
The point is that his assumption about extrapolating his 6B rev#s to get PPS for 20B was erroneous.
I am just trying to be of service to those that have never heard of PE multiple tracking the revenue growth rate.
for example, growth rate-40%......PEmult=40
Take ABMD for example with PE-60
"Earnings Estimate Revisions for Abiomed
For the fiscal year ending March 2019, this maker of heart devices is expected to earn $5.05 per share, which is a change of 106.1%from the year-ago reported number.
You are not allowing any PE multiple.
Typical PE mult is 20-60. Higher for very fast growth rates.
Assume 40.
Rev X Gmarg / #shares outstanding × pemult =pps
$20B x .3 /.38B ×40 =$631
This is GIA. You cant get this with a BO
Analyst earnings and Revenue projections:
from: https://articles.marketrealist.com/2019/04/comparing-sangamos-and-amarins-revenue-growth/
Analysts expect.....Amarin’s 2019, 2020, 2021 revenue to grow more, by 59.43%, 55.26%, and 47.30% to $365.43 million, $567.35 million, and $835.73 million.
Analysts expect....Amarin’s non-GAAP EPS to grow 52.56%, 230.59%, and 207.33% to -$0.19, $0.24, and $0.74.
assuming similar growth rates in 2022 and 2023, and 2024, that is why why I expect a large GIA PE multiple (20-50 pick one)in those years, and $200+ PPS.
RE: Partnership with AMZN! Does AMZN know this?:}
Anybody how much information does the FDA need or care about besides the information in the snda which I assume is 95% concerning the Rit trial?
For example corporate Financial robustness or stability, stock of raw material, dollars to purchase, competing products either in place or on the horizon, efforts in other countries, Etc.
A secondary question are they intimately aware of and will they consider the reason the Rit trial was run following the anchor results? Will they factor in the fact that the mineral oil was part of the agreement?
There's nothing to report there's no attempt to defraud these agencies simply report the information that they have available to them at the time they're not representing it as guaranteeing that it represents actual revenue of the company that they're reporting.
Those trying to use this information to get ahead of everybody else needs to understand that they're using this information at their own risk
You need to recognize the source and bases of those sources estimates. There is no case to bring to the SEC. What's wrong with waiting for Amarin reporting of q1 results?
BTW, AMRN is in a news lull right now. Lots of other opportunities out there which short term investors are taking advantage of.
Give it time.
My perspective as it applies to AMRN:
From Josh Brown CNBC:
I agree. This will be an extremely bipolar stock for the next 12 months. Very wild swings to be expected as short-term Traders attempt to take advantage of the momentum and the lulls as different news comes out in spurts.
Looks like investors are taking their money elsewhere while there is a lull in the news here. Volatility is to be expected. Think long-term folks.
Hawk_Driver: After re-brushing up on DCF I guess even the earnings growth rate effect is taken into account to some extent buried whatever assumes for the discount%. Again, thanks for pointing out what I had forgotten after lotsa years.
It does say that if the assumptions on those revenue streams is correct we are already trading at a severe discount because those results are present values.
You are correct that was my mistake. The multiplier is built in. What it doesn't factor in is some trading nuances such as momentum and effects of Revenue growth rate and earnings growth rate on the PPS.
Also the separation of cohorts in theJellis study made this an asymmetrical bet in favor of passing.
Pyrrr said it was around 14% also just do two the statistics of Trials failing. But that did not account for doing the real research into the science. JL did that.
So much for the market wisdom
card:
I am reposting HDGs estimate post from 10/24/2018.
He used a Discounted Cash Flow analysis.
Use this to compare to LBLs estimates.
Remember that HDGs final numbers are Net profit per share, so apply the PE multiple of your choice.
:2023-2024 projecting out $33b per year" THINK 2023-2024!
Peak revenue and peak revenue growth rate.
PE multiple of 30 based on PEG.
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
I'm 100% with your approach but my timing is a little more delayed. I think those PPS numbers are more appropriate for 2023 2024.
Some try to predict based on DCF analysis. That might be right for a buyout, but I don't see one.
I believe revenue and revenue growth rate will be the drivers, and the max product of the two should occur sometime in my time frame.
I could be wrong.
HR
Go figger, lyfts at $78 with negative$3.21/sh