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So moral of story:
Either become an inside seller, or an investment banker! :}
In retrospect I agree with you.
TTE, You are probably correct. Its easy for us (me) to search for motives.
Bottom line is AMRN got the money, and GS got the deal.
Peace.
HR
Did anyone here stop to think that AMRN might have suspected a severe 2 year global downturn was coming...taking down all equities with it?
If so, wouldn't it be prudent to raise the money NOW? OK, one could argue that in such case they should have had the foresight to raise at $23, but how much was known about a trade war then?
Sometimes I think we view AMRN personnel as myopic scientists with focus entirely on a test tube or computer screen. Lets give em at least a little credit for having some broad view financial smarts, either internally or with the help of advisors.
I don't have all my eggs in one basket, I'm still long AMRN and I still think 2023. Starting from today's baseline, I'm betting my stake in AMRN that they will outperform the market substantially over these next 4 years.
JT and crew know what they're doing PERIOD.
Everyone here on this board without the contacts and experience of the Amarin crew wants to fine-tune this operation to suit their own imagined optimal outcome.
Some of us think we have the power to alter the path of this growing 20 ton gorilla.
The bitter truth of the matter is that we're just secondary players sitting at the mercy of these entrepreneurs and their financiers.
So it gets down to the basic question that each of us has to ask ourselves: " do I or do I not trust the judgment and process of the key players to bring me profits which I could not obtain in any other venue?"
Retire why would that be a fear of yours? Why not just wait to get the benefits. I think the problem is your expectations are that you want it NOW. The company isn't set up that way. Therefore your expectations will always be flustered.
I'm not bad-mouthing you just trying to help by giving you some outside perspective.
Grey... when? How about when the annual GAAP earnings are at $3.00/ share and growing at 80%/year? Sounds like 2023 to me. Okay, maybe the majority of the short decoupling occurs sometime before that.
Just call me a (patient) cockeyed optimist.
Jessie I believe JT did allude to dealing with the insurance companies I think it's all part of the plan. It all takes time.
Mateo you don't let other countries push you around because if you let them they continue to push you around they will bury you . At some point you draw a Line in the Sand that's the only thing that they understand.
Anyone who has ever been bullied and was afraid to fight back and then continue to be bullied and then finally fought back until the bullying stopped understands this concept.
Nobody likes a trade War but sometimes you got to stand up for yourself or you get beat down.
There's going to be some pain here until the bullying stops but after that it'll be worth it.
That's what history teaches us.
What didn't "the market" know on 9/23/2018?...A LOT!
What makes one think they know %wise much more?
They ("The Market")are looking at Trump/Trade.
They are looking at Powell rates,
They are looking at GE, Tesla, FAANG, etc., etc.
They are looking at a whole universe of stocks that we don't care about.
There is a small group of manipulators that are taking advantage of the void in activity and absence of substantial positive cash flow.
Our opportunity.
MHO
invest: current AMRN stock price is:
$18.35, no wait $18.40, whoops, just went to $$18.38, hold on a minute... now $18.43., oh nooooo mr. bill now $$18.36
LOL
From CNN Business re AMRN price target:
The 6 analysts offering 12-month price forecasts for Amarin Corporation PLC have a median target of 30.50, with a high estimate of 51.00 and a low estimate of 23.00. The median estimate represents a +66.30% increase from the last price of 18.34.
My opinion is that the only thing "baked in" to the PPS was the last earnings report.
I don't know. I think today put another stake in the ground. If this financial result was baked into the price then the fact that we held above the open might indicate that there's not a lot of pressure to sell the news. Plus the market was down.
My gut tells me we're putting a floor in here around $18.
MOO
Retire: That's kind of what Ive been thinking.
Re Supply Chain: I cant help fantasizing about AMRN somehow "cornering" the EPA market (or supply) as a secondary effect of this effort. This might include eventually supplying EPA product to other OTC manufacturers also for use in their watered down products.
Dreaming? I dunno.
GAAP or EBIDA Earnings breakeven? Makes a huge difference.
GAAP would be huge. Some analysts rely on EBIDA.
Herb
MELLOW:
PPS is never established by addressable Market. Results and current penetration percent have something to do with it.
Is there any company out there with no risks? I doubt it. That's what hedging and diversification are all about.
I believe the shorts aren't as dumb as some of us think. Some of the "shorts" are also day traders. This limits their exposure.
The "long term" shorts most likely hedge with OOM calls, or some other option setup.
Also, all the shorts don't necessarily think the FDA will nix or limit the new label, they are just betting it doesn't happen in the near term (about a month), and they take advantage of the lack of buying interest because of no news. Of course, I guess there are always some that are betting on "failure"/
Just MO.
Right on! REALISTIC does not connote NEGATIVE
"small to substantial" is CYA for all outcomes for all people.
Point is it benefits everybody.
Thank you! Now all we need is for the Reps and advertising to get these words out to the professionals that count, and not rely on these professionals to randomly come across this information in the publication.
JL, I was simply responding to a question as to why EPA wasn't being marketed by others in this form (not that they are not trying). That's all the response about the patents was addressing.
HR
Probably AMRN patents restrict the marketing.
Thats a big part of their IP.
I've had University instructors and Bosses that never gave ratings of "A" under the pretense that these is no such thing as perfection:}
..and IMO a non-takeout (GIA) PPS potential of 2-3X the takeout value, since the street often values stocks based on current growth% and momentum.
It's a "shake out". Really easy to pull off with plenty of doubters around and no news.
Remember these shorting pros are experts at this game.
FFS: We appear to be sitting at the previous downtrend line forming the triangle (approx $17.72). What do you think? Support here? Or does the dilution distort the data on which the triangle is based?
Just because the future is bright doesn't mean that the pump and dumpsters and shorts are going away. They're still a short-term opportunity here while there's little to no news to bring the PPS down further. My gut tells me that $16.50 is a floor to be tested. I'm still looking for high double digits or greater than $100 in 2023.
Not good for the short-term $25 call buyers but I would take it.
Just my opinion, nothing to base it on except optimistic cash flow projections past Q3 of this year.
???????????
Are critical cholesterol ratios indicated on Statin labels? I'm not sure because I am statin intolerant and had to stop.
I'm asking because a lot of doctors put a lot of stock in that ratio, onlabel or not.
IMO Hedge is a secondary benefit of the offering, not the primary but a valid one anyway. Since you gotta raise for positive outcome anyway, you get the free benefit of the hedge against a negative.
Some here think there is no hope in the event of a negative, but I see hope, not an easy road, but hope. Just look at the adoption curve without the expanded label. Almost cash flow self sustaining.
In any outcome, they get to live another day with the raise.
But we are discussing effects of a IMO 2% probable (negative) outcome.
Need perspective here.
All I'm saying is that they needed this money now for obvious ramp-up reasons.
As far as failure insurance is concerned, of course failure would take this to the mid single digits or less initially. It would be the end of the road for most of us as AMRN investors. But not for Amarin as a company. I've seen estimates (wild ass guesses) about the future if they had to stick with marketing the product as it stands today. Its would be a large setback but not the end of the world for them. They would severely wounded, but not dead, and cash-rich. Who knows what they could come up with?
I AM NOT predicting that this will happen and I am 99% confident that it won't happen, and for the other 1% I pray it wont happen, just mentioning that should it happen, AMRN and their cash would still be around in some form for several years (not with me as an investor however.)
Anyway kiwi and all the rest, peace, and have a great weekend. I'm sure its all gonna be good.
Right but you do have to admit it buys them Insurance in the extremely unlikely event of number two. Insurance that wouldn't be there if they waited until after unlikely bad news. That's the thing about insurance you buy it and hope you don't have to use it.
Why would they dilute now?..
1. To get ahead of the curve prior to approval if approved
2. To have capitalization in order to survive if not approved.
Yawn...wake me up in 2023.
It will undermine The credibility
Maybe to some
Okay I understand the share offering prices. But I disagree that they may need another offering. Once they are profitable and have that positive cash flow there should be no need for another offering. That should be within 6 to 12 months