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Raf, I somewhat share your pain, but have mostly adapted to the reality of getting trapped in a trading range with no news. Kind of like Groundhog Day 3.
I don't have the power or resources do do what I am about to suggest, but here are two ways to get the PPS to advance:
1. Put in a bid for 1M shares @ $20
2. Convince others to put in a bid for 1M shares @ $20
Not being sarcastic, just realistically obnoxious.
We'll get through this.
A $2 dip would have been the end-of-the-world last August. Today, its just "trading noise" within the trading range.
I'm not a trader. Probably miss a lot of $ opportunities, but I just don't have the stomach for it anymore.
I dunno, probably lots of range traders preying at this level in the absence of news.
Bit of resistance at $18.00. 3rd attempt to break through this month.
Hope we're not headed for bear engulfing reversal.
Oh well..the breakthrough will happen eventually, if not sooner :}
High end of the trading range or prime for a breakout anybody guess?
How do Patents and FDA rules play together with V? Can one exist without the other?
I am knowledgeable about the universe of each. (I hold a couple of electronic patents), but in terms of their interaction and how they affect the V market.
Anyone knowledgeable want to comment?
HR
There's a danger in the short-term that V will get lumped in with other drugs in the quest for lower price drugs during the government initiative. It may take a while before the true value of V is recognized as it affects the total cost health and lives savsd.
A win is a win IMO. Should open up a huge part of the available market...that part where insurance companies now default to a "lower price alternative." Also, the MDs in the "ignorant class" would have less alternatives to recommend. (My PCMD wanted me to use OTC fish oil until I turned him onto V). Sure, a penalty award would be nice but not necessary IMO.
Ultimate sanity check in 10-1/2 months IMO. GLTA.
Low volume pre market exuberance.
Sanity check in 10 1/2 hours.
Statins "killed" my muscles. Been on Zetia for 3 years.
LDL is high but ratio is on the cusp (5).
No side effects with Zetia.
HR
Agree: the bids will overwhelm the asks.
Study this to death and let people die in the meantime. Stupidity! What are they thinking? They care more about data precision than people's lives? Who draws the line here?
re Marzan: This Company loves maintaining secret...
I can see how some individuals can get heartburn over lack of information and what it does to the PPS on a day to day basis.
However the reality is that a well run company has to do a balancing act as to how much information it releases and when for a number of reasons too numerous to go into here.
Bottom line is that Amarin has released its vision and forecasts of growth and critical events necessary to achieve those and so far has held to them, at least those within its control.
I have faith in the company and the short term perturbations resulting from the shorts profiting from the periods of silence does not bother me one bit....part of the paradigm we sign up to as small biotech investors.
HerbieRay
SB: My thoughts exactly! Its as if you took the words right out of my mouth, and phrased them better than I would have.
Same trading pattern day after day.
Pops at open, then shorts invade.
Oh well..gotta remember the long term thesis!
maybe this will jinx the dip today...:}
JM: yahoo finance.MO OLD NEWS, DEBUNKED!
1. MO was used with full knowledge and approval (I believe) of the FDA.
2. Stat results were still significant even with possibility of some small interaction.
3. Much has been written debunking this claim.
Unfortunately there is still this "red herring" which continues to be dragged across the wonderful product and result.
There's always those concentrating on PPS "noise" and analyzing the hell out of it.
I was one of those, and I've learned the hard way that that is a prescription for the "loony bin" or at best, poor decision making.
OK, if you are a day trader, maybe there's some sense to it. But not for this type A.
I have invested what I am comfortable with and I am prepared to wait this baby out.
$40-$70 if a buyout in the next 11 months otherwise later probably no one can afford buyout.
Else: Triple digits in 4-5 years.
Either way I wont complain... but watching the ticker and getting ulcers?... not this guy. Not No More.
My guess is a trading range $16-$18 until Feb 28. Nothing to base it on but my gut, which is about as accurate as some of the other stuff I see across this board.
Unless of course a buyout or severe "hit piece" or alternative competing drug news, or an FDA scandal, or unexpected degradation of the EPA supply, or....or....or perturbs.
So be my guest and go for it
What happened is what everyone forgets about TA...Its only a guide! It cannot predict hit articles or other black swan events.
It tells you what levels to watch closely. It cannot and will not ever tell you precisely what will happen. In fact, it is always couched with something like.." if it breaks this level then probably..." emphasis on "IF" and "PROBABLY".
I have stopped paying attention to those things and I try to keep my eye on the prize in the long term. The only thing that will change my mind at this point is if anyone solidly proves that MO caused the difference in CV.
IF the MO thing has been debunked, why the continued focus? Hasn't the story been told satisfactorily?
Opinions?
FFS; That's IF the negative breakout fails.
The good news is that it wont matter in the long run, since fundamentals (earnings, cash flow, buyouts, etc) will dominate.
So now comes a retail sales 'panic' because the guys looking for a quick buck (BO or otherwise) aren't getting what they demand when they want it. Or may its options driven. Or maybe they see the general market going up and they want a piece of that action so they sell AMRN to fund that fix.
And along comes the opportunist long-termers snapping up those shares 'for a song'.
I have no idea when this puppy is gonna hit the $20's and beyond again. All I know is that I have planted my oak tree acorns in fertile soil, and I'm willing to let the next 4-5 years do their thing.
When that time comes, I wont be surprised to see triple digits.
GLTA
invest:
JL and Relocate: Nice analogy! Lets think longterm!
HR
That almost guarantees that we closed below 18 on Friday and possibly shoot up at least temporarily next week
Agree 100%. The only way a buyer would be able to give us what is acceptable is to give us tremendous royalties. That would eat into their cash flow in an unacceptable fashion.
Good!
Appears we are slave to overall market until tangible financial results materialize (which I have no doubt they will).
RE: BO; Certainly ups the ante.
But I am still in the GIA camp looking for the big bucks in 3-5 years, unless a BO results in equivilant present value profits..
BB I agree with your assessment of the potential as I have expressed several times before. The only snag could be if after all this work JT and his crew wanted to cash in and not have to endure the additional long hours and hard work that it would take to bring V to its maximum potential.
Inotherswords: double-talk and guessing. Why even bother with short term swings and predictions? Obviously theres not enough information and/or skill here to even do short term trading.
I'm holding long term for the triple digits BB and HDG and I predict.
Screw all this noise.
Could Amarin possibly somehow corner a large part of the market of EPA production? During the 202X years of maximum profitability they may be able to do this. The years following their patent expirations would see them controlling the supply to the generics AKA Teva. This assumes that they go it Alone of course.
Am I crazy here?
Got my doctor to prescribe Vasepa.
He prescribed 1gm capsules so I could ramp up to 4 gms gradually.
However Walgreens wanted $200 including insurance for 90 1 gram capsules.
I turned it down until I could get a sanity check from this group what do you all think?
Also I am relying on my Ameren Holdings to double or triple from here minimum to help in my quest to leave my job. I've had a successful career but due to many life situations I'm not where I should be
If you are over 71 and a half you'll have to take a minimum distribution. I'm still working at the age of 79 and I'm in my 401k but no minimum distribution is required since I'm still employed there. Also my employer plan allows me to leave it in the 401K when I leave except for the minimum distribution caveat.
PE I'm getting the distinct impression that your attitude toward the FDA mirrors your desire for revenge against those that have done wrong to you. It's garbage. V saves lives. The FDA will not commit suicide by ignoring that fact.
MP,
The only way to get the ultimate True Value long-term is with a CVR. BP would probably be unwilling to put up upfront what the Blockbuster status of this drug would be bring in cash flow wise in 9 years. But the CVR would give us royalties for those years without risk to the buyer.
Therefore I am all for cash and stock and CVR or stock and CVR
Well its fun and exciting and relevant, and without any other news what else?
Or we could all speculate on the outcome of the patent suits and ITC.