Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
It looks like Garrett's note will be settled by April 2019. I know many called it toxic and have talked down on him but I hope this clearly shows his character and positive influence he has on the company. We as shareholders are lucky to have his involvement in the company.
Page 17 on Q2 report:
10-Q out w/ Tri-way distribution info
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1488419/000114420418044689/tv499737_10q.htm
Tri-way Plan:
Agreed. I actually think they will file today and that should be viewed positively if they do. Not expecting much from the report. The dilution is still occurring but it has at least abated compared to earlier in the year. Hopefully it continues to decrease and eventually ceases soon. The stock price has been bottoming for the last 3 months even with dilution. I would expect to bounce on any good news since it's not priced in here and hopefully we'll never see the $.30's again.
I'll take your big boy bet. Short me 10,000 shares at .2665 if you want. Don't message me with excuses, or that you have to ask your Dad for money first. Just yes or no. And then please stop talking until end of year.
Lol a whole 1000 euros?! So much confidence. I didn't realize how much of a high roller you were..tell your employer to give you a raise!
Technically we've put in a double bottom with a higher low finally. The 100-day is at .39 cents which has been the long term resistance line in this downtrend. We may break that after the Q2 report is out as early as 2 weeks from now which could provide some bullish info on the Tri-way dividend. People may have forgotten or completely disregarded the company's timeline but they have recently stated Q3 is the goal for distributing Tri-way shares. We're currently in Q3.. There are also bank loans being negotiated to get Tri-way's trading business going as well in addition to the big syndicate loan. So take your bets and lets see what happens. If this company is ever remotely valued close to intrinsic valuation (which I believe it will once cash dividends begin getting paid out regularly) then it will be a multi bagger from these levels. We'll see!
Agree. I am still angry it took so long for the cash dividend policy. The company has always had an attitude of, it doesn't matter if the stock price is temporarily cheap right now because things will work out in the end once catalysts are hit and the stock price will fly. Well if you are forced to issue shares and the stock price is under $1 then yes, it matters..Myself (and other shareholders I imagine) have pushed for a cash dividend since at least 2 years ago but it fell to deaf ears including Dan. If they would have announced a nominal cash dividend 2 years ago (they could have easily paid this by pulling cash from decreased cap-ex) then Solomon could easily be issuing shares at a closer to normal valuation and dilution would be nominal. Now he's forced to issue at $.55 cents and everyone feels the pain. On top of that, you invite allegations (though proven untrue) that have been written on this board on a constant basis. Solomon, Dan, and the board are responsible for the dilution to shareholders due to their complacent attitude over the years. At least Garrett has talked some sense into Solomon since he is finally apparently listening to shareholders and others within the company. So hopefully the rest of the year will be accomplishing very common sense milestones that will push us many multiples higher from here. Convincing Solomon to listen has always been the hard part, not figuring out what plan of action to take, and it looks like that has finally been accomplished.
Wait, so you didn't believe the company's clear explanation and now realize you were just freaking out for nothing? How uncharacteristic of you...And I'm guessing your "now less so" concern has nothing to do with today's 20% up day.
Sorry I haven't responded to you because I blocked you. Fredrik told me if someone can get Solomon to stop printing shares there's a great case for SIAF and he is willing to put in a large effort to help the company again. Obviously that hasn't happened yet. This was a few months ago. And if you don't believe me why do you write to me constantly? Btw I still have you blocked so I won't see if you respond so don't take it personally..And I think emptyone is saying the loan is dead again? This is not the first time he's proclaimed this. He has shouted it was dead many times before only to have the company confirm it was still ongoing.
I only thought the loan would have been closed by now because they said it was in "advanced stages". I will assume it is in advanced stages until otherwise informed by the company through PR or Q report. Again, everyone thought they'd never announced a cash dividend and they did..now no one thinks they'll pay so all they have to do is pay. No one thinks there will be a Tri-way dividend announcement and we might get info or even an ex-div date in the Q2 report since they said, "The Company intends to issue the details of the course of action it seeks to implement in its Q2 2018 report, once the final details of the arrangement have been cleared and readied for implementation." You're welcome. Goodybe.
I believe G is. Solomon is apparently now listening to others within the company and other shareholders. Small steps are huge for Solomon. As I've said before, Fredrik will get involved if Solomon ends dilution and he understands how to get share prices up if Solomon is willing to listen. It doesn't take a genius to figure out how to get the stock price up to $10. The ideas are well known and easily achievable (meaning they don't have to find a cure for cancer or create the next iphone). The issue has always been simply getting Solomon to listen. Well if he is finally listening and does these things then I think there is huge opportunity going forward. We'll see. Lots of upcoming potential catalysts with financing, Tri-way dividend details and ex-dividend dates. The recent encouraging results and optimism with Pacific White Shrimp in indoor APRAS systems has largely been overlooked as well.
I know what you were saying. Redbull's buying into weakness which if you're trying to move in volume you kind of have to. I'm sure he understands the downside risk of doing so. And I wasn't saying I was expecting them to come back I just know it's a possibility and if they do I'll have an easier time getting my orders filled. As a trader anything is a possibility $.00 cents $100, it's all about controlling risk. I'm not "trading" this stock though, most unfortunately aren't either. So far we're up 6% on the day after 600K+ volume so I'd say he took advantage of the sell off so far.
I missed the volume. Can't even get filled in $.26 area now and the ask ran away. Maybe they'll come back later today or tomorrow if Traderfan is right. I know someone earlier spoke about an "Asian" investor. I think it was Andrew. I'm still surprised there hasn't been a filing yet. What are the chances Solomon has let this "Asian" buyer know how much dilution or "dumping" is left. If so, this guy will make a fortune, and really piss off a few investors.
I fully agree. I have already asked for the outstanding share count number Solomon gave Dan to calculate and formulate the cash dividend policy. It's important to keep things in perspective though. The price swings have been maybe 10 mil market cap swings, however, and I think it is most shareholders' goals, for Garrett too, to see the company command a multiple hundred million dollar market cap in the future. But that won't happen until other institutions come in. And they won't start building positions until they see catalysts achieved: ex-dividend date for Tri-way shares and cash dividend, financing closed, O/S count cap. They've made significant progress on the dividend parts, and we're apparently still in "advanced stages" for financing (though Garrett has been all too right in expecting this to take some time). We need to end dumping or at least provide clarity on what to expect.
You've been taking a lot of heat for being bullish on SIAF still. As long as the company delivers the Tri-way dividend this year like they already said they would the stock will rally significantly. As long as they announce the ex-dividend date for the cash dividend and eventually pay, like they've already announced they will do, the stock will rally significantly. As long as they follow through with their plan to end dilution, the stock will rally significnatly. So far we are still getting through the $.55 cent batch..which is why there has still been pressure on the stock. If they finally announce financing, the stock will rally.
The update on the Tri-way dividend, cash dividend, and share issuance policy are all new from this year and more detailed than ever before. The problem is the market doesn't believe management because of previously missed deadlines. I'm not sure if there is a lower bar set but all SIAF has to do is deliver and when they do the stock will rally like crazy. That's all it comes down to. It is amazing how the daily share price affects peoples' odds of management delivering. On an up week they will deliver and everything is awesome. On a down week the world is ending and they're all liars.
If you don't think they will deliver, sell. If you do, then buy or hold. We will find out soon enough though. The reward for them simply following through is enormous at this point but to each their own.
Depends on your holding time line. Short term 1-2 weeks maybe moderately risky, long term >6 months, relatively safe. But if you think about it from the short side perspective, as a short seller one of the main risks is catalyst risk which is enormous in this stock due to ongoing financing talks. And everyone can say the loans will never come or they should have come months ago etc. etc. (they said the same thing about the cash dividend policy announcement) but these are from people who have never done business in Asia and management themselves is saying they are still ongoing and close so it doesn't matter until it does.
If one's timeline is relatively long, one could buy this at .30 cents which is showing short term support and because of the 33% ($.10) dividend yield, you'd be "in the money" until $.20 cents. As long as shares keep hitting the market the stock will be under pressure but there are clear buyers absorbing the shares and from a technical perspective it has never resisted such selling pressure better than this which is likely due to the cash dividend bringing in these new buyers. People have speculated we're near the end of the last batch that was given out and if that is the case the price should move up quickly. The company clarified their new share issuance policy going forward (once this batch is done with). Hopefully with financing closing they will be able to give us a hard outstanding share count number.
Higher high close. I look at closes not intraday which is why I said $.44 but to each their own.
100-day is at $.46 right now. Starting to flatten out. It seems like we've finally put in a higher low for the first time in a long time which is great. It's been years since a higher high. In order to make a higher high on the next leg up we will have to break $.44 cents. Any news would easily break us through that but we may also trade there without news. Once that happens I believe it will be a long series of higher highs and higher lows. With the Tri-way dividend in Q3, cash dividend in Q4, and profits turning around starting this Q1 already the fundamentals are supporting the improved technicals we're seeing. Dilution has backed off the last few weeks so let's hope we are done with dilution though I wish they'd give further guidance than what they stated in the last Q: "The Company has adopted austere measures to reduce its dependence on equity funding by approaching it as the exception rather than the rule when it comes to determining which modes of operation are necessary to maintain the Company’s outlook over the next two years." Financing is priced in as bonuses here but I still expect it to be eventually secured.
Very technically constructive so far but still has some work to do.
I agree with everything you've posted recently. Obviously there have been mistakes from management. We have shorts that claim the company is fraudulent which has been refuted several times due to those who have been on investor tours on company assets, those who have business relations in China and have verified SIAF's business through customers, those who have spoken directly with Tony and other operation managers, the company paying out cash dividends for years before, as well as with the F-share etc. etc..
We finally have a cash dividend policy which everyone argued would never happen. As RD pointed out it looks like the $.55 batch of shares is finally done hitting the market since it's been months since not having an increase in O/S for this long. August, we'll probably get an X-date for the Tri-way distribution as Dan has figured out a way to distribute it "almost tax-free".
And technically speaking it looks like $.34 is the new higher low, and we've never had a higher low in years. To make a higher high it looks like we need to take out $.44 which might actually coincide with the 100-day by the time we take it out since the 100-day is at $.48 right now and has been the very long term trend that has yet to be broken as Redbull and traderfan pointed out. Technically, the stock has never acted this positively in quite some time so it looks like we've finally hit a turning point and bottomed. For most shareholders they sold just because they were sick of it going down. Well if it starts to go up now we'll get some buyers again, especially given the improvement in fundamentals and now getting paid a significant yield to wait. Cash dividend was the first step towards getting institutional investors so I'm glad they did it.
Sending an email to see if I can get an answer. Dan always claims they're restricted in some way due to ongoing loans or other excuses/events etc.. Nisse shouldn't be though so who knows. We'll see if they listen and pick up some shares. Their little vote of confidence won't mean much anyways IMO. The fact that they already stated they will use equity financing as a last resort is positive.
Yea I'm curious to see who's been buying and why they've been so aggressive. They've absorbed close to 2 million shares with almost no price movement which is impressive. Obviously there's a 27% cash dividend yield at these prices but I wouldn't be surprised if the buyers know there isn't much dilution left (otherwise why not just wait) because most people agree this stock will move significantly higher when dilution stops. So if someone has information as to when this is, it would be incredible information. Earnings wise we seem to have finally started turning around so the cash flow situation should improve from here. Obviously it will improve significantly with the loan for Tri-way and getting CA back in business etc. but even if we can just finish with the dumping of shares that Solomon had to issue recently then we can move up. For Solomon or Dan to not foresee such a ridiculous situation is beyond incompetent so I would support emptyone and Garrett, if he gets onboard, in any way to influence Solomon to find a replacement soon and step down as some sort of operating officer. If the buyer stays under 5% they won't have to file but I would expect a filing soon.
Well I wouldn't believe it until I saw it in the market but someone is clearly in there. I just question what the rush is for him to absorb the shares at such a tight price. It's almost like they agreed on the price. Why not make them sell at a lower price and buy from the shorts/scared shareholders that sell? The only reason I can think of is because they know how much is left and want it all. And they must know there isn't anything behind this last batch, otherwise again, why be so aggressive right now? Why not just wait? If they are a long term investor the dividend yield could be good enough for them but still, I'm not convinced that's all that's affecting their decision making. Unfortunately this stock is notorious for giving away privileged information. Just look at the price action the day before any catalyst, even this last cash dividend announcement. I'm just pissed we all may not know what this buyer may clearly know.
Does anyone know who's buying? Andrew, you mentioned a potential Chinese buyer? The only reason to be sitting at this bid continuously and aggressively buying hundreds of thousands of shares is if you know these are the last cheap shares you are going to be able to get. Otherwise why not simply back off for a week or two and let it fall? Wouldn't surprise me if the buyer has info about this..info that we unfortunately don't have. I guess we'll just have to wait for the 13G to see who's buying.
What do you make of the 400K bid? Seems strange to me honestly. There's ways of not telegraphing how much you're trying to buy. I think we'll know more once it gets hit. What are the chances it's just some retail guy trying to invest $160K all in one order? Regardless there's other serious buyers accumulating here. Unfortunately the supply is still there..
If we can do some work here in the low 40's this week and move up from there next week I'll get very bullish short term. We haven't had a positive MACD signal in quite some time (which it looks like we'll get tomorrow) and the times we did were off of very aggressive spikes, likely short covering. This looks like the first sign of actual sustained accumulation I've seen in over a year or 2.
I agree with the 100-day, but there is money to be made from $.41 to $.6 if you can be liquid enough to not actually be the one to push it there which is difficult in a $15M market cap stock, but I'm sure there's some that can take advantage of it. The difficult part with SIAF is that there is so much variance in liquidity from day to day, week to week. Some days you can be trying to buy $10K and can't get any shares without going at the ask and having it run away from you every time you hit it, and then when there's dilution your bid gets gobbled up like it's nothing. No one knows when the Solomon spigot is going to get turned off but technically speaking it seems to be drying up, or the cash dividend policy has helped absorb it and if that's the case, then these buyers will run out of shares to buy without pushing up the price very significantly when the $.55 batch is through (which might have already happened, fingers crossed). And I've always said, once the price starts actually moving upwards, people will buy because people love greedily chasing price up and fearfully selling down.
Ha, and touche. Technical nightmare for anyone trying to go long, technical wetdream for the shorts.
Traderfan? Redbull? Any other technical guys out there? I would be surprised if you guys aren't buying right now even as bearish as you were just a few days ago. If we can start closing above this 50-day, then the 50-day will actually start acting as support and not a ceiling for the first time in I don't know how long for this stock. I think we definitely have an institution (or at least a couple big buyers) patiently picking up shares. Not to mention the fact that the dumping of the .55 shares could be over now (and hopefully Solomon is actually done as well but who knows). Or perhaps it's just handla absorbing all these shares...(just kidding)
Keep in mind this stock has been a technical nightmare for over 2 years until now!
There is definitely a big buyer absorbing the dilution hitting the market. They're being patient with their buying which they should. Looks like a big fish the way the orders are hitting. I wonder who it is. I wonder how much of the $.55 batch is left out there. Need to get into the 40's for any short term upside. Volume for the month of May alone has been pretty incredible.
The point of the document was to show what they intend to do. And they've already started executing. They chose the AGM because they thought the loan would be closed by then and they'd be able to do everything there but there were obviously delays. They don't need an AGM to announce these things as we just saw with the recently announced cash dividend policy.
They said dividend policy in this document..and now we just got one. They said formulation of share count in that document..and we will get one once the loan finally closes. So now do you admit that "finally ending diluton" is not just "BS!!". And yes I am very unhappy with the dilution which is why I wish they'd close the loan soon or make Tri-way repay some of the debt ASAP. It's not BS they just need to get it done.
Quote from Solomon on CC in regards to Tri-way debt owed to SIAF: "There is approximately $14 million in outstanding debt owed from Tri-way to the company. The terms and conditions of repayment to be determined once Tri-way has acquired the means from funding needed to carry forward of its development operation."
I don't think he misspoke because Dan confirmed this as well. Regardless, I support you and empty on demanding Tri-way repay some of this debt. I know Garrett doesn't know why they won't repay debt either. Like I said, I think Solomon probably made some gentleman's agreement to let the debt float until he closes financing, which is totally unacceptable when we need the money to stop dilution.
I'll do my best to decipher your tantrum post..
In response to RD, I am talking about debt owed to SIAF from Tri-way. Both Solomon and Dan have directly stated $14M due to SIAF from Tri-way. Solomon repeated this again just days ago on the CC. That's why I repost quotes from the CC because people directly contradict what was stated just days ago. And if Tri-way gets a loan for $100M USD from the syndicate banks, you really don't think they will end dilution permanently? Solomon has talked about doing this once financing was in place before; The problem is they have not closed financing as of yet. He already stated a new 2019 share issuance cap on the CC though. Obviously financing would lead to a 2018 cap as well.
http://www.marketwired.com/press-release/sino-agro-food-inc-schedules-2017-annual-general-meeting-agenda-items-include-dividend-2236282.htm
"1) Adoption of a share buyback program,
2) Adoption of a dividend policy,
3) Formulation of outstanding share count guidelines"
We got the dividend policy already. They didn't rule out share buybacks in the future when cash situation improves but stated dividends are better than buybacks as of now. The next step is putting a cap on share count AKA "finally ending dilution". So how exactly is this misinformation or "BS!!" when it was laid out in their PR and has been stated directly by Solomon?
And I don't know what "hausse posts" you're talking about but yes I believed (as well as many others including management) that the loan would be closed by now. There have been many delays but I still believe it will be closed.
It's not strange. There's a 25% dividend yield on the stock currently. Everyone knows the potential upsides: Tri-way continuing to grow well, loan (2 others beside syndicate loan), finally ending dilution etc. It's just that now when you buy shares you get paid 25% on your investment to wait for these milestones to take place.
"The account receivable of CA’s C&S services is totaling to US$52,478,526, wherein $3,413,141 lies within an aging period of 31 - 90 days, $5,775,840 within 120 days to one year, and $43,289,545 of over one year.
The $43,289,545 in outstanding receivables was settled by Tri-way through the issuance of shares, comprising 12.71% equity holding in Tri-way. Further information of this exchange can be found in the Company’s 2017 10-K."
That's from page 19
All I am telling you is what has been stated by Dan:
1) Fair Value of interest retained in TRW is $81,367,997 (23.89%)
2) Equity interest in TRW (Unconsolidated Equity Investee) is $40,788,236 + 2,501,309 = $43,289,545 (12.71%)
3) Total above is $124,657,542 (36.6%).
4) In addition, TRW has outstanding loans payable to SIAF of $14,438,797 to be paid in cash (no fixed repayment terms / no interest).
5) Also, there is the share of post-acquisition accumulated profits of TRW owed to SIAF of $5,262,524 that eventually will be paid in cash.