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Not sure why there was so much confusion about the Tri-way distribution ex-date. The PR clearly stated the Record date on Oct. 31st. Which means ex-date is today; Which means the last day to buy shares to get the Tri-way dividend was yesterday.
I'm surprised but it's good to see how much strength there is on OTC right now. It's amazing how the price can hold up when there's no dilution/dumping. Looks like we could be completely done with dilution as well with the cash dividend coming up soon. I'd expect the cash dividend dates to be announced in November with the record date in December. Any financing news is just icing on top. Today was just another example of the company following through. As long as this continues shareholders will be happy.
Another answer to your question about who is buying here now is potentially people who didn't care much for Tri-way shares, and thought there would be more of a drop after the ex-date and want to pick up shares.
Can you give me a copy of the "What institutions can and cannot buy" handbook when you get a chance? I must have missed that chapter.
First of all hedge funds can pretty much buy whatever they want in most cases. There is no rule on not being able to buy stock unless it crosses $5...Then there's small/micro cap funds that specialize in stocks with low market cap valuations. Then there's registered investment advisors who can individually purchase it within their client's accounts. I can go on..Fidelity/Vanguard aren't the only institutions in town. If you don't care for what I say, just put me on ignore instead of replying back with nonsense.
I said for a $20M market cap stock bull flag could be from retail or institutional. In multi billion dollar stocks, it usually comes from several institutions, however.
As a separate statement which had nothing to do with technicals, I said I know for a fact institutions are now looking at SIAF.
For those that don't know, the stock is experiencing a classic bull flag and is very bullish technically speaking. When a stock rises 60% within a matter of days there are many people who will quickly take profits. However, when that selling is then met by a wall of buying it fails to "fill the gap" and moves sideways in an orderly fashion. Once the quick profit takers are gone and supply dries up, the stock aggressively breaks out to new highs. Obviously, catalysts can help it break out as well. Bull flags are most commonly seen when large institutional investors are acquiring stakes within the company. With a $20M market cap stock like this, however, this price action could come from retail investors as well.
What people need to be asking themselves is why are these buyers still willing to pay 60% more than just a few days ago to acquire shares? What's the rush? More times than none, it is because they "know" something, either a catalyst etc. but simply put, they are willing to pay 60% more than just a few days ago because they know there is still much more profit ahead. Based on comments and buying here recently I would not be surprised if we get very good news shortly. Time will tell.
I can say for a fact that institutions are beginning to look at this stock. FYI
Nights, any idea when you expect the cash dividend announcement? If they pay in December I'd expect it very soon.
Trip, last conference call they discussed 4 loans. The first three were stand-by letters of credit (SBLC) of $1M which will materialize first, and then a second for $3M to close some time before year end and then a larger SBLC of $10M sometime during the first part of 2019.
"The first sources are stand-by letters of credit which we’ve been working on diligently for some time now and we now have positive feedback...In this respect, after Solomon’s recent meetings with the SBLC providers and the lending banks the company is rather confident of funds being made available on approximately this schedule."
And of course the 4th loan is the $100M syndicate loan:
"In addition to talking to the SBLC lenders last week, I also spent a good deal of time last week with the lead banker of the large syndicated loan we were referring to in the past...After addressing all these concerns over the past month and after working proposed terms to accommodate the interests of all parties we regained positive footing. In the past month we have found a more willing lead banker, one with greater China specific experience, and we found a means to provide acceptable collateral. During my meeting last week we confirmed that we have invested with the proper network who agreed to provide land as the collateral. With this understanding, which are not yet finalized in writing, we believe we are in place to close on a loan of approximately $100M USD."
Financing which some of speculated may be announced very soon will take care of the dilution problem once and for all and once the cash dividend ex-date is officially announced, there will be very few sellers and many new buyers.
We're just starting to see the situation I described earlier where a flood of buyers will start coming in at the same time the incessant supply side is evaporating. You tried buying $2K and couldn't do it without pushing up the price. And we just got a raise in O/S so we know the supply side hasn't even been cut off yet, though I'm sure it will any week now. Now imagine someone who wants to take a $1 million position or even $100K...Good luck..The average retail investor doesn't even know about this stock. Once we're above $.48, which could be by tomorrow, it'll show up on many more screeners as a stock finally above its 200-day moving average bringing in many more traders. And once the cash dividend ex-date is announced the dividend yield will show up on stock screeners as well and be "official". Even at $1 most new people will pile in because it'll be a company with growing earnings (finally) with 1 P/E ratio, paying a 10% cash dividend. Obviously, any financing will greatly increase earnings growth and share count reduction. FOMO (fear of missing out) is about to kick in really hard here..
If the company gave news tomorrow, do you think it would be in relation to the share account, buybacks, cash dividend, or financing?
What kind of news do you think we could hear soon? Cash dividend dates, financing news?
Thanks. What would ever make you feel more comfortable to ever buy back in? A certain price, certain news, cash dividend, etc?
Have you already sold all your shares on this bounce or did you sell before?
Clearly the buyer just wanted shares today and didn't mind paying up for them. No doubt this stock is historically leaky so hopefully that's a good sign. I guess we'll find out after the market close today or tomorrow.
We don't even need good news for the stock to go up, just lack of dilution (which we haven't seen for years now) but will likely start seeing before December, assuming it hasn't already started. If you read what I post, you've heard me repeatedly say what you just stated.
I'm curious who has been picking up all the shares. It definitely seems pre-arranged since normally when millions of shares are dumped, the stock price plummets whereas it has held and built a very strong base the past 4 months. And I doubt all of it has been from retail, although it very well could be. What is this now a triple bottom at $.25? With the 100-day only 4 cents away we're very close to a major trend reversal which I would expect the Tri-way distribution announcement very shortly will easily take us through. When's your guess on the announcement?
Most of the people on this board don't agree with me that the price can move very fast even after catalysts ($100M loan, dilution end, Tri-way distribution, cash dividend) are hit within the next few months but I strongly believe as the price moves up it will actually get people to buy more (hard to comprehend for most here who buy when things go lower but there are many people who buy when things go higher, just look at momentum stocks, pot stocks, cryptos etc); Just like how the price decline caused many people to sell SIAF.
As I said before, it's either another "China fraud" and should be valued at $0-10M market cap (basically here already), or they prove its real by paying out cash flows and ending dilution where it should then be worth hundreds of millions and be a 10+ bagger from here. No in between IMO.
Seriously? Why don't you lend the company $4 Million of your own money then KS...what a ridiculous statement. This company would be completely lost without Garrett at this point.
Empty, real question. Can you put together a realistic plan that you think SIAF/TRW should follow? Personally, I always wanted SIAF to 1) pay a cash dividend 2) receive debt financing to end equity financing permanently 3) distribute Tri-way shares 4) reduce capital expenditures
1) They announced a cash dividend to be paid in about 3 months now
2) A couple weeks ago they told us about all the financing options they have in the pipeline including the $100M syndicate loan and essentially told us dilution will end in 2019 and provided what guidance they could for the rest of the year but that it would be over by December.
You can private message me if you have those kinds of questions but here is what Garrett publicly said on this board in the link below. That is essentially his long term plan for the company which is already taking place with the upcoming Tri-way preferred share distribution that should be any week now since they said "a few weeks" in the last quarterly report, as well as the cash dividend, and restriction of capital expenditures.
I agree with Garrett that these are venture capital type returns on your capital at these prices. The selling like we've seen today likely comes from dilution from settling payables which they dump onto the market, but on this past conference call they said we would likely be done with this dumping in Q4 and that this is the tail end, and definitely before the cash dividend announcement likely to be paid out in December which will hopefully be announced earlier.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=140179124
You can also read all his other posts here:
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/Profile.aspx?user=171872
There is always risk following other investors in on an investment so I would do your own due diligence but keep in mind he has an enormous amount to lose compared to others and hasn't sold a single share. He has also provided a loan to the company of around $4 million dollars of his own money earlier this year. He is expected to get back his loan plus interest some time in 2019.
He hasn't sold any and told me he doesn't plan on selling until Chinese people stop eating fish. He's an insider so change in ownership would have to be reported to the SEC by filing Form 4 within two business days, unless I'm mistaken.
Not sure if you saw this morning but the ask opened at $.35 cents before they started dumping shares again. There will be days in the future where they pull the ask up like this and dilution won't be there to meet buyers' demand and bring the price back down so if they want shares they'll have to hit the thin ask. That's when some serious FOMO will kick in.
We had over 300K shares traded today and closed higher. We have many people aggressively/daily pushing a false narrative against the company (I'll let you speculate their intentions, who's financing them, and what that means about their speculative position in the company and how that could affect the stock price if it begins moving higher). We've been putting in a very strong base here the past 4 months (thanks to the cash dividend announcement no doubt) and the stock is only a few cents away from an official long term trend reversal technically speaking. I have repeatedly heard that the stock price won't move up quickly when/if it does but I couldn't disagree more.
I find it very likely we could see a scenario where at the same time dilution ends (AKA enormous supply finally evaporates) we will simultaneously get very positive news from loans, TRW preferred share distribution, cash dividends, etc (AKA new influx of buying interest); Do the math on what happens to the price of a thinly traded stock where enormous supply evaporates and demand suddenly jumps. This is a $12M market cap stock. It would not be an extraordinary case if within a year it was treated as a $120M market cap stock after catalysts mentioned above. Most people who only know S&P 500 stocks don't understand how quickly/aggressively and common it is for stocks to go up 10X in less than a year (particularly if they're starting from a $12M market cap).
CC Highlights Part 4:
In regards to the upcoming Tri-way Distribution:
"The company has been in communication with Tri-way on a concept plan. That allows common shareholders eligible to receive a dividend to receive the 18.3% cumulative ownership in Tri-way that does not impose a tax liability to either company, SIAF or TRW. The outline of the distribution plan will be made public by Tri-way in the next few weeks. Essentially we believe that there will be 2 scheduled distributions whereby in each distribution, SIAF shareholders, in exchange for TRW debt held by SIAF, will receive convertible preferred shares of TRW. In an amount equivalent to $3.41/share of one common share of TRW. The number of preferred shares to be received in book entry form to be based on the number of SIAF held by each eligible shareholder as on two separate record dates. The dates of which shall be announced by TRW along with possibly their conversion dates announced simultaneously. The broad terms have been agreed upon, I should mention, largely now the execution and announcement is in Tri-way’s hands, expected like I just mentioned to be announced within the next few weeks. Tri-way’s audited value though I want to mention has increased in the latest 2017 audit from what was the initial value at $3.41/share and now stands at $3.85/share. This means that depending on the exact number of shares outstanding and a few other minor factors the first tranche of 12.71 million TRW shares approximately, will be distributed to SIAF shareholders and will provide SIAF shareholders with an additional $1.32 to $1.4 of Tri-way book value for each share of SIAF based on Tri-way’s current audit. What we are saying is that there will be an approximately 1:3 distribution. After reducing the share count by shares which are not eligible to receive a Tri-way dividend we presume we will have about a 1:3 distribution. So for every 3 shares of SIAF, you will receive 1 share of Tri-way...The plan remains to IPO Tri-way on the Hong Kong exchange in 2020."
http://www.sinoagrofood.com/science/research/update_l-vannamei-research-af4.html
For those that missed the update: "Successful Preliminary Trial of Pacific White Shrimp in APRAS"
This is what was stated about dilution in 2019.
"what the company feels comfortable committing to at this time based on overall financial performance is limiting share issuance in 2019 to a maximum 1.5 million for normal corporate incentives."
"But we are at the tail-end of issuance for other payables which we expect will cease by 2019."
They also spoke about the cash dividend payout in Q4, coming from operational cash flows, not from any form of equity dilution. They specifically stated this.
Why haven't you sold your shares yet? Why are you still holding them? If you decide to remain a shareholder then I'd suggest you actually take the time to listen to the conference call.
Empty..You were proven completely wrong how many times now and just keep going? Can you please find someone in your life to rant to instead of posting on this board without adding any value whatsoever?
A few of your gem quotes below:
CC Highlights Part 3:
Update on $100M Syndicated Loan
• "In addition to talking to the SBLC lenders last week, I also spent a good deal of time last week with (an investor?) and the lead banker of the large syndicated loan we were referring to in the past...The type of security indicated to collateralize the loan changed over time... After addressing all these concerns over the past month and after working proposed terms to accommodate the interests of all parties we regained positive footing. In the past month we have found a more willing lead banker, one with greater China specific experience, and we found a means to provide acceptable collateral. During my meeting last week we confirmed that we have invested with the proper network who agreed to provide land as the collateral. With this understanding, which are not yet finalized in writing we believe we are in place to close on a loan of approximately $100M USD…However, with this lead bank and with these terms and conditions agreed we look forward to sharing milestones towards closing as they become documented."
As always, don't listen to rumors from individuals on this board who have repeatedly claimed that "the loan is dead", even after being proven wrong repeatedly...
The delays were because 1) the lead banker who was in charge of this loan left the bank as a career change leaving Solomon to start over with the new banker. 2) Collateral issues with the loan
Both these issues have been resolved and I still expect the loan to close.
CC Highlight Part 2:
Both Solomon and Dan reiterated their confidence in the cash dividend coming from positive operational income and to be paid out in Q4 2018.
• "We do feel we will have positive cash flow in the mid to later part of the 4th quarter."
Garrett $6M Loan:
• "Yes, we will not be paying the $6M loan by issuing shares. We aim to repay the entire $6M Principal and Interest on or before July of 2019. That’s something that has been negotiated here recently. The funds will come from one of a couple sources. The first sources are stand-by letters of credit which we’ve been working on diligently for some time now and we now have positive feedback. In essence these loans would refinance the $6M loan so that the repayment requires no new issuance of shares. This approach is moving with our targeted time frame, expecting the first loan of $1M to materialize first then a second SBLC loan of $3M to close some time before year end and in term we are targeting the closing of a larger SBLC loan of $10M sometime during the first part of 2019. In this respect, after Solomon’s recent meetings with the SBLC providers and the lending banks the company is rather confident of funds being made available on approximately this schedule. This is the surest way that we are going to be able to secure funds to repay the prior $6M loan on schedule without relying on other newly initiated programs or organic cash flow improvement. However, we also know the best way to fund repayments will be from cash flows generated from the initiatives such as those at AF3 or the new Tri-way Trading operation or the HU plantation initiative etc. If these projects do generate sufficient incremental cash flows within the repayment schedule then the stand-by letter of credit funds would either not be drawn down or we would probably likely use them for another purpose that we’ve already started to initiate. It should be noted though that in addition to the $6M loan that we do have legacy obligations remaining and the processes I’ve just described in repaying the $6M loan will facilitate all debt repayment in a prioritized manner."
• "Please realize that managing cash flow in the short term while past obligations are wound down is foremost in management priorities. We are quite confident that the downturn created by conditions necessitating the closing of the abattoir among other factors created a short cash flow that is temporary and nearing an end, other than normal corporate circumstances like stock options."
CC Highlights Part 1:
"We have signed a 5-year joint venture agreement with a 3rd party who will bear the expenses to develop approximately 70 acres of various fruit trees and to distribute end product. JHST will receive 25% of profits. Towards the end of Q2, 40% of the acres have been planted. We are encouraged by this today and believe that our willingness to adapt to changing market conditions…will drive significant cash flow beginning in the 4th Quarter."
CTO Tony Ostrowski on Tri-way:
• "We plan to obtain detailed operational data with scientifically based comparisons to improve both biological and economic performance of the farm. Importantly, we expect these efforts to result in significant sales volume which is yet to be achieved at AF4. We are encouraged by recent research and development results, some of which are now available on our website. We will provide periodic summaries of subsequent trials on our website as well. A separate research and development team of South Korean experts have been working on White Shrimp culture in high salinity at Aquafarm 1. After 2 trials, growth after 31 days from PL10, or 10-day old post larvae is exceeding that which we have obtained previously in the nursey."
• "During the last few months we have also been developing a trading division for Tri-way in Hong Kong. This division will trade in seafood and other seafood items for sale in Hong Kong, Macau and China markets. This new business has been progressing smoothly, and we are cautiously optimistic at targeting first annual sales exceeding $100 Million dollars commencing later in September. We expect to generate gross margins averaging 17%. Shareholders will be kept updated on the progress of the trading and aquafarming divisions quarterly as successful implementation even at initial ramp up will have a material positive impact on Tri-way’s results."
• "Tri-way achieved net profit of $16.2M in the first 6 months of 2018 contributing $5.2M to SIAF. Most of the income came from Aquafarm 1-3 and other ODRAS farms. Fully utilizing AF4 capacity will improve Tri-way’s bottom line. Therefore we are optimistic that the new operational plans at our aquafarming and trading division will lead Tri-way to increasingly better years starting in 2019. A final note, the production scheme planned at AF4 is targeted to enhance cash flow which will support CA final development at AF4 and AF5 and all other planned aquafarming issues."
ValueInvestor01 can you please have this debate somewhere else? It is hilarious reading about how you think technical analysis is like palm reading. How old are you and how many millions have you made/manage to claim only value investing works and TA doesn't?
I personally know countless investment managers and traders who have made millions using technical analysis over many years. There are other many well known who have traded through bull and bear markets for over 30+ years, do you think all of them are just lucky? Just because you do not understand TA does not mean it doesn't work..Look up Ed Seykota, Ed Thorp, Mark Minervini, Tom Basso, Dan Zanger, Paul Tudor Jones etc. Go to their mansions (if security lets you past the gate) and tell them TA doesn't work...I'm sure you'd give them a good laugh.
Also look up Stanley Druckenmiller who broke the Bank of England with George Soros who uses technical analysis. Druckenmiller didn't have a single down year in 30+ years with average returns of over 30%.
Not sure what "filling up" means in terms of # of shares for you but if there's not another batch, then good luck finding the volume. As I said before, the 650K has already been dumped IMO. I think it's time for market makers to pull the string here and some FOMO buying to start if we can over $.36 on some good news. The 100-day is now flat. Let's see if we can break through.
The market was up because they printed the new O/S meaning they have already issued the 650K shares. Just look at the volume on Aug 16, 17 and 20. You said it looked like retail selling but it was just the 650K. That being said, there can absolutely be more shares printed but it has been dying off recently, and to RD's point it makes sense to stop soon before the Tri-way ex-date. What dumping we have seen very recently has been absorbed nicely. Technicals improve by the day as we've put in a very nice base here over the past 3 months. It looks like we may build until around $.35 and I'd bet some sort of news (Tri-way ex-dividend date, financing, annual meeting layout w/ O/S cap, cash ex-date) takes us through and then we're off to the races.
Snow for once I agree. I believe $2-5 is very easily achievable in less than a year if dilution has stopped now. Those who claim this is not possible are clearly not experienced in markets and just how quickly stocks can move especially when starting from $12M market cap...(also probably the same people who never thought the stock could go this low). If we become a $120M company, which is nothing, that's a 10 bagger. All it takes is credibility and sentiment change all of which the cash dividend and Tri-way dividend should do by the end of the year. Once you have legitimized the cash flows then you can start talking valuation, EPS growth, etc.
RD, I've spoken to the auditor last month and he verified exactly what the company told us. Resignation was purely due to business reasons (he didn't want to have U.S. clients because of the expense, so his firm resigned from his two U.S. clients, one of which included SIAF) and he even specifically stated it had nothing to do with an audit issue.
Of course this investigative journalist failed the simple task of getting in contact with the auditor (or maybe the auditor didn't want to speak with him) and failed to mention the perfectly reasonable explanation for resigning. I think its clear what he is trying to imply by leaving this important info/explanation out and I think based on his last few articles his credibility is very obvious.. We'll see if this Undercurrentnews writer does a write up on SIAF once they close financing. Last we heard, Tony has been having success with Pacific White Shrimp and they failed to report on that as well. The way he writes makes it almost seem like he's a pissed off shareholder as well.
Technically speaking it looks like we're still just consolidating here which is positive. There's strong support $.25-.27 here. Hopefully we're done dumping shares and these guys will have to start hitting the ask to get filled. We're closer than we've ever been to a major trend reversal here and once the trend becomes upwards for once, market makers will pull the string and make it very hard to buy here. We're not there yet but I suspect with the big catalysts ahead (Tri-way ex-dates in a few weeks, cash dividend ex-dates, CC, potential financing) we'll fully reverse the trend and get things going.
I think there's only about 150K shares left they have to dump from the 350 batch (speculation). But there are clearly new buyers at the bid that can absorb it so they're being patient. Not going to call a bottom quite yet but we're a few cents away from breaking out. Amazing how technicals align perfectly with fundamentals sometimes...
Relax RD. Once the first cash dividend is paid out in a couple of months it will immediately legitimize the company and their commitment to shareholder value. The average investor can't visit operations/talk to management directly to do their due diligence so the majority look at the price to determine whether a company is a fraud or not. We are all too familiar with the unfortunate events that brought the price down..but things have finally started to turn around.
After the ex-dividend is announced and paid, new investors who have never even heard of SIAF yet, will look at a stock that finally has a rising stock price, still has a high cash dividend yield even at $1 and is still very undervalued relative to all metrics P/B, PE, etc. Valuation doesn't matter when people think it's a fraud. Period. As soon as you legitimize the company, which they will in a matter of months, people will seriously look at the company including institutional investors who I expect to step up once the ex-date is announced shortly.
This is a company that is profitable, returning to growth, distributing preferred shares which dividends can be paid through, and cash dividends. On top of that is of course additional contracts/financing finally closing to increase the growth rate.
I don't know what your 2018/19 EPS estimates are but do you think such a company should command at least a 10 PE ratio, and if so what price would that put it at? Incredibly asymmetric risk/reward scenario here. I see no better investment with such an enormous upside. And the enormous upside is not dependent on creating a cure for cancer, but simply by following through on the plan they have already laid out which is being guided by Garrett who is incredibly incentivized to see it followed through accordingly. The information in the Q2 report provided updates and very strong indications that the plan is indeed being followed through.
Yes, they are going to lease out existing assets to increase cash flow. It's about time. And they are continuing to limit capex. 30% dividend yield at current levels just from the cash dividend, not including Tri-way preferred shares.
10-Q Page 7:
Were you the high-roller the other day? Have you saved up enough allowance money to sell me shares now? Something tells me you'll be on the bid tomorrow though..And now added to the list of blocked..
They just reiterated the cash dividend in Q4, gave details of the Tri-way distribution with full details being released by Tri-way in a few weeks, and Garrett is now going to settle his note in an all cash deal (do the math on how this is going to happen) through installment payments from now until April 2019, instead of the previous dilutive settlement agreement. So why don't you just sell all your shares tomorrow if you think things are so hopeless and avoid these dividends and any potential positive future announcements then? What is making you hold onto your shares?