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Apparently the subjects on the deal were not achievable, or hard to achieve.
Is the memo available? I'd love to see the deal structure they turned down.
May be worth re-entering with a few bucks if I see a situation developing.
For what exactly? What do you hope to accomplish? Suppose you vote down this offer, then what? I want to know your general expectations in this scenario if you're kind enough to share them.
I remember jousting with you a bit over your optimism on this stock, and I regret to inform you I still feel the same way. I'm re-visiting the board to evaluate a special situation play, which I can't really detect here.
What is the current bull thesis on this stock? Hope in a Chinese company that hasn't extended an offer? Twisting ICL for more?
Re-reading my post seems negative, so I'm hoping you can change my mind.
Looking forward to your reply,
Robot.
Who will come with another bid? Who can get this thing financed? The release mentioned they couldn't get financing without massive dilution.
I think the number of groups that are even capable of putting a bid in is low, and therefore there is a low probability of it.
I am out this morning with a tidy profit. I hope the majority of you are not too badly burned by this deal.
Goodbye all and good luck.
Wow. Hopefully we get some competition here. I figured it would be a $1.00 - $1.25 buyout down the road.
It puts a nice floor on SP, and secures a tidy little profit for me.
I'm watching for it.
I think the only thing that would make this unrealistic is the removal of financing risk. Who knows when that will occur (don't anyone bother repeating what mgmt says, I know). I am baffled by the terms sheets still being in the discussion stage.
In the meantime I'm guessing we chug along btw 0.25 and 0.45. There might be trading opportunities.
The only thing that really concerns me is the cash position between now and first draw. It could create a situation where we have a comparatively weak bargaining position. Worst case scenario the well runs dry and we get forced into a transaction we don't want.
I agree with everything you said. So I wonder why people react so strongly to the 20s prediction when our case is apparent.
Right. Never mind that whole time value of money non-sense.
Be honest, you don't know what is going to happen. You are speculating, at least to a degree. Part of that is not tying your assets up in plays that aren't going to move for long periods of time.
There have been closes below 0.30 in Oct, Nov, and in Feb this year. Are you confident we won't drift down again?
I don't believe the 0.07 predictions in the past, but 20s seems reasonable. I've actually been waiting in anticipation of it.
Thanks for the reply.
I'm talking about a financing deal when I mentioned 6 months. They aren't doing that in the middle of the desert. I don't see mobilizing equipment and materials for construction being a critical issue here.
I haven't done my homework on the output issue you mentioned, but I do know about it. Was there a huge design change to the plant? If not, why the delay? We're financing the construction.
I'm starting to get that feeling when lenders are dickering around and making demands. It usually means they've lost their enthusiasm or have the upper hand and are trying to exhaust the borrower into concessions. Maybe I'm wrong, but if the lending market is competing for this project you expect to see less demanding lenders. They also don't have a problem walking away from deals they (or their bosses/board/etc) don't like. It happens a lot.
I've read all presentations for a long time. They are not reliable. There is also a lot of big picture scenario talk about all of the different ways they could structure this. The schedule does not feel solid to me at all, and has unfavourable schedule variances regularly.
Okay, but it ought to be clear that this should not take years.
I'm involved in projects maybe a third of this size, and the timelines are much tighter. It would take six months for a very complicated deal with multiple participants, removing subjects, etc. etc.
The size and complexity of this deal doesn't account for the timelines we are experiencing. So the question is what is the cause of this timeline?
It looks like lenders don't have a huge appetite for expediting this deal, or management can't anticipate the lenders requirements. Probably both. It's really discomforting that at this stage, I am not even sure what they will be trying to finance. MOP? SOP? Both? It's easy to imagine a scenario where changes keep pushing timelines out.
Haven't we been hearing that for years? How long does it take to get term sheets signed?
I don't think MOP gets financed anytime soon. Maybe SOP after management jumps through all of the hoops.
Production in 2014.
Surely you jest. This is repeated non-sense from the management. How are you supposed to take an article seriously when the milestones have been proved wrong? What's Richy say about all of this now? Whoops I was wrong?
You MUST take a sensible approach to a project like this. There's a great asset that will likely not be financed. In the event of financing, the SP will rocket. If financing doesn't occur for 5, 10, 15, 20 years, what do you have? What is it worth to investors?
I am into the wild game of penny stocks, but the eternal optimism of this board is delusional.
This is funny.
If you start filtering opinions to only show the cheer leaders do you think you'll have a balanced view of AAA? This stock isn't all good, and it's not on a one sided upward trajectory. There might be some benefit to facing that.
Thanks very much Ogi1. Just further to that, is this just from experience, or did you find a study somewhere?
I remember those insider buys, it's what actually got me looking at the stock.
There's As exercisable at $0.54 and Bs at $0.60, 6 months from issuance, bringing us to March 2017 if I remember correctly.
It should be in the disclosure notes of financials dated after the transaction. You could also dig it up on SEDAR.
I think someone was talking about resistance at $0.42 because of this. Am I missing something?
Has anyone figured out who the advisor is? Might give us some clues as to the advice they are giving.
I may be selling my trading portion in this one if we get over $0.40, looking to re-enter later.
Maybe not, but I'm not going to stop looking for it. Delays, or even a long period of no news, and we see lower SP.
We are dealing in stock of a small resource company. Do you not feel like the price is easily manipulated? Don't you think it could get that low again on another financing delay? Just saying it might be worthwhile to keep a few bucks in your back pocket in case we realize a lower SP scenario.
In any case good luck.
You'll get you chance. Think about how much time until financing/production we have. There will be volatility.
I'm planning to add more if we hit high 20s again. If not, I'll probably wait for shovels in the ground and full financing.
I can't believe I missed the MOP FEED suspension. Would please share where that info came from from?
The interesting thing for me was the comments about the equity raise.
Looks like that interview was in December.
Did I miss something? It sounds like he pretty much stuck to the script of early 2015 financing package.
So you've been able to reliably identify this in the price/volume data? Interesting if you can do it. I'm probably not personally capable of making money off of this, but thanks for info.
I've never bothered with these info packs, but I'm always interested in what people glean from them.
What exactly are you seeing?
What direction do you think it is going to go when there is no news at the meeting?
Positive news is going to have a big impact on SP, but I think we drift lower until it arrives.
Thoughts? What are the technical people saying? Is the chart indicating everyone is anticipating news?
Let's hope, I'm not feeling so great about the chances.
It may create an opportunity though. SP will surely drift if we are waiting for news.
Not me, I owned the shares I sold.
Not really sure what you are asking, but I'll take a whack at an answer:
I'm hoping to play the same January volatility mentioned previously. I sold some shares @ 0.31 because I believe I can pick them back up cheaper while we wait for news.
Are you saying your short?
Are you just upset that I see a lower SP in the future?
In any case, good luck.
Got my non-core holdings out @ 0.31. I'm hoping to pick more up at a lower cost, or maybe journal some ALLRF over depending on the difference and the USD feeling of the day.
Do you have a number in mind? I'm hoping for mid-twenties.
I'm not sure why some think that.
In my view, an insufficient offer would be positive. SP always rises, regardless of how (un)acceptable an offer is. I think that would relieve pressure on the capital raise I see on the horizon.
There appears to be enough resistance in the equity holders to avoid a bad deal. I actually hear a lot of people mention they think few are willing to accept a deal less than $1.50, more than I would pay at this point.
A sufficient offer would conclude SH business here and let them realize the value they have been anticipating. Game over, you win.
Just my point of view.
Consolidation is normal. A lot of these assets would be better served in the hands of organizations with deep pockets.
I'm looking past ICL for the time being. They raised some cash, but nothing that tells me an AAA buyout is coming.
Ya, at a glance, no remarkable news.
I agree that's not what they want.
My hope was that an offer would made and rejected around the $1.00 level. I want this to get the attention of the finance community so SP goes up. I want this sooner rather than later so the inevitable capital raise is low dilution and easy going.
You could get started without all your equity in, but it really depends on what the lenders will accept. My feeling is Allana will finance as much as possible.
They recently raised $800M. After their $450M acquisition and costs associated with the transaction that may leave room for a $0.90-$1.00/share Allana buyout. Doubting it at this point.
Per SEDAR:
Notice Date, Record Date for voting - Dec 12th
Date fixed for the Meeting - Jan 20th
I believe people read this as an indication that they would receive some information on the 12th for the 20th meeting and voting. I haven't seen anything.
There's some interim reporting that got posted on SEDAR. Other than that I haven't heard any information. The meeting is taking place on Jan 20th, the expectation was that information about it would come out today.
You might see more volume specifically today from people trying to get shares for the upcoming vote.
What do you think this pre-announcement drift (or lack of) might indicate?
I am speculating it is positive, but not remarkable news.
I find this pretty reasonable, a lot of people won't though.
The longer timelines are extended, the weaker the companies bargaining position. As a matter of probability I'd say that outcome has low chances of being realized.
Could be, at what price are you a buyer?