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I sold my million shares a moth ago, this dog will never fly. I have completed 8 certifications and are in the final stage of completing number 9. I have never seen such bunch of amateurs like this group. I know some of the guys and thought they were better, they have called me several times for advice.
I do not think BLTA will succeed with their certification until they run out of cash. This is my personal opinion and are only based on my experience with certifications.
BTW FAA will never allow proving runs before Emergency evacuation demonstration. that will never happen.
I have been following BLTA for some time and was for a million shares, I am totally out. Most unprofessional group I ever seen. or something else is taking place in the background.
Cash on hand.
Anyone know what BLTA's available cash are?
All Ferry flights are conducted under 14 CFR Part 91 so no Operating certificate would be required. This would be done under a straight private flight.
Gentlemen,
You are both wrong, FAA requires 100 hrs, this can be reduced with 25% if FAA agrees. During the proving runs if it is going well FAA will ask the operator to request a reduction in proving runs not to exceed 25% provided that all international, night and airport requirements are meet.
SO the correct answer is it is up to FAA.
I just started a certification for a new carrier, the initial letter was mailed in the FSDO in December, 30 days later I received a response from FAA, stating we got your letter (PASI) and accepted. We will get back to you when the certification team are ready to meet. (certification Team consists of the CPM, Maintenance, Avionics, Flight Ops)4 people. It took me 6 moths to get all 4 FAA inspectors together.
The point I am try to make is try to assemble 10 to 20 FAA inspectors for a Evac demo is a nightmare. BLTA have done a remarkable job so far, getting these guys together gives me confidence in the FSDO and the BLTA ops personal, the relationship must be very good to be able to schedule the events this close to each other.
Not true, ICAO regulation will apply, BLTA will provide Russian "FAA" with a copy of BLTA's FAA issued Operation Specification, Russia will issue Russian Ops Specs based on FAA's. This is a paper process that will take two three weeks.
Ryan air $15 per seat, lol 185 seat B737-800 = $2775 cost of the flight DOC $55,000 to visit US. I don't think they will be doing that for long
The company submits a plan for the table tops, FAA reviews the plan and if they find it acceptable it will be executed. The table tops are a simulation of the operation.
The proving runs are 99% a practical exercise of the table tops. The CPM (Certificate Project Manager) needs to put a check mark in a box to call it complete. During the proving runs FAA will simulate events that might take place during a normal flight.
Example: FAA Inspector gives the Captain a card that states "Number 3 Engine on Fire" The Captain needs to complete the event as per company guide lines, Check list, Emergency, diversion etc. These event can be anything from Engine fires to Hi-Jacking, passenger heart attack etc.
In the end everything is in the CPM hands, as long as he can put a checkmark in the box he is happy.
Proving flight are a practical demonstration of the table tops, basically from the theory (table tops) to "Prove" that the theory is correct. Usually this is a smooth seamless event, however sometimes it goes in the wrong direction, you need a very experienced crew when you do this.
FAA will have several specialists on board. Flight Operations Inspector to observe the flight procedures, Cabin specialist for cabin crew, Maintenance specialist for the mechanical problems that FAA will artificially create, Nav Specialist etc.
I don't think you know what you are talking about, I have done several of these event through my 30 yrs in aviation. You need to look up FSIM8900.1 so you can educate your self in the area of FAR 121 certification.
Each phase of a certification have certain requirements that the operator has to comply with. Evacuation & Ditching demonstration is one of them. FAA specifically call this a demonstration, the crew needs to Demonstrate their proficiency for those events. As for BLTA the crew has already demonstrate this, 2nd part which is concurrent with the crew demonstration is technical (i.e) slides, in this case the slides needs to work. FAA have already seen the crew in action and will not focus on the crew for the future demonstrations, FAA's main objective are going forward the slides, the crew have more leeway for their performance. FAA will not move forward until the completion of this event. I have personally spoke to the FAA inspector in charge of this event.
Just you understand, the " Mini Evac" is NOT a test it is a demonstration, it is not a PASS/FAIL event. it is a complete or incomplete, hence they can do this as many times as it takes.
2nd thing; the "Mini Evac" are already complete as for the crews performance, The incomplete event is based on third party (packing of the slides)performance NOT Baltia's. Although BLTA needs to demonstrate everything FAA will be primarily looking at the functions of the slides.
I guess there will me some future issues for the company that packs the slides.
I am not a pump and dump guy, I only state the facts give to me from an individual, whom makes the decision; APPROVE or DO OVER.
Partial EVAC Demonstration.
I just spoke to a government official that is very close to BLTA, He statement was very clear. The "mini evac" will be completed shortly, (within the next few days) and based on the crews performance they do not expect any issues, the emergency slide issue have been resolved with the supplier. Proving runs are expected to be a non event.
Order 8900.1, Vol. 3, Chap. 30, Sec. 1,
It is not a pass/Fail event it is a demonstration, they will keep demonstrating until everything works, it is all about a checkmark in a box for FAA
VOLUME 3 GENERAL TECHNICAL ADMINISTRATION
CHAPTER 30 EMERGENCY EVACUATION AND DITCHING DEMONSTRATIONS
Section 1 General
Afternoon LT, Do you know if the proving run test plan have been submitted and accepted by FAA. I spoke to one of the guys this morning and forgot to ask, He is down in FL just now.
That is 1000% true
I agree with you, $0.25 after certification are probably accurate. What will be interesting is the first quarter, (once in operation) what the earnings will show. If BLTA are at a break even or small profit there will be a massive hype and run on the PPS. I am holding until then. I think $2.00 plus is very realistic with good report.
What a crock of sh-t!
Youlie, You are basically right, the only thing left is "Demonstrations" The mini evac is a "Demonstration" until you get it right. Next on to proving runs. The proving runs are basically a demonstration, prove that you can operate the airline the way your manuals say you are going to do. Usually the problems are resolved during the table top exercise, proving flights are just a validation of the table tops.
The hard work is done, the easy part is left. I am buying another 500k shares tomorrow.
You are absolutely right. Many time when I have taxied out from the gate and the taxiway are slight uneven, it will twist the fuselage, if it very common that you receive door messages on your icas screen. It is the same when you have an uneven fuel load, it will twist the fuselage.
How many of those were section 121 passenger airlines? 3
How many of those were international airlines? 1
How many of those were starting a new route? all
How many of those included returning a 747 to service? 0
FAA have streamlined the process for all certifications and it is pretty much identical, from a 121 to a 145, however the regulatory compliances makes the 121 the hardest thing you can ever do. The gates are the same 1 through 5.
The cost I was referring to does not include the infrastructure of an airline ONLY the creation of the actual paper.
Hire a third party consultant to do the paper is a 18 to 24 months project, this is usually done by retired FAA inspectors, 10 guys working full time on the project. cost 1 to 2 million.
Selling that "paper" is worth around $1 million.
To do this "in-house" will take much longer due to lack of experience and you will have a less manpower doing the actual job.
Adding the infrastructure to the operation you are correct, millions...
I agree, BLTA are almost done, the hard part is behind them, they will be flying soon, I know the guys in the BLTA Flight Ops department, they are good, they know what they are doing.
I think this will be a success.
Read my statement again. I never used the word "Extensive" I just looked at historical date back to 1992. If that is correct or not who knows.
The average cost of a 121 certificate are around $1 million for a schedule and around $500k if you are a supplemental carrier (charter) Then there is a matter of supply and demand.
The money spent on a 121 schedule certification is about 1,5 mil
There are no data on this, the number are based on my experience and completion of 8 certifications.
That is so very true
Read post 31271. I only found what I found, You know very well that once the word is out there will be more emotional buying and the realistic PPS will no longer matter. There are so many "investors" out there that do not look at the market cap, Just look at the history of the IPO's from the tech side.
You have two types of investors A) the data driven, looking at realistic numbers and facts. B) The gambler that just buy because their buddy told them so and the stock is cheap.
Will it bring the PPS to $2.00 I would be happier than hell if it did, can it possibly but highly unlikely. Maybe after a few reverse splits.
Regardless it is a crap shoot.
I would agree with your assessment, as I stated before the available information is very limited, if you can find more comparisons would be great.
Future PPS.
I spent 1/2 a day looking over historical data, PPS for start up airlines. I went back to 1992.
There is very little useful information that can be used to compare to BLTA.
Lowest share price that I could find was a start up from 1992 at PPS of $2.00 after certification and it was the most comparable operation. Small with 3 airplanes.
I now think a $2.00 target price after certification is very realistic.
For you BLTA bashers; If you think BLTA is taking long just look up California Pacific Airline, they started their filing in 2009 and are not even close to fly.
PROJECTED PPS?
Gentlemen,Once BLTA are up and flying,(this is just matter of time) what would be a realistic projection based on facts and not emotional speculations, were do you see PPS 3 months after first revenue flight?
During the proving flights there will be the CPM, future Principal Operations Inspector, The Maintenance Inspector, Avionics Inspector, a Nav specialist, a cabin specialist.
Baltia will create a proving run plan that has to be approved by the certification team, if the plan hold during the proving run they can ask for a 20% reduction of hours.
The plan will contain every emergency scenario that you can imagine and replicate most of the table tops.
You are correct
First I do not need a source for this, all you need to do is look it up in FSIM 8900.
2nd I spoke to a senior manager and know what took place during the demonstration and what failed, and it was not the door.
They have not failed, The Evacuation is a DEMONSTRATION, it is not a pass fail, when you Demonstrate the partial evac you have two attempt, if the first one does not meet the requirements you have a 2nd chance, if that does not work you have to reschedule and do it again until you pass.
BLTA passed the evac demonstration, however it was a mechanical discrepancy that made FAA ask for a redo. Since they succeeded time and performance wise BLTA were allowed to move forward with the table tops.
Once the Mechanical issue is resolved there will be a redo of the Evac. This time it is more looking at the mechanical issue with the slides.
Mini Evac/ Partial evacuation.
The rules states that a carrier have two attempt, a mechanical failure does not count as an attempt. When BLTA conducted the first demonstration they were a few seconds short, for the 2nd demonstration a Flight Attendant had problems with a door, this counts as a mechanical and not a failure.
A mini Evac/Partial Evac demonstration is a timed event. The purpose is for the crew to demonstrate its ability to handle an evacuation in case of an emergency, in this case Flight Attendants.
There will be an FAA Inspector with each Flight Attendant and a few outside.
It appears that FAA did consider the mechanical interruption to be a non event since BLTA was allowed to continue with the table tops. Normally jumping ahead is a big no-no, unless the CPM (Certificate Project Manager) consider the evac hick up to be technically complete, the timed demonstration will be complied with when there are enough Inspectors available.
No they did not, the process starts when FAA accepts the PASI. I believe that is 3 yrs for BLTA, not bad for international operations.
I base the time of certification on my own experience, I have completed 8 certification so far. I am waiting for CSOP to start another certification in a few weeks.
For a domestic carrier you can easily expect 2 yrs. Eastern are using brand new airplanes, that makes it much easier since FAA does not have to go back years to review maintenance documentation.
For older airplanes all maintenance records, must be reviewed, older airplane longer it takes. for larger airplanes this would require more support from FAA for all checks, ie evacuation demonstrations.
For international carriers, this makes the situation even more cumbersome. All government employees must have state department approval, this is a so called blue passport and is not issued to all FAA inspectors. To conduct proving runs over water requires Navigational specialist to be on board, including Maintenance and Operations Inspectors.
In addition you are looking at close to 15,000 pages of documentation that needs to be produced, review and corrected prior FAA approval.
It is not easy.
C check is a maintenance inspection, based on aircraft flight time in hours or manufactures program. Eastern are using brand new airplanes so no C check is required.
The regional office does not matter, the process is when you file a PASI, that will go to Washington, the FAA CSOP team will assign an office to manage the certification, most of the time it will be within a geographical area of you PBO ( Principal Base of Operation) however that is not necessary true. The CSOP team in Washington can assign it to any office they want pending local work load and experience.
They would never assign a 121 certification to a small office that lack the experience.
The current BLTA management have what it takes, the initial group did not. At the initial filing FAA did not accept some of the individuals for the required positions, BLTA were actively recruiting for 2 yrs.
Not even close as a comparable.
the Mitsubishi is not even certified in the US and have several years to go before.
Eastern are a domestic carrier, B737 800NG good airplane good range max 185 seats. and 4 flight attendants.
Average certification time to get certified by FAA and DOT is 2 years.
Unfortunately that is incorrect, there are several carrier that have been certified under the new guidelines.
Freedom Airlines Domestic
Allegiant Domestic
Virgin America Domestic
EOS Airlines International ops
Max Jet International Ops
Orange Air Domestic
And I am sure that I messed a few.
What most people do not understand is the complexity to start an international airline. First of all the past 6 years, FAA have been severely understaffed and lacks the manpower to support a start up. Currently there are 1100 Aviation operators nation wide waiting for certification, everything from flight schools to Maintenance repair stations.
People talk about the so called Mini evac, you have to consider the logistical nightmare to schedule 18 government employees to meet at one location for a evac demonstration. Government employees that have no incentives to speed the process and do not care about the growth of the company or financial burden.
This is a massive undertaking.
Sec. 121.523 — Flight time limitations: Crew of three or more pilots and additional airmen as required.
(a) No certificate holder conducting supplemental operations may schedule an airman for flight deck duty as a flight engineer, or navigator in a crew of three or more pilots and additional airmen for a total of more than 12 hours during any 24 consecutive hours.
(b) Each certificate holder conducting supplemental operations shall schedule its flight hours to provide adequate rest periods on the ground for each airman who is away from his principal operations base. It shall also provide adequate sleeping quarters on the airplane whenever an airman is scheduled to be aloft as a flight crewmember for more than 12 hours during any 24 consecutive hours.
(c) No certificate holder conducting supplemental operations may schedule any flight crewmember to be on continuous duty for more than 30 hours. Such a crewmember is considered to be on continuous duty from the time he reports for duty until the time he is released from duty for a rest period of at least 10 hours on the ground. If a flight crewmember is on continuous duty for more than 24 hours (whether scheduled or not) duty any scheduled duty period, he must be given at least 16 hours for rest on the ground after completing the last flight scheduled for that scheduled duty period before being assigned any further flight duty.