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Anybody still following RGEN? I don't own any, but I still like to follow the stock.
It seems that any price under $3 is good, as it pops over $3 like a ball underwater when it gets in the 2's.
SILCF -
Nice little run up the last few days. A delayed reaction to the blockbuster earnings report released recently. Anybody else holding it and do you have a sell target price in mind?
SILCF -
Anybody know why the stock took such a dive near the close? I thought the earnings looked great.
Did they have a conference call or something that wasn't well received?
SHO List -
The SEC attempt to document "naked shorting" or "fail to deliver". Stocks on the SHO list have an abusive level of fail to deliver. Here is a good link for more info:
http://www.ncans.net/intro%20to%20naked%20short%20selling.htm
Here is another strange one for you:
I finally decide to put in a low-ball bid, GTC, on EPEX last night. I chose $20.15, a nickel higher than yesterday's low.
I just looked at EPEX quote, and see that it is over $22, but the low for the day is $20.16!
$(*&%#&$W!~!
Researcher SILCF
Thanks for your opinion...looks like SILCF is a good value microcap stock, with PE just around 10 based on last qtr's earnings.
SILCF -
Anybody know anything about this one? HWeb brought it to the board's attention several months ago. Hasn't moved much (which actually makes it look good in comparison to my larger investments).
I want to start pruning some of my smaller holdings, and I think SILCF might be one of them.
OT
NFI, like most REITs and MREITS, is in free fall. My net worth is taking a beating. They are also the targets of big hedge funds that naked short the stock to death (like ACAS a few years ago).
Still, I can't see a scenario other than a total US economy meltdown that will kill the company.
If you don't have a position, I'd start buying (I was buying under $30, because it seems like a steal below that price).
Maybe the FED will start hiking interest rates in 50bp increments...that must be spooking the market.
You are on the right track. Since NFI is a mortgage REIT, they hold mortgages in their portfolio. Not real estate. Therefore there is no depreciation expenses.
GAAP rules force them to expense expected loan losses up front. Taxable income (TI) only allows losses expensed as they actually occur. Another issue is the timing of the hedges/swaps they use to lock in their percentages.
The true earnings is between GAAP and TI, and the company often reports what it calls "core earnings". For the last few quarters, their "core earnings" have exceeded dividends, and if I'm not mistaken, the last quarter even the GAAP exceeded the dividend. As the portfolio matures and stops growing, eventually GAAP and TI will converge.
NFI definitely fits the "VALUE" category, but it isn't a "microcap". So I suppose this post is still OT.
OT OT OT
<As a REIT, they are required to pay out 90% of their earnings in dividends. I notice that their earnings are $4.26 and the payout is $5.60.>
This is precisely the reason that NFI is so undervalued. You are looking at GAAP earnings, when the dividend is based on taxable income (which is much higher). There is a saying in the MREIT world: "GAAP is CRAP"
MREITs are all being blown out of the water by the increasing interest rates. NFI is the baby being thrown out with the bath water. They will be one of the few REITs that will not cut their dividend. They can't, if they want to maintain REIT status and conform to IRS regulations. There is a lot more info on www.nfi-info.net.
OT NFI -
Got your private email asking about NFI. I can't answer a privately because I have a limited IHub account.
The short answer as to why NFI dividend is secure is because they must pay 90% of taxable income to maintain REIT status, and they just now finished paying off 2004 taxable income. They have the next 3-4 dividends in the bank now.
If this is all confusing, then check out www.nfi-info.net for more detailed explanations.
Not only do I follow NFI, it is the largest percentage holding in my portfolio.
It is much worse of a disaster to me than seeing the Eagles play like cr*p.
I wish I hadn't bought earlier this year so I'd have the money to buy now and get that juicy 20% dividend, which is almost a lock to be maintained for at least 2 years.
It's all about perspective.
For me, it sucked big time to see the Eagles play so horribly.
Us Iggles fans have to consider the very real possibility that the team is mediocre.
Something we haven't had to deal with in a long time.
<the instructor the loser or is it looser>
Loose rhymes with noose.
ASPN -
That was fast...I'm back to my full position in ASPN, my GTC order at $6.90 got filled.
I'll be buying EPEX soon.
Probably won't have any funds to rebuy RGEN, even though I think it is nearing extreme oversold/undervalued areas.
RGEN -
Anybody nibbling/buying now that it is under $3? I don't see any negative news besides an overall market decline.
Somebody give me a good reason not to buy at these prices...
ASPN
I bought back half the shares I sold at $10 at $7.80, will get the rest bought back at $6.90 if my GTC fills there. If it doesn't fill, I'm still happy.
Getting itchy to buy EPEX, but I'm stubborn, because I coulda bought it at $21 when I first saw it mentioned by Bobwins, so that is where my GTC order is.
CZE Choice Energy
I'm finally in. Paid 74cents.
Let's see the messages explaining how I overpaid :)
MSGI - RGEN
The chatter on this stock has died off completely. I never rebought. I think the problem is a doctor running the company and not a business man.
Are you still holding? Any changes in your attitude towards RGEN?
It does not appear to be the next VPHM.
It should be a benefit to existing trusts...law of supply and demand...supply will be limited.
But one has to keep a wary eye on government when they start tinkering. They could change the rules adversely on all trusts.
Canada freezing new trusts
For those of you investing in Canadian Royalty Trusts (CanRoys), you should read this article:
http://www.stockhouse.ca/news/cpnews.asp?newsid=5004707
Bobwins -
What percentage of your investing dollars are in the options? What's your comfort level?
EPEX -
Now up over $2 today. Why isn't Bobwins on here crowing?
It definitely has some momo. Of course, I never bought it, because Bobwins didn't twist my arm enough! :)
If you want the stock, put in a bid for $1.29. They finally filled me at that price. The delayed quote is 1.26 bid 1.282 ask.
Rival Energy -
I've had a GTC order in for $1.29 the last 2 days. They are dribbling shares to me today. Didn't get any yesterday.
While I don't expect an ASPN-like move, it is within reason to see a triple from these prices.
Wish I bought more at $1.18, the price Bobwins thought I overpaid. :)
<Stock has been rising from around a buck in mid August to today's close at 1.62.>
And to think you accused me of overpaying at $1.18 not even a week ago!
I didn't buy enough though :((
ASPN -
My GTC at $10 was hit yesterday. I only have 1K shares left, and I probably will never sell them.
When I sell most of my position, the stock is good for a 25% rise in the very near future.
EPEX -
I agree with your analysis, but not with the timing (for my taste). A research report was issued yesterday, with a new price target of $25. It has already had a very nice move from below $14 to $20.
The nat gas situation feels sorta bubbly to me right now, and I wouldn't be surprised if a short cooling off period were to occur.
I'm going to put in an order around $18.
The above are my own opinions and personal taste only, others may be momo traders, and EPEX could very well run up several more points from here.
I just enter RGYFK in the "Quote" box to get the latest quote. I don't remember if I saw a bid/ask or just the last trade. I'm sure this time next year we will both be happy to have bought at these prices.
I noticed that my best performers from hweb and bobwins are when stocks are priced near $1. Don't ask me why, but my biggest all time winners are MMRK, ASPN, DAAT and DLTO (which is now DFC).
When I put the bid in, the pink sheet price was $1.16. Usually I will place an order a few pennies above that. I did check stockhouse to get a canadian quote, and it was around $1.33.
I hold longer term on the Canadian stocks, and I've always made money on them, especially with dividends. I don't worry about paying a few extra cents when I decide to buy.
I remember being all pissed when I bought ASPN at $1.25 and then a month later it was below a $1. Ask me today how much I'm pissed. :))
RIVAL -
Didn't do a whole lot of DD on this one, but I bought anyway. Used Ameritrade, put in a limit order at $1.20, and it got filled almost immediately at $1.18. Surprised it could fill that quickly. Must mean they are getting Canadian stocks pretty well automated by now.
I didn't see a dividend for Rival...is there one?
RGEN -
Does anybody know if RGEN has any business-savvy high-level management? I don't want to get stuck in an endless wait for what should be a blockbluster situation due to CEO ineptitude.
RGEN question -
A big concern of mine is that the CEO is a doctor, and not a business man. I've held stocks that have had enormous potential (JMAR for one), but because the founder of the company is still at the helm, things don't materialize as they should.
I'm concerned that RGEN won't play their cards correctly in the various patent litigation and will end up with less than they should. A shrewd business man has a better chance to get it right.
Any one else have this concern?
If we get the mother of all recessions from these gas prices, we may see prices below $3. We need something to lower the demand side of the equation, because it sure looks like the supply side has no chance of keeping up.
SILCF
HWeb (or anybody), haven't heard much about this one. Do you think that because it is an Israeli company it isn't doing as well as it should?
When is the next quarterly due out?
TIA
I don't follow it either :)
It just seems too coincidental that a GTC order that is staring the MM in the face for the past week becomes the high of the day today.
I still want to own RGEN, maybe I'll put in an order at $3.44.
RGEN -
I had a weird situation happen today. It looks like the specialist/market maker jumped the stock up to $3.94 in order to capture my GTC order. I put that in over a week ago, figuring that I would make a clean 75c profit at that price.
I've seen people with stop loss orders complain when the market maker quickly drops the price to trigger them, but I haven't seen the reverse, where they quickly increase the price to trigger a sale.
My hunch is we're going to see a quick rise in RGEN stock price.
<Congratulations to any who bought more yesterday. I thought about it, but I'm not that smart.>
Whoever bought yesterday was merely lucky, or had inside information about the successful well.
Unless I'm mistaken, nobody can predict the future, therefore it is not a matter of intelligence if somebody bought yesterday.
Had there been no news, and the stock dropped today, would you have considered yourself smart that you didn't buy yesterday?
Still recommending RGEN? I'm still holding.
<If you are playing the value game, you are by definition, holding something that others don't think is very valuable. You are expecting that you have uncovered a mistake in pricing by the market. If you still think your research is correct, you should hold until the market corrects the mispricing.>
Has ASPN mispricing been corrected by the market? It is hard not to fall in love with a multi-bag winner. I already sold some and the rest of my shares are free, but that isn't a reason to keep holding if the market has corrected its mispricing mistake.