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I more than made up for getting in too early last year, by buying heavily in November-Jan. This could get outside VMC range before they even report. I like the fact they have Scientific Games backing them, which is a large lottery gaming company. Through the strong uptick over the past several months, this has become my second largest position.
Because of the amount of inane posts. Sure it's okay to post newsworthy information or celebrate occasionally when the stock goes up, but we don't need a running count of what is going on with the stock. We all use the internet and see the price movements. It just get's annoying when you look at the TRGD board and see "Oh there's a couple posts.", than you realize it's just senseless banter. Maybe a couple of times it's okay, but everyday!??
I agree w/ you rich-dd.
Please stop prettynpink.
RNO - sold out at 4.12 though tried getting out at 4.28 at the open. No luck there. Thanks for the recommendation I got a 60%+ move over the last several months. Trading it again is a possibility as there has been volatility on this one. Too bad it was only a small (4%) position. I tend to be concentrated and hold about 20 stocks.
LIM -
The valuation used for this offer seems fairly low as detailed in the excerpt from the Bloomberg article. When I think about it do I wait for a competing offer or just take the premium I'm being offered by the market now. Given Xstrata's underwhelming bid of 5.8% over prev. close and 16.5% prem over prev 30 days I think I may wait it out and see if a competing bid comes in. The floor is set at 18.5 so that's only a 4% loss from current levels or wait for a possible additional 10-20% on a counterbid. There's a lot of deal activity in the metals market so maybe another producer will bid given the lowball by Xstrata.
link - http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aGKRo71cRE5g&refer=home
The company's offer for LionOre is 5.38 times the Canadian company's earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, or Ebitda, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That compares with a ratio of 8.65 times Ebitda it paid when it bought Canada's Falconbridge Ltd. for $18 billion last September.
The offer for LionOre is ``not a sensational bid in that is doesn't offer much of a premium,'' Ian Henderson, who manages $3.6 billion in natural-resource assets for JPMorgan Asset Management in London, including Xstrata shares and as much as 2 percent of LionOre, said today by telephone. ``It may spur a counter bid.''
LIM - PE multiple.
Metals & Mining aggregate TTM PE multiple is approx. 8.83
LIM buyout TTM PE is 18.5/2.2268 = 8.31
LIM buyout Fwd PE based on consensus estimates 18.5/2.72 - 6.8
Anyone know where to get a aggregate industry fwd PE multiple based on consensus earnings?
Digitech - LIM
Unfortunately I don't have a list of PE multiples. I was just doing a quick analysis of takeover premium's. Something I'll look at over the next few days to decide if I should sell or wait for a better offer. Market seems to think a better offer is at hand with $19.06 current trade vs. $18.50 offer.
LIM - Various takeover premiums...
Xstrata takeover of LIM - 5.8% prem over prev. close and 16.5% prem over last 30 days.
Teck Cominco takeover of Inco - 20.1 % over prev. close and 27.8% over last 30 days
Freeport takeover of Phelps Dodge - 33% over prev close
Paladin takeover of Summit - 28% over prev close and 36%.9% over last 15 days
Quadra takeover of Equatorial - 32% over prev close
Harmony takeover of GoldFields - 29% over last 30 days.
"Acquisition looks cheap on consensus forecasts. Based on consensus earnings forecasts for $2.72 in earnings in 2007, Xstrata appear to be paying less than 6 times 2007E earnings per share," Fairclough said.
Link: http://ca.today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=businessNews&storyID=2007-03-26T095518Z_0....
LIM - Premium seems small. I'd like to check some previous takeovers to see if this is reasonable.
With a floor of CAD18.5 no harm in waiting out a better offer.
I've got takeover and prettynpink on ignore, but their post still hit the counter in my favorites causing me to click on TRGD.
takeover also sent me a pm telling me to stop hating, but i wouldn't have to hate if their posts contained something informative, or asked real questions.
Open mouth insert foot altus.
I've been in close to a year now. Too little time in a day to listen to their blather. This is my last rant on the topic.
Takeover & prettynpink need to find a private room.
Fidelity - price matching.
Anybody know if Fidelity price matches commission schedules with the likes of Etrade and Scottrade? They upgraded me to the gold ($8 commission) schedule, but I still get creamed in trades below $1 stock price. I had a 401k I converted to a roth following a job change. I asked for a price match and they bumped me up to gold from silver. They're execution is decent but not worth the commission charge. I use etrade primarily for below $1 stocks.
Yes I traded in and out of UTVG w/out a problem in my Fidelity acct.
I missed that filing. Guess that explains the recent sagging in price.
Bobwins - I remember about the increased capacity and agree about the margins. I was just unsure about there plan on distribution. THanks for clarifying. It looks like a hold for a while or possibly accumulate on further weakness.
On a side note, anyone know of a free service that delivers filings to your email inbox? thought i'd ask.
SUWN - anyone still following this. I'm pulling out the dregs from my portfolio today and placing them under observation. No news on their Only Sweet launch. There has been little said since the launch, I would think that they would say more. Are they in some sort of quiet period? It's been too quiet for me. I thought I got in cheap in the .5's, but who knows.
I was just on their website and I never noticed an article that listed "What's in Oprah's pantry." Apparently she uses stevia, unfortunately not the Only Sweet variety.
OSIIF on a protracted slide since the breakout. I bought in prior to earnings, but have watched it slide lower than my buy in price. Anyone think this will get cheaper? I've bought some more.
I think the 1Q earnings report will be a tell tale sign if they are making any progress to the guidance they provided several months ago. They haven't PR'd any substantial orders, but they did hint that a new state has ordered the game card product that will be delivered in the 2Q. Given no PR's it seems that the 1Q should be fairly quiet, unless the existing customers have placed additional orders. All speculation right now, but glad to see my P/L getting some nice support from this current move.
EGMI: You're very good at division. ;)
Unfortunately I can't do two things at once. That is reading and dividing at the same time...
Also instead of good news coming from the 10k, maybe we may expect good news in the form of announcements of new sales. Either or should provide support for increased stock price (duh!).
EGMI - I lost money on them last year, but rebought in the mid teens over the last several months. The forward guidance would make it a VMC if they ever achieve those results. I like the fact that they already had orders from Kansas and Iowa lotteries. Apparently these state lotteries have done very well selling these items and have sold out their game cards. The product was lottery card product of the year in 2006, so that's a great marketing sell for other lotteries that have not tried it. Having Scientific Games behind them also should help distribution. They claim that they have another order from a new state that should be shipping in the 2nd qtr of 2007. Still hard to determine how strong they can grow.
I found it interesting that preferred stock and warrant holders are registering to convert and sell their stock increasing float to 51mm. So we should have some choppy trading ahead. The 10k should be released fairly soon, so I'm speculating there is some good things in this 10k. I would find it harder to believe that they would convert and sell if they did not expect good news. Based on recent volumes and prices it would be very hard to exit from this position. There were some notable hedgefunds in this mix of financiers including Pequot, Sunrise and DKR. One other major question I have is the guidance based on 51mm or 26mm. Given that guidance was issued before the filing, maybe it was on 26mm. If it is based on the 51mm than this baby should fly.
Time will tell and time to do some more DD.
Anyone here looking at OPMR?
I had a small position and they blew out projected earnings of .04 with .23 on an adjusted basis for the quarter.
Seems like my 2 out of my 3 portfolio has reached correction status of more than -10% returns since peak.
Should have deleveraged a little sooner. I've been feeling uneasy all year. Amazing how liquidity dries up rather quickly in these VMC's. I unloaded some stocks that were still trading under 10 PE's, but still had to walk down the bid.
OSIIF - looks like another big block was dumped. Other than that the idea sounded interesting.
VPHM: While I did unload slightly more than half of my position today, I think this is great news for the future. I unloaded some at 18.08, 18.16 and 18.36. I will look to buy back in because Maribivir's trials have been very positive. I got burned by the OGD's comments and would love to see this get back to it's previous highs. I've bought anywhere from 6's to 20's. I believe the company said it is possible to get at least $200mm revs from this drug. That potential I do not believe is fully baked into the stock.
RLTR - Any TV can double as a computer monitor. YOu just need the right setup. With the new Windows Vista you can hookup a computer to a TV to play movies. I currently use Windows Media Center as a pseudo TIVO and can surf on the internet on my cathode ray TV. The new big screen LCD TV's are much better as monitors.
The quarters have been improving for the last year, but one thing I've noticed is historically for the 2nd qtr revs have been the lowest. Not sure if this has been due to some seasonality in the business.
VII - big question are the earnings sustainable? They certainly are volatile in terms of their earnings over the past few quarters. I bought some at 3.60 and just unloaded some at 6.80. Trailing twelve month earnings would be only .09 annually given the earnings volatility. Unless they follow this up w/ another similar quarter I was dubious of another big run. I may buy back in lower if the market let's me. Looking back for the last several years they have hit some rough spots, though if this is a turning point a run up is possible. I would believe they need another quarter to confirm the trend.
You're right. I actually knew that. I meant to talk about the annual earnings and quarterly earnings, but decided to keep the message short. In reality I just botched the message.
Well with the 1Q numbers due out soon I think there is a shot of taking out the yearly highs. I'd like to see revs of above $11.25mm and earnings without any charges. They were able to put through .07 last quarter excluding charges. These legal settlements are out of the way, so optically the earnings look better so far. I've got almost 60k shares riding on that possibility.
Nice little run we're having. Should have reloaded on the 10% of shares I unloaded @ 1.19 in the .8's, thought there was a chance we would hit .7's again.
Tried to short, but couldn't. Two weeks ago bought 70 contracts of the Jun 20 puts instead. Wrote some June 30 calls to offset the premium.
Potential for short squeeze, but think the squeezing's already done.
Wow, this one's come down from it's heights. Able to sell off a 1/3 position at 1.19. Will look to get back in if I can bring down my average cost.
Well at least we'll only have to wait about a month for the 10 Q to come out.
VPHM - I believe Vancocin was supposed to treat the more virulent strain of C-Diff that was fatal. I remember reading that a more virulent strain had developed and Vancocin was the effective treatment against this strain. I would think use of yogurt would be for the less lethal strain, considering it has no antibiotic effects. I wouldn't consider selling on the yogurt news.
Happy to be up over 25% the past month on this position. Thanks for the info on the board.
Still nothing? Looks like they'll wait until the very last minute.
while someone yanks our chain...
They're waiting until the last minute on these financials... I've been twiddling my thumbs all week.
After the analyst estimated the $6mm revenues from the officer's comments, that officer said something to the extent that he can't confirm the $6mm number, but he hopes his estimate is wrong. It seemed to be that he was hoping that the $6mm was conservatively wrong.
XNN - According to conf. call, one analyst postulated rev. in 2Q to be about $6mm. Officer of company said something like we expect a doubling of revenues, but I hope you're wrong. Gross margins on the new product are 60-70%. That's pretty substantial.
YPNT - Thanks for the clarification. I'll have to update my calendar. Got a little anxious and jumped the gun.