Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
I've been out of the loop for a while: Anyone know wtf is going on with Lamberth's court? Hasn't it been 10 months since the ruling? Is there an appeal I don't know about?
Dude, you do this shit every year and it's in such bad taste I can't even...
IIRC, it's at the discretion of the Director.
Hypothetically, JPS would need to vote in favor of conversion, though. Correct?
Kevin McCarthy is such a loser that he could barely convince his own party to make him speaker. The only thing the Republican Party has done right in the last seven years was voting against this guy 14 times in a row. Shame they fucked up on the 15th.
Thanks Kthomp, I always appreciate your detailed replies.
I own a small amount of commons as a lottery ticket in case some absurd recap scenario favors them. That said, the vast majority of my money is in JPS.
So the questions I'm really concerned with are:
A) Is FNMA at a disadvantage to FMCC because it isn't part of the class for the contract claims, or is it actually an advantage because when it's litigated in the future, they will likely be awarded prejudgment interest?
B) For JPS series, would it be worth converting my Freddie holdings to Fannie, because Fannie will likely be awarded prejudgment interest as a matter of law?
C) Since it isn't clear if the damages for the contract claims are based on the share price drop after the NWS, should we expect all JPS to receive the same payout regardless of price drop/coupon rate/par value? And if so, would it be more attractive to own the cheapest Fannie series possible, rather than the more liquid/higher rate FNMAS?
D) Is coupon rate even likely to matter in the future? Will it affect negotiations when the shares are redeemed (i.e. - higher rates get higher % of par), or are all series headed for the same place, because dividends are unlikely to resume?
Anyone have any more clarity on the ownership cutoff date? I have some FMCC shares I'd like to take a tax loss on, but I don't want to switch to FNMA just yet, because they aren't part of the class. Also trying not to wash trade.
"Stop, Stop! He's already Dead!"
I *personally* don't think it was as malicious as all that. At least not to start.
Paulson indicated that Russia was trying to convince China to dump F&F bonds together in 2008, which would have freaked out the market. So the takeover was more for the appearance of stability than for actual stability. After that, they walked into the companies and saw that the vast majority of their capital buffer was in DTA's rather than cash. Gov't got worried again--especially after the slew of bank failures--and made a bad accounting decision to write down the DTA's.
Only thing super questionable here was the deliberately punitive terms of the bailout agreement. No one other than AIG had to pay 10% dividends, and even they were able to negotiate their rate down. And of course, everything since 2012 with the NWS was basically malice. Gov't was planning on winding down the GSE's but couldn't come up with a plan. The reversal of the DTA's and positive earnings projections would have made it basically impossible to shutter them. So they lied and took all the money. Then they lied about lying about it for a decade.
What is this for again?
I'm usually on board with you, clarence, but I think this one's a pretty big stretch. I can't fathom how a restriction on stockholder dividends during conservatorship would have any impact on damages owed from litigation.
Perhaps this would be true for a settlement. It also might factor into any buyout/redemption of JPS. But I certainly don't see how F&F can skirt the damages from Lamberth, assuming it stands on appeal.
What the fuck is this shit? It's so much worse than a sarcastic quip; it's clearly an attempt to influence the jury.
I know it happened a long time ago, but I still wouldn't telegraph to foreign adversaries exactly how bad they could fuck the U.S. economy.
Not trying to generalize too broadly, but having men on the jury should help us this time.
Men tend to have more interest in finance, plus they are more skeptical of gov't overreach and can sympathize when someone tries to screw them out of their livelihoods.
I have to imagine that most of the redactions have to do with the fact that the Russians and Chinese were planning to dumb F&F bonds en masse. No?
Well the 80% dilution would be before any capital raise. So any additional private equity investment would be further dilutive. Unless you think the companies won't raise capital, P's may offer the better risk/reward.
Gov't looks pretty frantic here, tbh. This bodes well, but I hope Lamberth doesn't buy into their bullshit.
Lamberth's trial is concerned with breach of the implied covenant of good faith and fair dealing, which is inherent in every contract. Basically, it means each party will not do anything to unfairly interfere with the right of any other party to receive the benefits of the contract. Plaintiffs must show that FHFA acted arbitrarily or unreasonably in implementing the NWS, and in a way that frustrated shareholders expectations under the contract.
The plaintiffs hold F&F preferred shares, and Freddie commons.
Glen, I'll give you the benefit of the doubt and assume you were responding to someone else.
I'm usually on your team, lol.
Thanks for the info. Thought you meant 70% par, which I would have taken in a heartbeat. 70% haircut is ridiculous, IMO.
Just wondering where you're getting your closing prices from. I can't find the website I used last time, and some only go back ten years.
Can I ask what site you're getting your historical data from?
Based on the numbers I pulled--don't remember from where--FREJP and FMCKJ are almost identical in terms of % return in a damages scenario (relative to current share price). But FREJP has significant advantage in terms of overall profit if both ever return to par.
I don't have a comprehensive list, because I couldn't find a way to pull historical data reliably. Maybe someone else has.
I did do a few for series that I own, as well as some curious ones; I'll include a small list here.
Dude, really?
Point and figure charting has FNMAT hitting $1. That said, I think $1.25 is a good loading point.
Who wouldn't take a 20:1 return?
Couldn't help myseif; I bought a few more preferred shares today.
FMCKI trading 18:1 odds. Even a Lamberth win with limited damages would be 146% ROI.
Had some nice options plays this week that were completely negated by FNMAT getting blasted.
NGL, I'm a little frustrated. But like a true moron, I will buy more when it hits $1.
Tbf, we don't get to take the moral high ground just cuz we hopped into a sinking boat hoping it would start floating again. The people who were in it when it got blasted the first two times deserve damages more than we do.
And that's not to say we haven't put in time, research, money, etc. and taken on risk. But it was a gamble on the outcome, and we knew what we were getting into.
I don't agree with the court rulings or condone the government's behavior, and I'll gladly take any damages that come my way. But I'm not gonna pretend like I deserve them, cuz I'm not looking to be made whole, in the true sense of the word. I'm looking to be made better off, and hopefully by a factor of 15.
Can you be more explicit with what you expect to happen? Calhoun to FHFA Director and Sandra promoted? What happened to the rumors of Calhoun to Treasury?