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I'm tempted to buy some at .07. If we could just get some positive exposure, we could easily skyrocket from here.
I also bought some this AM at .097. I'm willing to hold for 6 months or so in anticipation of some new business. TELT is very seasonal and is certainly laying eggs of late, but I do think we'll see some improvements going forward. Risky, but at less than .10, it's worth a roll of the dice for a medium term hold.
It's really a re-hash of what had already been preliminarily announced (though still good news, obviously). I'm looking for more meaty news regarding progress with FDA in China and US. I know it's more longer term, but that's what's going to propel this stock to multiples of where it is today.
I hope to see increasing revenues in the next Quarterly. Q1 was not pretty, but I think Q2 will include some licensing revenues. What I want to see is product sales growth now that we've expanded our sales agreements, so I'm hopeful that Q2 will paint a much better picture than Q1.
I'm certainly enjoying the action today. It's nice to see all the shorts who tried to pile in last week and drive it below $5 end up unsuccessful. We may see weakness yet, but even with such a massive assault by shorties, we're closing in on 52 week highs.
I had a feeling VVUS wouldn't be approved for safety reasons. I had bought some VVUS at just under $13 expecting to get a run-up prior to PDUFA date, but was shaken out in the drop last month. There was no way I was holding VVUS into the panel though since it wasn't a novel drug and merely a combination of two existing drugs, both with moderate to severe side effects. Without a doubt VVUS had the best effacy, but it didn't seem to me that there was any chance of approval (though the vote was surprisingly close).
I'm still holding my sub $3 ARNA shares, and this one has a real shot at approval. In terms of effectiveness, it's certainly not in the same category as VVUS, but it meets the FDA endpoints and doesn't seem to have any serious side effects at all (slight improvement in diabetes and cardio).
Lesson learned from watching the VVUS drop though...I'll plan to sell most a few days prior to the panel review regardless of how I feel about the chances of approval. These stocks are lotteries, and that's not my typical investment style.
SLXCF - Uracyst will be a Company maker once it reaches FDA approval in the US (Agreement with Watson and currently in trials). It's already sold in Canada and Europe, and is highly touted by users such as on this thread: http://www.ic-network.org/forum/showthread.php?t=63718
I also pulled info. from the Cowen Healthcare Conference in March and put together a quick spreadsheet of Revenue potential (though I imagine my Direct Margin assumptions were weak at best):
Add the short-term $1.3m milestone payment coming from Watson now that they've secured the patent and I think Stellar has strong footing going forward.
I'm here, though I never got an answer on the status of the China FDA application yet. At this point I expect Stellar to gradually grow revenues as they partner with Distribution Companies and their products (Uracyst in particular) become more and more known by doctors/patients.
The big pay day will be if/when Watson gets Uracyst approved for the US, but that will certainly be a long term hold from here. I plan to hold and see if we don't get more recognition as our Revenues grow. Stellar certainly isn't a short-term play, but I think we'll reap the rewards in the future.
2 Things - The 35% off promotion doesn't seem to work once you add it to the checkout/cart. I wanted to try the sampler, and it rings up at $59 when I try to check out. Is there a promotion code?
Second, my wife's Uncle owns a chain of ShopRite supermarkets in NJ. While I'm not comfortable with providing his contact information directly, I would be willing to send him a Retail Solution presentation and Cheese Sampler. Either PM me or shoot me an e-mail at robhann@hotmail.com and we can discuss further.
Thanks for the update. I like the new launch, and think it's a great decision to provide an innovative product and pairing tool in the cheese category. It is definitely something unique that I hope customers will get excited for. The cheese clock idea coupled with increased penetration in major supermarkets will hopefully serve as a turning point. I think you've found an unserved opportunity in the cheese market.
Thanks for sharing. As a long-time shareholder (though not always by choice :), I wish you the best.
VVUS - Nice strength going into the CNBC special. I'm tempted to sell on the short-term hype, but still think it has more run before mid-July.
TELT - I doubled down at .30. I do think we'll see some better quarters from here, so I'm comfortable waiting 3-6 months to see those improvements.
Of course, I'm still sitting at a .55 average cost, so today's action really hurts.
VVUS - Thanks bbotcs. I agree with you and I actually just bought a few shares. Regardless of FDA outcome, I think we see a big pop here simply based on the 4 upcoming presentations, the upcoming CNBC special on weight loss (inside the laboratories of VVUS), the First Lady's obesity campaign, and simply the run-up to decision time by the FDA.
I think we could easily see $19 - $20 prior to any FDA decision. I just might cash out before D-Day :)
I hope so. the US certainly needs help with our obesity issues.
I think I'm more worried with topiramate than with phentermine. There was a note out about Vivus late last year from Cowen Group that claimed that Vivus failed to disclose that over 2% of patients treated with Qnexa had to drop out due to cognitive side effects such as forgetfulness and disturbance of attention. I guess 2% isn't a whole lot, but it kind of scares me when we talk about changes in cognitive function.
http://www.thestreet.com/story/10617872/vivus-analyst-in-obesity-drug-side-effect-spat.html
Honestly, I have no problem with VVUS and may even buy a few shares in anticipation of a run-up to July. I'm just not convinced enough to hold for FDA approval. It's definitely a high risk, high reward play.
VVUS - So how do you guys feel about their safety concerns? I think VVUS shares will rocket until their July PDUFA date, but I have a bad feeling that the FDA will delay or deny approval of VVUS for safety reasons. There are simply too many fears with Topiramate and Phentermine. Topiramate is currently approved as an anti-seizure medicine and has serious cognitive side effects and Phentermine has a checkered history and has currently limited use of 12 weeks (by FDA). I understand that by combining the two and reducing dosage that the hope is to significantly reduce side effects, but I'm a bit skeptical at this point.
There's no question that VVUS has a drug that can dramatically help to reduce weight. I'm just not sure that the safety profile will allow it to pass FDA muster.
I have no position in VVUS and am more intrigued by ARNA (though don't own shares...only a few options). It's just too risky of a play for me.
No, not yet. I sent an e-mail at about 2:30 yesterday, so I'll give them some more time.
The one thing that worries me a bit is the China FDA approval status. The verbiage has changed in the latest 10-Q (removing the "if"), but earlier Q's state the following:
"In September 2005, the Company entered into a licensing agreement with Shanghai Ya Jun Medical ("Shanghai") for the sale of Uracyst in China. All product specifications have been approved by the Chinese regulatory body (State Food and Drug Administration "SFDA") and the final document submission was delivered to the SFDA in June 2007. Although the Company anticipated this registration would have occurred in 2007, to-date such approval has not been granted. The Company has been in discussions with an associate of Shanghai in regards to regulatory documents that have been requested by the SFDA. At this time it is uncertain as to if or when approval will be received from the SFDA."
I just sent an e-mail to the Company, and I'd like to learn a little more about the hurdles they face with China State FDA approval since they filed for approval back in June 2007. I'd think that the recent Uracyst patent issued by China would portend the product getting approved, but I just can't find much discussion on the topic in my research...
Uracyst Revenue Estimates
I'm new to the board, but wanted to offer my own bar napkin math estimate for Uracyst based on the Cowen Healthcare Conference presentation on March 8th, 2010. I've basically taken the assumptions provided in that presentation and validated it to make sure it made sense to me.
Overall, the market share and total revenues for Stellar can be quite amazing. This will take considerable time with FDA approval and developing the right sales channels, but we should start to see signficant revenue increases already as the recent European licenses start generating sales. The kicker will obviously be when China and the US approve Uracyst. I have no idea on the China timeline, but Watson expects FDA approval by late 2012. Here are the numbers:
VVUS - I've been leaning more towards Arena's (ARNA) weight loss drug. It's certainly less effective, but seems to have a safer profile. ARNA has a single well tolerated drug called lorcaserin whereas VVUS combines two drugs (both with questionable profiles) in phentermine and topiramate.
I've got a small stake in each, but I just have a bad feeling about the FDA approval for VVUS since the FDA is much more concerned with safety than effectiveness.
Honestly, I hope they're both approved, but neither of these is a slam dunk, for sure.
It does seem like there is some volume and the 10Q is due any day, so maybe a few insiders have seen the numbers. Still, it's going to take some pretty impressive and eye-catching results to kick-start this one. It sounds like (in the last PR) that a lot of Holiday revenues were missed due to supply/inventory issues.
I'm still holding for the long-term, so am hopeful that we finally see some interest.
I sold on the spike. Today is simply a momo run, so I took my 30% profit. I will buy back, and expect it to move back closer to $1. I still like MRNA as a good speculative hold, but will certainly trade a portion of my position on spikes.
Unfortunately, probably not until the beginning of April. The good news is that the Q reported on will for Dec - Feb if I'm not mistaken. This should capture Christmas and Valentines revenues, so should show some strength.
Well, crap... I forgot that their Q is through Nov instead of Dec. Pretty ugly if you ask me. Then again, all the retail ramp-up happened in December, so there's not much we can gleam from the 10-Q other than sales were pretty stinky and profit margins shrinking.
I'm afraid that unless they simply went gang-busters in Dec, that Artisanal isn't going anywhere.
ESPH.ob - I was interested in this Co after your post, and started a position last week. It's now up 46% to date (thanks!), and there was a letter to shareholders out today that shows some good progress:
Ecosphere Technologies Issues Letter to Shareholders and ReportsRecord Operating Revenue for Its Fourth Quarter of 2009
Jan 12, 2010 07:55:28 (ET)
STUART, FL, Jan 12, 2010 (MARKETWIRE via COMTEX) -- Ecosphere Technologies, Inc. (ESPH, Trade ), a diversified water engineering and environmental services company, today releases a shareholder update and announces record fourth quarter revenue.
To our shareholders,
I'd like to take this opportunity to thank all of our shareholders and the investment community for your support this past year. We are very pleased with the milestones that were achieved in 2009 and we strongly believe that 2010 will be a great year for the Company and our investors. We will continue to expand our "Total Frac Water Management" services in the natural gas industry, both domestically and internationally, through our majority owned subsidiary Ecosphere Energy Services. We will also be developing strategic partnerships to deploy our Ecosphere Ozonix technology in a wide variety of industrial and municipal wastewater applications.
2009-2010 Milestones:
-- Formed and capitalized a new subsidiary named Ecosphere Energy
Services LLC (EES) to exclusively license and provide contract services for
the Ecosphere Ozonix technology for global energy applications.
-- Completed five (5) revenue producing "water recycling" pilot programs
to demonstrate our Ecosphere Ozonix technology to three (3) major natural
gas exploration and production companies operating in Oklahoma, Utah,
Arkansas, and Wyoming.
-- Our EES subsidiary secured two (2) long term service contracts with
Newfield Exploration and Southwestern Energy to provide our EcosFrac and
EcosBrine "Total Frac Water Management" services.
-- The Company completed the shipment of the first twelve EcosFrac EF600
units to our subsidiary EES on November 15, 2009 to begin the EES long term
services contract with Southwestern Energy to provide our EcosFrac services
to eliminate biocides in frac water.
-- EES completed five (5) biocide-free fracs at Southwestern Energy in
the month of December resulting in the highest month of operating revenues
in the Company's history.
-- The Company completed shipment of a second set of twelve EcosFrac
EF600 units to EES to service the Southwestern Energy contract on January
9, 2010.
-- The Company generated over $1,000,000 in revenue for its fourth
quarter ended 12/31/09, up 250% from $310,555 in its third quarter ended
9/30/09 and up 778% from its fourth quarter ended 12/31/08. Over $500,000
of the revenue was generated in December alone.
Moving into 2010 we are very excited about the acceptance of and demand for our Ecosphere Ozonix technology by major energy companies in the natural gas industry. The recent advancements in horizontal drilling techniques for unconventional shale plays using hydraulic water fracturing (fracing) has presented the United States with an unparalleled opportunity to decrease our dependency on foreign fossil fuels and will allow us to transition to a cleaner burning fuel. One of the major challenges facing this transition is that the hydraulic fracing process uses millions of gallons of water to fracture each well.
Our EcosFrac, EcosBrine, and EcosStim technologies enable natural gas exploration companies to eliminate biocides in their frac water and also recycle their flowback waters at the well site. This solves a major industry challenge and opens up an enormous opportunity for the Company worldwide. Given these facts, we are reaffirming our 2010 revenue guidance of $20 million.
Here are our primary goals for 2010:
-- Capture significant market share for our "Total Frac Water
Management" services within the Woodford, Fayetteville, Marcellus,
Haynesville, Eagle Ford, Bakken, and Barnett Shale's as well as the
emerging International shale plays.
-- Develop strategic relationships to advance our Ecosphere Ozonix
technology into other industrial and municipal waste water applications
domestically and internationally.
-- Prepare to move up to the NASDAQ or NYSE/AMEX exchange.
-- Increase our exposure within the brokerage community and to
institutional investors.
Again, I would like to thank all of our shareholders for their support and encourage everyone to visit our website at www.ecospheretech.com to keep up with the Company's progress.
Sincerely,
Dennis McGuire
Chief Executive Officer
opas60, I don't have a paid subscription so can't reply privately, but I have not been in contact with management. I also find it a bit discouraging that management isn't singing from the rafters any Holiday success stories.
We obviously won't know until the 10Q comes out, but I'm skeptical at this point.
I agree, not much progress made (overall) until December when they were able to stock product in Costco and some supermarkets (ShopRite, etc). The big question is whether simply getting their product in front of retail consumers is enough, or if the move fell on deaf ears.
I'm with you, if there's not a significant spike in revenues in the next Q, I'll close my tiny position as well.
Really, this next quarter is sort of a "do or die" quarter for Artisanal. The Company is finally making some progress in transitioning from a specialty store to more of a distribution network for their "branding". To get the product in supermarkets and wholesale chains is a giant step for Artisanal, but we're going to find out if it has a major effect on sales and margins. The premium cheese market isn't exactly a recession-proof niche, though having a retail presence for the Holiday's may be key.
Another negative is that the stock simply doesn't trade much at all, and is going to need a blockbuster quarter of earnings to get noticed. I'm hoping for the best and like the wild card potential, but I only have a minimal investment here. Still, with a good quarter, all it would take would be a few microcap boards/groups to pick up on the potential to give the stock a good pop.
I wait with bated breath :)
XOM Calls - I bought some too, so we'll see how it shakes out over the next few days. The markets tend to act irrationally during holiday weeks, so we'll see...
FR.to (First Majestic) - Looking good again today, up 10%. I still haven't seen any news...
NEIK...Yep...still holding in anticipation of a few big contract signings. I played phone tag with the CEO this past week (was interested in the PP opportunity), and he's still extremely excited for the large Lockheed contract and potentially many more as we move into the new year. These things always take more time to get inked than we expect, but I see Northstar as a nice, growing Co. I expect to see at least breakeven or even some earnings next Q. It's really moved from my .14 buy-in price and I imagine it will weaken a bit first, but I expect to see .50 within a few months (maybe sooner the way the volume/price has picked up lately)
CWBYF - What ever happened to the potential RTO with Colorep? Is there still some value here possibly?
Update from CEO (From Raginbull site):
We are making progress with our retail expansion. We now have shipped to 52 supermarkets and have 35 more to ship to in the next week or so. We have 14 more Costco locations to service from now through December 23, 2009.
Our web sales are picking up with the holidays, but we suspect will gain more increases as thousands of consumers start sampling and purchasing the Artisanal brand in stores. Historically, our only exposure was through premium restaurants and online. At a Costco location upwards of 1,000 people will sample our product each day. Supermarkets also add significant brand exposure.
Dan
NEIK has certainly been a winner for me thus far. I think this could be a good long-term hold, though being up 50% in the past 2 days makes me a bit anxious to lock in some profits. Still, the CEO is very confident with his relationship/contracts with Lockheed, etc, and the Co. certainly has some upside from here if they can continue the growth.
I agree, NEIK has the opportunity to grow itself into a big player here. But, it will need to happen in baby steps. The credit line will hopefully allow NEIK to expand a bit and build better profit margins. If we can continue to increase our backlog all the while slowly increasing workload and working capital, then we should be in good shape.
Easier said than done, but signing a few contracts should set the Co up to really start to grow. I just wish these promised additional contracts would get inked...
NEIK - There are certainly some potential positive developments here with the assumption that a few new contracts will be signed. If NEIK can ramp up production, increase margins, and add a few contracts, we could easily see a big jump in share price from here.
I'm still waiting on those promised contract signings first...
8-K Filed - Still tight on working capital, but the good news is that the road shows at Costco and the other supermarket launches are moving along as planned...
On November 13, 2009, the Company entered into a third forbearance agreement extending its working capital loan facility to February 15, 2010. As part of the extension agreement, the Company has determined that it will refinance the current line of credit with another third-party financing company. The Company will need a larger working capital facility to accommodate anticipated increases in inventory and accounts receivable from its recent launch of Artisanal Premium Cheeses into supermarket chains, specialty stores and mass merchandisers. The Company has already begun the process of submitting proposals to financing companies and intends to meet the February deadline.
This weekend marks the first of fifteen road show and market place shows that the Company will undertake by December 23, 2009 with mass merchandiser, Costco. Each show ranges from three to six consecutive days of selling in various Costco locations. Next week, the Company will start stocking supermarket stores owned by the chains D'Agostino and Shop-Rite and the following week stores owned by the chain King Kullen.
DMM - And, of course, I lightened up earlier this week on Dynasty. Still holding 3,000 shares, but I can kick myself for selling a few days before the mining law changes. Typical for me, I guess.
News Release Out (below) - Sounds like there are some interesting near-term deals that could bring attention to Northstar. I'm a bit amazed, though, that the CEO would comment on potential near-term contracts without actually having any signed. It seems like more of a PR "pump" to me. Either that or he's so confident in the near-term that he felt comfortable making predictions. Personally, I wouldn't want to put my Co. out on a limb with expectations unless the contracts were signed, but overall I take the PR as a positive and am excited about the future.
Northstar Electronics, Inc. (NEIK) CEO Provides Update and Future View
VANCOUVER, BC--(Marketwire - 11/02/09) - Northstar Electronics, Inc.'s (OTC.BB:NEIK - News) CEO, Dr. Wilson Russell, gives an update of recent company successes, expected near term contracts and a future view.
The key recent successes have been:
-- Winning a US$2.5M contract from L-3 Communications to manufacture control consoles for navy frigates.
-- Securing an expandable, US$800,000 Line of Credit, to increase production throughput on its Lockheed Martin Aeronautics, P-3 aircraft parts contract.
-- Achieving AS9100 certification, a 'gold' standard in aerospace manufacturing.
-- Expansion of the company's manufacturing affiliate base into Western Canada.
The key expected near term contracts are:
-- Multi-million dollar add-on to the company's P-3 contract with Lockheed Martin.
-- Bombardier contract valued at several million dollars to manufacture airplane door sets.
-- Multi-million dollar contract to manufacture parts for Lockheed Martin's advanced C130J 'Hercules' transport airplane.
-- Potential opportunities with Boeing and Raytheon.
This view of the future is based on what the Company sees as the current crossroads of significant opportunities that could propel it to a much larger market cap, corresponding stock price and, within 2-3 years, qualify for a major stock listing.
It certainly is a buy and hold stock since it's pretty impossible to exit with a large position. I feel pretty comfortable now with 50k shares at a .14 average. The important comment I gleamed from the 10/7 press release was from Terry McLeod (CEO of Northstar Network ~ the subsidiary) "He added that cost efficiencies, coupled with increased revenues from escalation of contact work, are expected to lead the company to profitability in the short term."
I think there are a couple of catalysts including profitability, contract announcements (hopefully new ones with Lockheed), and simple flexibility and growth ability due to the line of credit. Now we just need interest and volume...
I picked up some at .12 today. I'm hoping the drop is just one seller looking to quickly unload.
Nice play with the BIDU Calls. Its painting a new daily high as we speak. Congrats!