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Totally agree with value, there was short covering at the end of day but was done in a smart way in order to not triger more short covering and in turn esclates the SP. Hope the oil rebound contineus next week and SP follows, we might see a good rally.
Thanks Rule & hbk..
Rule, pls where you see detailed trading of the stock ?
As usuall this stock surprises me with its price movements. Somthe market is making a big rally almost every stock i have on my watch list is up 2-5% on average, and Peix is down! So someone metioned that it is sensetive to oil price that alided tody.. Ok what about oil companies itself... Amazingly most of them are up look at exxone, bp, chevron etc... So even oil copmanies are up! So what about ethanol price ... Also it went up today, so the normal question here what the f..k is wrong with this stock. Iam starting to lose hope and throw the towel and sell full position and jump in any other stock... I am fed up
If ethanol is exploding and corn is unchanged, how on earth is PEIX is down for two consecutive days for about 10% !!!
Also if ethanol itself did not respond badly to the EPA news, how on earth does PEIX respond this way???
I am out of my mind
Just took my final decision and sold now, this company is great but highly manipulated and the management is not helping either, they must have had at least one commercial contract with the announcment. I lost already 43% of the money invested. More than 50k thats alot for me. Can't take no more. Plus if you guys renember what i mentioned on the day of the announcment " the stock will fly then will drop in the next days" . Thats exactly what happened, i reget not selling on that day but i just gave it a try but seems its a lost battle, at leats for me. On the other hand,i may jump in if this stock goes back to $3-4 level, at keast will have 50% to the upside till $6 and tey to make up for my losses. I rest my case and good luck to all you wishing you the best.
Don't wanna look silly or negative but whats wrong with PEIX ?
Inhave been long in this stock about 10 months. First the stock was set to soar for Q1 results but surprise warrants just pop up to destroy the record earnings and turn it to negative after adjusted earnings. The for Q2 and Q3 we don't know what caused the earning to drop but probably the tradingof ethanol, then the stock gets hammered by unjustified ethanol peice drop then when ethanol prices start to go up again, here comes the EPA to punch etahnol again. Whats wrong its a series of bad luck or what? Will this stock rally and reach the fair value of $28-30 ever with no troubles.? Need your thoughts cause i startring to feel silly thinking this way.
Told you guys i smell something not normal, it has to do with RFS. Anyway If this is the EPA decision, it will be too bad for the stock price !!
No i didn't sell yet but my plan to sell tom. I read the news today sounds good but still had no effect on the stock if by tom i see no uptrend i will still sell.
Just as i told you guys yeaterday, play it safe, i think at 13.9 i will jump back in now saving 80 cents. Not bad trade at all. And from now on this is how i will this stock, try to use every dip to buy and every rally to sell untill it hopefuly reaches the 20 plus leve, then may change strategy there. Good luck to everyone ??
Ethanol futures are up 4.4% and Peix is down 4.8%!!!
Hahahahahahaha
One answer
Manipulation
Very nice post and i share with you a lot of your ideas and feelings toward the stock and i wished i sold half position at $23 exactly the same like you but practically speaking if you start to worry you should act immediatley, this is the lesson from the stock drop at $23 that i learned hard. I am not here to support and defend the stock, at the end its pure investment and i want to make money, i felt today that it may go back to $13.5 or even $13 as a result of the ethanol price fall, so why watch the stock price drop and then wait for two weeks to bounce back to today's level at $15.30, on the other hand if i sell position today and buy at $13 level i will v happy and make more money. While in case the stock doesn't drop and instead it bounces back tom or on friday i will jump back, in this case what i loose may be .25 or even .5 cents which is not a big deal but i feel more safe now.
In the short to meduim term i still agree with you that the stock prespective is v good and i value it around $28-30 but things do not go like this, in real world there are shorts and trades and a lot of manulipaltions and hidden plans and volatilty and a varierty of factors affecting the stock, as a very small investor i can't handle all this, so better play very safe.
Guys i don't wanna be negative here but if you remember my post from yesterday about my disexictement of the announcement that it does not include arevenue generating commercial contract with any pharma. And i mentioned that the stock will probably rally then go down as usual , this what exactly happened. I have been long once for more than a year. Now i am more than 40% down , i waited all this cause i beleive so much i. onve and the 3d printing concept but it seems thats not enough to make money with such management of the company and alot of traders and shorts manupilation. I think i am done here if i had invested my money in any other blueship i would have made a min of 20% or more. I will sell full posistion tomorrow which will bemy deadline for Onvo. Good luck guys. Cheers
I still don't get the massive drop in ethanol prices, reagrdless of corn price drop, take into conciderarion corn dropped 2.5% while ethanol now is 4.8% for spot and 7.2% for dec futures. The drop cannot be related to corn only since ethanol drop is so huge. I smell something not good here. May be something related to EPA decision. I took my precaution amd sold full position and left only the options because the price gap between bid/ask is so wide.p and if i sell market i will loose a big amount.
In my vision i remember and see the same day when Peix dropped from 23.2 to 21 in one session and we didn't know the reason till it reached 15. Anyway Take Care guys the volatility can be very rough here. Cheers
Whats going on with ethanol prices!! Spot is down 3.5% and futures are down 4.6%. Why is that massive drop and how come it has no effect on ethanol stock prices ?
Totally agree with what you said but whats different this time is that the increase in stock price is not so dramatic in one day so i have this inner feeling that it might be a good indicator just if the stock continues to raally tomorrow with a good volume that might lead us to a series of stock rallies in the next few days and we may see the $9-10 level by next week. Tomorrow is a very critical day for the stock price. Also we need a commercial contract from a big pharma to back this announcement as soon as possible or it will be worthless. Go ONVO
You will not see a short squeeze here since the shorts have done their role succussfully last week. They brought the stock down from $7.2 till $6.2 last week in order to be ready if there is announcment regarding onvo product so they already covered partially at low prices and also when the news is here the stock is up 11% till $6.85 instead of what it should have been trading aroung $8.5 today.
I am not so excited with the news since they did not mention any contracts with clients, they only announced the availability of commercial release, this does not prive the concept success on commercial basis, i am not sure how the market will respond to the news. Stock will probably fly high at the begining but i am afraid that afterwards it will drop again since there is no commercial revenue from this announcment so far. I would have loved if the announcment included even one contract with any of the top pharmas.
BREAKING NEWS!
Organovo - Organovo Announces Commercial Release of the exVive3Dâ„¢ Human Liver Tissue
My deadline with this stock is end of next week, if they don't deliver the product, i will through the towel. I've been long ONVO for 16 months now and at current stock price i lost almost 40% of the money I invested in, so enough is enough.
With the current ethanol/corn prices, Peix is set to explode !!!
Still looking forward to $15.5 this week. Go PEIX.
I was thinking about the same thing since yesterday, ethanol margings are so high now that for example Peix should be trading around $18 in addition to the positive outlook from the CC and also all the outperforming analysts rating and price target of $26. But also we have to keep in mind that a lot of perple trading ethanol stock do not dig deep in the margin and corn prices they just deal with ethanol as an energy product similar to oil and that would explain why ethanol stock prices are so much affected with the severe drop in oil prices. I personally didn't know that much about ethanol and all factors affecting it when i first bought Peix last year.
Totally agree with you, the real test will be the $15.5-16 level, hope the stock can break it as its the most strong resistance point for peix and the last resort for shorts.
On the contrary, i beleive we will test the $15.5 level this week.
Wow.. After hours vol of 249k !
I think the sales news will be announced on the 24th nov. But if there is no news or if the company announces that it will start commercial operations only without declaring any sales agreements that will drive the stock to the $2-3. On the other hand if sales are reported this month will might see the the $11-12 level.
Cheers,
Go ONVO !
If all factors continue to be in our favor (corn, ethanol and oil prices) i believe that the $16 will be reached next week. As i mentioned ealrier technically speaking, if the stock price reached over $ 14 and stayed there which happened yesterday and today, we will see the next resistance piont at $16. This is a very tough piont as if we break it we will go to the $18.5 - 19 directly. Hope there are no surprices next week. Go PEIX !
Actually all companies are now in the red zone disregarding ethanol prices jump of 5%. Doesn't make any sense to me unless there is something i am missing out here.
Ethanol prices are flying and in thrm crush margins should be much better but why all this is not reflected in ethanol companies stock prices ???
Today Shorts are doing their best to bring the stock price down, but i beleive they won't be able to make it.
Stock was flying at the begining of the session till $14.77 then they hammered it till $13.86 and trying to keep it at the 14-14.20 level but now after ethanol prices went up and corn going down (rex & gpre responded normally and both went up about 1%) they will be helpless soon plus i mentioned last week that technicaly speaking if Peix breaks the 13 resistance level and stays above for one or two sessions we meet the shorts at $15.5 or 16 which is the next resistance level. Maybe $15 today before end of session.
GO Peix...
Btw, technicaly speaking if the stock breaks the $13 resistance piont today or early next week, we meet at $15.5/16 level. IMO This mainly depends on the following:
1. Manupilation: War between shorts vs peix stock maker (who bought yesterday large volume)
2. crush margins: ethanol and corn prices
3. Oil prices
4. Ethanol inventory
5. EPA decision regarding RFS biofuel quota
Its now crystal clear that although investing is PEIX is very risky and the there is a lot of volatility, manupilation and external factors affecting the stock price and the industry as a whole, i still beleive in PEIX and will always be long. Viva PEIX
Cheers
Also i don't understand how the stock performed yesterday, first the shorts hammered it from 12.8 till 10.6 with very heavy volume of 800k shares then the stock absorbed all this dumping and turned around by end of day to close at 12.7 with 4.4 million shares a volume i haven't seen in a while in Peix. So who is buying with heavy volume after the unpleasent earning report and all the crazy selling at the begining of the session. Of course someone/group with inside info and has positive data that will be taking the share price to higher level due to unknown info to most of us !
CONSPIRACY THEORY...
I am still trying to figure out how Peix did not make record earning release the last three quarters taking into concideration the historical crush margings and i have this inner fealing that each quarter no matter what the crush margins were favorable, the company released weak eps for some reason that kept the share price under certian levels, actually out of the last 18 quarters, 15 quarters the share price dropped after release.
After management announced yesterday in the conference call that it will concider share buy back program, i thick this may be the game here. Keeping the share price low and the compny seems underperforming to many traders/shareholders, they start to sell at low prices, company annouces share buy back program nextq or even q1 2015 at relatively very low share price, then the company announces record earnings and guess what, the share price will rocket to $30 plus and the most beneficial of this senario is..pls read below carfuly
Quote from wiki invest
Share repurchases are an alternative to dividends. When a company repurchases its own shares, it reduces the number of shares held by the public. The reduction of the float,[6] or publicly traded shares, means that even if profits remain the same, the earnings per share increase. Repurchasing shares when a company's share price is undervalued benefits non-selling shareholders (frequently insiders) and extracts value from shareholders who sell. There is strong evidence that companies are able to profitably repurchase shares when the company is widely held by retail investors who are unsophisticated (e.g., small investors) and more likely to sell their shares to the company when those shares are undervalued.[3]
So why the stock is down 11% if it beats analysts estimates ?
Well, stock already down 8.5% after hours. Hope that tomorrow the shorts don't manipulate the stock and bring it down 20% till $9 or so. Why this company always turn us down with bad surprises against all expectation, something doesn't smell good here.
Why good news for PEIX ?
Why are ethanol prices falling sharply 3.5% ?
Why did all ethanol companies turn red all if a sudden and peix wiped all day gain of 8%. is there any breaking news ???